Granted you make a good point about different kinds of people and that some people will gravitate towards something with governmental backing, legitimacy, security... or whatever...

Now, if we are getting into the idea of a global currency, that is another story.. and likely a story of last ditch desperation rather than meaningful intent.  Countries like the USA are NOT going to agree to a global currency.. unless they have to and they see NO other choice, and only then would such choice be kicking and screaming or b/c they have some special ability to manipulate it...

I don't really know what it takes to draw lines but I see predictions all over the place depending on the starting point and which points are considered to be significant in establishing the angle(s).  So, do you have a graph that shows number of active wallets within the past 24 hours, 1 or 2 years?

Mooncake... Is your point that people could gravitate over to an IMF -type coint.. yeah right.. no one is really going to have confidence in any government sponsored coin... so they would definitely have to be manipulative,  tricky and coercive in order to get people to adopt it.. but NO real people are really gonna trust it.. so bitcoin will still win over some kind of government sponsored alt coin.

YOU are still making sense though.. .Just dont fall asleep on the SELL, SELL, SELL button - b/c then we will all be in trouble.   

Even though you are all over the place with your prediction, I am feeling it to some extent.  My ranges would have been a little more narrow... but generally an upward trajectory.. I doubt that we are going to have as many crazy ass wild swings once bitcoin is more established and once it has a larger market cap... but we may be in for a few heavy duty challenges that will truly attempt to undermine the whole thing, along with prices going down to accompany such attacks on bitcoin.

Actually, I agree with some kind of a priceline similar to the graph that you provided, and I suppose my long-term bullish sentiment regarding bitcoin is why I got in when and how I did. 

I had heard about bitcoin, but I had NOT really given it very much thought, so I did NOT really know details. 

Then in about early to mid November 2013, I had gotten into an investment and quasi-political discussion with someone who had bought about 60 or so bitcoins when the price was $30.  He was bragging to some extent about how smart of an investment bitcoin was, and that I needed to hedge against the dollar.  Actually, some of his understandings about investments seemed to be misplaced but he was very passionate about bitcoin.  I knew that my current investment portfolio was in need of hedging regarding the dollar.. 

While he continued to brag about that the fact that bitcoin had gone up so much that it was going to continue to go up.  I certainly took those kinds of claims with a grain of salt b/c I have this sense that if something has been going up a lot, then that may NOT be a good time to invest in that particular asset class. 

Therefore, I began to read up on bitcoin over the next couple of weeks.. while the price was continuing to go up.  That is why I ended up buying in the end of November, but I was convinced that the fundamentals of bitcoin was making it a good investment from the materials I had been reading, but I was NOT necessarily convinced that it would be a good short-term investment.. in the end of November 2013...   

That is why I started my exploration of BTC with only $1,500 off of localbitcoins.com, which at the time was about 1.24 BTC... and little by little from there on.. even though I had more than $20K that I could have invested, I did NOT want to put in my total fiat at that time.... b/c at that point, I was still trying to learn about the buying and selling vehicles process, as well... and I was skeptical about getting into something too heavily that had just had an amazing run in November 2013.

Maybe as soon as one or two weeks, we will be in the $700 territory, again... .. but yes it is possible that we could linger in these lower numbers for weeks or even months.. due to the little amount of money that is needed to manipulate such a segment with such a small market cap... BTC is only at 7 billion currently... and probably less than 10% of that is being traded or otherwise actively used.

I think that such a succession will NOT be planned, as your hypothetical seems to suggest; however, I think that we would see it coming in such a way that we would be able to transfer our BTC assets from BTC into the new coin... without taking too heavy of a beating.. unless we wait too long before we were to accept such transition that ends up being inevitable .. and some people see the writing on the wall early and others are more difficult to convince.. and still have their my space accounts...

I had to get a really big chuckle out of this post... I am NOT sure why.. but maybe it was your avatar or maybe it was the seriousness of your unsubstantiated prediction...  ...  If you choose your time frame from beginning of December 2013... then yes of course.. and you will be correct for quite a while to selectively and arbitrary choose that as your starting point... .. it is like a straw man assertion... from a dogbird... no hating..... 

Hey Adam... I appreciate that you get fairly specific in your outlandish comments... and largely, I agree with a lot of the sentiments of your projections and my agreement is NOT merely ditto, ditto.. but also b/c I have been doing quite a bit of reading about this bitcoin thing-a-ma-jiggy.   

Anyhow, what would you estimate some of the range of the BTC market cap possibilities would be in the 1 year, 2 year, 5 year and 10 year time-frames.    Ultimately, I am curious about how you would frame your projections.... and we are just shooting the shit here... but if you could give me your best projections, I would appreciate it.  If you are reluctant, I could go first.....  but you seem to be more experienced with bitcoin than me.. at least you've been into it longer than me...   

By the way, I did pull the trigger at $550.19..... so  I can now relax for a week or two... unless we start getting in the $525-$530 range, then I will be itching to buy again (I really do NOT expect that low price, but I did NOT expect to be below $600, either).

Actually, in the big picture you are probably correct that a few dollars here and there will NOT matter too much, when we get into the bigger numbers (well that is assuming we are going to get into those bigger numbers), and that is part of the problem with mulling over the situation.. It's time-consuming.. and maybe for naught... .... Currently, I am trying to bring my average buy-in price down.. and I just like to set my numbers ahead of time so that I guide and pace myself.. within my budget and attempting to maximize getting quantity BTC.. but hedging my risk to the best that I can...... b/c I want to buy while I have a chance, but I also want to save some fiat in the event that the price goes down an additional $20-30 more....

Maybe i am a little more nervous about this whole thing, also, b/c my initial starting buy-in price was $1,200.. and the price has been downwardly trajectory since i started, and I have been ratcheting my numbers, ever since I started to try to bring down my average buy-in price, within my budget.... If I had NOT started at the ATH, my situation would be much better and likely being closer to being in the black, rather than being in the red. Currently, I am at an average $682 buy in price.... which is much more comfortable than a $1,200 average buy in price... that's for sure.

When I saw Coinbase was hovering around $557, I thought, oh shit, it is getting down close to my next BTC buy-in price (which is currently meant  to be below $550 - b/c the last time I bought was at $584).  So I was playing around with typing in random quantities of BTC to their site just to allow the BTC prices to reload, and then the box flashed $551; however, my desired quantity of BTC was NOT ready to go or I would have clicked buy.  Then i corrected the proper quantity, and the price reverted to $558.27...  so I did NOT buy.

Sometimes, I would just like to get it over with and to just buy.. so that I do NOT have to think about these kinds of matters anymore , until the price drops to my next buy-in point (which would probably be around $529 - depending upon how long it takes to get there... seems doubtful, though... )... And so sometimes I will buy at a few extra dollars per BTC, just to get the purchase out of the way.

I have found the price on Bitstamp to usually be a few dollars above Coinbase, yet, generally, Coinbase's price does NOT fluctuate as widely as Bitstamp.  I complained to them once about this and accused them of arbitrage.. something like that.... Anyhow,  every once in a while when BTC price is very eradic, then Coinbase will be less than Bitstamp... Go figure!!!

 It would be NICE if Coinbase would allow for the placement of ORDERs, but I suppose that may cause additional technical difficulties for their set-up.

Ok.. so now the Coinbase price is hovering between $552 and $556 while the Bitstamp's hovering between $552 and $548... Seems like, if I were to wait it out, we are going to get down to $549 on Coinbase.. Not sure if I can wait that long... .  My frequent problem, however, is as soon as I click buy, then the price really starts to go down and then I am kicking myself for NOT waiting it out a little longer... Can never tell for sure.. how low will she go??? limbo...land... ?

Actually, you have a very good point.... b/c it is a lot easier to learn from someone who backs up his/her claims (even if we may NOT agree with those claims) rather than someone who is just spewing conclusions without any justification for how come s/he arrived at such conclusion(s).

There was a bet earlier in this thread for .5BTC about btc going to below $530 within the week. 

From your comment, I can see which side of that bet you would be on.... but then my question to you, is would you bet on the level of your passion and confidence? 

Personally, I am NOT that certain about anything when it comes to BTC prices, especially in the short term. 

IN the long term I am gambling that BTC prices going to go up in value more than it goes down, and accordingly, I am hoping to some extent that I will be able to make more money by investing in BTC than I would make if I were to put that same money into various stock market index funds... generally on stock market index funds with dollar cost averaging I have been making 3 to 10% per year.. overall.. maybe an average of around 6%.. yet I know if some people are smart about their stocks, and they can do much better than 6%.

With BTC, I am happy with any profit, or even breaking even, yet I would be more happy if I am able to achieve a greater return than what I would have gotten through my traditional index funds.

OM f'in G!!!!!!  Are you suggesting some level of redistribution of wealth?  OM f'in G, this will mean the end of the world as we know it, no?

Actually, I am NOT very worried about redistribution of wealth b/c I  get the sense that the rich always figure out ways to manipulate and co-opt various innovations and institutions in order that there is NOT too much redistribution of wealth and historical inequities continue.  The same is likely to be true with bitcoin - b/c even the traditional rich, once they recognize value in btc, are going to find ways to profit off of btc disproportionately to regular joe schmoes.  At the same time, various innovations play out differently, and I suspect that there may be some ways that the dynamics in bitcoin will play out a bit differently (but NOT to a large degree), and some redistribution of wealth is going to take place, in spite of status quo rich manipulations that will occur... and likely already have been occurring, to some degree. 

Also, I suspect that the status quo rich are going to attempt to drag out status quo systems as long as they can in order to continue to be able to continue to exploit poor people around the world for as long as they can get away with it.

Richy_T:  I like your straight-forward explanation of how a ponzi scheme is different from other kinds of investments... and yes, with a Ponzi scheme.. the payout is so high that the remainder of the investment pool is continuing to go further in the red b/c the payouts are so high and the money in the system is NOT working b/c it is NOT being invested nor earning.   

With bitcoin, there is a certain need to expand the number of users at least at the rate of the new coin production (which is currently a little more than 10% per year), and the value of BTC would likely become more stagnant if the pool of people in BTC remained at a set amount (let's say 100,000 plus 10% per year).  But even in that scenario of a stagnant user base, bitcoin would increase in value relative to fiat b/c the fiat is continuing to become less valuable and infrastructure is continuing to be built around BTC. 

Definitely, I'm gonna have to use your straight-forward explanation when that Ponzi term is thrown around willy-nilly to attempt to apply, when it does NOT.

There is a certain level of reality that is helpful to perpetuate the Ponzi scheme myth for btc - including the fact that there are currently about 10% more coins every year, for the next few years, until that production rate is reduced again in 2017, right?  Also, the value of bitcoin goes up more, if the user base expands more rapidly than 10% per year, but those facts does NOT make BTC a ponzi scheme merely b/c of the facts that the expansion of the user base causes increasing appreciation in how much btc users will be willing to pay for bitcoins.

YOU are really prone to exaggeration.  Let's assume for the sake of argument, that 100,000 people own all of the bitcoins in the world.. so what???  either they have an infrastructure that is a circle of 100,000 people or they expand to the 7 billion people.. and then once they expand to the 7 billion, then those 7 billion will have some btc, too, no?  So where is the problem, exactly?  profit of the 100,000? 

I figured that you got the joke... b/c you came in to the conversation later.. and did not initially raise it... but only brought it up after the further posts...

Podyx is probably laughing his ass off to get such an effect from a silly ass picture...

Part of my point was that the joker, Podyx, was being imprecise in some parts and then precise in other parts as part of the joke.. .so when we try to call him on the technicalities or to quibble about the various technical mistakes, then we become part of the joke.. b/c we did NOT get it.. he was exaggerating to make various humorous points..   Whether we appreciate Podyx's humor or not.

You are speculating again a lot with your facts, b/c the story about the missing bitcoins is still developing regarding GOX.  But let's assume for the sake of argument that 10% of bitcoins, at some point was acquired by criminals.  Does this assumption also mean that they are still holding those 10%, or have they already liquidated all or some of those holdings?  I would imagine that criminals do want to profit at some point, while they are still living, so just holding onto bitcoins is NOT going to do them any good.  But even if they do hold the bitcoins, so what?  Are they going to manipulate the bitcoin market with that 10%..?  What is the fear exactly?  Holding 10% does NOT give them any special power over bitcoin, except in a world where you are speculating about some plot that they may have to undermine bitcoin rather than to merely make some money off of bitcoin. 

If the thieves already got away with the money, then so what?   We cannot catch them, they have crossed the border to mexico.. or whereever... and they are free... Same with dollars.. if the bank robbers got away, and they are living in the bahamas and sipping Pina colatas, then what can you do, you do not have the evidence... that does not undermine bitcoin, if they already got away.

You are right about the picture saying "this year" which is ambiguous and accordingly needs to be understood in context.  Also, the text of the picture seems to be an exaggeration and quite less than specific b/c it does NOT exactly describe from when it is measuring.  Nonetheless, in order to understand the overall point of the picture, then it would need to be read as within the past year... b/c if you look at only this calendar year, then you get something like $720 to $560 - which is nearly negative 30%.... .. not an increase, but a decrease

Then in March of 2013... BTC price went from $30 to $100, so depending upon which measuring point is going to give varying statistics.  I doubt that the text of the picture was attempting to be accurate in that regard, and certainly, I would have phrased it differently had I been the author.  But the nature of a joke sometimes is to exaggerate and to make fun of specifics... like to give such exact percentage numbers without providing an exact measuring time (and hour and minute)