Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Monday March 24Prediction valid for: Monday 2014-03-24, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3316 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 541 USD.
The red and green strokes are actual hourly prices (Huobi on the left, Bitstamp on the right). The olive-gray vertical band was inserted to fill 2 hours that are missing in bitcoinwisdom's plot. The magenta square at right is the above prediction. The blue square next to it is the last prediction (see below). The light blue-gray squares are the older predictions. The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. On the Huobi plot, the size of the Albertosaurus under each dot indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = V
h/V
d, where V
h is Huobi's mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V
d is Huobi's daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date. The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater. The size of each blue dot (on both plots) is proportional to its reliability weight, computed from Huobi's ratio S. The brown lines on Huobi's plot are trends fitted
a posteriori to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the Huobi prediction above.
The trend assumed for the above prediction is the same as used for the last prediction, namely a shifted exponential A + B*Q**(d-d0), where d is the day of the month, d0 = 19, A = 2685.90, B = 1061.64, Q = 0.901. The values of A and B were fitted by weighted least squares to the points Mar/19--22. (It may have been more correct to include today's Slumber Point Mar/23 in the least squares fitting, but the weight 0.573 computed from its S ratio (5.278) does not does not account for the disruptive effect of the DDOS attack which put the site offline for 4 hours, 01--04 pm local time.)
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.15 CNY/USD (it was 6.09, 6.20, 6.15 at the last 3 Slumber Times).
Checking the previous predictionPrediction was posted on: Saturday 2014-03-22, 23:46 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-03-23, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~19 hours later)
Huobi's predicted price: 3386 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3469 CNY
Error: 83 CNY (~14 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 551 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 566 USD
Error: 15 USD
NOTE: "Tomorrow the price will be the same as today" may be the most accurate predictor one can get.
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