Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I'm kind of on the fence about buying any right now. Should I? At current price, it'd take me 2 months to buy 1 BTC.

Just buy .15 BTC per week.  Or measure the quantity in Fiat how much you buy each week.    Say $75 per week or something like that. 

Then when the BTC price is high, you buy less and when the price is low you buy more. 

There are various ways to get started investing into BTC whether weekly or daily amounts or once a month.

 I personally believe that if you are just getting started then better to invest daily.... let's say for example $10 to $20 per day until you acquire a comfortable amount (but the amount and the time interval may vary depending on through what service you are buying), then maybe switch to weekly, but the key is to get started with whatever budget you have and whether you can time your buying of BTC during lower prices.. and then little by little, you will acquire a pool of BTC.

[JayJuanGee]

thought this was fitting

I'm bullish, but wer'e down a lot of percentage so far this year, and its Almost Q2, so I don't see how this is fitting.   Now... talk to me in July and it will probably be accurate.

One year is March 2013 to March 2014 - NOT December 2013 to March 2014... that is a different story. 

NOW, if you are measuring from July 2013 to July 2014, then that is still to be determined.

[JayJuanGee]

Finally he said, "But..." and there was a long pause as he was out of arguments. I interrupted and said, "What you're realizing in this moment is the paradigm shift. Western Union, out of business. Credit card companies, out of business. Banks? Well, we will see."

He recognized it could change all payments, credit, cash, checks, international, and that it could possibly put a hurting on bank fees. He held onto the fact banks still make loans. I didn't have the heart to tell him that might wane if they couldn't make absurd money from fees. He'll figure it out.

Credit cards aren't going anywhere. People live on credit.

NEVER say NEVER>  I would say that it would take a minimum of 5 to 10 years to transition out of these kinds of credit institutions...   but most likely in the 20-30 year time-frame... if we get success of crypto currencies.

Success of crypto = no more credit? Or do you mean crypto loans will eventually be extended?

I think that we are going to have both.... at least for a while.

There are also going to continue to be ways to exploit people and to keep them down.. and that will take a while to develop. 

I don't think any of us know how all of these dynamics will play out in the event that crypto were successful..... on a global level.... Personally, I do NOT want to rack my brain with such speculations b/c I believe that there are so many varying possibilities... Maybe at some point if we branch in a certain direction, then we can begin to narrow down speculations.  At this point, the more near future is just for bitcoin to become more widely adopted in a more and more ways by more and more people and businesses and governments... So in that regard, we have to crawl before we can walk and walk before we can run.

[JorgeStolfi]

I have seen some of your other posts on this particular topic, and your thesis in this regard seems ill-founded.  There may be some truth that some less than savory characters may have been first adopters of bitcoin, and potentially these less than savory characters would profit the most if they are able to HODL their BTC while the price continues to rise. 

The early adopters are not necessarily "scumbags", just that I do not see why the world would agree giving them such a large slice of their wealth.

But there are undoubtedly many bad guys among them.  The MtGOX thief alone got hold of 600,000 BTC, which is 5% of all existing bitcoins -- hence 2.5% of all the money in the world in that extreme scenario.  The SilkRoad operator is claiming 173,000 BTC that were seized by the FBI as being his property.  There have been already a couple dozen smaller versions and variants of MtGOX,  where thieves and scammers got away with various amounts of BTC, proably adding to hundreds of thousands.  (The BitcoinRain "theft" here in Brazil, for example, slurped up over 15,000 BTC from its investors.)  It seems likely that 10% or more of all existing bitcoins were acquired by criminal means.

[billyjoeallen]

I don't understand why people hate corporations more than governments. Corporations don't force you to do business with them. Governments do. Most of the evil done by corporations is enabled or facilitated by the governments anyway.

It shouldn't matter if BTC is concentrated in a few hands with a stable money supply. It doesn't do the holders any good unless they spend it and if they do, they don't have it anymore. The people who own it now and in the future are the people who value it the most, the people willing to pay the price it takes to get it and pay the opportunity costs of holding it.

[JayJuanGee]

Semantics, the term "this year" means just that (2014) it does not mean a year period between March to March. So as we read the text on the picture that says this year we should understand.

You are right about the picture saying "this year" which is ambiguous and accordingly needs to be understood in context.  Also, the text of the picture seems to be an exaggeration and quite less than specific b/c it does NOT exactly describe from when it is measuring.  Nonetheless, in order to understand the overall point of the picture, then it would need to be read as within the past year... b/c if you look at only this calendar year, then you get something like $720 to $560 - which is nearly negative 30%.... .. not an increase, but a decrease

Then in March of 2013... BTC price went from $30 to $100, so depending upon which measuring point is going to give varying statistics.  I doubt that the text of the picture was attempting to be accurate in that regard, and certainly, I would have phrased it differently had I been the author.  But the nature of a joke sometimes is to exaggerate and to make fun of specifics... like to give such exact percentage numbers without providing an exact measuring time (and hour and minute)

[cbutters]

I have seen some of your other posts on this particular topic, and your thesis in this regard seems ill-founded.  There may be some truth that some less than savory characters may have been first adopters of bitcoin, and potentially these less than savory characters would profit the most if they are able to HODL their BTC while the price continues to rise. 

The early adopters are not necessarily "scumbags", just that I do not see why the world would agree giving them such a large slice of their wealth.

But there are undoubtedly many bad guys among them.  The MtGOX thief alone got hold of 600,000 BTC, which is 5% of all existing bitcoins -- hence 2.5% of all the money in the world in that extreme scenario.  The SilkRoad operator is claiming 173,000 BTC that were seized by the FBI as being his property.  There have been already a couple dozen smaller versions and variants of MtGOX,  where thieves and scammers got away with various amounts of BTC, proably adding to hundreds of thousands.  (The BitcoinRain "theft" here in Brazil, for example, slurped up over 15,000 BTC from its investors.)  It seems likely that 10% or more of all existing bitcoins were acquired by criminal means.

Yes, but then those coins are sold or traded or used to purchase items, they always eventually make their way back into the regular economy or are lost. Just like 99.9% of US dollars have traces of drugs on them. If you don't think that every single paper dollar in existence hasn't been used or will be used for some sort of shady transaction, you are very mistaken. Just because people steal bitcoin doesn't mean that bitcoin shouldn't be used. Criminals should be stopped and prosecuted, not the currency they use. All currencies will be susceptible to monetary transactions that may not be legitimate, and I doubt a large percentage of these criminals are just hoarding the bitcoin, they are probably selling it, buying things, and probably losing their private keys to their shady partners / lost when things get ugly and they end up missing / dead. In the long run, its a non-issue IMO.

[schizoid]

On March 23, 2013 bitcoin was $70, so it's only up 700% YoY.

[JayJuanGee]

I have seen some of your other posts on this particular topic, and your thesis in this regard seems ill-founded.  There may be some truth that some less than savory characters may have been first adopters of bitcoin, and potentially these less than savory characters would profit the most if they are able to HODL their BTC while the price continues to rise. 

The early adopters are not necessarily "scumbags", just that I do not see why the world would agree giving them such a large slice of their wealth.

But there are undoubtedly many bad guys among them.  The MtGOX thief alone got hold of 600,000 BTC, which is 5% of all existing bitcoins -- hence 2.5% of all the money in the world in that extreme scenario.  The SilkRoad operator is claiming 173,000 BTC that were seized by the FBI as being his property.  There have been already a couple dozen smaller versions and variants of MtGOX,  where thieves and scammers got away with various amounts of BTC, proably adding to hundreds of thousands.  (The BitcoinRain "theft" here in Brazil, for example, slurped up over 15,000 BTC from its investors.)  It seems likely that 10% or more of all existing bitcoins were acquired by criminal means.

You are speculating again a lot with your facts, b/c the story about the missing bitcoins is still developing regarding GOX.  But let's assume for the sake of argument that 10% of bitcoins, at some point was acquired by criminals.  Does this assumption also mean that they are still holding those 10%, or have they already liquidated all or some of those holdings?  I would imagine that criminals do want to profit at some point, while they are still living, so just holding onto bitcoins is NOT going to do them any good.  But even if they do hold the bitcoins, so what?  Are they going to manipulate the bitcoin market with that 10%..?  What is the fear exactly?  Holding 10% does NOT give them any special power over bitcoin, except in a world where you are speculating about some plot that they may have to undermine bitcoin rather than to merely make some money off of bitcoin. 

If the thieves already got away with the money, then so what?   We cannot catch them, they have crossed the border to mexico.. or whereever... and they are free... Same with dollars.. if the bank robbers got away, and they are living in the bahamas and sipping Pina colatas, then what can you do, you do not have the evidence... that does not undermine bitcoin, if they already got away.

[JayJuanGee]

On March 23, 2013 bitcoin was $70, so it's only up 700% YoY.

Part of my point was that the joker, Podyx, was being imprecise in some parts and then precise in other parts as part of the joke.. .so when we try to call him on the technicalities or to quibble about the various technical mistakes, then we become part of the joke.. b/c we did NOT get it.. he was exaggerating to make various humorous points..   Whether we appreciate Podyx's humor or not.

[schizoid]

On March 23, 2013 bitcoin was $70, so it's only up 700% YoY.

Part of my point was that the joker, Podyx, was being imprecise in some parts and then precise in other parts as part of the joke.. .so when we try to call him on the technicalities or to quibble about the various technical mistakes, then we become part of the joke.. b/c we did NOT get it.. he was exaggerating to make various humorous points..   Whether we appreciate Podyx's humor or not.

I got the joke. I just decided to do the math because I'm bored.

[chessnut]

is Huobi closed? I havent seen the price move for hours.

this is the quietest day I have ever seen.

[JorgeStolfi]

Yes, but then those coins are sold or traded or used to purchase items, they always eventually make their way back into the regular economy or are lost. Just like 99.9% of US dollars have traces of drugs on them. If you don't think that every single paper dollar in existence hasn't been used or will be used for some sort of shady transaction, you are very mistaken. Just because people steal bitcoin doesn't mean that bitcoin shouldn't be used.

The problem (actually, just an aggravant to the main problem) is not coins that have passed through the hands of criminals, but coins that are STILL in the hands of criminals.

Criminals should be stopped and prosecuted, not the currency they use.

Agree 100%, but very few of those criminals seem to be prosecuted.  (I know of one case in China,, are there any others?)  The vast majority of the "thieves" remained unknown and kept their booty.

I doubt a large percentage of these criminals are just hoarding the bitcoin, they are probably selling it, buying things, and probably losing their private keys to their shady partners

Is that so? If a thief spends a few bitcents of his booty now to buy a pizza, the payment will be visible and the police could catch him by following the delivery boy.  As long as he leaves the coins untouched, he cannot be traced through them, and they cannot be taken from him.  If he waits for a few yers he may even be beyond the reach of the law.

And the problem does not get solved if he has to give the keys to other criminals like him.

EDIT: furtehrmore, 600,000 BTC are not easily spent or sold...

[QuestionAuthority]

This thread is cool to watch. Because someone is continuously posting to it you can see the earth rotating around the sun as the people that participate in this thread slowly fade from country to country.

[JayJuanGee]

On March 23, 2013 bitcoin was $70, so it's only up 700% YoY.

Part of my point was that the joker, Podyx, was being imprecise in some parts and then precise in other parts as part of the joke.. .so when we try to call him on the technicalities or to quibble about the various technical mistakes, then we become part of the joke.. b/c we did NOT get it.. he was exaggerating to make various humorous points..   Whether we appreciate Podyx's humor or not.

I got the joke. I just decided to do the math because I'm bored.

I figured that you got the joke... b/c you came in to the conversation later.. and did not initially raise it... but only brought it up after the further posts...

Podyx is probably laughing his ass off to get such an effect from a silly ass picture...

[JorgeStolfi]

Huobi has been offline for "DDOS attacks" since 1pm China time; the note on their site said they would be back by 3 pm; it is now 5pm in China... 

[miningnew]

Huobi has been offline for "DDOS attacks" since 1pm China time; the note on their site said they would be back by 3 pm; it is now 5pm in China... 

Dear customers
all our funds are gone.

Sorry

[JorgeStolfi]

Interestingly, the price is now rising in the non-Chinese markets, but flat on OKCoin. 

It would seem that Huobi is the main "terminal" for arbitrage into all the Chinese markets. 

Perhaps someone outside China is trying to pump up the price, and does not want to waste money into dragging Huobi along?

[JimboToronto]

This thread is cool to watch. Because someone is continuously posting to it you can see the earth rotating around the sun as the people that participate in this thread slowly fade from country to country.

Yeah. I sometimes try to guess posters' locations by the times they post.

I realize though, that lifestyle can have as important an influence as location.

Not everyone is awake during daylight hours. Some people post from their employers' computers while some post at home.

Meanwhile, BTC keeps going 24/7.

[JorgeStolfi]

Huobi is back on line. Let's see whether the prices will realign.