Huh? You have a normal distribution, with equal "likelihood" of up or down -- slightly higher to the upside in fact.

It's not the same at all. Not even remotely comparable.

Weather forecasting is running mathematical models through a simulator, looking for convergent outcomes, and assigning probabilities to them. It is mathematics based on science. It is not always accurate -- because that is the nature of probability; and the models can always be improved. The beef you have with weather forecasts may also be more to do with how they are presented rather than the forecast anyway. "48% chance of rain" is much more useful than a picture of rainclouds over your city.

On the other hand, technical analysis is based on the assumption that markets are predictable in behaviour due to regular patterns in aggregate human emotion. TAs will tell you that they are modelling market emotion. However they are not -- you will never see any such model presented. Rather they are using patterns in historical price and volume to predict future price and volume. Usually based on premises (such as Eliott Wave) that are 100 years old.

You will see lots of fancy indicators -- however they are all based on the same raw data: historical trades (There is no other data available). They are not even remotely modelling the underlying users and markets at play. You almost never see any TA that attempts to model the reasons for rises and falls. They treat price falls due to bad news, technical glitches, and manipulation equally, assuming that the average market participant knows nothing of the underlying causes too. This may have been (somewhat) useful for Wall St. a century ago, but to an Internet currency in 2013? Really?

Finally, another way that TA and weather forecasting is different... consider this. If TA could even remotely accurately model behaviour, the behaviour itself wouldn't happen and the price wouldn't move. This is the key as to why TA is effectively worthless. Is the TA influencing the market, or the other way around? Read around and you will soon realise it is the former. TAs are only market oracles to their herd of market sheep. Can't you see yourself how your last paragraph is testament to this fact?

It's ridiculous to make these assertions before the weekend is out. Everyone is waiting to see if the dumper strikes again. Jury is out until Tues/Weds.

I think the OP needs to read up a bit more on the origin of Bitcoin and the Cypherpunks.

While it's important to keep one's guard up, one of the very aims of Bitcoin and the associated cryptography is to evade state eavesdropping and control. To suggest otherwise is quite ridiculous.

Start here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cypherpunk

Since "Satoshi" isn't around, maybe also pop into Hal Finney's thread here and thank him.

Antigravity! That's got to be bullish!

Nice charts, but "evidence"? They show what we all know: it's been going down. Volume has been low. We know.

It's not evidence of future performance. 

The time to buy in is the lows of a bear market when everyone is crying scared. Looking around this thread, we can't be far off.

Still good, it gives us a ballpark of what money people have on the sidelines. Sure, some is manipulation by sellers, but most are real.

This. This group has rapidly turned into bear circle-jerk.

The reality is, we're over 60% down from our all-time high, our exchange footprint is increasing, the regulatory situation looks clearer and better than a month ago, and there is buying pressure despite attempted manipulation by dumpers. Now is, for all intents and purposes, a fantastic entry point.

Yawn. This is getting old, fast. Things do not need to get worse in order to better. Anything can (and will) happen.

Quite how bears can spin this into a negative thing is completely beyond me. Do any of you stand back and actually think about what you are saying?

Being in the ft weekend magazine is not negative, it is great news. Exposure is good. These kinds of things are far more positive and concrete than the nonsense regarding Cyprus or China that was readily lapped up on these forums.

As for "OMG whales"... It is not then causing the problems. It is the weak hands that follow them.

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Everyone is a bit over-dramatic. We don't need a "crash".

On every step down, the price decreases a little, and the volume increases A LOT, with many willing buyers to be found.

Shortly thereafter the price almost-recovers, and the volume dwindles as everyone is afraid of another dump.

None of this is voodoo, or an "inevitable" slide to a tiny number.. it is simply the natural reaction of a market scared by manipulative dumpers.

When people realise that things aren't actually that bad, confidence will return and we will be able to trade higher volumes at higher prices.

Case in point: trolls like Jaroslaw trying to prey on your fears.

This is Bitcoin, so all of this will probably happen faster than we expect.

And every time, the price decreases a little, and the volume increases A LOT, with many willing buyers to be found.

Shortly thereafter the price almost-recovers, and the volume dwindles as everyone is afraid of another dump.

None of this is voodoo, or an "inevitable" slide to a tiny number.. it is simply the natural reaction of a market scared by manipulative dumpers.

When people realise that things aren't actually that bad, confidence will return and we will be able to trade higher volumes at higher prices

This is Bitcoin, so all of this will probably happen faster than we expect.

Come on, it's not that bad - they seem to be quite positive about the potential for Bitcoin, but just require US exchangers to be registered and regulated.

They specificaly mention they are not out to get Bitcoin, and the quote you took out of context was used in her speech to specifically point out the differences between Bitcoin and LR. So to say "you could substitute LR for Bitcoin in that sentence" is woefully disengenuous.

It is apparent that Gox is making a best effort to comply with the regulations, and it looks like that has been heard loud and clear by FinCEN.

As for the children  angle -- well this is a meeting specifically about that, what do you expect?

It must suck to be around you, since it seems you are wilfully pessimistic about everything.

What are the data points? Daily lows? weighted average price? (I think a scatter chart with trend line only makes sense for the latter).

I don't know what you mean, all the evidence points to the fact that Gox is actually quite safe.

(PS: If you have fiat, now is the time to buy ;-))

Ending your life is the easy option, and will surely hurt your family members too.

Think about it. The only meaning your life would then have is that, as you ended it, it made more people even more miserable.

Don't do it.

Don't think so? Have you discussed this with them? How about listing here some positive family memories?

The last thing such manufacturers will want to do is sell coins cheaply. Credit may be a more attractive option.

I think the real point is, is that the government is not cracking down on Bitcoin -- but on fiat money transfer to/from Bitcoin (or anything else for that matter). All fiat transfers should have the  AML/KYC stamp of approval. If they want to do that, it's fine -- their intentions as publicly stated are noble (albeit, IMO, misguided in the bigger picture). However this increases the demand for a payment system with less friction. They are essentially increasing the market value of Bitcoin as a payment system by making the USD less useful.

This is assuming there always will be some way to get in and out of BTC -- and to all intents and purposes, it looks like there will be.

The sell-offs don't seem as frenzied as last week -- I'm not sure this is a manipulator per se. Perhaps "medium sized fish" getting in before the anticipated weekend sell-offs.