Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[samson]

That vol spike on CM is completely bogus. It has done this before.
I was online at the time and a few hundred (edit: 1400) went through on bitcoinwisdom, but not thousands like CM has.

Someone else told me that on IRC - I thought I'd confirm it here.

That's very strange, how could this happen ?

[Jozzaboy]

The flakishness of this thread is a long-term bullish sign. In the short term, except all reason to disappear from here, and then a stealth rise to commence.

Everybody will be in denial until we cross $0.500/mBTC. I think we may spend 1-2 more months in $0.1 and then the rise would last for about 2 months. In October we will hit $5 and Christmas we'll see maximum $50, but may as well consolidate in $2.

So no $300 before Christmas, folks. Sell all your bitcoins (to me)! 2013 will be remembered as a good year (we are already up +700% and the year is only half over) but not everything will happen this year, as I predicted previously.

The key is to increase the actual usage. It is currently increasing but not virally. The viral application will see very fast exchange rate growth also. Currently (as you can see) everybody in the thread has just gone to work, and that is more sensible to do now, compared to watching USDBTC.

What do you think of the price right now? Any expected low?

All the same, there is some tone of desperation in this. Just how heavily invested are you??

[crumbs]

[...]
All the same, there is some tone of desperation in this. Just how heavily invested are you??

All in.  Nothing better!

[prof7bit]

I wasn't online at the time to see this happen
It looks like someone put up a huge wall and it was eaten immediately.

This must be wrong.

Here are the volumes for M15 candles for today, all times in UTC as logged by goxtool (comes directly from MtGox)

Code:

2013-06-16 12:51:38,343:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 00:00:00 volume: 101
2013-06-16 12:51:38,344:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 00:15:00 volume: 96
2013-06-16 12:51:38,345:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 00:30:00 volume: 151
2013-06-16 12:51:38,346:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 00:45:00 volume: 108
2013-06-16 12:51:38,347:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 01:00:00 volume: 50
2013-06-16 12:51:38,348:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 01:15:00 volume: 40
2013-06-16 12:51:38,350:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 01:30:00 volume: 30
2013-06-16 12:51:38,351:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 01:45:00 volume: 26
2013-06-16 12:51:38,352:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 02:00:00 volume: 62
2013-06-16 12:51:38,353:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 02:15:00 volume: 110
2013-06-16 12:51:38,354:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 02:30:00 volume: 35
2013-06-16 12:51:38,355:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 02:45:00 volume: 16
2013-06-16 12:51:38,356:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 03:00:00 volume: 24
2013-06-16 12:51:38,366:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 03:15:00 volume: 36
2013-06-16 12:51:38,371:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 03:30:00 volume: 450
2013-06-16 12:51:38,378:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 03:45:00 volume: 396
2013-06-16 12:51:38,385:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 04:00:00 volume: 171
2013-06-16 12:51:38,386:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 04:15:00 volume: 3
2013-06-16 12:51:38,390:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 04:30:00 volume: 15
2013-06-16 12:51:38,391:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 04:45:00 volume: 39
2013-06-16 12:51:38,393:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 05:00:00 volume: 14
2013-06-16 12:51:38,396:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 05:15:00 volume: 57
2013-06-16 12:51:38,405:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 05:30:00 volume: 209
2013-06-16 12:51:38,406:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 05:45:00 volume: 90
2013-06-16 12:51:38,407:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 06:00:00 volume: 33
2013-06-16 12:51:38,408:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 06:15:00 volume: 6
2013-06-16 12:51:38,417:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 06:30:00 volume: 73
2013-06-16 12:51:38,418:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 06:45:00 volume: 200
2013-06-16 12:51:38,419:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 07:00:00 volume: 60
2013-06-16 12:51:38,420:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 07:15:00 volume: 166
2013-06-16 12:51:38,422:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 07:30:00 volume: 1
2013-06-16 12:51:38,426:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 07:45:00 volume: 583
2013-06-16 12:51:38,427:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 08:00:00 volume: 155
2013-06-16 12:51:38,430:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 08:15:00 volume: 19
2013-06-16 12:51:38,431:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 08:30:00 volume: 55
2013-06-16 12:51:38,432:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 08:45:00 volume: 75
2013-06-16 12:51:38,434:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 09:00:00 volume: 6
2013-06-16 12:51:38,435:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 09:15:00 volume: 40
2013-06-16 12:51:38,436:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 09:30:00 volume: 20
2013-06-16 12:51:38,437:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 09:45:00 volume: 63
2013-06-16 12:51:38,438:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 10:00:00 volume: 50
2013-06-16 12:51:38,439:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 10:15:00 volume: 69
2013-06-16 12:51:38,440:DEBUG:_balancer.Strategy:time: 2013-06-16 10:30:00 volume: 22

[ChartBuddy]

[Its About Sharing]

If you are still bearish, don't be, 100 USD is the bottom.

I do not see any bears anymore, to me the forum posters wih the bearish remarks are just some people hoping to get in at a lower price-point, because they are actually bullish!  

If you look back at the bubble crash, then it's obvious that afterwards when the price went down below 100, every time the price went back up to above 100 in a relatively short time.
 
This happened several times, indicating that the market will not settle for a price below 100.
Even when some big coin dumps put serious downward price pressure on the bitcoin value, the price rebounded to above 100 very fast.

However; it is also clear that there is not enough confidence yet to have the price moving up again.
We scraped 160 and we touched 140, but that is it.

I believe it is now safe to say that the new bottom is 100 USD and in the mid to long run the value will increase again.
In the short run there might still be a few big coin sell off's to below 100 USD, which you can profit from if you dare to, but the price will not stay below 100 USD for long anymore.

When the price will start moving up again is difficult to say, might be a few months, might also take until next year. We will probably have to wait for some positive events to happen: e.g. new and improved exchanges, transparent regulation, big venture capital introducing new business opportunities, bitcoin acceptance by big online retailers (probably not soon), who knows the bitcoin ATM rolling out worldwide, or just some general global positive media attention.

But it will go up.

up uP UP

I'm a long term BULL with BTC but the short to mid term has changed. Services, places to purchase goods with BTC, etc. are minimal these days. I know that Bitpay has added a lot of customers but a large % of their income is just from BFL using their service, that can change. It is real, but it is also a part of the Bitcoin ecosystem and we have to see it as such but not discount it too much either. For the price to really have value at this level we need something of substance to take place. We can argue just as a store of Value BTC is great. But the current price seems to be looking to a future justification. That isn't all bad, as the economy doesn't look good, but I'm talking about just BTC now. If the stock market takes a crash, yes, we jump back into BTC as a store of value before others start.

No where in your post did you give any real evidence of a 100 being a bottom. The chart doesn't look good (many traders as well as subscription services have said this), rallies being sold off into time and time again doesn't look good. The big buy that happened last weekend to stop the price from dropping was a terrible business decision as the slippage was huge.

I do admit, as in my post above, that the market dept is looking great but it also has been manipulated time and time again. And, sold into as already stated.

With all due respect, give some facts (fundamentals with numbers) for your perspective. The bearishness around here lately does scare me, almost a contrarian indicator, but it is also based on a lot of facts.

[rpietila]

All the same, there is some tone of desperation in this. Just how heavily invested are you??

I started selling my bitcoins today, so I likely confirm as a contrarian indicator and you should buy. I still have 97% of the amount left, but now also some dollarz that I can use for paying the bills.

[prof7bit]

If you look back at the bubble crash, then it's obvious that afterwards when the price went down below 100, every time the price went back up to above 100 in a relatively short time.
 
This happened several times, indicating that the market will not settle for a price below 100.

The bounces were smaller every time, indicating that the market will not (yet) want to go up. This means it will go down. If it can't go up here it will go down.

This will happen:

-> a little bit more bouncing around here at these levels
-> decisive move below $100, breaking previous lows (huge triangle break)
-> fear and panic
-> $50 -> bounce -> a few weeks of hope -> down again
-> $50 -> smaller bounce -> a few days of (smaller) hope -> down again
-> $50 -> uncertainty, fear -> break -> stops triggered and n00bs panic
-> $30 -> strong bounce -> a few months hope -> down agan
-> $30 -> smaller bounce  - a few weeks (smaller) hope -> down again
-> $30 -> uncertainty, fear -> break -> more stops and more panic
-> $20
-> me converting most of my Fiat to BTC
-> price goes up again, third bubble slowly beginning.

[samson]

If you look back at the bubble crash, then it's obvious that afterwards when the price went down below 100, every time the price went back up to above 100 in a relatively short time.
 
This happened several times, indicating that the market will not settle for a price below 100.

The bounces were smaller every time, indicating that the market will not (yet) want to go up. This means it will go down. If it can't go up here it will go down.

This will happen:

-> a little bit more bouncing around here at these levels
-> decisive move below $100, breaking previous lows (huge triangle break)
-> fear and panic
-> $50 -> bounce -> a few weeks of hope -> down again
-> $50 -> smaller bounce -> a few days of (smaller) hope -> down again
-> $50 -> uncertainty, fear -> break -> stops triggered and n00bs panic
-> $30 -> strong bounce -> a few months hope -> down agan
-> $30 -> smaller bounce  - a few weeks (smaller) hope -> down again
-> $30 -> uncertainty, fear -> break -> more stops and more panic
-> $20
-> me converting most of my Fiat to BTC
-> price goes up again, third bubble slowly beginning.

I'm thinking that something along these lines will happen with an additional bounce at $70 or $80 on the way down.

[KS]

I'm still waiting for some shorting to go down to 85-ish. The manips were to get the price down. If so, they'll then sell into any rally with good news.

[samson]

All the same, there is some tone of desperation in this. Just how heavily invested are you??

I started selling my bitcoins today, so I likely confirm as a contrarian indicator and you should buy. I still have 97% of the amount left, but now also some dollarz that I can use for paying the bills.

If I were you I'd sell it all. I sold all mine some time ago.

[KS]

All the same, there is some tone of desperation in this. Just how heavily invested are you??

I started selling my bitcoins today, so I likely confirm as a contrarian indicator and you should buy. I still have 97% of the amount left, but now also some dollarz that I can use for paying the bills.

If I were you I'd sell it all. I sold all mine some time ago.

Do you want to crash the price?

[el_rlee]

The market is only pushed down, since all the new asic miners and asic selling companies need to turn a serious amount of bitcoin into fiat in order to recoup part of their investment. Once they have recouped enough of their investment in fiat, the downward pressure will be relieved.

If there was not this strong resistence in the market keeping the value above 100 USD, then the value would have already been a lot lower.

I truly think there is some truth amongst this lines. But difficulty going up like 20% every two weeks will teach miners!

[Miz4r]

If you look back at the bubble crash, then it's obvious that afterwards when the price went down below 100, every time the price went back up to above 100 in a relatively short time.
 
This happened several times, indicating that the market will not settle for a price below 100.

The bounces were smaller every time, indicating that the market will not (yet) want to go up. This means it will go down. If it can't go up here it will go down.

The bounces were smaller, but the dips also less deep. This indicates that the price is trying to settle down after the bubble and the volatile period afterwards. At first it seemed like 115-120 was a nice point for the price to settle on, but bulls reacted too early thinking the price could again grow sustainably from that basis and were punished with some big dumps. Now 100 seems to become the new 120.. is this the real basis we can grow sustainably from after a few months of consolidation or will bulls jump the gun again? We will see and find out soon enough.

This will happen:

-> a little bit more bouncing around here at these levels
-> decisive move below $100, breaking previous lows (huge triangle break)
-> fear and panic
-> $50 -> bounce -> a few weeks of hope -> down again
-> $50 -> smaller bounce -> a few days of (smaller) hope -> down again
-> $50 -> uncertainty, fear -> break -> stops triggered and n00bs panic
-> $30 -> strong bounce -> a few months hope -> down agan
-> $30 -> smaller bounce  - a few weeks (smaller) hope -> down again
-> $30 -> uncertainty, fear -> break -> more stops and more panic
-> $20
-> me converting most of my Fiat to BTC
-> price goes up again, third bubble slowly beginning.

Always funny these kind of predictions. It's like someone predicting the weather in a month from now with precisely the hours of sun and rain we will have on a specific day. I would sooner put my faith in astrology than this fairy tale.

[ChartBuddy]

[molecular]

last realy big selloff had also a nice  bidwall  ..  got eaten like candy..

 

that's one thing about rising bids. If they concentrate close to market price, they can also mean fodder for dumpsters.

[molecular]

That vol spike on CM is completely bogus. It has done this before.
I was online at the time and a few hundred (edit: 1400) went through on bitcoinwisdom, but not thousands like CM has.

Someone else told me that on IRC - I thought I'd confirm it here.

That's very strange, how could this happen ?

just take a look at this thread: [BETA] MTGox websocket API, testers wanted

the title says it all

[Jozzaboy]

-> a little bit more bouncing around here at these levels
-> decisive move below $100, breaking previous lows (huge triangle break)
-> fear and panic
-> $50 -> bounce -> a few weeks of hope -> down again
-> $50 -> smaller bounce -> a few days of (smaller) hope -> down again
-> $50 -> uncertainty, fear -> break -> stops triggered and n00bs panic
-> $30 -> strong bounce -> a few months hope -> down agan
-> $30 -> smaller bounce  - a few weeks (smaller) hope -> down again
-> $30 -> uncertainty, fear -> break -> more stops and more panic
-> $20
-> me converting most of my Fiat to BTC
-> price goes up again, third bubble slowly beginning.

Always funny these kind of predictions. It's like someone predicting the weather in a month from now with precisely the hours of sun and rain we will have on a specific day. I would sooner put my faith in astrology than this fairy tale.
[/quote]

The true bear indicator is rpietila selling off some bitcoins.

[ShroomsKit]

If you look back at the bubble crash, then it's obvious that afterwards when the price went down below 100, every time the price went back up to above 100 in a relatively short time.
 
This happened several times, indicating that the market will not settle for a price below 100.

The bounces were smaller every time, indicating that the market will not (yet) want to go up. This means it will go down. If it can't go up here it will go down.

This will happen:

-> a little bit more bouncing around here at these levels
-> decisive move below $100, breaking previous lows (huge triangle break)
-> fear and panic
-> $50 -> bounce -> a few weeks of hope -> down again
-> $50 -> smaller bounce -> a few days of (smaller) hope -> down again
-> $50 -> uncertainty, fear -> break -> stops triggered and n00bs panic
-> $30 -> strong bounce -> a few months hope -> down agan
-> $30 -> smaller bounce  - a few weeks (smaller) hope -> down again
-> $30 -> uncertainty, fear -> break -> more stops and more panic
-> $20
-> me converting most of my Fiat to BTC
-> price goes up again, third bubble slowly beginning.

I take it you are filthy rich from all the money you made trading?

[gizmoh]

The true bear indicator  is rpietila selling off some bitcoins.

I'd believe its to pay off the private mental institution holding him