Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[KS]

From the way this keeps happening I can't help wondering if it's a deliberate attempt to damage confidence in BTC rather than a way to make money or simple incompetence.  Now, who would both be able to afford to do this and benefit from it?  Maybe I'm just being paranoid but I can't help suspecting the US government or their banks - neither of whom are famous for playing fair or even obeying the law.  They could cause trouble like this with their spare change.

I don't think a tin foil hat is necessary to consider them capable of malicious behaviour, they have a long history of it.

or it's a way to soften up the meat before you *really* bite into it...

I don't think anyone is going to take a big bite until MtGox no longer determines the price of the Bitcoin market. It really is laughable when you think about it. I think everyone is really just waiting for the next gen exchanges.

If I were an Evil Twin and had enough money, I would definitely try to wreak havoc (not too much though, don't want to completely destabilize the ecosystem) to buy at a lower pricepoint.

But yes, nextgen exchange is an idea. That actually can lead to yet another tinfoilhattery: what if I really wanted to destabilize MTG and then, like a knight in shining armor, open my brand new exchange (that follows all the laws, has some anti-manipulation features, whatnot)?

Bitcoin is actually pretty fragile, when you think about it, but also has an enormous potential. This has attracted and will attract more unsavoury characters. And when *real* money will start to play with it, run for the hills (actually, HOLD for the mid to long term).

[MickeyT2008]

I wonder how much longer this pattern will carry on for, maybe I should just leave a bid on for $2, then ignore BTC for a few months to see if I get it.

And an ask of $10,000 just in case it goes the other way

Fortunately I don't have (can't afford!) enough BTC or fiat in this for it to be a disaster regardless of what happens.

[bobdude17]

At least ASICMiner is helping my mood right now. Almost at 3BTC

[Rampion]

I wonder how much longer this pattern will carry on for, maybe I should just leave a bid on for $2, then ignore BTC for a few months to see if I get it.

And an ask of $10,000 just in case it goes the other way

Fortunately I don't have (can't afford!) enough BTC or fiat in this for it to be a disaster regardless of what happens.

$2 won't happen

Dips are not being too deep, bear is on, but the bottom is closer than some this-is-2011 doomsayers are expecting.

[rpietila]

From the way this keeps happening I can't help wondering if it's a deliberate attempt to damage confidence in BTC rather than a way to make money or simple incompetence.  Now, who would both be able to afford to do this and benefit from it?  Maybe I'm just being paranoid but I can't help suspecting the US government or their banks - neither of whom are famous for playing fair or even obeying the law.  They could cause trouble like this with their spare change.

I don't think a tin foil hat is necessary to consider them capable of malicious behaviour, they have a long history of it.

or it's a way to soften up the meat before you *really* bite into it...

I don't think anyone is going to take a big bite until MtGox no longer determines the price of the Bitcoin market. It really is laughable when you think about it. I think everyone is really just waiting for the next gen exchanges.

Nothing of the same generation can surpass Mt.Gox. We need the Dealer Network, developed here.

I think it takes about 3 weeks from this day to the inauguration of the daily fixing. I mean that you can skip gox from that day on doing OTC. 3 months for this to take out the volume from Gox also.

[sarc]

I wonder how much longer this pattern will carry on for, maybe I should just leave a bid on for $2, then ignore BTC for a few months to see if I get it.

And an ask of $10,000 just in case it goes the other way

Fortunately I don't have (can't afford!) enough BTC or fiat in this for it to be a disaster regardless of what happens.

$2 won't happen

Dips are not being too deep, bear is on, but the bottom is closer than some this-is-2011 doomsayers are expecting.

It was a bit different last night though, two separate events that began differently...so they might not be so comparable to dips in recent history. Not that I'm suggesting $2 is likely...

[Its About Sharing]

Interesting that we all ready have a bit of volume today. It does seem like there are more buyers out there than I originally thought. But if the selling starts, like yesterday, they just greatly outnumber the buyers and down she goes.

So, to think, what is that price? I'd say it is above $50, closer to $70/$85 but that is hard to predict. We have to watch where we settle and the corresponding volume. The low volume we have seen for a while now always worried me.

[Rampion]

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY BULLISH:


http://www.fincen.gov/news_room/speech/pdf/20130613.pdf

WOW

[sacko]

THIS IS DUBIOUSLY BULLISH

[barbs]

makes me wonder what the hell i'm doing with fiat on gox; i made sure to do KYC so my accounts don't get frozen but you never know really do you ??

[BitPirate]

I don't know what you mean, all the evidence points to the fact that Gox is actually quite safe.

(PS: If you have fiat, now is the time to buy ;-))

[SGExodus]

Having volume today is a very normal market reaction. 

If we are expecting that the "manipulator" will make a large dump on Sunday to cause a price fall,  then the no-brainer approach will be to sell your coin now, and stock up on your fiat, to buy back on Sunday after the dump.

[barbs]

I don't know what you mean, all the evidence points to the fact that Gox is actually quite safe.

(PS: If you have fiat, now is the time to buy ;-))

Debatable, I did and dumped, net 0.60$ loss but I don't think there are legs for this market still at 104

[sarc]

(PS: If you have fiat, now is the time to buy ;-))

You meant sell bitcoins to get more fiat, right?

Regarding volume, even with a mini crash last night (and associated trading), the volume for yesterday was still miles off where you'd expect given the price. Today doesn't look so different so far...


updated chart, dashed line is extrapolated - in case you missed it, the price is still going down...

[solex]

(PS: If you have fiat, now is the time to buy ;-))

You meant sell bitcoins to get more fiat, right?


updated chart, dashed line is extrapolated - in case you missed it, the price is still going down...

Do you have one of those for when the price was reaching $260?

[ChartBuddy]

[sarc]

(PS: If you have fiat, now is the time to buy ;-))

You meant sell bitcoins to get more fiat, right?


updated chart, dashed line is extrapolated - in case you missed it, the price is still going down...

Do you have one of those for when the price was reaching $260?

I had one in my head...

[BitPirate]

What are the data points? Daily lows? weighted average price? (I think a scatter chart with trend line only makes sense for the latter).

[sarc]

What are the data points? Daily lows? weighted average price? (I think a scatter chart with trend line only makes sense for the latter).

bingo! Though, I think either's fine as long as it's consistent.

[MickeyT2008]

The trouble is that because BTC is used more for speculation than anything else the price varies wildly according speculators moods.  If it was more widely used as a currency then that would give it an intrinsic value and some inertia to its price changes.  For example there are traders dealing in USD but if they go crazy then still nobody's going to give you $20000 for £500 because $20000 also represents the price of a new car which £500 obviously doesn't.  Widespread use might not be good for speculators but for BTC itself as a currency it would stabilise its value a lot.

Of course though this is a speculators forum so I don't expect this suggestion to be very popular here!