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3001  Economy / Economics / Stagflation and assets that perform well on: October 23, 2021, 10:00:26 PM
Most of us have heard of hyperinflation. As of today, Venezuela and Turkey are the common examples. However, the western economies are less likely to fall into hyperinflation yet quite likely to fall in stagflation.

Quote
In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

Stagflation is typically created by an offer shock (sudden increase in prices of raw materials or other) and that is pretty much what is happening with the energy as of today in UK, parts of US and most Europe. This situation raises prices at the same time that slows growth and is difficult to be dealt with.

On this case, historically, the assets that perform well are Gold and commodities. Bitcoin has not been tested yet, but it does share a lot in common with gold and commodities (much more in common than with fiat currency indeed). My take is that bitcoin will perform well if this scenario materialises.

3002  Economy / Economics / Re: Differences between an investor and common man! on: October 22, 2021, 08:26:41 PM
Being an average Joe on the street is by no means contradictory with being an investor. Nowadays investing is much easier in most countries than it used to be in the past. Many apps and platforms allow all short of strategies, even rounding up on expenses and sending the change to your investment accounts and the like. A bit crazy if you ask me.

For me, the real difference between the dude in the street and what you could call a proper investor is the ability to have a solid reason and method behind the investment decissions.
3003  Economy / Economics / Re: A tale of the two parasites on: October 21, 2021, 02:33:25 PM
There is one more even bigger parasite and that is government with all their politicians, and this parasites lives from everyone else including rich and poor parasites.
This corrupt lazy parasite is damaging economy even more with their rules and regulations, and it is destroying people with inflation, constant rising of taxes, and reducing freedom of people.
And please don't tell me that we can't built roads or live without government, because I am sure that we can.

You are questioning the need for a government on the grounds of being unnecessary to build roads and having people working on it that do not add value.

I agree that governments tend to be inefficient, not necessarily run by parasites (no more than in other places anyway), as they do some work, even if you consider it does not add value for you individually.

Road can be privately financed. The problem is that is an approach that tends to widen the wealth gap between different parts of a nation or territory and generates social tension. There is case for private road and a case for public works.
3004  Local / Esquina Libre / Re: Frases famosas de gente mejor q tu :) (I) on: October 21, 2021, 12:29:23 PM
Hoy unas cuantas frases de Ford. El creador del famoso Modelo T - "Pueden elegir el color mientras sea negro".



3005  Local / Español (Spanish) / Re: Senadores presionan a Facebook para que suspenda el piloto su monedero Novi on: October 21, 2021, 11:58:14 AM
Cuanto más lejos estén tus datos de esa compañía (entre otras), mejor. La mala reputación se la han ganado a pulso, y confiar en que gestionen una wallet sin enlazar los datos para explotarlos es poco creíble (amén de la seguridad).

En cuanto a la pregunta, creo que no van a dejar que le crezcan los enanos en su propio jardín, y menos si el potencial uso tiene tintes de ser usado por las masas y ser transfronterizo, lo cual si podría afectar de algún modo eventualmente al peso del USD (sea o no digital).

Hay también que poner la noticia en su contexto. La senadora en cuestión es conocida por poner bastantes pegas a lo que otros hacen, particularmente la grandes tecnológicas y aportar muy poco. Eso es en general un problema que es apreciable en muchas facetas de la vida y que, por lo menos yo, procuro resolver como el señor Ford:

3006  Economy / Economics / Re: A tale of the two parasites on: October 21, 2021, 11:09:51 AM
Both are parasites, both damage the economy.
That may be true (and I believe it is, though I don't think I'd use the term "parasite" to describe wealthy individuals), but your examples represent two extremes ...

The term parasite describe some rich and some poor. Not all of them certainly, as said before in response to another poster.

It is curios how most people do not consider the rich a parasite, because he pays for his (her bills). However, this is not about how much you own, but about how much are you delivering to the society and to others. If the answer is "just taking", the wealth you own is irrelevant.
3007  Economy / Economics / Re: A tale of the two parasites on: October 20, 2021, 10:02:38 PM
About the rich, they do add value sort off during their investment in the country that adds to the GDP and increase per income to their employees. The employees are made responsible to their families as they paid and they take care of their children, send them to school, feed and provide shelter.

The rich also add value because of different types of taxes levied against them and their businesses. The monies being generated from that are used to provide social amenities to the people.

Likewise not all the poor are parasites. Some poor have good knowledge to be better but may lack capital to do something with their knowledge. The poor are employed in government and they develop good policy to the government, they are very dedicated to work for progress to the area of life they find themselves.

No, the "rich" parasite does not add any value by paying others. He is not creating anything for anyone. You do not understand the difference between money and value.

Please, read a bit more carefully and see if I say that all poor are parasites in any part of my post.
3008  Economy / Economics / A tale of the two parasites on: October 20, 2021, 08:51:25 PM
In politics and economics, I can live with many things, but there is two types of people that I just cannot stand:

The poor parasite

The poor parasite intends to live without adding any value to the economy and society in which he (or she) lives. He will look and learn about all the possible ways to trick others into paying his bills, caring for his children and providing. If that does not happen, he will create social unrest, commit crimes or be a problem for the rest.

Due to this people, many think that poorer people should be left to their own means and that any opportunity you give them is money wasted.


The rich parasite

The rich parasite intends to live without adding any value to the economy and society in which he (or she lives). He will look and learn about all the possible ways to avoid contributing to the country or state he lives in, while demanding full legal protection of his assets and lifestyle. If that does not happen, they will create social unrest, take funds to tax havens a pay politicians to make his will.

Due to this people, many think that rich people should be taxed to death and that the political systems is essentially corrupt.

Both are parasites, both damage the economy.
3009  Economy / Economics / Re: The Economic Gap has Exceeded the Tolerance Limit on: October 20, 2021, 08:28:27 PM
Do you think this kind of reality is fair?

What seems to me is that the story you tell is the same communist garbage that comes from Marx's time, of fallaciously considering that if the rich are richer, the poor must be poorer. And not only is it not so, but such thinking shows that you don't understand how the world works.

In 1800 there were 1 billion people living on earth and today there are almost 8 billion, and this has not happened because the rich, who are getting richer, have starved the poor. On the contrary, more and more people live on earth because, among other things, with the market economy, there are people who have earned a lot of money by mass producing cheap food and selling it. And today's poor in general (there are exceptions, obviously) have access to many more goods and services than the poor of 1800, so they are richer.

I could write you an encyclopedia on this, but since I see that your previous mentality is that of the falsehood that wealth is like a pie, rather than a dynamic process, I will not try any harder.


Awww, extracting the argument and ignoring the usual "you are a communist so you are already wrong, a probably eat children alive".

It seems that for some people in the forum anything that sounds like taxes, equal opportunity and redistribution is "communism". It is not. It is perfectly compatible with solidly democratic systems that work for the many and not for the few. There are several countries in Northern Europe that have clarity on where the market sits, where the state does better and what way of redistribution works without creating parasites.

You say that it is all right that a few are in control of such a level of wealth because that does not make others poorer and because that is how a market economy works.

Firstly, the fact that they control such a fortune does influence the politics and policies and effectively makes a society more unequal, which is the point of the post. You argue, correctly, that wealth is not a zero sum game, but at the end of the day, that influence in policies and the ability to create loopholes on taxes mean that they contribute less to the common expenses.

Secondly, you argue that this is a consequence of the market and is part of creating common wealth. That is not correct. That is just one interpretation of the markets (the  Austrian School, Chicago and the like way of thinking). No, having free market does not mean that wealth has to be more fairly distributed.

Thirdly, redistribution of wealth does not hinder progress at all. On the contrary, more equal opportunity unveils the talent of people who otherwise could have been lost due to lack of opportunity.

In sum, a society that works for just a few is inadequate and particularly prone to create disorder and unhappiness.


Do you think this kind of reality is fair? As it should be, economic disparities can actually be resolved,

No they can't be!
Every single fucking time in human history when somebody has tried this it has ended in tragedies.
...

That is not true. Again, anything that sound like taxes and redistribution you catalogue as Communism. There is democratic and social way or running a state and it has little to do with Marx, who can only be understood in the context of its time.

Re tragedies, please notice that most wars are created by imperialism and nationalism. Communism tends to do poorly simply because it has never been applied as conceived. In my view it cannot work due to obvious misalignments in the incentive system.

Equality is a strange thing.

Those who don't want to work. Who take no risks, make little effort to educate themselves or develop specialized skillsets. Feel they deserve to enjoy the wealth and prosperity which comes from working hard, taking risks and becoming wealthy as a result. They wish to create a society where there are no winners or losers in society. Everyone receives a participation trophy. No matter if they worked hard. Or didn't work at all. No matter if they made good decisions or bad decisions.
...

That is the common misconception about what equality means. It is not about everyone having the same, it is about equal opportunities or, even more, giving opportunities for everyone. And yes, some people do not deserve it, but still, it is the mission of a modern society to provide that opportunity.

Please, read carefully, this is not about subsidizing, is about providing means for everyone to grow and contribute eventually to the common good.
3010  Economy / Economics / Re: Really, why bitcoin has this value? on: October 20, 2021, 01:09:27 PM
...

A case could be made for bitcoin currently being the #1 inflation protected asset, in the world.

Gold as an inflation protected asset, is more of a boomer trend. Gold can't be exchanged for other assets as conveniently or easily as cryptocurrencies. Gold can't be stored, transported or secured as easily as crypto. BTC may have displaced precious metals as the reigning king of inflation protection.

In this era of inflation concern. Bitcoin's rising value could represent financial institutions, hedge funds, banks and whales around the world voting with their wallets that bitcoin is the best place to store wealth to protect it from rising inflation. It might require that high institutional volume and liquidity to offset bitcoin's historical 4 year boom and bust cycles.



I would not say #1 and let me explain. On any asset you have to take into account the price relative to fiat and other things as well. One of these is the volatility. Bitcoin is extremely volatile up to the point of doubling in a week and the like. Some investors would argue that inflation is rarely 100% in a week, so bitcoin as a protection may not be effective in short periods of time and may not be the best for everyone.
3011  Economy / Economics / Re: What are common arguments for Bitcoin? on: October 20, 2021, 01:05:53 PM
Will this makes me rich?

That's what the newbies think of bitcoin especially those who do not have enough knowledge on it.
Ponzi schemes do exist and they are using the popularity of bitcoin by offering investments with good offers and when the investors heard of bitcoin, they are usually misleading on what bitcoin is, so they'll invest and think bitcoin is a guaranteed profit while in reality, they invest on the Ponzi scheme itself.

I think what's needed is for people to learn the basics of crypto, understanding it will reduce the risk.
What happens is that newbies have false expectations about what they can get out of this market, and when people like us tell them they are mistaken they do not want to listen as how else will they become rich with their small capital? So they keep looking until someone offers them what they want to hear, unfortunately the only ones that can do that are scammers and despite our warnings they decide to go ahead and invest anyway, then when they are scammed they blame bitcoin when it was their own ignorance and their inability to listen which were the main reasons for their tragedy.

It takes a while to understand things, and the problem of not understanding is that you would not have confidence in what you are doing and the first downturn will simply kill you unrealistic expectations of a gold paved road that is always higher and higher and led you to sell. The problem with many newbies is that they are also so in life and in investing and just do not understand patience in investing.
3012  Economy / Economics / Re: Will we see new ATH this year? on: October 20, 2021, 01:02:12 PM
I have to say that it is very likely that we will see ATH again this year, but my view is that it does not matter that much. There is no particular event that may cause an ATH that is well beyond current price and expectations, so if there is an ATH at just 5000 more that last it would not make much of a difference for me and for most of the hodlers out there. It is about how high, not about having or not ATH.
3013  Economy / Economics / Re: Will circular economy work ? on: October 20, 2021, 12:58:23 PM
IMHO it cannot replace fully a non-circular economy. There is a law that says that "entropy can only grow on a closed system" - so it would never be perfectly circular in any case.  There is case to have an economy "as circular as possible", the problem being that, as of now, it is cheaper not to. Sustainability in general has to be incentivised artificially by, for example, introducing taxes and rights to the carbon emissions.

If you want to refurb, repair, etc... you would need to introduce heavier taxes for not doing it. The problem is that would depress the economy, which is something no govmnt. likes.
3014  Economy / Economics / Legalising would give a chance to Latin America on: October 20, 2021, 12:49:12 PM
Let's face it - recreational hard drugs are there to stay. Do war on drugs or pretend that all is because people south of Rio Grande are all "rapists and gangsters" - ignoring the fact that millions in US are willing to blow just about anything in their noses or gulp any funny looking pill that promises them a minute of fun, none of that matters. They are there.

And the real victims of it are not the narcos and are not the people who actually use drugs - nobody is forcing them to put stuff into their bodies if they do not choose to (at least in 99% of the cases). Nope, the victims are the people south of Rio Grande who actually would love to have a decent country and go about their legitimate business without being at risk of being killed or knowing that it is even worse to call the Police and that the political and justice system is so broken that they basically on their own.

It is not going to go away. The DEA will be there self-justifying by capturing a few, more will take their place and the circle will go on and on.

It is time to assume the truth and legalize. And get taxes from it. Is that ethical? I think so.

The impact on Central America would be huge, as this huge market would surface and there would be no need for all the violence that surrounds it. It will give a decent chance of survival to a number of government systems that are failing against the might of the cartels and contribute with taxes and exports.

In US, just as when the "Prohibition" ended in US, the dark economy was greatly reduced. Drugs would have controls and would be no different from Alcohol (a drug arguably) and the recently legalised cannabis.



3015  Economy / Economics / Do you think narcos may actually be on the 10 richest? on: October 20, 2021, 10:29:02 AM
The world likes lists, it kind of creates a framework for competition to be included. One of those is the list of richest in the world, recently:


Quote
Jeff Bezos
Elon Musk
Bernard Arnault
Bill Gates
Mark Zuckerberg
Warren Buffett
Larry Ellison
Larry Page
Sergey Brin
Mukesh Ambani

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/012715/5-richest-people-world.asp

But now, some unofficial figures for less public people are worth a second thought. For example:

Quote
Dawood Ibrahim
...
He’s evaded arrest for a good part of three decades. After allegedly masterminding a series of explosions in 1993, Mumbai, Dawood Ibrahim went underground and has stayed away from public glare all these years. He started out as a small-time criminal in the ’70s and rose up the ranks till he became one of the richest drug dealers on the planet. While his estimated wealth comes nowhere close to Pablo Escobar’s estimated $25 billion in 1989, Ibrahim continues to remain alive, at large and worth well over $7 billion

25B in 1989 would make Pablo one of the richest persons on earth. By comparison, today's most notorious narcos are not making the cut. It seems like "the business" has become more complicated than before.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/el-chapo-12-richest-drug-214253459.html


3016  Economy / Economics / Re: Really, why bitcoin has this value? on: October 20, 2021, 10:20:07 AM
Awww, again. It has value because there is a community of people that has decided so, a network worldwide that enables exchanging it, an underlying system with the right incentives and the right technology...  Now, ask yourself, why does a 100 USD bill have value? Because people trust it and because there is a community (USA) that accepts it as legal tender.

Why the change in price respective to other fiat? Offer and demand, there is no more to it. More people accept bitcoin, funds want to have it, countries accept it... less supply,... No need for a Elliptic Equation for this.
3017  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2020/21 on: October 20, 2021, 10:14:41 AM
This El Classico will be the first one without Messi and it can be a big El Classico to help Pedri, Gavi and Ansu Fati to shine and begin their legendary adventure.
Do you remember the first hattrick of Messi in El Classico when he was a teenager player? Ansu Fati can do the same if it is his day and it is Barcelona day.
The first one without Messi?

You mean he has been playing in El Clásico matches since 1902?  Cheesy

Barcelona will just be fine, but It isn't going to be an easy one for them. With Red Hot Benzema and Vinicius Junior, there are going to be some goals in the match and I look forward to not missing it

Yeah keep on thinking that Barca will be fine. Grin They are still trying to digest loosing their main player after years of relaying 50% of their result on that single person. The only thing to their advantage is that many teams are effectively digesting the very low budgets that they were able to come up this year. I would expect a deplorable result, only matching the level of confusion across the whole La Liga.
3018  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Fantasy on: October 20, 2021, 10:11:54 AM
Here is what I ended up with:
...
I screwed big time with Alonso, I actually realized my mistake yesterday but both Alonso and Azpilicueta went up in price for 0.1 and I did not have spare money to exchange them. I am happy with the rest of the team for a long time. Probably will have to do something with Alonso immediately.

Okay, what if you play with three forwards in the future? At the same time, take Tsimikas as a permanent reserve player, because he really seems to me to be a good defender on whom you can save money. I also have no doubt that Antonio is an excellent striker and a good candidate for the captain's position, but he is unlikely to keep that pace for a long time. In addition, today I turned my eyes to the standings, I see that some teams that did not start the season as well as we would like, sooner or later will start winning, (we will still see a long streak of victories from Leeds or Leicester, so I'm thinking of taking Vardy and Bamford).
I am playing with 3 forwards almost always. Bamford is on my shortlist since Leeds has great fixtures but he is injured. I am not considering Vardy since he is way to expensive for what he brings. Antonio is cheapest fixture proof attacking player in the game. I am ok with playing him against any opponent and I am sure he will bring some points. Almost on the level of Salah, Lukaku and Ronaldo but significantly cheaper. Also he is now worth 8.0M and I took him when he was just 7.5, meaning if I took him out I would not have money to bring him in again. He is staying there until season ends unless he gets lengthy injury.

I like to have squad where every player plays 90 minutes every single game, including bench players - you can see how this week Duffy will enter for Alonso and get me points. In case Cancelo gets rested Livramento will enter and give me more points. Tsimikas will play maybe one game in 5 and probably in Europe unless Robertson gets injured so no points in case of unexpected. Believe me unexpected happens quite often in FPL, who thought Ronaldo will start from the bench today?

It may be worth doing some "experiments" and start switching players and styles. I am not sure of the underlying logic, but there has to be a factor of penalty on repeating too often. This strategy would require preparing a team that has some wildcard players that may be less effective for an specific task, but can in exchange be adapted to the opponent better.
3019  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Metaverse x Gambling on: October 20, 2021, 10:09:07 AM
@OP, why not? NFTs are everywhere in talks nowadays and I believe that this will cause a huge expedition to take place in the world of NFTs and bring a new revolution. I was also thinking about this that some well-known players buy high quality 3D NFTs which can be used in a game that allows those NFTs to move. Games like virtual football, tennis, cricket and all where gamblers can predict the winners as well as scores same as we do in sportbooks and gamble their money. I hope this too becomes a reality very soon.

Metaverse is well linked to NTFs and crypto in general. I think that there are many complementary technologies that can make on-line gaming a much more enjoyable experience, for example mixing "second life" style metaverses with competition for NFT that can potentially be traded and all that with a number of casino and ability games imbedded into the metaverse. This looks a bit futuristic, but I think we are heading there.
3020  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Fake bets on: October 20, 2021, 10:06:21 AM
I guess you don't have to worry about gambling when you have unlimited sponsorship money! Grin So trusting such streamers is like trusting Twitter's shitcoin shillers!
Gambling is fundamentally unprofitable for players, and by trusting ads that are designed to attract new gamblers you increase the risks!

Seriously these streamers don't care about their audience.

See YouTubers like RiceGum, JapePual.
And recently I've started watching a streamer from the league community and he's promoting a well known gambling casino to their audience knowing full well the majority of the audience is under 18. But that solves after they put 18+ in the video but does that work for people who wants to break rules whenever they can?

I do not think that setting an age limit on the channel solves this problem because many children and teenagers watch YouTube without registration. They are gullible and very often try to get easy money. That's why I'm of the opinion that YouTube should tighten its policy for advertising fraud up to banning the channel without the possibility of restoring it. Only such measures will help clean up YouTube from promoting scams.

I agree, while young people normally have less experience of life, sometimes they are simply born astute, while others are not. And it also works differently in different aspects of life, for example, someone may be a very accomplished professional on some aspects of life and even be a tough negotiator, but then be quite gullible on regards to personal relations or gaming. Age is not determinant.
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