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3041  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: US 2020 Elections data, polls and bets on: November 05, 2020, 05:15:43 AM
The result is very close. The Democrats have the coronavirus and the riots to thank for the defeat of Trump. It would be a landslide for Trump if none of the craziness of 2020 have ever occured.

Who is the source of the coronavirus? Biden bettors should thank also that hehehe.

Also, congratulations to Kamala Harris for becoming the first American lady president. Biden will be declared unfit in 2 years.

Biden (if he wins) will be extremely thankful to the media. Without them, he could have never won states such as Wisconsin. If you remember, a fake poll from NBC had Biden leading by 17 points two days before the election day. Many of the Republican voters thought that Trump was going to lose by a huge margin and they abstained from voting. The same happened in other states such as Michigan and Nevada as well.
3042  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ODI cricket and general cricketing discussion [self - mod] on: November 05, 2020, 05:04:17 AM
I remember the England Ireland match where they chase down 320 something and usually the big teams does not play their best playing eleven while playing the associate nations but in that England line up i think Ben Stokes is the only major player that was missing and i do not remember the bowling line up they had in the match.

Even if England was missing a few of their players, it shouldn't matter much. Because for the past two decades, England has stolen the best cricket players produced by Ireland. Even if you take the example of the 3rd ODI (in which Ireland won), the Irish batsmen scored all the three centuries. But one of these batsmen was representing England and not Ireland.

All that said, the England playing XI was comprised of experienced players such as Morgan, Bairstow and Roy.
3043  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ODI cricket and general cricketing discussion [self - mod] on: November 04, 2020, 11:21:42 AM
Will be careful and most probably will be going for the underdog if Pakistan is involved  Grin.

It's not just Pakistan. Don't you remember the recent defeat of England against Ireland? If one of the larger teams are playing against an associate nation or a lower ranked nation such as Zimbabwe, I normally bet in favor of the latter. There is a very good chance that at least one out of the three matches will end up in an upset. The returns will be greater than what you normally get from betting in favor of teams such as England and Pakistan.
3044  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated on: November 04, 2020, 07:51:21 AM
Suddenly out of nowhere Wisconsin looks competitive. 8% votes yet to be counted and Trump is up by 4.1%. Kenosha County (where the riots occurred recently) is showing a big shift towards GOP. I would say that right now Wisconsin looks 50/50. Trump is still up in Michigan by 8.2%, but 28% of the votes are yet to be counted and I expect him to lose by 3-4 points. His lead in PA has been reduced to 13.4%, and 36% ballots remain there to be counted. And in Georgia, Trump is looking quite vulnerable.
3045  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated on: November 04, 2020, 06:41:06 AM
At this point, I would say that Biden is having a significant advantage. First it was his Arizona win which changed the course. Then he won the 2nd district of Nebraska. On top of this, he is having a comfortable lead in Nevada as well. So only way for Trump to win now is to get electoral votes from either Michigan or Wisconsin, in addition to Pennsylvania. And let's not forget the fact that the NYT needle is showing an advantage for Biden in Georgia.
3046  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated on: November 04, 2020, 04:58:53 AM
No Pennsylvania is 90%+ going to Biden. They just have to count the absentee ballots. 2.6 Million of them. We won't know until Friday.

Possible. But I guess at least some of the postal ballots are already counted. According to Fox News, with 54% of the votes counted, Trump is having a lead of around 15%. Most of the remaining votes are from Philadelphia and it is possible for Biden to close the gap.

Chances of a Trump re-election almost disappeared with the loss of Arizona. That state and its 11 electoral votes were so crucial. Now Trump needs to win at least one among these three - Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Just to add, Trump is far behind in NE-2, and therefore he will lose one crucial electoral vote. ME-2 looks very tight as of now.
3047  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated on: November 04, 2020, 04:24:11 AM
According to Fox News, Joe Biden wins Arizona. Now it becomes really difficult for Trump to get to the 270 mark. He can do that only if he wins Pennsylvania, and one among the western rust-belt states (MI/MN/WI). Nevada results can be important as well. In case Trump wins NV (chances are very low), then he still has a chance to go above 270.
3048  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated on: November 04, 2020, 03:16:02 AM
The battle now moves to Arizona, and it looks to me that Biden is in a very good position to get 11 electoral votes from this state.

More than 70% of the votes have been counted, and Biden is having a very large lead (9.5%). Similar to the case with OH, in the first phase they are counting the early in-person votes and postal votes. Election day in-person votes are being counted now, but Trump needs to win more than two-third of the remaining votes to have any chance here.

If Biden wins Arizona, he will be in a very good position to get at least 269 electoral votes.
3049  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated on: November 04, 2020, 02:38:46 AM
@suchmoon, I don't agree with you on Ohio.

Ohio first counts the postal ballots. I think this phase is over for most of the counties. In the second phase, in person ballots are being counted and that is why we are witnessing Trump gaining a lot of votes. In the third phase, the postal ballots which arrived during the last 3-4 days will be counted. Depending on their number, the third phase ballots will decide the outcome of the elections in Ohio. The same is the case with North Carolina as well. Most of the votes may be in counties won by Hillary in 2016. But these are in-person votes, and not postal votes.

Edit: With 70% of the votes in, Trump leading in OH by 0.6%. 15% remains in NC, and Biden leads by 26,000 (0.5%).
3050  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated on: November 04, 2020, 02:01:00 AM
Still think it's a landslide?

Did I ever think it's a landslide? Not sure. I'm getting senile but I think I'd remember something like that.

Maybe not you specifically.. But such confidence in a Biden win..

Are all the latest "polls" within ""margin of error""??

@suchmoon & @eddie13: enjoy the suspense rather than fighting. This election is much tighter than anyone thought it was. Obviously one of you will lose 0.1 BTC sometime this month (in case PA results come out within the next few weeks), but for now let's just sit back and enjoy the show.

Ohio and NC getting really interesting. In Ohio, Biden was ahead by 12.3% when 51% of the vote was counted. Now they have counted 56% and Biden is up by 8.2%. Biden is still leading in NC, but now they have started to count the in-person votes.

My guess: it will come down to Pennsylvania (unless Biden wins AZ). You guys need to wait 3-4 weeks to get results from PA.
3051  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated on: November 04, 2020, 01:37:25 AM
OK.. now they (NYT) changed North Carolina to +0.9 for Trump.

They are claiming that 62% of the votes are reported. But I checked Fox News, and they are reporting only 51%. Anyway, now it is more or less clear that sub-belt is getting swept by Trump. The race will shift to the rust-belt now.

Michigan numbers are confusing, so I'll leave that. With more than half of the votes counted, Ohio is showing a 12.3% lead for Biden. This should be troublesome for Trump. He need to get a lead of 13% from the remaining 49%.

Edit: Biden's lead down to 11.1% in Ohio as they start counting in-person votes.
3052  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated on: November 04, 2020, 01:09:03 AM
What is the situation in North Carolina? As far as I can see, very few votes have been counted there till now, but NYT is saying that Biden is having a two-third chance of winning NC. It looks very surprising, as I thought that FL was tighter than NC for Trump. BTW, huge shift in Miami-Dade county. Hillary won this county by 300,000 or so in 2016. Biden is having a lead of only around 85,000 now.
3053  Economy / Economics / Re: Are the Central Banks starting to worry about the public's perception? on: November 03, 2020, 05:59:16 AM
Do the banks need to worry about their perception in the public? IMO, they don't. At least that is the impression that I get, when I interact with the bank officials. They are well aware that they have an absolute monopoly in the financial sector. Almost every sub-sector is linked to the banks in one way or another. And on top of that, they have unlimited support from the governments and the authorities.
3054  Economy / Economics / Re: Venezuela Planning New 100,000-Bolivar Bills Worth Just $0.23 on: November 03, 2020, 05:48:07 AM
Probably Venezuela was for a short time the only country that came close to having again a gold standard but with copper and nickel.  Grin
Well.. this happened around three decades ago, when the former USSR collapsed. Hyperinflation made the smaller denomination coins almost worthless, and therefore people melting them to valuable metals such as copper, aluminium and nickel. Even from India, there were reports of scrap dealers melting the smaller coins, to extract steel (which were then mostly used for manufacturing shaving blades).
Hyperinflation is generally a terrible and frustrating force, and the government has the ability to do this and cannot cope with hyperinflation afterwards. Social populism never gives good results in the end, and no external actions can be justified. The laws of the economy can be canceled only for a while, but they are all equally boomerned afterwards. Capitalism is safe and cruel in its manifestations, but social populism is even worse in the end.

The gulf states (such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait) had many decades of extreme social populism, and look at what they have achieved. A large part of the Saudi population still remains poor, without adequate education or skill level. Now they are being forced to phase out the populist measures, as the oil prices are plunging. But the population got too used to it, and they are facing a lot of issues without the freebies.
3055  Economy / Economics / Re: PayPal to allow cryptocurrency buying, selling and shopping on its network on: November 03, 2020, 05:38:12 AM
You paid 9$ to send BTC somewhere (or receive it), using the BTC blockchain.

When you buy BTC on Paypal you're not really buying BTC, you're buying an IOU (I owe you), an abstraction. Nothing happens on the blockchain, so there is no fee related to a blockchain transaction.

It's the same on an exchange, to be honest, the fees you pay when buying BTC on an exchange are trading fees to pay for the service, once again nothing happens on the blockchain. However on an exchange you can then transfer BTC to your wallet, and then, you pay another fee, which this time is a fee to confirm the transaction on the blockchain.

Well... if this is the case, then I have a feeling that a lot of small-scale users may prefer using PayPal in their cryptocurrency dealings. Obviously those who value their privacy are never going to use it. But for those who already have a PayPal account and deals with very small amounts of crypto, PayPal looks OK. Anyway, in the end it comes to the user preference.
3056  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will you buy BTC from PayPal now that they are letting people do it? on: November 03, 2020, 05:28:01 AM
Same here. I kinda got hyped when I heard about this and I know they still have plans to upgrade their user's cryptocurrency experience but for now, I'll stick with my regular cryptocurrency platform. Transaction fees are still high anywhere and I know Paypal will be able to find a loophole to it so I'll buy some for now and wait things out for the meantime.

None of the cryptocurrency users I know are setting up their account in PayPal just because they want to trade in cryptocurrencies using their platform. A few already had their PayPal accounts, and they have purchased small amounts of crypto just out of curiosity. For experienced users, they don't need PayPal to deal in cryptos. Those who are doing it, is just out of curiosity.
3057  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Any idea when the Bitcoin Mempool will stop being so congested? on: November 03, 2020, 05:15:32 AM
You are lucky to be paying 4$, imagine being on bitmex, they are charging 50$ for one withdrawal in fee,
Most easy solution for now would be to pay atleast a fee above 10sat/byte and use tx accelerators like viabtc and try your luck every hour to get your transaction in the block. Nothing else much we can do!

LOL.. the last time I used transaction accelerator, they charged me $30 (when the median fee was going at $5). Their fee will always be much higher than the median transaction fee. If you don't want to pay this higher fees, then wait until it gets lower. There is no immediate solution for this. The number of users increase with every passing year and therefore the number of transactions are also rising. And the block size remains the same. SegWit and Lightning acted like patchwork, and they have failed in bringing down the size of mempool by a large amount.
3058  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: US 2020 Elections data, polls and bets on: November 03, 2020, 04:51:28 AM
What would be the chances of all these happening being inalignment with the election results?


We won't know until friday with all the tallying to know who won right?

Other states are OK. But Pennsylvania may take at least 2-3 weeks to count all the postal ballots. Many of the county officials have already said this. Florida has one of the best systems out there, and the counting should be very fast. Close to 100% of the ballots there may be counted by 4th morning. North Carolina officials are saying that around 97% of the votes will be counted by election day night. Now coming to the last state (Arizona), they have already started counting the postal ballots. However, there is a set of "late" absentee ballots, which may not be counted on election day night.
3059  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ODI cricket and general cricketing discussion [self - mod] on: November 03, 2020, 04:22:53 AM
As expected, the match between Pakistan and Zimbabwe turned out to be another one sided affair. The Zimbabwe batsmen did a somewhat decent job, but their bowlers failed once again. I don't understand the point in having a series such as this one, between two teams of unequal strength. Zimbabwe needs to be kept out, at least until their performance improves.
Although Zimbabwe lost the series but i don't agree that they should not play tournaments and series with big teams. These series will help them to find their mistakes and become a better team. If they don't play international cricket, their performance can never be improved.

Then the same logic should be applicable for teams such as Scotland and Nepal, right? They never get a chance to play against the bigger teams, while Zimbabwe plays 95% of their matches against such teams. I have no problem if Zimbabwe plays 50% of their matches against the top teams. But why can't the ICC ask them to play the remaining 50% against teams such as Scotland?
3060  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated on: November 03, 2020, 04:11:15 AM
First will be eastern parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 6pm EST. Polls will close in Eastern Florida at 7pm EST. A large chunk of results will be available immediately after the closing of polls, because states such as Florida will start counting the postal ballots on election day morning. They will be releasing the results as soon as the polls close. But there are states such as Georgia, which will start tabulating the postal ballots only after the polls close.

In states such as Florida, where the early ballots are counted first, there may be a "Blue mirage" during the initial few hours. But as election day votes start to get counted, a "red shift" will occur. And in the end, late postal ballots will be counted and this will again shift the momentum to Blue. The exact opposite will happen in states such as Pennsylvania, where election day votes will be counted first.

For more details, check this: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

Please refer this map, to know the poll closing times (all in EST).


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