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321  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Black Arrow 28nm 100Ghash Bitcoin ASIC from $1.99/GH/s, miners from $2.97/GH/s on: February 03, 2014, 05:09:51 AM

What you consider an asshole, sick bastard rubbing it in, I consider using satire to get the word out that the end is neigh and people should start requesting refunds ASAP. Ironically, from you post, you echo the same sentiment.
Hey asshole, I have 16 shares in r17. I don't need your fucking satire. I put faith in the wrong company and I don't need some wanker telling me I fucked up.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=173316.msg4067307#msg4067307

According to what's found at the above link, not only did you put faith in a wrong company, but you spread good cheer for one, not heeding nary a warning by me or others. Now, you want me to shut the fuck up so that I don't warn others in making the same mistake I once tried to warn you about. One of us is seriously fucked up, mate, and it ain't me.
Yeah I made a mistake. I also tried to steer people away from cloudhashing. You on the other hand asked people for 5 Btc then upped it to 10 Btc to tell them they have been screwed by BA. You look like a vulture, smell like a vulture, are a vulture. Only people with low self esteem take pleasure in saying they are right after everyone has suffered. Seriously, you need help. There is no honour in you. You're not doing this out of the goodness of your heart. There is no goodness in you. I am done with you.
322  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Black Arrow 28nm 100Ghash Bitcoin ASIC from $1.99/GH/s, miners from $2.97/GH/s on: February 03, 2014, 04:37:15 AM

What you consider an asshole, sick bastard rubbing it in, I consider using satire to get the word out that the end is neigh and people should start requesting refunds ASAP. Ironically, from you post, you echo the same sentiment.
Hey asshole, I have 16 shares in r17. I don't need your fucking satire. I put faith in the wrong company and I don't need some wanker telling me I fucked up.
323  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Black Arrow 28nm 100Ghash Bitcoin ASIC from $1.99/GH/s, miners from $2.97/GH/s on: February 03, 2014, 04:22:57 AM

I'm curious, hence asking. When Black Arrow final pulls a Monty Python parrot, which one of the following three choices sticks it up their investomer's asses first: Black Arrow, the vaporware maker?; Black Arrow's dozen, or so, resellers?; Or the various security outfits, pretending to be banked on the vaporware maker Black Arrow's performance?

I know, I know, that choosing the first one is hard, for each has been seriously vetted by the others, but give it your best shot nonetheless.

Take your time answering, but don't take too long, for the refund line is stretched around the corner. Not that corner, but the next one, directly after the other two. Apologies for the long line, but it seems that nobody from Black Arrow has come to the door to see what all the commotion is about, let along check to see if they have any new checks in the mail. Perhaps, all these folks waiting are at the wrong address. Nope, that ain't it! Right address, but wrong zip code.

Oh well! At least everybody in line got to meet everybody else, and now call all walk away whistling "Bitcoin mining is only a hobby to me...", with their heads held high, proudly knowly that they met bigger fools than thou.

~TMIBTCITW
At this point, you are adding nothing except misery to those who are already likely to be out of pocket. What kind of sick bastard rubs it in? Asshole.
324  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today BTC = $800, $9200 to go and why 10 BTC will never make you rich on: February 03, 2014, 02:11:44 AM

In a functioning credit market, capital goes where it is best used, but decades of artificially low interest rates and years of ZIRP have distorted the market to the point where it is basically unfixable without triggering the Mother Of All Corrections. So they won't fix it. They'll keep printing. Yellen basically admitted as much in confirmation hearings. Anyone could have predicted what happened when the banks were bailed out. It's called "moral hazard". Save someone from the consequence of their foolish actions and they are MORE (not less) likely to repeat them. There are still house-flipping shows on cable TV. Nobody learned anything so we're all gonna repeat it, bigger and better than ever. They will kick the can. There is no other politically viable option.
I am now asking myself, is it even politically viable for the Fed to continue with QE?  I'm starting to question that.

I am also asking, if QE continues, will emerging markets and China continues with credit creation?  I'm also starting to question that.  See India's central bank response to Fed's QE taper and China's forecasted slowdown in 2014. 

More QE could simply end with stagflation. 

I agree that's likely, but stagflation is better from the policy-maker's perspective than the alternative. That's the dilemma they are in.
Stagflation = high unemployment, low GDP growth, high inflation. 

This will end up with a Volcker type Fed = high interest rates.

Yellen could be a one term Chairperson.
325  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today BTC = $800, $9200 to go and why 10 BTC will never make you rich on: February 03, 2014, 01:56:03 AM

In a functioning credit market, capital goes where it is best used, but decades of artificially low interest rates and years of ZIRP have distorted the market to the point where it is basically unfixable without triggering the Mother Of All Corrections. So they won't fix it. They'll keep printing. Yellen basically admitted as much in confirmation hearings. Anyone could have predicted what happened when the banks were bailed out. It's called "moral hazard". Save someone from the consequence of their foolish actions and they are MORE (not less) likely to repeat them. There are still house-flipping shows on cable TV. Nobody learned anything so we're all gonna repeat it, bigger and better than ever. They will kick the can. There is no other politically viable option.
I am now asking myself, is it even politically viable for the Fed to continue with QE?  I'm starting to question that.

I am also asking, if QE continues, will emerging markets and China continues with credit creation?  I'm also starting to question that.  See India's central bank response to Fed's QE taper and China's forecasted slowdown in 2014. 

More QE could simply end with stagflation. 
326  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today BTC = $800, $9200 to go and why 10 BTC will never make you rich on: February 02, 2014, 07:47:40 AM


Money printing IS credit creation.


no, it isn't directly..  credit creation creates more debt money that gets cancelled out when debt paid, money printing is an absolute increase

Unless we are just arguing semantics, you have made a conceptual error. We're not talking literal money printing which is done by the dept. of Treasury and accounts for a small fraction of the money supply. We're discussing the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet which can only occur when the fed conjures money out of thin air to lend it to someone, usually the government, but increasingly other markets like mortgage-backed securities. This money doesn't exist before it's lent. It's just an entry onto the Fed's ledger.

of course all loans must be repaid WITH INTEREST, and since all new money is created by debt, there isn't enough money in the world to repay all the debts plus interest. More money is created to pay the interest payments. But that's a little off topic.

More money is created when new Fed money is deposited in private banks and re-lent. This is called the money multiplier and it's usually estimated to be around 10X as much as the original Fed expansion, but it can vary greatly depending on how much is kept at the deposit bank as a reserve. Since 2008, banks have held an uncharacteristically high amount in reserve, partly because the fed pays them interest for reserved they keep on overnight deposit at the Fed itself. This is why we haven't (yet) seen as much inflation as many have predicted.

The "absolute increase" in money you mention is canceled out when the fed sells the bonds or whatever it put on it's balance sheet when the money was created. So it's no more absolute than any other kind of credit. They are effectively the same thing.
Multiplier is 2.2 to 1.7 over one year.
327  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today BTC = $800, $9200 to go and why 10 BTC will never make you rich on: February 02, 2014, 07:35:11 AM


Money printing IS credit creation.


no, it isn't directly..  credit creation creates more debt money that gets cancelled out when debt paid, money printing is an absolute increase

 

I don't believe money printing is debt creation because we have seen a commensurate rise in bank reserves.

we have also seen a rise in debt.... huge debt.

the banks own the credit.....
people own the debt....
Yes, government debt is up. Corporate debt is up. Housing debt is down. Student debt is up. Car debt is up. Overall, slightly up but not for much longer. The US has not hit escape velocity nor will it.
328  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today BTC = $800, $9200 to go and why 10 BTC will never make you rich on: February 02, 2014, 07:28:07 AM


Money printing IS credit creation.


no, it isn't directly..  credit creation creates more debt money that gets cancelled out when debt paid, money printing is an absolute increase

 

I don't believe money printing is debt creation because we have seen a commensurate rise in bank reserves.
329  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today BTC = $800, $9200 to go and why 10 BTC will never make you rich on: February 02, 2014, 06:17:40 AM
I work in financial services and deflation is much more a reality at this point unless yellen prints more after ben's farewell, in which case we might see very high inflation in the US. However, the political cost to the fed will be significant after QE3. So I think it is more likely deflation will hit and a recession ensue. Also, I believe that emerging technology will move us away from gas at $300 per gallon.


Yellen will almost certainly print. She was vetted to be a reliable printer. If she wasn't, she wouldn't have been confirmed. Yes, without QEternity, deflation is inevitable, but it won't happen because when your only tool is a printing press, every problem looks like a liquidity problem. We are not dealing with Paul Volker here. When the government starts screaming for more counterfeit fiat, they will get it and we will be screwed, unless we are holding bitcoin, that is. 

The Government is insolvent. The Banks are insolvent. The citizens are insolvent. The only two possible outcomes are deflationary systemic collapse soon or hyperinflationary systemic collapse later. Politicians and Fed Chairmen rarely see or care beyond the next election cycle, so they will kick the can. It's as close to a certainty as you can get.

Ok. Lets say Yellen prints but China's economy corrects, then what? Without credit creation we are still facing deflation, no?
330  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [Closed]R17x: Black Arrow Prospero X-3 <DZMC Exclusive> $130 / 40GHS on: February 02, 2014, 03:38:36 AM
This thread is too funny! Thanks to Matt Carson and Matt X, I now offer up the follow: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=294197.msg4884523#msg4884523

Quote
As an added bonus, for those asking themselves "Who the hell is James Hilliard?", perhaps I can help, albeit there's only one tiny caveat: It'll cost you $5,000 USD via BTC if you don't know how to use Google. Simply hit me up via a PM, whereupon I'll provide you a bitcoin wallet address to pay me that $5,000, then I'll share with you some startling information that will just blow your ass away. It's such a small price to pay, especially for those that may have pre-orders at some other unnamed site (hint) and desire to be first on its refund list, in which case saving you perhaps tens of thousands of dollars more.

Since I'm such a good guy, even though Matt X has demanded you all put me on ignore, I'll share the following for free: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:eCD_qOXvJF8J:www.updown.com/member/borito4/networks+&cd=6&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

For those who know how to Google hop, the James Hilliard connection is not too far away. For those who don't, 5Gs via BTC. Trust me, you'll come way ahead if you pay me for the info if you can't find it yourself. And, for those who do find it, please keep it to yourself, for it's time for me be make bank after all I've done for free, then take it up the ass from those that later turned out to be scammers. The pattern is exactly the same here with Black Arrow. Make no mistake.

I'm putting my reputation on the line with this one, while Matt X only has his throwaway pseudonym at risk.

James Hilliard!!! Remember that name.

~TMIBTCITW
PG I appreciate your efforts to enlighten us all, but right now you are just coming off looking like a vulture and feasting on our carcasses. Seriously, 5 Btc? Wtf.
331  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today BTC = $800, $9200 to go and why 10 BTC will never make you rich on: February 02, 2014, 03:17:48 AM

ok then you do know the area I am talking about. BTC's run up consists of a few variables and I was just pointing out the part where dollar destruction (which many people cling to as the reason to invest in btc) will also raise the price of anything else with value so there isn't a wealth gain with that jump.

Other areas can rise and crash the BTC price in relation to other things but those are different cases

The interesting thing with the Fed you mention is true, but they figured out that with the drop in credit creation, all that money printing pretty much just balanced the equation which is why we never really saw inflation go crazy (and yes inflation deals with more factors like velocity that is slowed from stagnation in wages)

So, if Yellen keeps tapering, we will probably see an uptick in more lending to fend off deflation..  but wages will probably need to rise as well since many folks aren't going to take real loans when tapped out. (the crazy college loans & car loans continue though)

one area is the shift to investor home ownership and tenant renters.. that will probably keep velocity really slow and prices stagnate  (American Homes 4 Rent, etc)


If yellen tapers deflation will ensue, not more lending. Money printing did not balance out the equation per se. It pushed down long term interest rates which encouraged speculative credit flows giving the illusion of wealth via asset price appreciation. Wages cannot rise in taper scenario as there is already inadequate consumption and corporations will retrench leading again to excessive labour capacity. Car and college loans cannot continue indefinitely as college loan defaults are near parabolic and car loan interest are ticking up plus the fact that car volumes are at pre GFC highs. Moreover, credit creation is not happening in the US as GDP growth of around 2% shows. Credit creation due to cheap dollars was occurring in emerging markets, especially China which created new credit equivalent to 36% of China's GDP in 2013.  Other emerging markets also did so but at lower but still dangerous levels. Fed taper ends this as USD starts to appreciate and the global reserve currency becomes more expensive. The global economy is fubar as emerging markets crumble.
332  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today BTC = $800, $9200 to go and why 10 BTC will never make you rich on: February 02, 2014, 01:25:38 AM
like all these valuations..  even if BTC equals $100,000 someday, perhaps a gallon of gas might be $300 so you don't really gain anything with BTC but preserve your wealth..  like with gold for the most part.

so watch what you wish for  Lips sealed
Or BTC could be $1 million and we don't use gas at all. What is the point of pointless speculation?


obviously if you don't see the point you think it is pointless..  what a world you must live in..  nothing exists unless you already understand it!!!

perhaps if you asked nicely I would of bother learning ya but these days people just slam someone and expect someone to rush to prove their point..  nah, people used to ask with some civility when there was a concept that they didn't seem to fully grasp

stay in the dark
Firstly, let me apologise for slamming you. I could've worded it differently. I work in financial services and deflation is much more a reality at this point unless yellen prints more after ben's farewell, in which case we might see very high inflation in the US. However, the political cost to the fed will be significant after QE3. So I think it is more likely deflation will hit and a recession ensue. Also, I believe that emerging technology will move us away from gas at $300 per gallon.
333  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [Closed]R17x: Black Arrow Prospero X-3 <DZMC Exclusive> $130 / 40GHS on: February 02, 2014, 01:12:19 AM

I quoted the refund policy from the OP and the refund policy from the web site (both of which are still there!). Refunds are available up until unit ships at 1.5% restock fee.  They aren't even offering full refunds, they are offering a 1.5% restock fee, which could well add up to a lot of money (certainly a whole lot more than transaction costs on BTC payments).

What you quoted is from post #2. I have no idea when that was added, and it isn't referenced in the OP (i.e. nowhere does it say "see post #2 for the terms of this offer").  One can not be expected to read the entire  thread before buying in, when the offer is made in post #1 and there is link there to buy (and the link leads to a site with the very same refund policy).

Any real-world business that made these commitments in these places and then refused to honor them would be sued (and would lose) and could also be prosecuted for fraud (if the authorities felt in was a big enough deal to pursue). Attempting to rely on a different policy posted in another place that people buying in may well not have seen would and should fail.

Furthermore, the "refund until shipping" was a standing policy of DZMC (which is why it appears in the boilerplate part of the OP), which was cheerfully honored on R14 (and I trust rated them favorably for it). Nowhere was it ever clearly stated to those buying in that this standing policy was being changed.

You are on the wrong side of this one. Many people look to be in the process of being scammed (though I too hope it doesn't turn out that way) and you keep trying to defend the scammers on the basis of a series of several different but all bogus arguments that don't hold up. I have no idea what your agenda is, but you should really just stop.

I am an investor and nothing else. How many shares in r17 do you have? I have 16. If you think you can enforce the refund policy you cited, do so. Even if you succeed, the coop will have no money to reimburse you as they gave it to BA. R17 refund policy was clear to me because I'm an adult and did my own due diligence.  ATM, we are just spamming the thread. I have nothing more to say about this as I can see you will keep going on with this.
334  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [ANN]ASICMiner Publicly Looking for Potential Customers/Partners for New Chips on: February 02, 2014, 12:55:58 AM
Interesting news, and I have to admit I'm rather puzzled why a company that makes no secret of it's mining activities wants to make it's hardware publicly available? Is it altruism or something else? In the commercial world, despite what is said in public, companies do not 'welcome' competition - they hate it and will do almost anything to eliminate it. Anyone who thinks or believes otherwise is an idiot.

I'm also concerned that many, many miners reading this information will only see the headline $/GH figures of '0.5 to 1' and imagine that you're going to be purchasing hardware at anywhere near those figures - you're not, as the chip cost is only a part of total rig cost and unless you're going to be buying the chips and their associated pcb's, psu's and controllers in volume then the figures you more likely to be looking at are $2.0 - $2.5/GH. Yes, I know it's much better that what's available right now, but that will change soon.

Got to hand it to Asicminer though. Nice pitch and nice to see that someone has finally paid some real attention to their sha256 silicon implementation rather than just using the standard blocks and recognised that you don't need 28 or 20nm to make a very efficient hashing chip.
No altruism I can detect. AM is just saying they have the best chip and realises they are chip experts. Why mess with the other stuff where they have no competitive edge. Best to sell chips to maximise ROI. Also AM has learnt that dominating hash is not good for bitcoin, so by distributing their chip widely they are protecting themselves by protecting bitcoin. AM has done the maths and this is a calculated move.
335  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today BTC = $800, $9200 to go and why 10 BTC will never make you rich on: February 02, 2014, 12:50:46 AM
like all these valuations..  even if BTC equals $100,000 someday, perhaps a gallon of gas might be $300 so you don't really gain anything with BTC but preserve your wealth..  like with gold for the most part.

so watch what you wish for  Lips sealed
Or BTC could be $1 million and we don't use gas at all. What is the point of pointless speculation?
336  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [Closed]R17x: Black Arrow Prospero X-3 <DZMC Exclusive> $130 / 40GHS on: February 02, 2014, 12:47:44 AM
Well they don't have the money to honor it, unless I'm mistaken. So no point complaining further. Enforce it with a lawyer if you can. I have 16 shares in r17. I'll be lucky to get half back.

This community runs on reputation and trust first, legalities may come into it, but we will see. I personally don't have enough at stake here to pursue legal action on my own. I would consider joining with larger stake holders, however.

Trust and reputation are exactly why you are 100% wrong about there being no point in "complaining" further. This will be discussed and kept in the forefront as long as the issue is outstanding, which is as it should be.

You're just hurting your own reputation. The refund policy is here:

Refunds: Refunds are discouraged because of the chaos caused in Group Buys, but if necessary, you will be refunded before the miner is paid for, at a 1.5% restock fee.

Let's keep this thread clean and our fingers crossed that bobsag3 can get our money back or workout a deal with asicminer on their chips. BA should not have spent the money on a non competitive chip. They did wrong there by going ahead (or claiming to anyway) and not telling anyone until after the fact.
337  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [Closed]R17x: Black Arrow Prospero X-3 <DZMC Exclusive> $130 / 40GHS on: February 02, 2014, 12:34:12 AM
Hugely disappointed, especially with the communication. DZ This was a major event and you could/should have at very least pm'd the members of R17. Even now, skimming the thread I still cannot perceive what the real situation is, what you are doing about it, and what our prospects are for delivery or refund?

I would urge people to keep the expletives and angry posts to a minimum, as it just makes it difficult to spot the real useful information.

On the bright side (glass half full), for those like me who also hedged in KNC Neptune shares, you should recover some of your lost BA money there, as a large part of the future difficulty increase was attributable to BA shipping on time. Neptunes should be far more profitable (and likely to deliver).

I also consider myself very lucky, I came into some money, and very nearly ordered 2 of the units directly from BA, but have been burned by Chinese ethics before so didn't.
BA is owned by westerners, just like bfl and terrahash. The only two stand up operators i know of are knc and asicminer. Ethics all look the same to me, it has no colour. They are all human.
338  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today BTC = $800, $9200 to go and why 10 BTC will never make you rich on: February 01, 2014, 05:04:44 PM
A price of let's say, even 10,000 will make the 1k BTC holder worth 100 million USD.

But, a current BTC holder of 10 BTC will have what? 1 MIL USD? That's nothing.

1k x 10,000 = 10 million
10 x 10,000 = 100k

Yes, fail. I wrote the post for 10k holders but then modified it. Anyway, you got my point.

Never is a very long time... If just 1% of global wealth goes into bitcoin, bitcoin's market cap will rise to some astronomical number.  Bitcoin will become its own asset class. It will be a deflationary asset class. In an inflationary world, that makes an extremely valuable asset to hold on to.
339  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [Closed]R17x: Black Arrow Prospero X-3 <DZMC Exclusive> $130 / 40GHS on: February 01, 2014, 01:17:01 PM
Nothing complicated. DZ coop is an at cost coop. They take the money they give the money to bobsag3 to get the best deal with blackarrow, as he is their US reseller. DZ coop will refund us if they have the money and haven't paid BA. But if they don't have the money because they paid BA they can't refund us. That is what an at cost coop is. Kapeesh?

That may be your view.

Perhaps they shouldn't have offered refunds prior to shipping (in which case I would not have bought in).  I guess that would be your advice to them given your perspective above, and perhaps it would be good advice (though they seem to have an agenda of growing their business, and certainly offering a good refund policy, and even honoring it as they did on R14 probably helps to grow a business, so who knows).

But that is water under the bridge. They did offer it, I relied on it when deciding to buy in, and now I expect them to honor it.
Well they don't have the money to honor it, unless I'm mistaken. So no point complaining further. Enforce it with a lawyer if you can. I have 16 shares in r17. I'll be lucky to get half back.
340  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [Closed]R17x: Black Arrow Prospero X-3 <DZMC Exclusive> $130 / 40GHS on: February 01, 2014, 07:42:05 AM
Did you understand that DZ coop is an "at cost" coop? Yes or no?

Look I don't know what goes on behind the scenes. Is there any actual transparency here? They charge fees which on the surface seem totally reasonable (and I have said so when others have complained) but without auditing their books I have no idea what their costs really are. I also have no knowledge of what their dealings with Black Arrow might be in this regard. They seem to be rather closely involved, or at least they wanted to portray it that way when selling the deal.

I know that when you make an offer with a refund policy you better stand by that.  If you won't or can't, well...I guess we'll see what happens. It's really that simple. No need to complicate things here.

Nothing complicated. DZ coop is an at cost coop. They take the money they give the money to bobsag3 to get the best deal with blackarrow, as he is their US reseller. DZ coop will refund us if they have the money and haven't paid BA. But if they don't have the money because they paid BA they can't refund us. That is what an at cost coop is. Kapeesh?
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