Depends on what you consider competitive.
For example, I consider Bitcoin a long term investment and don't care about "mining at a loss."
I consider competitive to mean relative to when I started mining, I will at least be making enough for my funds, in Bitcoin, to grow.
At this, I consider 0.1BTC/day expected to be competitive at a power consumption that doesn't make me have to worry about mining 24-7 and emptying my bank account noticeably.
Therefore, I have determined that competitive for me is 0.1BTC/day at under 100W.
Assuming a BFL 30W, 30GH/s unit, this would place me "competitive" until the network hashrate is a bit over 1.05PH/s. aka a difficulty of 146.68 million.
I expect us to approach this number, but not reach it, at the end of this year. I expect 800TH/s by the end of the year.
At 30W though, I'll likely keep mining because it's only 30W, assuming BFL actually delivers on numbers.

If we put that into a profit number, you can't really do that because the BTC exchange rate is changing and theoretically will be up year to year once it stabilizes. Both because of the deflation of Bitcoin and the deflation of other currencies.
Let's assume Bitcoin stays ~$30 indefinitely. In that case, you are looking at non-profitability at 2.75PH/s assuming an Avalon ASIC and a 0.10$ electrical cost.
I just calculated that briefly though so if someone sees I am off in my decimal point positioning (which would be pretty major), please let me know.
This, of course, does not add into the calculations the actual cost of the initial unit.

Slightly off topic but interesting:
At the current difficulty, you need 28.92GH/s to make 10.25USD/hour assuming you hash 24-7 but account for a 40 hour work-week.
At the 800TH/s, you need 388.44GH/s to make 10.25USD/hour assuming you hash 24-7 but account for a 40 hour work-week.
The federal US minimum wage is $7.25/hour
$10.25/hour (currently 10USD) is Canadian minimum wage. $11.28/hour (currently 11USD) is Canadian minimum wage if you work from home.
The UK minimum wage is the equivalent of 9.30USD/hour (£6.19)

Edit: regarding your title, there is nothing after the "ASIC" generation except more efficient ASICs. We'll be entering into an efficiency, performance and process race like with modern CPUs.

Not many people would use standard engineering notation for BTC above 1. I know I would be much more likely to write 1 million BTC or 1,000,000 BTC. People don't currently use engineering notation for older currencies so why would they use it for Bitcoin? With the exception of smaller units since this is a new concept. To my knowledge, the largest number of decimal places of current currencies is 2.
So I think people will say things like 1,000,000 BTC, 0.1BTC and 10 mBTC. I find the use of Kilo, Mega etc. unlikely. That's just what I think though.

Please make it easier for us and tell us which mining program you installed. There are lots.

How do you know he didn't mean:
Fuck. Read what you just wrote.

Why not correct the OP's grammar instead, though? I'm sure that would be more useful to the thread and in trying to understand what it is about.  

The Bitcoin market cap is now 77% of Jay-Z's net worth in Nov. 2011 [source:http://xkcd.com/980/huge]

Discuss.

I'll start.

I've never really put it in perspective but damn. Bitcoin is so small. I mean, the market cap of Bitcoin only became worth more than a single airbus A380 just earlier this month.
Putting this in perspective, along with all the newer businesses and bitpay this year... is the value increasing really a surprise?

So to sum up what this topic discussion is about:
1. What are your thoughts on Bitcoin's current and potential value?
2. Do you think Bitcoin is small?
3. What do we know about the theoretical market capitalization of "corporate/store currencies?" And what are your thoughts on them? For example, Canadian Tire money is practically cash in Canada.
4. Let's let this discussion stray wherever it wants to go. This could be interesting and maybe give some perspective.

The following are Nov. 2011 values.

Reached

Next stops:

I'll be looking for interesting stops and updating. I will also come back when these goals are reached. If you get excited and I haven't updated it yet, feel free to give me a pm.

Also, I will only be altering this thread when price goes up, not down. So whatever you see here is the top of the market at some point. I am also going strictly by whatever the largest USD exchange is at the time.

But neither of you are even close to the thermal limit. I know from experimentation that a 6950 will thermal throttle at 102-103*C. Blame XFX's crappy coolers (their single fan ones anyway) for my knowledge about this.
Even that said, 78-84*C is normal. It is not hot. Especially considering the load Bitcoin mining puts on the cards. When you are approaching 90*C, that is when you should maybe start to be concerned about the longevity of the card (Anyone remember the 4870 single slot? Those things certainly had electromigration after a few years. A lot of cards 88-100*C load.)

rUwiQgNJ6jjP4pHNur7LitvzLxyck9Ux2b

In that case, would you mind changing the #of threads dropdown to a fixed number we can change, without trying to detect the cores? On my Atrix, SGS and Nexus 7, more than 1 thread is not an option in the menu until I have changed the orientation to horizontal.
Have you been able to figure out why the miner stops mining and all the fields go back to default when the orientation changes?
If you have abandoned development on this project, have you considered making it open source?

Here's a thread about it:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=8384.0

That said, I forgot that AMD only introduced it with their 6xxx series cards so it definitely wouldn't account for your 5830s. What are your temps by the way?

pm any offers.

My advice is to treat is as if total hashrate will be 600-1000TH/s by the time you get the units. And to also understand it is a risky investment. If you like risky investments, go right ahead.
Take into consideration your power bill and account for possible downtime.
Don't forget about the risk of exchange rate, also.

Thanks

Mirror link:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B1fvS-7vLyHjeURRMHJjRlVwM0U/edit?usp=sharing
md5sum unzipped file: 53aa8f3dbd54a425ab484e454f50580c
password: password

edit: google marked it as a virus so I had to password protect the file. use 7-zip (http://www.7-zip.org/) to extract under windows

I've looked at mine and determined it is a combination of heat and AMD power control.
When I up the AMD power control to +20, I can get the old rates but of course both heat and power increase so it isn't sustainable.
I've also determined that the thermal throttling of the 6950 is 102.5*C. It will clock down about every 2 minutes, for about a second, which is why I didn't notice the throttling before. At a glance, I will likely still be looking at 830MHz.
I can sustain under the throttle limit probably until the outside temperature hits 10*C, where I am. At which point, I hope BFL finally delivers...
Don't worry about my card's longevity people, It has double lifetime warranty XFX has already replaced my fan once because it broke.

So try cranking up the AMD power control to +20 if heat is not an issue and you are using windows.

404'd again.

You jinxed it.

edit: bad spelling.

Not many responses recently. Let's see....

1BTC can buy you a radeon 6450, sans tax.

Then you can make it all back in 2-3 years, taking into account difficulty change but not electricity.

It is partly a guess on my part. The 4670 was the most popular 4600 series and the 4650 is the only other model.

The people commenting and saying things like "don't mine" and "it's not profitable" need to stop. OP is asking for help on a mining software or hardware issue and is not asking for advice on his mining habits. Your intentions may be good but you come across as an annoyance that fills up the thread. Once one person mentions that he is wasting his time, there is no need for 5 other people to chime in. It has been established that the OP knows this.
OP also never said he wanted to make money. Stop assuming people mine for the same reasons you do. I don't know what he wants out of mining and I don't care because it isn't my business.


He has a 4670, if you read the dump. The HD4000 series introduces OpenCL support. Although I have not tried a 4000 series, the hardware wiki suggests they work, at least, worked with the older miner versions used to test them.
They all support OpenCL 1.0. The integrated 4xxx series don't because they are actually RV620. Just like the 3xxx integrated are actually RV610. I can't imagine any devs working on miners caring about compatibility with these cards though.


I am only aware of a single GUI miner program with a tray icon: GUIminer. You say there are 5 others?

Some things to try:
-try CGminer and see if it runs.
-instead of formatting your system, use another hard drive or boot linux and install a miner
-try the video card in another system that you know works.
-try another video card in this system and see if it works.
-test and see if CPU mining also crashes
-check if OpenCL is installed (run a program called GPU-Z and see if the OpenCL checkbox is checked)
-update AMD/ATI drivers and make sure OpenCL is installed

These experiments should help you isolate the issue and if it is software or hardware.

As of right now, you are not providing enough information for someone to be able to help you other than to simply give you generic troubleshooting ideas, as I have.

It takes money to make money. If you are only willing to invest 140USD, do not expect large returns, especially if you order this late in the game. By the time you get your unit, I expect the hashrate to be ~300TH/s. A 4.5GH/s unit will generate 0.054BTC/day under those conditions. This /day value will also decrease over time. Expect maybe 6BTC by end of year, currently valued at ~166USD.
This is my opinion on what you should expect as a moderately bad scenario but the value of BTC could be higher or lower and the hashrate could be as low as 200TH/s or maybe higher. My point is, don't look at bitcoin mining as a way to make quick money. Think of it more the same way you would investing directly in bitcoin: a longer-term investment.
Just my opinion.

At this point, they can't reasonably expect delivery until July, at least. By then, by my guess, the hashrate should be at least 300-400GH/s. This would be their starting point. Optimistically, the network growth should have become constant by then. So by my guess, 13-18 BTC/day. This will last for 14 days and decrease. The decrease will happen every 14 days. These are based on my calculations around the information I've gathered about Avalon, ASICminer and BFL. (20+40/12+72/55+??) and BFL_Josh's claims on delivery if you pre-order now.

I am assuming that all companies can get their initial products shipped/operational by the end of March and will be building and shipping additional units at a more gradual pace after that.
Assuming BFL ships all their chips by the end of the year and everyone else in the game doubles by the end of the year, we are sitting at just under 900TH/s on Jan. 1, 2014.
So let's say an eventual decline from 13BTC/day to 6BTC/day, by year end. Let's assume they get it late July: so ~11 target periods. Lets say 50TH/s increase per target period from 400 to 900
T1 -189
T2 -168
T3 -151
T...
T11 - 84

=1361 BTC = 37563.6 USD before power cost at current exchange rate
So, assuming you paid in BTC, you could expect to earn all your BTC back by end of year. If you didn't pay in BTC, you can only hope the exchange rate holds up to what it is now.

This is my take, since I am bored at the moment. But I am also tired, so my calculations could be off