You still need two digits in your month, otherwise Dirty Keyboard's script is not going to pick up your report.

My point is not so much about the timeline exactly, even though I agree that having a longer timeline should allow for pacing of the investing - yet all along, any of us should know that at any time, our investment in bitcoin could go to zero, so we could lose up to 100% of our investment, and we could also lose some variation in-between 0% and 100%, since bitcoin is also not guaranteed to make any kind of a profit.

There surely is the other side of the ledger that should also establish that it is possible for BTC prices to appreciate greatly, so that remains part of the nature of an asymmetric bet.. a possibility of losing up to 100% (and no more if you do not leverage), but also there are various upside possibilities too, that contributes to abilities to potentially profit several times more than 100%, depending on how either side of the scenario plays out, and surely there have been many of us who have already profited stupendously in bitcoin, so we likely have decently sized profit cushions, yet there are also people who are more recent entrants into bitcoin, and surely bitcoin's price is generally up so a large number of folks who have been buying regularly and consistently over recent times are likely to be in profits, even though more recent entrants may or may not be in profits, and new entrants into bitcoin have to consider the various ways that they might want to get into bitcoin, including my own ongoing recommendation that anyone new to bitcoin should get started right away, and sure s/he may have to figure out details at a later date.

We have some failure to go up and some stalling, perhaps consolidation within noman's land, but we still have not broken below $60k.. so why all the doomy gloomy?

yeah, we have some ongoing attacks on self-custody.. and are they going to keep ramping up such self-custody attacks? 

Even some of the BIG players would prefer for their ETFs to go up rather than down.. so if the powers that be are attacking the thing that actually makes bitcoin valuable (which is self-custody), then they can ONLY make money from the fees, and sure maybe that is all that they want, but I also consider that they likely realize that killing bitcoin would not be to their own interest, and so how do they just "kind of" kill it without really killing it?

A lot of precarious positions in this debt-burdened and contradictory unsustainable fiat world that also wants to sink our lil precious rescue boats.

I don't know if I understand that video since I seem to be doing them the "incorrect" way.  I tend to have my hands somewhat wide and also my feet tend to be a bit wide too.. but maybe I will experiment on some of my nexts sets.. perhaps?

I understand that the narrower our hands and including even keeping our hands together is a modified form of pushup that makes them harder to do, and I am largely just trying to do normal pushups, even though I am not completely opposed to the idea of making them harder - although I consider whatever that I am currently doing is "hard enough."

I was not necessarily directing my comment specifically at you and/or your situation, and largely my attention had been drawn to your statements that generally seemed to imply that how long someone had been in bitcoin is going to end up establishing what kinds of options that s/he has available, and surely I was trying to point out that the amount of coins that anyone had been able to accumulate would also serve as a pretty important factor, so I was not necessarily disagreeing with your overall ideas, but I just thought that you might have been making too many generalizations in the comparison of longer term bitcoiners to newer folks, and surely there can be some folks who are also already experienced in investing prior to coming to bitcoin, including some folks who have way more discretionary income than others, yet some folks will also have a lot of advantages in regards to their potential to profit from bitcoin, but even those advantages might not cause them to allow bitcoin to advantage them if they fail/refuse to act in terms of establishing a bitcoin position and maintaining it.

There are also no guarantees that bitcoin will continue to serve as a transfer of wealth from the no coiners to the coiners, so each of us has to take responsibility over however, much we choose to invest into bitcoin and the extent to which we might hedge in terms of having investments into other assets - or at what point we might diversify into other assets, especially if we might be both new to investing and also new to bitcoin, there surely would be nothing wrong with starting out by ONLY investing into bitcoin and cash and without having any other investments until after some time of building an bitcoin investment portfolio or perhaps some circumstances change in which views upon bitcoin change to cause changes in perspective regarding how to allocate new money.. or even to reallocate how much is invested in bitcoin as compared to other places (not referring to shitcoins here), if some folks make those kinds of choices (which may or may not end up playing out as correct choices).


Part of the problem in regards to starting to sell prior to reaching a state of overaccumulation is that you likely would be buying out of one hand and selling out of the other, which sometimes can end up being quite ambiguous behaviors if you are starting to engage in such practices prior towards your reaching a state of overaccumulation.  

So personally, I have difficulties attempting to define how anyone would know whether they have reached such overaccumulation status.. so part of the way that I had ended up calculating it for myself, is that in my selling on the way up, I have always sold ONLY such a small amount of BTC that I would not expect to be able to buy it back, so there can be ways to calculate such formulas.. but it also seems to not really work so well if you are still wanting to accumulate more BTC, so if you are selling on the way up, but at the same time you are DCA buying, then you are engaged in both practices, so it would almost seem more logical to cut out the selling part and just continue to DCA until you reach a point that you are mostly no longer accumulating BTC, whether through DCA methods or otherwise.  I describe some of my ideas of raking in this thread, and yeah there is a bit of a presumption that accumulation targets have already been establish and sales are not being made in order to buy back lower, even though the table allows for it, but there is also a built in expectation that the BTC price might not come back down after any sale has taken place.


For example, in traditional investing it could 30-40 years or even longer to build an investment to a point in which the investor gets to fuck you status.. (which is one way of determining that s/he has enough), and it seems to me that in bitcoin, that timeline could get cut in half to 15-20 years, and surely it is not even guaranteed to get cut in half or to be better than traditional investing methods. So each of us can ONLY do what we are able to do based on our best information and our best tactics based on our own finances and psychology.

Surely there is a need for discretionary income, and having a discretionary income tends to establish the boundaries of the maximum amount that could be invested into bitcoin, and surely a person can also attempt to increase his discretionary income by increasing his income and/or cutting his expenses.. and yeah, some folks have more income opportunities than others, and sometimes there are both limitations in opportunities or there could take some time to build up training (which training sometimes can take money.. or even some folks consider that if they invest capital into a business then they can generate more income for themselves, and therefore be able to buy more bitcoin with their extra income). I cannot say which folks are able to increase their discretionary income or if they might already be starting with capital versus some folks who are starting from nothing, even though there likely is some assumptions that many folks need to engage in DCA investing because they are starting from at or near low amounts, and if they have a shitty-ass job that barely pays their expenses, then they may well not be in a solid  enough of a financial position to invest in bitcoin or anything else.. and I cannot necessarily figure out ways that guys like that need to figure out ways to help themselves (if it is even possible in their circumstances?).


I am not assuming anything, except that anyone investing into bitcoin has to have discretionary income if such persons are going to invest into bitcoin or anything else.  If such persons do not have discretionary income then they are gambling rather than investing, and I am not suggesting that anyone gambles.


You establish your investment amount in accordance with your discretionary income, and if you can ONLY afford $10 per week then that is all that you can do, unless you increase your discretionary income by increasing your income and/or by cutting your expenses.


There are needs to try to be realistic too.. so even a person investing $200 per week might have diffiulties getting to 1 whole bitcoin in the next 10 years.. but yeah, it is not easy to know, so it might be more realistic if a person is thinking that they are investing $10 per week, then after a year they would have had invested $520 and after 10 years they would have had invested $5,200.  Of course, they might be able to project salary increases or they can also project changes in the BTC price in order to estimate how many BTC that they might have after 10 years or whatever timeline they are wanting to project in regards to variable factors that they anticipate.


Each of us has to come to our own conclusions regarding what we believe to constitute overaccumulation.  So for example if a guy has an income that is right around $24k per year ($2k per month), and his expenses might be around $1,500 per month, so that means he has $500 discretionary income, and if he is investing $100 per week into bitcoin, then after 10 years, he would have invested $52,000 into bitcoin, and surely he would have had invested more than 2 years worth of income and if BTC prices also went up, then surely at some point, he might consider that he has overaccumulated or that he has enough, which might not mean that he starts to sell his bitcoin, but it might mean that at some point he diversifies into other investments (not referring to shitcoins).

So there are various ways that a guy would balance out what is his income/expenses, how much does he have invested into various assets (such as bitcoin, cash, properties, stocks, bonds, commodities), so maybe if bitcoin is carrying too much of that amount, such as 90% in bitcoin and 10% in other stuff, he might feel like he is overallocated in bitcoin which might result in some selling of bitcoin or perhaps just using new money to buy other kinds of assets so that he might feel more balanced...

Guys have to make these kinds of choices.

In late 2013, I started to buy bitcoin, and I did not have an exact formula, but by late 2014, I had figured I had reached more than 10% of my investment portfolio in bitcoin, so I figured that I had enough, but since the BTC prices stayed down for most of 2015, I continued to accumulate BTC and I got up to 13.5% into bitcoin so I started to feel overaccumulated, yet the BTC price shot up from $250 to $19,666, so there were points in which I had gotten into the 80% areas of accumulation since I was ONLY selling small amounts of BTC, but when the BTC price corrected back down to lower than $4k, then my allocation into bitcoin was in the ballpark of 40%, so sure I could continue to consider that I had overaccumulated into bitcoin, but I still mostly sold when the BTC price went up and buy when it goes down, but ONLY selling such a small amount that I don't really care if I am able to buy it back or not.


You can measure based on percentages of your holdings in bitcoin as compared to other places or you can measure based on number years of income that you have in bitcoin, and if you want to be at fuck you status in traditional investments, then you would need to have around 25 years of income invested in order to be able to draw 4% per year of your investments (presuming that you are able to figure out ways to earn 4% per year on those investments).  I personally think with bitcoin, you can get buy with around 10-12 years of your income into bitcoin and presume an ability to earn 10% on your bitcoin and to be able to withdraw 10% per year based on the 200-WMA valuation of you BTC holdings... yet of course since bitcoin's price is so volatile, there may well need to be adjustments to withdrawal rates based on how close the BTC spot price is to the 200-WMA, and so if it is 25% above or lower, then withdrawal rates may well need to be adjusted downward. Anyhow, the point is that you may well reach fuck you status with 10-12 years of income (based on the 200-WMA) invested into bitcoin as compared with 25 years in traditional investments... but you still have to figure out your own calculations so that you do not presume that you have more abilities than you do which is one of the reasons to measure value of your BTC based on the 200-WMA rather than based on spot price.


Even if you do everything correct, including continuing to DCA invest into bitcoin for the next 8-10 years, it is not guaranteed that your investment will end up being successful.

Yes, bitcoin has been a good investment, and there is no evidence to suggest that bitcoin is no longer a good investment, but it is still not guaranteed to pay off, even 8-10 years or longer down the road.  Each of us needs to size our investments accordingly, without anticipating that our investment into BTC is guaranteed to be successful, when it is not.

I get confused about some of the anxiety too... since we already know that bitcoin is not necessarily going to go where you want it to go when you want it to go there, so there are some skills in figuring out a comfortable position size and to keep accumulating until you have enough.. (or more than enough), so then there could be some debate about what enough or more than enough even means - since a lot of folks have difficulties thinking in long terms of 4-10 years or more, even if they seem to act like they know what long term means, they are too busy pondering over when and how to cash out (some or all of their BTC).

So yeah, even someone who may have been in bitcoin and accumulating for 4-10 years or more may or may not have reached enough BTC, since every time a person buys BTC, there likely needs to be some consideration that the new BTC purchases are for at least a period of 4-10 years or more, so a person who has been accumulating bitcoin for quite a while is going to have older purchased BTC and newer purchased BTC, so there can be a variety of ways of calculating the smaller portions of BTC as having differing timelines, and/or other ways of assessing the size and profitability of the whole BTC stash - so we would speculate that some of the BTC accumulators with longer timelines would have higher likelihood of having successful stashes of BTC, yet if they have been spending their whole time in BTC fucking around with various "profit taking" then they likely would not have put themselves in a very good position and they would end always being in a position of building their BTC stash without ever really making much if any progress in terms of their BTC stash getting larger in order to actually get themselves to a position of actual over accumulation rather than just short term perceptions of over accumulation. 

So in the end none of us can answer these questions for anyone else, even if sometimes we can see that they are making the wrong trade-offs by failing/refusing to sufficiciently and adequately accumulate bitcoin and/or to sufficiently/adequately prepare for UP..


Of course, people do not know these kinds of things naturally, so generally, each of us, especially newbies should be taking position sizes that are within their risk tolerance and they hopefully learn along the way in regards to how much BTC to buy and how to budget their investments, and so if a person knows that s/he has $100 of discretionary income per week that s/he could spend on bitcoin, s/he might start out with $50 per week or some amount that provides a cushion.

The same is true for someone who might come to bitcoin and s/he already has an investment portfolio of $100k, and so maybe there could be some ways to target some kind of an investment into bitcoin that is 5% to 25% of the size of the overall investment portolio, so there could be questions regarding how fast to to get to the target amount, and maybe start by aiming for some amount in the middle, such as getting to 10% over the next 6 months, so if the $10k ends up being new money injected in, there might be different risks and/or tradeoffs than taking the $10k from the $100k, including that if at the end of 6 months the investment amount could end up being $110k, which might not have had been the intended goal, exactly or such a quick injection into investing into bitcoin might not be economically or psychologically feasible for some folks.

Sometimes we need to work with examples to figure out if the trade-offs might or might not be feasible rather than merely saying that some people over did their investment and they are now scared little fucks... and so I have difficulties having sympathy for folks who have not had ways to figure out their own balances, even though surely I understand that there are a lot of people who likely go into an investment like bitcoin and they end up overdoing their investment in one way or another then they have regrets because they might not have taken enough precautions to perhaps hold some money back for buying on dips or maybe just DCA'd from the start, or if there was some kind of a lump sum investment without ongoing DCAing, the person may well had lump summed in with money that they actually need and/or want rather than with money that they were willing to put into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer... and so when the BTC price goes up and down, then maybe they should have taken some of that money out, but then they are still waiting for the price to go back up because they are investing with money that they cannot afford to lose and so they are likely gambling rather than investing, even if they are telling themselves that they are investing.

I am not sure why there is any need to feel any sympathies for these kinds of people, and hopefully they can learn how to be aggressive without over doing it, but having a plan for any BTC price direction.. including various extremes in either direction.

Another potentially interesting matter would be if the 100-WMA crosses back above the 200-WMA, and surely the 100-WMA is still in the mid-$31ks, so it is has a bit to go.. and since it is a delayed indicator, who knows what it means, but yeah something like the 100-WMA will tend to be moving up even while the BTC spot price has long periods of decline, since we can look at the earlier charts and see that the 100-WMA peaked around one year after the BTC spot price had peaked.. but then also if we look at past charts during the extended bullish periods, the 30-WMA will be higher than the 50-WMA which will be higher than the 100-WMA which will be higher than the 200-WMA... ..

so right now all of that is true, except the 100-WMA is lower than the 200-WMA, even though once the 100-WMA gets above the 200-WMA that would not even mean that the BTC price is going to continue to go up from there.  In what a confusing world we live in which the past performance cannot predict future performance, even if we can look at it and say, "Wow!!"

I agree with everything that you are suggesting Crypt0Gore, except, with bitcoin, I have my doubts about any kind of need to consider a specific exit price - even though surely it is good to know that you have abilities to buy and abilities to sell, but you would not necessarily plan on selling until maybe 4-10 years or longer down the road... and even at any point of starting to choose to sell some BTC, it would seem rash to be planning on selling large amounts of BTC rather than mostly erroring on the side of holding and/or selling small amounts... .. but surely, these are differences between an investment and a trader mindset and also difference in terms of how a person might consider BTC as perhaps being one of the best investments known to man... .. and yeah, it is not guaranteed to stay in such category... .. there are surely attacks against it.. especially in the self-custodial direction, which is what actually gives bitcoin its power and/or value.

Here's my report update: 

100K,JayJuanGee,84,16110,2024-04-28

Since I ONLY have 16 more days until I reach 100 days in a row of push-ups (it seems like forever doing pushups), I am pretty much on target to have an average of 200-pushups per day by the time I get to the 100th day, as long as I pretty much keep up my same rate of pushups per set and pushups per day which has been more than the average of 243.125 pushups per day for the next 16 days needed in order to have at least a 200 pushups per day by day 100 - which surely is hurting me to keep up such a rate, but it is mostly manageable since I have mostly been doing around more than 250 pushups per day since April 6th, the last 22-23 days.. 

It is almost like getting stuck in one's own trap of goals, and surely I have to be getting a little bit better and stronger with the pushups since I was kind of stuck at 50 per set for quite a long time, but every once in a while I am able to do 5 or maybe 10 more, sure it is a struggle, but sometimes I am totally worn out by the time I get to 50 and then other times, I say to myself, let me try a few more, so I end up getting another 5 or 10..

I did move my highest number of pushups per set up to 64 a few days ago and then to 65 yesterday, and surely there tends to hardly be any energy left on the few times that I have gotten into the 60s.. but still most of my sets have 50 pushups and I tend to do them 5 times a day with at least an hour between sets and frequently a minimum of more than 2 hours between sets.

Why would you be trading it (referring to your post in another thread), then if you believe that it is going to $1 million by 2040 (which by the way is not even that bullish of numbers, and maybe some folks would label you as overly conservative with your estimates). 

I personally don't have any problems with being a bit conservative.  Even my fuck you status chart that I have not yet updated with the new numbers (anticipated to be updated at the end of May or the beginning of June), show right around $875k-ish as the 200-WMA price in 2040, which is considered bottom prices.. so yeah, $1 million by then seems pretty damned conservative, even though none of us really know what is going to happen with any strong levels of confidence, even though we can still understand bitcoins general overall trajectory seems to be ongoingly UP, especially since it seems to be the most sound money every invented (or discovered).

Fuck your strategy.  It is off-topic.  Don't you even realize that?

Maybe what I was trying to do was provide a cursory response to your post in order that I should not have to state the obvious, which is we are not talking about trading in this thread.. .. do you see anything about selling in the OP or in the title?

Sure, there are likely quite a few posts that we incidentally talk about various places in which selling might apply, but that's not the thrust of the contents of the overwhelming majority of posts in this thread, which has to do with various ways to accumulate bitcoin through buying and/or holding, and even if we might want to consider your proposition in a liberal way, in which you are trying to suggest that you  (and/or anyone else) can get more bitcoin by selling and then buying back cheaper, then maybe at least you might be struggling to stay within the parameter of the topic, but still that is not even a very convincing way to accumulate BTC.

And, by the way, we also seem to argue quite a bit about the idea of accumulating BTC by buying on dips, and personally, I believe buying in dips is a supplemental strategy, especially when it comes to newbies, no coiners and/or low coiners, and the overwhelming majority of the world fits into the nocoiner/low coiner status (which means they hardly even have enough bitcoin), which likely includes you.

You are brand new to the forum, and unless you are going to tell me and or any other member here that you have been accumulating BTC for 4 or more years or you frontloaded your BTC investment, otherwise, you are likely low on BTC, and the best way to resolve that problem is to establish a practice of regularly, persistently and consistently acquiring BTC, and you would not likely be able to accomplish those kinds of BTC accumulation goals through selling BTC.. You accomplish BTC accumulation through employing various forms of buying that largely fits into the three categories of DCA, lump sum and buying on dips (which may or may not include front-loading) depending upon your own financial circumstances.


If you believe that there might be some value in terms of employing your various tools in terms of buying on the dip, then surely members might be want to try to learn about some of that or at least it would be somewhat relevant even though many of us consider buying on dips to be a supplemental strategy to something like DCA or lump sum investing.  Yet your earlier post was referring to selling, so largely you are seem to be approaching the whole bitcoin matter from a trading rather than an investing approach, even if you might be wanting to label yourself as some kind of a sophisticated investor to the extent that you are even in the right thread to be presenting your trading and/or gambling strategies while perhaps striving to have them considered as if they were some kind of a reasonable form of investing, which they likely are not anyhow, even if you might want to believe that whatever buying on the dip strategies you believe are learnable by normies.. as compared with normies who largely just employ DCA strategies are going to beat the pants off of the overwhelming majority of traders, especially if we start to look at BTC portfolio value performances over longer periods such as 4-10 years or longer.

I am not usually very interested in something like the 200-DMA, but it is interesting that prior to April 25th, the 200-DMA was outside of the top 100, and so now, since April 25th, the 200-DMA has been moving up the charts starting from 94th, but each day printing a new higher place on the 200-DMA top 100 chart... currently it is at 46th place, and it seems to be tending to go up more than $160 each day, so at this rate, within around 4-5 days it should be pretty damned close to top place, and perhaps even if BTC prices were to crash into the $50ks, the 200-DMA already has enough momentum to make it into the top place within a week or so.... I don't know.. but it is interesting the way the slopes of these various moving averages have differing ways of lagging behind the BTC spot price, and perhaps sometimes showing some kind of notable and/or interesting pieces of information. 

Why would anyone hold without patience?

If they were planning to sell some BTC but they did not, and then the BTC price drops 10-19%, then maybe they should consider buying some more.. .. or yeah, otherwise, they are waiting to sell the next time the BTC price goes up, and hopefully out of their anxiousness (lack of patience) they do not end up selling too many too soon

I am sure you understand the USA government quite well, you kanuck!!!

hahahahahaha

Of course, the USA government is an efficient machine with zero (or near zero) duplication of its efforts, just like you have described them to be.

In other words, there are no needs to worry.

They are not coming after anyone...

We're (referring to self-storing bitcoiners) all safe.  The righteous US Government officials are not going to unfairly target anyone.. ONLY targeting dee real and true wrong-doing criminals.

It sounds like you are going to have fun staying poor.

BTC sent to hashers is a product of block rewards and fees that might be paid by money launderers... Arguably miners are facilitating the money-laundered derived transactions.


Properly cited for view-ability which meant that I fixed your image by taking the spaces out of both of the sides of your "=" sign

-----   like cygan mentioned..


If you have reached a state of overaccumulation, then no problem shaving off a certain amount of satoshis every month, quarter, year or whatever might be your logistical and/or accounting timeline.

However, if you are in a state that you have accumulated enough but you have not quite got to a place where you feel that you have over accumulated, then maybe you either have to withdraw more slowly or wait somewhere later down the road to withdraw.

Of course, you seem to not think about bitcoin in the same ways as I do, so in that regard, you may well be looking more for tops in the sense of following raking methods (as the price goes up) rather than time-based withdrawals which may be monthly, quarterly and/or yearly but surely you could still adjust the size of your time-based withdrawals (upwardly or downwardly) based on relative height of BTC prices (relative to the 200-WMA, for example)


Even though a lot of folks are seeming depressed, I think that we still have some more uppity.. 12-18 months.. but yeah, there can be some stifling effect when the actual value propositions of bitcoin (self-custody) are seemingly ongoingly under attack and maybe moreso in recent times.

Your reaction seems a bit strong to me Dailyscript.  I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying, except that you seem to be arguing too strongly in regards to matters that are discretionary and even sometimes ways that matters are described in regards to how much money is set aside for various categories of expenses, and surely there are likely going to be balances, and newbies need to be careful in regards to how aggressive that they want to be, yet if they have very organized finances that include being quite aware of their emergency funds, reserves and float, then their discretionary income is extra money that they have for whatever.. so maybe they get paid every two weeks, and if they already have money in their reserves that might be available for if they underestimate some of their expenses, or they might have some of that money that is available in case they want to go out for dinner or drinks or some other spontaneous expense, so they might already have various cushions set up, so then spending up to 100% of their remaining discretionary income on bitcoin may well be o.k... except for if they had not calculated very well in terms of the various cushions that they had already potentially set up.

I guess part of the point (and we don't really seem to disagree) is that the more organized you are and the more experienced you are with the balancing of your finances and psychology, then the more aggressive that you can afford to be in terms of your bitcoin accumulation, and sure some kinds of behaviors might border upon being overly aggressive, but at the same time, if we are trying to be realistic, there may be some ways that BTC buys are preset or they might be manually made, so that if paychecks are coming in each two weeks or some thing like that, then there can be ways to balance out if too much aggressiveness might have happened the previous pay period and yeah, there is a balance in regards to being either whimpy or aggressive, sometimes you might not realize that you had gone too far in one direction or another until later down the road and/or it is too late and maybe either you see that you BTC could have performed better if you had not been so whimpy or that you run out of money and you are forced to sell some bitcoin at a time that is not of your own choosing because you ended up investing into bitcoin too aggressively.


I have my doubts that any of us should be striving for perfection, yet maybe considering ways to do the best we can under the circumstances or to attempt to employ better practices.

Ideas of perfection are problematic, even though there are people in the world who have psychological problems in terms of attempting to impose perfection on themselves and onto others, and that really seems like a stressful world that I would not want to be part of that... so thinking about better practices also for each of us to be attempting to tailor our approach to our own circumstances based on the information that we have, while tweaking as we go, including that we should be expecting that we may well make several mistakes along the way, especially in regards to considering how aggressive or how whimpy we want to be.. but then at the same time, trying to learn from our mistakes and taking responsibility for our actions.. and deciding how much time do we want to be putting into learning about various aspects of bitcoin, versus sometimes carrying out other obligations that we have.

Even for example in recent times, some of the aggressive and seemingly overreaching vindictive behaviors of the US Government - whether we are talking about Samurai wallet or other bitcoin related matters that relate to self-sovereignty.. these can really cause irritations in regards to the bullish case for bitcoin and including causing some of us to question some aspects of how much we might want to allocate to bitcoin in regards to sometimes changes in the behaviors of others - that might even contribute to our decisions regarding how to hold our BTC, directly, on exchanges, through ETFs, on lighting network... do we run a node.. how much do we learn about coding or development, do we want to learn to code.. there are a lot of choices, that might not relate to exactly getting started, but could relate to how much of a position size we want to take, which each of us are not necessarily going to strike the same balances.

It is ONLY a panic period if you have not prepared yourself financially and/or psychologically for a wide array of possibilities, and so if you already have some reasonable approach to a plan that you have been employing for 12-18 months or longer, then what would be the reason to panic - except that you are not investing for the long term and you are merely trying to play this particular wave, whether we are currently at a kind of top, then you are considering taking profits, but you would not want to take profits here if there might be a higher top 3-18 months down the road.

If you had not noticed, I am personally not very sympathetic for trying to consider traders or those trying to play bitcoin in the short term as if they were taking a reasonable approach to BTC, which I consider to be a 4-10 year or longer investment, and the ONLY reason that I even accept 4 years as a minimum timeline is because I understand and appreciate that there are some folks who are old (and who need to stay somewhat liquid) who might want to get into bitcoin, so yeah those ones may well have some difficulties towards even committing to a minimum of a 4 year timeline.

Others with a shorter timeline are trading, and sure, I am not against people doing whatever they like, but I like to consider bitcoin as a long term investment rather than something to fuck around with trading, so I give few shits about folks trying to figure out exactly when a local top might be and some panicking or not panicking based on some uncertainties, because maybe they are even playing around with money that they actually need so they might not even know how to mentally get to a point that they are investing rather than trading, even though they even mix up words and they call periods of less than 4 years as if they were investments, when they are not.. especially in something like bitcoin.

I doubt that I am being overly restrictive in my ideas about bitcoin, because I do believe in spend in replace kinds of activities, and I also believe that if someone is able to front load his/her investment into bitcoin, then he may well have a lot more latitude to be selling some of his BTC at various points rather than mostly just be focusing on accumulation and/or holding which is the kinds of things that is done with investments.  

I do also appreciate that in these times, there are ways in which "no one wanting to spend their bitcoin" is being turned into a kind of attack vector on bitcoin, and surely it is difficult to change the ways that governments treat bitcoin and also try to attack ways in which holders of bitcoin are able to interact directly, and surely shitty products on the chain also drive up fees, which create some incentives to try to use (or to have developed) various second layers that may or may not involve KYC.. so yeah in recent times, even demonizing anyone who does not do KYC seems to be another attack vector in bitcoin by even trying to proclaim wallet providers are Money Service Businesses (MSB) which is also a bunch bullshit to attempt to neuter the power of BTC in various ways, and surely causes some folks to no longer recognize and/or appreciate the various still existing powers of bitcoin.


No need to wish.. just accept it for whatever it is.  What is the rush?

I cannot recall you ever proclaiming that you have been accumulating bitcoin for longer than you forum registration date.. so I hardly see why you should be in any kind of a rush for the BTC price to go up.. but yeah, I imagine you may well have already stopped accumulating BTC, even though you probably should keep accumulating it rather than considering points that you might be able to sell some of it.

Now, if you front loaded that could be a different story.. so maybe you might be a more sympathetic character if you outlined some of these ideas (and yeah you don't have to give up too much OPsec), so that maybe I might be able to appreciate why anyone with less than 4 years in bitcoin should be doing anything other than trying to accumulate as much as s/he can.. and that would be my presumption about the overwhelming number of the world's population who seem to either be no coiners or lo coiners. . and perhaps a nicer way would be to label them as precoiners, which largely means that they currently don't have enough BTC.. .. so I am having some difficulties understanding and/or appreciating alternative perspectives, unless those are just acknowledgements of not really knowing very well what BTC is.


I try to attempt to recognize and appreciate folks from what their perspective should be, because surely I already went through those phases of my BTC journey, and yes I admit that the first whole cycle can have a lot of difficult parts in terms of knowing what to do, but I was never a person that was concerned about selling, even though I continued to be a person who was ongoingly concerned about buying more. so in my own situation, at the time, that I came into bitcoin (in late 2013), I had already been investing in various kinds of traditional assets for more than 20 years, so I was able to front load my investment into bitcoin in the first year or two (through 2014 and around half of 2015), but I still had some troubles figuring out the way that I was framing my BTC investment, so yeah, there can be a lot of differences that end up happening when I had been investing for the first 2 to 3 years and largely my BTC continued to be in the negative because the BTC price was going down for most of that time and then ending up in around a 9 months price trough through most of 2015, so my questions had to do if I should continue to accumulate BTC or whether I had enough.. so there can be some points in which you accumulate and you realize that you have enough, but you still don't really have any concrete ideas where the BTC price is going to go...

So surely you could have some disadvantages in coming to bitcoin and you are pretty much spoiled because the BTC price has been going up the whole last nearly 18 months, but being spoiled may well not work to your advantage in terms of helping you to realize that you may well not have enough BTC, but you may wll be too preoccupied by its dollar value.. So I cannot really say what to do, since I had created some of my own systems of dealing with my BTC holdings that had to do with both coming to conclusions of having enough and more than enough, so that I could thereafter plan my raking strategies and/or my sustainable withdrawal strategies which I believe apply to folks who have concluded that they have enough or more than enough rather than folks who might not been able to figure out the value of their own BTC holdings that would help to inform them what to do next..

So I cannot really tell you what kind of a system to establish for yourself and if you might be in the right ballpark of doing the right thing for yourself, and not end up sellling too much too soon under a presumption that you already have enough or some kind of a belief that you might be able to buy back cheaper, which truly I have never engaged in any practice of selling BTC while expecting to buy back cheaper.. since part of my own system of selling on the way up is to sell such a small amount that it is not going to matter because I am selling out of surplus, and I don't care if I am going to be able to buy back cheaper, since I have ongoingly set myself up and maintained a position that I am better off if the BTC price goes up rather than down... and I also maintain a presumption that overall BTC prices are going to keep going up.. even though surely I know that it is not guaranteed, and when a person is already more than 60x in profits it may well not matter as much if he later becomes ONLY 40x or 20x in profits, even though surely it would have had been better to stay 60x in profits or even go to some higher level of profits.. .. but it can take years and years and years before you BTC holdings is both sizable enough to make a difference or even in sufficient amount of profits that you are less worked up about its volatile, and I personally believe that you have better chances of getting that point by ongoingly, persistently and consistently buying, especially if you so far had not been able to front load your BTC investment.


I never proclaim to know those kinds of things.. the odds for up might ONLY be slightly greater than they are for down, if that is even a reasonable presumption with all of the current oingoing attacks on bitcoin, there may well be some attempts to shake some more weak hands..

I am not sure whether your framework is good Pi-network314159, because there could be some questions regarding how many coins you have, so then there could be some guys who consider that they have reached a point of overaccumulation.

So let's say right now by whatever calculation methods that a guy does, he has come to the conclusion that his entry level fuck you status is right around 23.7 BTC; however, in his stash he has around 40 BTC, and he also has concluded that he is going to be able to withdraw 10% or more of his BTC - because by his formula, he has already figured that the quantity of BTC that he is going to need to continue to maintain at least entry level fuck you status or higher is going to go down rather than up, so under those calculations he has way more than what he has concluded to be a necessary number of coins to maintain the fuck you status that he has defined for himself.. .. .and so he may even be able to consider that he has a lot of liberty with a certain quantity of his coins.. maybe even 10 of his coins.. so he might create some formula to sell a certain number of coins on the way up (maybe somewhere in the ballpark of 5% of his coins every time the BTC price doubles.. or maybe he picks some other interval or amount), while also realizing that he is not going to sell any more than 10 BTC, and/or he could also decide that he is going to sell a certain quantity of coins every month no matter the BTC price (except maybe he would consider if the BTC price is unreasonably low or high, he might make adjustments to his sales amount), and maybe his tentative range of monthly sales would be in the ballpark of between 0.1 BTC and 0.2BTC per month.   

So even combining those two BTC selling methods, he considers that either a lot of time is going to pass or the price is going to go up a lot for him to even come close to selling the 10 extra BTC that he has, and he still has more than 23.7 BTC plus he has an extra 6.3 BTC as a cushion before he even gets to the 10 that he is selling under the various formulas..  .. and even if he has set some parameters for buying back if the BTC price drops, he is not engaging in any of his conduct with expectations to buy back, but he also does not have anything against buying back some coins when the BTC price drops a certain amount that he might prescribe to be 10%, 20%, 30% or some other number lower than the price that he had sold (presuming that he  had not already used some of that money in consumption purposes).

In other words, I would suggest establishing a certain size stash provides more liberties in regards to how to manage your stash, once you might consider that you are no longer in BTC accumulation stages, and yeah sometimes even older bitcoiners do not get to points in which they have accumulated enough or more than enough BTC.



I would suggest that a basic perception is that everyone should be in accumulation mode until they have reached a state of overaccumulation, so in that regard, you are ONLY able to sell once you have assessed your own situation as being in an overaccumulation status, so if you sell you are not selling in order to be able to buy back cheaper.. you are selling because you have already concluded that you have more than you need; however, if the BTC price ends up dropping you could use proceeds from your sales to buy back.. but you are not expecting or needing to buy back, since perhaps the amount that you sell is ONLY going to be a relatively small amount of your stash that is part of the overaccumulation amount.. since you have already assessed that you have more than enough BTC.


Hopefully you are not fucking around with shitcoins or considering that there is some kind of value in studying them prior to making sure you understand what you are doing in regards to bitcoin... anyhow talking about "crypto" makes you sound like a distracted shitcoin who does not know how to properly talk about bitcoin or to figure out your focus, because if you feel some kind of need to talk about shitcoins while we are talking about bitcoin, then there should be some kind of a context to that rather than using dumbass-vague terms to refer to bitcoin as if it were part of some shitcoin space, and you don't even say, you just lump it in as if you are trying to sound smart by saying crypto rather than bitcoin, if you might have been wanting to talk about bitcoin.

I don't even have a problem with guys choosing to put up to 10% of the size of their bitcoin holdings into various shitcoins, especially if they cannot resist the temptation, then if they are at least limiting themselves to 10% while they are learning .. and especially learning about bitcoin, since it would seem that if you consider something like "crypo" and you put 90% into bitcoin and 10% into some various shitcoins, then you may well also spend 90% of your time learning about bitcoin rather than shitcoins, but yeah, there are a lot of people who are neither able to maintain focus, but when they go to talk about bitcoin as compared to shitcoins, they talk in kinds of vague-er-ies (the state of being vague) that make it difficult to know what the fuck they are talking about, since even though there are some various scammers that attempt to categories and give preference to various shitcoins being less shittty than other shitcoins, in the end much of that hardly makes any sense if you really look into the matter, but the problem of guys looking into the matter, is the will frequently fail/refuse to understand bitcoin's value proposition prior to figuring out the extent to which some shitcoin might be attempting to solve any kind of actual problem rather than either being a place to print money or a way  to be an affinity to bitcoin or a way to facilitate other scams, which are likely not solving any problem besides pumping and dumping.. and if you are getting into them with a belief that you are going to be on the benefitting side rather than on the side that gets dumped on or rug pulled.