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3581  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2020, 06:24:52 PM
Still, 10year and 30 year notes/treasuries are going in the WRONG direction.
I talked about it before, and here is planB on twitter with graphs:

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD

This inhibits potential re-fi activities.
3582  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2020, 05:58:01 PM
OT: Yeah sure, let's bailout the airlines again... ugh  Roll Eyes

Where is the public outrage??  Angry

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/u-s-airlines-spent-96-of-free-cash-flow-on-buybacks-chart

I wonder if times such as these will eventually lead to stricter rules about public companies - such as after-the-fact voiding of manager bonuses, forced state repossession of nonconforming companies and similar draconian laws. Seeing what is being imposed on the general population in the name of the common good, which is quite close to enforcing police state rules, I'd say it wouldn't be too far fetched.

It's not going to play like in 2008.

the Pound is tanking.  Shocked

GBP/USD ATL from 2016 is broken.

maybe because UK money managers were discussing closing the markets.
3583  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2020, 01:17:13 AM
Does anybody have an idea as to why btc is trading on Coinbase pro and Kraken with almost $200 premium to Binance?

I'm seeing a $20 difference.  Did you double-tap the zero key?

nevermind, it's just coinmarketcap has shitty data (i did not check the binance site directly).
3584  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2020, 12:49:25 AM
Does anybody have an idea as to why btc is trading on Coinbase pro and Kraken with almost $200 premium to Binance?

EDIT: Ignore, wrong data feed
3585  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2020, 11:08:48 PM
"My best guess, for what it is worth, based on the latest Center for Disease Control data, is that confirmed COVID-19 (this specific form of the common cold) cases will not exceed 0.1% of the US population. Moreover, I do not think, when we look back on 2020, that the causes of death or serious injury will have changed much from 2017, for example: (CDC statistic)."

Elon doesn't panic.  Cheesy

his stock does.


I havent owned any since 2014 when I went all in on Bitcoin, but TSLA has outperformed Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, Global Stocks, and the US dollar ytd(since Dec. 31 closing prices). Dec 31 also happens to be the day Covbull-19 became global news. Tsla is slightly up for the year.

So relatively speaking, criticizing his stock rn doesn't pass the smell test.   Wink

Not for long, and his bonds are at all time low (2025 quoted 77ish today).
3586  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2020, 11:04:35 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/stock-futures-fall-slightly-after-market-rebounds-on-hopes-for-1-trillion-stimulus.html
Quote
Wall Street has been on an unprecedented roller-coaster ride amid the coronavirus turmoil, with the S&P 500 swinging 4% or more in either direction for seven consecutive sessions. This tops the previous record of six days from November 1929, according to LPL Financial.

Does it mean that we are in Nov 1929-type situation?
It's possible according to Raul Pal (see below). His definitions: 30-40% decline-regular recession, 40-60%-deep recession, 60-80%-Depression.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-vision-raoul-pal-on-coronavirus-worse-than-2008-204313745.html

Numbers (for theoretical SP500 decline):

40% 2035 (roughly at march 2016 levels)
60% 1357 (roughly in the vicinity of the double hump of 2000 and 2008)
80% 678  (almost exactly at 2009 lows)

Not sure what the probabilities are.
3587  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2020, 10:24:49 PM
"My best guess, for what it is worth, based on the latest Center for Disease Control data, is that confirmed COVID-19 (this specific form of the common cold) cases will not exceed 0.1% of the US population. Moreover, I do not think, when we look back on 2020, that the causes of death or serious injury will have changed much from 2017, for example: (CDC statistic)."

Elon doesn't panic.  Cheesy

his stock does.
3588  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2020, 07:56:45 PM
Anyone else getting random unexpected CLIs on their CCs?
They trying to con me into spending more money or something?

My 2 biggest limit cards each got about 50% limit increases, just now, since last I checked them... For basically no reason..
2 different banks even..

It's like they are trying to get more money out there, and want me to do it for them..
When this covid shit first started I expected more of a credit crunch, limit decreases, but maybe with this fed rate dropping and money pumping, they will actually try to hand out more credit?

GF got a pretty big CLI too just the other day, from yet another bank..
3 banks.. Must be a coincidence?

I guess it means that they think that they can profit the most from you (via minimal payments) without yourself defaulting.
3589  Economy / Speculation / Re: haters on: March 17, 2020, 06:36:25 PM
Can anybody make a market comparo of some of the worlds top economy indexes VS the DOW to see how everyone is doing in comparison?


we are doing worse than China (FXI), better than UK (FTSE100) and Japan (Nikkei225).
url is too long to post.

BTW, look at bonds: 10 year yield is up 33 29% today (Thirty Three TWENTY NINE Percent), 30 year-up above 17 13%. That's a dislocation.
Novo was saying that we have a deflationary episode, but treasuries and gold say the opposite (at least for now).
Can large bond players survive this kind of daily swings?
3590  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2020, 06:07:00 PM
I'm actually impressed as hell, that after today and such that we are at $8,100.00 USD BTC as I type this.

You must either be a future traveler or a traveller of the past, Searing.  

Alternatively, you might need to refresh your page or reboot your computer.

Just for the record:  In the past three hours, BTC prices have largely bounced between $5,200 and $5,400....

There have been no significant or meaningful BTC price movements or spikes outside of that price range... so far.  Can ONLY wish.. maybe in a week or two, best case scenario, and a year or so, worser-case scenario (I won't mention the actual worst-case scenario, we already have enough depressing news in actual reality and also coming through the keyboards of certain doom and gloom bear-leaning BTC price prognosticators).

Trying to re-live my 'big balls' 2013 newbie past, when I dumped 1/4 of my take-home income on a KNC Jupiter BTC miner. Man the BTC/Crypto kool-aid was strong back then...

I'm probably gonna 'wimp' out but I'm trying! Damn, I was an 'impressive' newbie...I miss the stupid and dumb luck stuff I used to just do and be correct...and take it as a given...

ah..the BTC/Crypto 'cult' was strong in my heart then. Smiley



What do you mean by 'wimp' out?

I....verily...sometimes I have 'doubts' about my BTC/Crypto 'faith' ...Sad

We are all 'fiat' sinners! Sad  The lure of fast cars/McDonald's Menus/Rent...stuff that should have in the way back when of 2013 SHOULD have gone into BTC/Crytpo.

ie wimp out



Maybe we will not benefit from crypto ownership as much as we hoped/dreamed, but I believe that our children or grandchildren will.
3591  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2020, 05:57:01 PM
Wanna buy?? How many sheets you want?  Grin

In the very near future only coiners will be able to afford a few sheets of toilet paper every month (TP whales will be trading full rolls on black market).

Nocoiners will have to wipe their butts with dirty, thin, single-layered, rough and cheaply made USD.

trade busted...my better half had bidet installed couple of years ago..wet, but clean butt ensues (sans TP).

On the economic situation: since nobody working really knows if they would be 'let go', 'furloughed' or 'fired', I would advise raising at least 6mo worth of cash expenses if you can.
Maybe i am wrong; then, i would ease back into the market later on.
3592  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2020, 05:35:03 PM
WTB TP@xxx

Anyone?

All big supermarkets here are overrun by idiots, though the small grocery stores in the villages are stocked up to the ceiling. I could choose between 7 different kinds of finest ass-wiping-material a few hours ago.
That said, if you can afford the shipping I can send you literally shitloads of TP.

I have to smile heartly when I imagine the FOMO moving from TPR to BTC in the very very near future. Moon could possibly be closer than it ever was.

guess selling TP could be the new schema to get rich quick.  Cool

one guy's scheme to get rich by buying 17.7 thou bottles of disinfectant/sanitizer was busted by amazon, which simply closed his auctions/sells.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/he-has-17700-bottles-of-hand-sanitizer-and-nowhere-to-sell-them/ar-BB11blvS

...TP not affected  Grin

I have an idea: print new $$ double sided-one side money, another side -TP, separate before use of each (works like TP dividend)
3593  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2020, 05:11:39 PM
I hear the choppers in the distance

...and 30 year treasury increased in yield almost 10% in ONE day.
3594  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2020, 04:58:36 PM
Market economy?
Airlines spent 39 billions on buybacks, now looking for a handout of 50bil.
How about this: you did not have cash cushion (like AAPL, Berkshire, google, amazon, facebook), spent all your extra money on buybacks, then your equity goes bust, your stock is worth zero, bondholders get the planes, restructure. All money to help should be there to support the company, NOT the stock price.
3595  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2020, 04:01:41 AM
... And sea sponges injected 70% of their DNA into humans.

Explains a lot, really.

oh my, I actually used one today...now i have their DNA, lol
3596  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2020, 02:03:53 AM
Yes, it *has* been that bad ever since the '08 financial crisis: A complete zombie economy hanging by a string.
Eh, we're merely back to 2018 levels. It needs to fall a LOT more to hit 2008 values.

2008(9) values? Only in a Depression, which this guy estimates only at 10-20% chance:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/guggenheim-s-minerd-sees-10-20-chance-of-global-depression

My current plan is to start buying stocks at 50% discount (SP500 at 1700, roughly, which is, incidentally, is also a 61.8% point of the entire move from 666 to 3392), fully expecting a possibility of a move to 1500-1600 area before the strong bounce. Not going to buy any current bounces. BTC-hold.
I am talking here only about an inititial move and a rebound. The whole structure might take decades to resolve (aka Japan 1989-2009).

Listen carefully to Novo here (trading advice):
https://youtu.be/_9-6tSO7w3A
3597  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 16, 2020, 08:06:16 PM
Let me guess: last hour 1000-1500 points rally in the Dow-60% chance; decline to 13% loss and circuit breaker #2-40% chance.
Maybe both? Just seems unlikely to persist at this 9-10% loss.
They keep injecting money and the market keeps going down. Reminds me of the end of "Inside Out" when all the emotions are pushing the buttons and....

it's not working......



Well, we went down 13%, but did not circuit brake beacuse it was in the last 15min when circuit brakes are off (at least until -20%).
Listening to press conf-now some people make sense and talk a language of science instead of rah rah.
I liked that. Journos are crazy, though.
3598  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 16, 2020, 06:53:30 PM
Guys,

Excuse my ignorance on this matter but is there a website that I can deposit fiat via wire transfer and can purchase some tether from the U.S?

It seems like I can only do BTC to Tether but any way I can get fiat to USDT?

Thanks a lot.

any help guys? Sad

Kraken.
You can transfer even by ACH to Gemini and trade immediately, but I am not sure that they trade USDT.
Wire transfer would take time too.
3599  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 16, 2020, 06:33:24 PM
Let me guess: last hour 1000-1500 points rally in the Dow-60% chance; decline to 13% loss and circuit breaker #2-40% chance.
Maybe both? Just seems unlikely to persist at this 9-10% loss.
3600  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 16, 2020, 06:16:22 PM

Yes, we have another damn day for Bitcoin  Roll Eyes I wonder how much time it takes for Bitcoin to become as stable as before  Roll Eyes I'm sitting here and watching my account go down every day, outside there is a raging virus  Roll Eyes Damn series  day with my wrong decisions  Roll Eyes
Now the lowest is 4400, how much next?

What would have been your wrong decisions?

You did not prepare financially and psychologically for BTC prices to go down, which would be having the ability to buy moar in the case that BTC prices were to go down, which they did?

Interestingly, since this am btc correlates the best with gold stocks, but not with gold price.
gold stocks are outperforming gold by a vast %, which is for the first time during this 'downturn'.
EDIT: Dow is down 10%, but btc is holding 5K nicely.
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