A PSA that should probably not be buried in WO: Stop measuring value in dollars!Those of you who do TA and dataporn, do you have any good intelligence on the value of the dollar, in purchase-power terms? I don’t mean today; I mean tomorrow; I don’t mean the next day, either. Every sane person has known for a very long time that the dollar
must collapse someday; but trying to predict
when is like trying to predict the fall of the Roman Empire when you are living in it at some undermined point between c. A.D. 300–400... or is it later than I think?
Flip the axes on your BTC-USD trading charts, re-run your algorithms with the variables swapped, and see what that tells you—to start with. What is the dollar’s trend against Bitcoin?
As a rule of thumb, I measure fiat currency value by how many $/€/etc. an ounce of gold will purchase.
Not vice versa. Flip your thinking, because your thinking is upside-down. I also try to track the fiat/BTC price: What is the value of government-issued official trading stamps, as measured in Bitcoin today? However, that only works to avoid being a sheep getting sheared in the markets due to mismeasures of value, plus for long-term predictions, e.g.:
The dollar loses value. Whoopie, I’m a genius.
Ok. Bitcoin is going "down" because dollars are disappearing. The little bits of paper are starting to vanish like toilet paper because institutions (banks and the like) are hoarding them to be able to pay taxes and probably bonuses to their leaders.
So right now dollars are like toilet paper and everyone is worried that they won't have a clean bum. Thus they are more "valuable" than bitcoins. Now the main difference between dollars and toilet paper and bitcoins is that you can print an infinite number of dollars at a whim. You can only make so much toilet paper, and you sure can't make more than 12.5 bitcoins per 10 minutes.
When the super flood of dollars hits, people will be flush again and bitcoin will go back to about where it has been (IMO). Note I don't think it will skyrocket because the dollars being printed are just filling a pothole that has been growing all along and people have been blissfully ignoring it.
The people ultimately screwed are people on pensions, people on fixed income, and people who panic.
Damn, well said.
Note that all of the above assumes the continued existence of the Internet—and all the Internet’s massive dependency chain of fragile infrastructure. If that assumption holds true, then I rate Bitcoin a
strong buy without even trying to time the bottom. If not, then moving your assets to toilet paper is not exactly helpful. The creation of money out of thin air is a tool for shearing sheep by draining
value from their possession.
Note that all of the above assumes a sane person is in charge of all this. Such is not the case.
There is no single person in charge. This is the problem with “conspiracy theorists” (not calling you that—it’s just a good segue for an important point). Everybody who knows how the world actually works, knows that it is run by the sum of vectors of competing interests. Of course, people with the same interests will collude much as they can, and try to avoid announcing their plans to their competitors. In that sense, the world is run by “conspiracies”, and always has been; but that is just Real Life 101.
In all significantly powerful countries, the ruling classes have been in headless-chicken mode for a very long time—ever since they converted themselves from aristocracies to industrial capitalist plutocracies. They painted themselves into a corner:
They are dependent on the dollar scam, the Euro scam, the stock market scam, etc., etc. They are not only using it to trap you:
They are trapped, too, and trapped worst of all. “Too big to fail.” Building dynasties on the foundation of what is effectually the biggest Ponzi scheme in recorded history was not exactly wise.
Thus indeed, no sane person is in charge. No single person or monolithic organization is in charge; and the various competing groups in power are all totally insane. We are now enjoying the sum of competing vectors of insanity. Lulz.
Poll
