And cheap vodka. Extremely valuable during economic collapse. Multiple uses.
you can only have so much vodka stored, but one trivial machine would provide endless quantities of 60 deg alcohol out of virtually any product. cigarettes, on the other hand, not so simple to make yourself.  Exactly. Growing the tobacco is the hardest part, and it's not hard. After it's grown, you just dry it and smoke it. You can even wrap tobacco in tobacco. It's called a cigar. |
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Seriously?
Well, the production will decline by half, from 25 BTC per block to 12.5 BTC per block (which, at 144 blocks today means a drop from 3,600 BTC per-day to 1,800 per-day). So at block 420,000 there will be 15,750,000 BTC minted (more than 3/4ths of all coins that will ever be mined). The rate of currency inflation will drop from an 8.3% rate on an annual basis to a 4.1% currency inflation rate.
The speculation occurring today may already include a premium due to the weighing of this event -- even though it is still roughly 3.75 years away.
This. Intelligent speculators understand the supply side of the fundamentals before they make their first trade. Sure, there will always be a few who are taken by surprise, but that will be a smaller and smaller portion of the market each time it happens. |
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no one mentioned nickels. If the dollar gains value you can cash them in for face, if the dollar loses value you can melt them, win win.
Sure, when they become so worthless they are dropped. Until then they are illegal to melt. They will trade above face though, as copper pennies do, just not full scrap value. US coins are illegal to melt. No our politicians are not bought and paid for. I never said it was legal, but thank you for making that clear. It will be legal to melt pennies if the government ever retires the penny, although in such a situation, they may confiscate them. Likely, they will just suck them out of circulation via banks and not worry about individuals, but you would obviously have issues cashing in the raw copper if they were supposed to be turned in. Same with nickles, although they don't need sorted like pennies. |
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The last ATH was stopped when Mt Gox got hacked. It might take something like that to destroy confidence again.
Give it time... over exuberance will lead to mistakes. There are plenty of new, large bitcoin holders who haven't had their hacking cherry popped yet. Hint: keeping a wallet anywhere near a web server is not a good idea. |
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3000btc away from new all time high
that's $90,000 federal reserve toilet tissues
Toilet tissues? Toilet tissues have more intrinsic value, you can't wipe your ass with greenbacks.  Sure you can, and 90% of them have cocaine residue  . |
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no one mentioned nickels. If the dollar gains value you can cash them in for face, if the dollar loses value you can melt them, win win.
Sure, when they become so worthless they are dropped. Until then they are illegal to melt. They will trade above face though, as copper pennies do, just not full scrap value. |
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My bad. I just took a quick glance at the github page and saw a similar directory layout to a rails project. Looking more closely I clearly jumped the gun. I can understand your desire for statelessness, but adding the mtgox api check a few time per day in addition would keep the data fresher than updating once a day, but you could keep your stateless updates just in case. I guess it wouldn't make a difference most of the time, but when btc is in rally mode your page is pretty useless.
The page updates once per minute ... it's very fresh. I fixed it yesterday morning ... until then it only updated once per day and even missed a few rallies, and was useless. Now I find it quite useful. Ah, okay. I missed the part where you said you updated it. I was still going off the OP where it said it updated once per day. Sorry for the thread clutter. |
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My bad. I just took a quick glance at the github page and saw a similar directory layout to a rails project. Looking more closely I clearly jumped the gun. I can understand your desire for statelessness, but adding the mtgox api check a few time per day in addition would keep the data fresher than updating once a day, but you could keep your stateless updates just in case. I guess it wouldn't make a difference most of the time, but when btc is in rally mode your page is pretty useless.
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It took Facebook 8 years to reach a value of 100 billions which would be $4761 for each coin.
If btc reached just one tenth of that value in the next 6 years they will have to grow with atleast $1 every week on avarage.
To reach the same value, within 6 years the price would have to grow with $2 each day, on avarage.
Ofcourse such growth would not be linear but go in waves.
Thing is, thinking in dollars per week/day doesn't necessarily make much sense. A $1 gain when the price is $1 is MASSIVE at 100%. When the price is $1000, a $1 gain is insignificant. At current ~11 million coins, the price would have to be slightly over $ 9000 to be at $100B market cap. In order to get there in 6 years, the price would have to increase 257x, or about 2.52x a year (that's 152% yearly growth). That translates to 1.08x every month, or 8% growth per month, which is about 0.26% daily growth. Those calculations are done with the assumption of 11M coins in existence, I didn't calculate inflation in. With that included, the growth would have to be somewhat faster. If you include money supply inflation, the price growth required is slower not faster. |
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Looks like you are using ruby. Here you go: https://github.com/sferik/mtgoxgives you the high for the past 24 hours. Check it twice a day and you're golden. |
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Towards the end, I think. Institutional investors won't be long now. So, what, like $35 in 2022, then slow, steady growth?
I have no idea on numbers, but I would think by 2022 the price will still be higher than $35. The 2022 price could still be high compared to now, but way below whatever the new all-time high will be between now and 2022. What is the big deal with institutional investors? An institutional investor is just someone, with or without investment power, that has convinced you and a few others to give him your money, and that he is so smart that even if he takes a cut from everybody, the remaining profit is still bigger than you can produce yourself. Right, but a fool and his money are easily parted. The world has enough fools that the institutional investors wield crazy amounts of capital. |
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One day left for new and existing subs for March.
Next month I'm dropping you if your subscription costs more than my phone with 3gb of data. It's awfully close this month. I think that's part of the idea. By quoting the price in BTC rather than USD, the success of the market causes the subscription business to grow. Also, this encourages people to pay for a year in advance if they have faith in Bitcoin. Personally, I can't afford it any more. $70 a month is a bit too much. Personally, I feel like he would have more subscribers with a lower fee. It's not like he customizes content, so why not put it in as many hands a possible? Like my uncle used to say, all you need to do is build something a 200,000 people will pay $5 a month for to be a millionaire. |
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The over-due correction is happening now. Stop Selling! Now is the time to buy  One large sale is not a correction. One large correction is a sale. |
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Broader market conditions seem extremely favorable to Bitcoin at the moment. The Fed's ultra easy money policy will fuel another asset bubble, with artificially low interest rates allowing a lot of potential startups to borrow money for new business ventures. Institutional investors will see the overoptimistic growth predictions in these startups and look to pump money into them. Whoever is invested in these emerging markets will likely make a lot of money within the next 5 years. What will be the largest, most speculative, most credit-fueled emerging market? You guessed it: Bitcoin. The catch is that in accordance with Austrian Business Cycle Theory, a lot of these new Bitcoin business that emerge will not properly reflect consumer preferences. The easy credit from the Fed will cause substantial malinvestment, and a lot of the new Bitcoin businesses will fail after the Bitcoin market inevitably crashes. I'm going to arbitrarily predict that the crash will occur near the end of the current decade. Chances are that the price of Bitcoin will crash too. But in the 2020s, after the junk is cleaned out, stable growth of the Bitcoin market will resume. The point is, to an optimist like myself, we are the "smart money" in the following chart:  Institutional investors have yet to participate in the market. In fact, almost no one even knows what Bitcoin is. So it's possible that there is a great deal of money to be made. Best of luck. Towards the end, I think. Institutional investors won't be long now. So, what, like $35 in 2022, then slow, steady growth? |
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bubble is if we see triple digits in february. this is growth.
But March is cool, right? |
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One day left for new and existing subs for March.
Next month I'm dropping you if your subscription costs more than my phone with 3gb of data. It's awfully close this month. |
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The difficulty has increased has increase over the last year by a factor of 4 while the price has increased by a factor of 8 or more. How is this hurting a struggling GPU miner?
Um ... "halving" (50 BTC per block to 25, occurred in November). Those who sell their mined proceeds shortly after they are earned didn't sell them at $31, then sold them at $11, and $15, and $18, etc as it rose. So they are just now doing better than the level of profitability they were at right before the halving. But this 20% difficulty increase will cut their REVENUE 20%, which decimates their profits if their margins (revenue minus expenses) wasn't that great. And that's why you use mining to acquire bitcoin and not fiat. |
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I apologize for all the bearish bullshit lately, I was desperately trying to win my bet and at the same time trying to convince myself that taking some profits was OK... clearly i have acted in a most selfish way, I will be punished with alot of useless fiat! ( could be worst ... ) now where the hell am i going to invest my profits?? RRSP?  Thanks man, I got one last buy under 31. I even joined in with the occasional bear jab. |
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