For sure, I understand that everyone can establish his own fuck you status level, so I am currently using the $2 million as the default entry-level status, just as a guideline for westerners, and so I have never even ever asserted that to be my own entry-level fuck you status.

Also my use of $2 million is based on traditional financial 4% withdrawal rules, and I have surely come to the conclusion that bitcoin could sustain much higher levels, such as 10% or more while still maintaining the same withdrawal rate of a guy who has $2 million in traditional investments, a bitcoin HODLer could have around $800k and achieve the same sustainable level of income of $6,666 per month, as long as he is valuing his stash on the 200-WMA rather than spot price.

So yeah I have largely already said my piece because we are  in a public thread, and surely if you are able to accurately measure your variables and your ways of achieving sustainable withdrawal, I am not going to proclaim that your system is not going to work, even if I express a decent amount of skepticism in regards to your various claims that seem to involve your ongoingly selling your BTC.. so as I said it seems quite difficult to build or maintain your stash under those kinds of conditions.

And, for sure i agree with the need of existing debt to be able to be serviced from a variety of existing cashflows, so yeah sometimes there can be some juggling going on when it comes to servicing debt, but surely I am not opposed to the use of debt in the balance of various kinds of ways to also have bitcoin in the mix in which you may well be able to hold and sustain higher levels of bitcoin because you are using various debt instruments and you have various other (perhaps mostly non-bitcoin) ways of servicing your debts.  I have no problem with those kinds of things as long as guys do not overdo it and devolve into gambling, which seems that earlier you had made some disclosures regarding some of the ways that you had previously overextended yourself with debt, and then you had some family expenses and they you also were so sure that they BTC price was going down when we were in the sub $20ks and even throughout the $20ks, so it would be difficult to imagine how you could have been doing the right things when you were whining so much about how you were doing the wrong things and expecting BTC prices to go down more when they ended up doing the exact opposite of what you seemed to be betting on.

So whatever, I don't need to know all your details, and surely we have other members saying the various points that they are selling their bitcoin, which sure, sometimes it seems to work out, but other times, it seems that they are largely selling at questionable times.. but surely not completely wrong times if they have reached a fuck you status level or even multiple levels of fuck you status, but it seems that a lot of times, the guys are not even close to being at fuck you status, but instead largely able to defer gratification.. and yeah, we don't always know a lot of the details, but this is still a public thread so if you are bragging about all of the BTC that you are selling, then guys here are more than free to become skeptical about the general applicability of such claims and even if it seems to make much sense in the whole context of matters, including that in your earliest days on the forum you might have been involved a bit much in shitcoins before you become more of a bitcoiner... so yeah, I am not completely claiming to know or even want to know all of your history or to analyze you or anything like that... but again, we are in a public thread in which we should likely already know that an overwhelming majority of the worlds population are no coiners and low coiners rather than being a in a position to be spending their bitcoin on the regular.

Who is the "we?"   Are you just talking about yourself or some other looney who believes to know which way the BTC price is going to go in the short term?


Why?  Are you just guessing?


True.  We may.  And also true that we may not have to wait for a long time.


It is dangerous to put folks into one category, as if everyone is in the same place... There are all kind of ways that people differ in terms of their BTC holdings and/or their management of their holdings.

To the extent that you are suggesting that an overwhelming number of folks are either no coiners or low coiners, then you would be correct in that regard, if that might be what you are saying.


"Fully trust?"  Are you guaranteeing something?

I would suggest figuring out a BTC allocation that is comfortable rather than thinking in terms of all or nothing.

I don't see how you could have had become a degenerate BTC HODLer, since you are constantly talking about how many expenses that you have and how you are spending large quantities of your BTC.. .. so it would seem difficult to either meaningfully stack or get to a place in which it would become justifiable to start shaving off your stash, such as if you were at or near fuck you status.. which surely could be described in a variety of ways.. but someone who is constantly bragging about the ways that he is spending his coins would hardly even be i a status of having had either accumulated many bitcoins and/or to have been able to advantage from multiple compounding effects from the value doubling several times.

Well that is too bad.. Phoenix seems to be amongst the best of the seeming (or mostly) self-custody and fairly easy to use kinds of a lightning network wallets (and fairly reliable, too), in which there is no need to run your own node.. fuck..

I am going to have to look into and/or try to figure out some other kind of a lightning wallet solution. .which is too bad.. since sometimes it can take time to learn and get used to some of these kinds of things.. and even with Phoenix I had not really been able to use the funds that often.... sometimes just looking for reasons to try to practice with it, and surely it would be nice to meet more people in the real world to exchange directly, but then now having fewer lightning network options.

I was using Breez until they force closed one of my channels a few months ago.. and so maybe I will try them again, unless I come across something else... I also had the lighting wallet on Bluewallet that ended up getting closed, too... what was that maybe over a year ago?

Regarding your theory about the IRS, I am thinking that it more likely has to do with the Samurai developers getting surprisedly arrested, and surely other kinds of ongoing vindictive behaviors of USA government agencies.. and so maybe they consulted with legal counsel or just consulted amongst themselves to figure it is not worth it to be taking chances of getting treated like the Samurai developers or even the Tornado cash developers or some other the other vindictive cases related to bitcoin (and shitcoins too) that have been coming out of the USA.

You are still describing and even trying to worship traders as if you know how to tell the difference between a good trader and a not so good one, when the fact of the matter is that trading does not pay off for an overwhelming number of folks who even attempt it, and in bitcoin, we have had the overwhelming majority of folks profiting from establishing and following a practice that mostly errors on the side of accumulating bitcoin and holding it... not fucking around with trading and trying to believe that you are able to time tops and bottoms.. which is a bunch of bullshit where a lot of folks who try such a thing end up selling too much too soon and making a variety of other mistakes, so there is no need to be worshiping those kinds of practices and trying to act like it is some kind of practice that normies should aspire to.


Yes, and your description there appears as if you also are aspiring to figure out how to make fiat gains from your bitcoin, which seems to be an inferior way of thinking about the matter, but whatever you can do you, and some of us can suggest that you are framing the matter in inferior ways... which seems to be the case.

By the way, since you are wanting to seem like such a smartie pants, have you been able to beat a strict DCA approach to BTC?

If we look at your forum registration date, if you had been accumulating $100 per week of BTC since your forum registration date, you would have invested about $44k and you would have had accumulated right around 16.7 BTC, which would not be too bad, and so whatever you are doing in regards to your proclamations of abilities to time tops and bottoms, are you reaching equivalent or better results than that?   Personally, I don't really see any needs to perform better than that, but hey there might be some ways that guys are able to beat the performance of a largely strict DCA approach.. or even some hybrid variation of a strict DCA approach, but I doubt that fucking around with trading, even though you are trying to describe trading as something else would be an appropriate route forward for the overwhelming number of normies who might be considering whether and how to get into BTC.


Fuck crypto.

If the only thing that you are investing in is bitcoin, shitcoins and cash, then you should have no more than 10% of the value of your bitcoin in shitcoins, and so therefore 90% of that part is in bitcoin.

Another thing is that when you are investing and trying to figure out targets of how much you are going to invest in bitcoin (again fuck shitcoins, don't be preoccupying yourself with that nonsense), then you have to figure out a variety of factors in terms of your varius goals.. that largely relate to how much disposable income that you have available to invest and then how much of that are you striving to invest, and surely you can also look at your overall income and maybe your investment might amount to somewhere between 5% and 25% of your total income, but you cannot even get to that if you are in a situation in which your income is not sufficiently larger than your expenses.

Of course, if you had already been investing into other things, then you might consider how much you would like your bitcoin investment to be as compared to the other things that you already have in your investment portfolio, especially referring to what might be the quasi-liquid portion of your investment portfolio which could be things like property, equities, bonds, cash/cash equivalents and commodities ....and yeah shitcoins are not a part of that on purpose.. and sure if you have some kind of a gambling tendency, you should at least limit your inclinations to gamble on shitcoins to no more than 10% the size of your bitcoin holdings, but surely you should be figuring out your bitcoin investment and strategy first prior to getting distracted into shitcoins and you should not be cheating when it comes to your limitation into shitcoins of no more than 10% since there are slippery slope tendencies that any gambler has, and if you are attracted to shitcoins you already have gambling tendencies that you should try to get rid of, but if you cannot get rid of them, then you should at least limit them to less than 10% of the size of your bitcoin holdings... and try to be reasonable about it rather than tryiing to manipulate your allocation into shitcoins when you keep losing them but bitcoin keeps going up, so then you end up fucking up and draining your bitcoin investment if you are not trying to control your inability to stay focused on value rather than attempting to get rich quick through various scams, shiny objects and distractions.


Yeah, but if we go by your forum registration date, you have ONLY been into bitcoin for about a year and a half, and also I think that in some of your other posts, you mentioned that you were not accumulating bitcoin aggressively (or even consistently) during your whole forum registration time.. and in some sense, I am largely trying to say that you are spoiled by bitcoin largely going up during your whole time in bitcoin.. Yeah, sure there have been some pauses and corrections, but if you look at the charts, from your forum registration until present, the BTC price looks almost like a straight line up.. so that is a bit of an artificial status. which is part of the reason that any of us likely need to get through a whole cycle, and yeah, you sure may well end up concluding that bitcoin has been very good to you, even if you spend another 3 years or more accumulating bitcoin and even if you end up buying some BTC at higher prices than any subsequent correction might end up being doing the road.

Yes.. so one level of mistake of overinvesting is not to project out your expenses well enough, so then your BTC ends up serving as an emergency fund, which is not what you want to have, whether the BTC price is up or down, you want to mostly be keep building your BTC stack, even if you are in profits, especially if you are still in earlier times of building your stash.

So yeah having various cashfloats can help you to never have to touch your BTC, except as a very last resort.. and so the way that you structure your cash reserves can vary, and personally, I think that there should be some cash reserves that you never have to touch almost no matter what, except a true emergency.. and if you are already anticipating irregular cashflows (income), then that is not an emergency, and if you already have bad health and you expect that you might have some extra medical expenses, those are not emergencies either..... so frequently cash reserves and cash floats will be used to address cashflow irregularities or expense irregularities that you may or may not anticipate, and so you might go 20-30 years or more without ever touching your actual emergency funds, and so if you never have to touch your emergency fund, you are also never going to have to touch your bitcoin, so yeah, it can take a long ass time to build all of these kinds of reserves that may also allow you to invest more aggressively into bitcoin once you have various kinds of cash reserves in place.. ..

So the BIG tests of whether you are doing these things well and/or correctly will come during various kinds of times in which many negative things might be happening and you are still able to hold onto your bitcoin and maybe even continue to buy BTC when everyone else around you seem to be panicking.. .but none of what I am saying should necessarily stop any normie from regularly, consistently and persistently buying BTC through something like DCA and other methods, yet there surely is a lot of importance in making sure that you are keeping some cash cushions and having some decent ideas about how your income and your expenses might change from time to time, and if you decide to spend money on something that is not of your normal behaviors, you might really have to account that your purchase could end up affecting other things that you do down the road and even screw up some of your abilities to continue to buy bitcoin if you have not structured your various purchases, including bitcoin, in ways that also account for your keeping various cash cushions in place that you would use those cash cushions prior to your emergency fund and prior to your even having to come close to touching your BTC.


Surely if someone is investing 100% of his discretionary income into bitcoin that might be on the border of too aggressive because he might not be adequately accounting either his income or expenses, so there would be no room for mistakes, unless, he were to invest that amount at the end of the pay period rather than at the beginning, meaning that if he were to only make his investment of all his extra money right before his next check had arrived, so then he would be at least eliminating the possibility for mistakes, so then his next period starts again after his check for the next pay period arrived.

There could be some folks who say that they are doing 100% but they really are not because they are keeping various kinds of cash cushions, but then they could still be accurate in claiming that once they calculate their various kinds of cash cushions are in place, then they will invest 100% of their remaining cash into bitcoin, whether that is weekly or some other period of time of spreading out the buys.

Good points Tmoonz.. .. I had not paid as much attention to some of usekevin's points about waiting and trying perfect entry points, and also those little implications that bitcoin is merely just one coin among other coins.. which surely I tend to find those kinds of comments problematic in terms of failing/refusing to recognize the power of bitcoin in a sufficiently clear enough way.


It is crazy for people to have some kinds of bearish ideas in their head because of dumbass beliefs that we are not getting to $100k quick enough..

Those are stupid ideas that a lot of people seem to share with their dumbass maniacal focus on $100k as if that random price holds much if any meaning beyond the symbolism of 6 digits rather than 5 digits.. so fucking what?

That $100k price is ONLY around $36.5% higher than our current price, and it is only around 26% higher than our current ATH of $73,794... so these are all amateur amounts of BTC price appreciation that is likely to be coming down the road (of course, it is not guaranteed but surely neither BIG numbers or even signs that bitcoin is struggling to get to $100k.

And if you are suggesting that bitcoin's failure to reach $100k in 2021 is some kind of failure, then that seems a bit too much reading into the matter, even though surely bitcoin's UPPity price performance of the 2021 cycle was much less than it's 2017 Uppity price performance, but all of that still seem like BIG SO FUCKING whats in regards to proclaiming some kind of disappointment because BTC is either not going up fast enough or various other measures that suggest that BTC prices should be higher than they are.. .. which yeah, maybe you have good intentions with some of that, but I think that the fact of the matter is that bitcoin is still doing pretty good and continues to do pretty good and there seem to be no need to ascribe high expectations upon it and then proclaim that it is failing to sufficiently/adequately perform when the fact of the matter is that anyone buying BTC for long periods of time and mostly erroring on the side of either accumulating and/or holding BTC (even if they done so in relatively whimpy ways) have gotten rich as fuck by engaging in such practices that mostly accumulate and hold bitcoin rather than worrying about if bitcoin is topping or under performing or whatever.

Even with you, you have been registered on the forum for nearly as long as me, and so if you had even been engaging in a fairly modest BTC accumulation and holding practice of even $20 per week for the last 9.5 years, you would have invested around $10k, yet you would have had accumulated nearly 8 BTC (you can enter the calculation here - https://costavg.com/), so hopefully whatever you have been doing has been able to come close to those kinds of results.. even though I know some folks get delayed in their start to bitcoin but still .. seems to have had been a good policy and practice to ongoingly accumulate and hold BTC until you get up to a quantity of having enough or more than enough BTC,  and surely someone who is ONLY putting around $20 per week into BTC might have gotten to a point of having enough or more than enough BTC if he has nearly 8 BTC right now.. yet none of us can necessarily answer for the conditions of someone else without having more information.

How would the question(s) be generated?  from you, or maybe from some kind of random question generator that might be based on some kind of a set of question topic parameters, like it the questions would have to fall in some kinds of categories that are either connected to bitcoin, the forum, to health and fitness or maybe some other topics might be permissible question areas.. and that does not seem easy to generate a question and then maybe you would (or would not) end up screening the question if it might end up being some kind of question that does not seem to fit well with whatever topics might potentially be relevant to this thread.... .. or maybe you are thinking about something else?


Oh gawd.. 

You still have not figured out how to do a pushup report?  yeah your total number of pushups seems correct, but the 80, 90, 50, and 80 should be the total number of days that you have been doing pushups, and not the number of pushups that you did on each of the days.

Your earlier reports also seem messed up in terms of the weird date from your prior report which was on the 21st month. which maybe you meant that to be the 4th month and the 21st day... .. but anyhow, at that time you had 10 days, so probably by the 25th you have 14 days.. of doing pushups.. but I am not going to fix your report.. since I am currently in a just say no phase of actually trying to catch sardines for other forum members (ie pushers of pushups).


The rest of what you were saying in your post makes sense, yet in regard, to your last few sentences, I would like to say that probably in your 20s and 30s and maybe even into your early 40s, a fairly regularly fit guy should be able bench somewhere in the ballpark of 75% to 125% of his body weight (of course gals would be less maybe half of the guys in the ballpark of 50%-ish of their weight), and of course, if someone never exercises, then he may well have difficulties reaching the bottom of that fitness/strength range.  Heavier folks are also going to have difficulties meeting the bottom end of the range, and as you get older it might become nearly impossible to reach the bottom end of the range without ongoing practice or other ways of staying physically fit.  Of course being able to bench your whole body weight and higher is a good sign of decent strength and there are surely some guys who can bench way higher than the range that I mentioned. 


For sure it is reasonable to do an estimate of your prior activities in the event that you had not been keeping close track and in the event that some kind of a reporting system starts, like we have in this case... So I am not going to blame guys for that, except maybe they should just mention if they are estimating.. which surely there might be several guys who have done some kinds of estimating.  

So for example, sometimes if I am in the middle of my pushups I am concentrating on counting and breathing and the pain of doing the pushups and maybe sometimes I also will lose track of the count of how many pushups that I had done.. so that could end up being a kind of estimation.. or if I do my pushups and then I walk away and start doing something else, and then if I go to do my next set of pushups but then I see that I forgot to write down my earlier set, there could end up being some estimation rather than accuracy, and surely I attempt to be more conservative in my own estimation especially if I might not be able to remember exactly because I might be doing several other things during the day.


Ok.. that explanation makes more sense.. but you still have an extra period after your comma, which such inclusion of an extra period might screw up Dirty Keyboard's script's ability to accurately read your report, which means your report results would not get put into the table until the script is able to pick it up.

I mostly don't have problems with your approach, except it seems difficult for a lot of folks to figure out some of the market dynamics that you are proposing to be signals as to when to DCA and when not to DCA, and personally, I consider DCAing to be a method to accumulate a stake and to prepare for the possibility of more UP (even though no one really knows), but largely a person (newbie or otherwise) would likely have to both go by their perception of how many BTC that they already have in order to feel sufficiently prepared for more up in case it happens, and so with that kind of rationale there could be some perception that "I already have enough in case it goes up more", so even if the price is very high and seeming toppy, if a person has absolutely no BTC, then he has to get at least a bit in order to prepare for the possibility of UP, but he may well let off or ONLY engage in light DCA because in those kinds of situations there may be senses that the price is too toppy, and not even expiernced bitcoiners know those kinds of things, and in 2017 we had BTC prices that had gotten in the ballpark of 14x higher than the 200-WMA, yet in 2021, the BTC prices ONLY got in the ballpark of 3x-5x higher than the 200WMA (and the 5x was in the first 2021 price peak and the 3x was in the second 2021 price peak even though it was higher in absolute terms it was not higher relative to the 200-WMA)..

So yeah arguments could reasonably be made that BTC prices are not going to reach such relatively high levels as they did in 2017, and so far this recent price peak they have ONLY gotten a bit above 2x higher than the 200-WMA. (you can check the historical price differences on this website).

Maybe part of my point for the newbie would be to do DCA no matter what for a full 4-year cycle, but maybe if there might be some obvious signs of tops to lessen the amount of the DCA amount, even though  that lessening of the DCA amount might not even be justified if the person is already not holding very much BTC..

So personally it seems to me that your suggestions of turning DCA on and off EarnOnVictor does not really seem to account very well for issues of already existing BTC stash size or even having some built-in assumptions that normies might be able to figure out when the BTC price is UP or DOWN - even though some times the signs seem kind of obvious, but even at times when the signs seem obvious, the BTC price ends up doing the opposite of what would be expected based on the seemingly obvious signs (especially in the short term), so we (or at least an overwhelming majority of normies - especially newbie normies, which should be a group that we are attempting to account for their needs to learn) might not really be able to identify the obvious until it had already happened.


We cannot say that the BTC price witll certainy go up in the future, even if it seems that it has a strong investment thesis.  We can say that for sure if we do not invest with leverage, then the most that we will lose by investing in bitcoin is 100%, but we have decently good chances of being able to put ourselves in a better position by investing into bitcoin rather than not investing into bitcoin as long as we figure out some way to balance that we do not overly invest into bitcoin,

but that there are some reasonable justifications to attempt to allocate aggressively rather than whimpily, even though historically sometimes even whimpy investments into bitcoin have ended up paying off quite substantially for those who either purposefully or accidentally held for many years.. or maybe just kept investing relatively whimpily over many years and then ending up with a fairly large value for their bitcoin holdings at later dates - so in some sense, even if the upside potential for bitcoin is likely not as great as it was in the past, bitcoin retains one of the best, if not the best investment thesis amongst various assets that individuals might be able to gain access.

Yeah, but I don't think that I am really saying that, since newbies might already start out investing as much as they can invest, while they might also be making sure to build and emergency fund and to try to make other balances in their finances (and psychology is partly based on having good finances in place), so the brand newbies might not have extra money available that they are able to invest - and sure, we cannot generalize because financial situations of people will differ.. yet, I think that the main point that I was making was that brand newbies or even anyone investing into bitcoin for just a year or two, really should not have any reason to be getting excited about bitcoin prices going up unless they had financial abilities to front load their investments (so they might be newbies to bitcoin but not newbies to investing).


That is mostly true for investors who had not been able to front-load.. which is likely a large majority of investors, because sometimes even some new investors who are able to front load, they still might take a decently long period of time 6 months to 2 years or even longer to establish their targeted accumulation level, for example if someone has $100k invested in various non-BTC investments that he had built up over the past 10 years (so maybe he already had built up a habit of investing $200 per week), and then he comes to BTC, and instead of investing $200 per week, he would like to get up to a 15% allocation (which would be in the ballpark of $15k), but he does not want to screw up aspects of his other non-BTC holdings, so maybe he will invest something like $500 per week for the next 30 weeks (which is slightly more than 6 months), and so he figures out some way to accomplish that kind of a front loading, but in the meantime, he might study bitcoin and still figure that whatever he had been able to accomplish was not necessarily enough, so he might end up extending his investment plan, so yeah, maybe in this particular example the guy is mostly ok. with bitcoin staying down while he is establishing his initial stake which he considers is goign to take him 6 months to reach his target.


So then there could be some questions regarding whether newbies might be able to employ more than one plan at a time, or whether they might have to get their initial stake in BTC, and maybe the guy who has absolutely no other investments, and he can only afford to invest between $20 and $40 per week, and maybe he might have another $10 to $20 that he might be able to either throw in on weeks that he believes the BTC price is low, or he is just saving an extra $10 to $20 per week to buy on dips, so it is not really clear if he is advantaged by saving the extra $10 to $20 on the side or just adding it to the $20-$40 amount that he is already investing every week...

Frequently, I personally would be suggesting that as long as the newbie is buying every week, then maybe he might attempt to strategize his buys within the week to try to get them on dips within the week, but he may well be better off just spending whatever he has available every week, instead of holding back some amounts to prepare for dips.. but maybe after he has been already engaging in those kinds of strategies to invest $20 to $60 per week (adding in the extra part of the range of how much he has available per week), then after a year or two of doing that, then maybe he can start to tailor his practices, and even now, if the BTC prices goes shooting up to $200k or higher in 2024 or even $400k or higher in 2025, there may be some points in which a person might choose to not invest as aggressively and to hold back some of his weekly allowance amounts for possible dips.. but yeah in these price territories and maybe anything below $120k would not necessarily justify any needs to hold back depending on how much a person is able to get in and if he is continuing to earn an income, the money is still coming in, the $20-$60 per week and so the decision is whether to just keep on buying or whether to hold any of that back to be able to buy on dips that might happen (outside of his weekly buys - or even skip some weekly buys)... and I surely cannot really say what would be the best thing to do, and sometimes there can be some advantage in investing all of the authorized amount right away, and other times there could become some advantages in holding some of that back and allowing it to build up until some dips happen.


I don't really disagree with anything that you said, except when you are pointing out $100k as if it might be some kind of a target goal, that just seems short-sighted and whimpy in terms of any kind of goal that a newbie might have.. .. if you are fairly new to bitcoin don't you just keep buying at $100k?  i would think so, but yeah, maybe it also depends on how long you have been accumulating.. less than 4 years, and how much have you been able to accumulate relative to your annual income.. those kinds of factors could help to inform a guy regarding what to do and whether to continue to continue accumulating, and yeah this thread has a $100k discussion points, so maybe that is a bit bothersome in terms of planting seeds in the minds of some regular people that $100k would be any kind of meaningful target level, unless maybe the guy had already been in bitcoin for more than a whole cycle, and maybe even reached fuck you status, but even I am not proclaiming that broad sales should be done at any price point since I am more of an advocate of incrementalism both in terms of accumulation, but also in terms of strategies that involve selling BTC too (after sufficient quantities of it have already been accumulated).


I don't read the market like that.

I don't see the market saying that it is "not easy to make it to 6 digits"

You can read the market however, you like , but I see the BTC price went up right around 7.5x in 4.5 months, but then there is a bit of a pause.. So what?  The pause has a lot less significance than what you seem to be making it out to be, especially when there have been several attempts to go back down that have not been working out very well.. so you can read all that you like into the failure to go up rather than the failure to go back down..

Interpret the situation to your own desire and hopefully you have sufficiently and adequately prepared your own self for up in case it happens to happen.


I agree with you here that FinePoine0 seems to be talking gobble-dee gook.


Seems that FinePoine0 is talking gobble-dee-gook here too.

How could you forget about our having had gone into poor mode?  Currently, as I type this post, with BTC prices around $64,337, we are nearly 13% down from our March 13 ATH.. If that is not poor, then what is?

I also feel that it is so strange that there are so many ongoing attacks on bitcoin in these kinds of times, so there's gotta be some kind of way to scare folks out of their coins.. and some of us stubborn ones, we are too busy buying when the BTC price drops, so we might not even realize that in the whole scheme of things, we are becoming more poor when the price goes down - even though previously, some of us might have also been pondering over how amazing that it has been to go from $27k to nearly $74k in a matter of 5 months, even though we corrected back down to a mere $64.3k... 

and I know some folks (maybe especially newbies?) keep repeating the lack of historical precedent of the BTC price going above its prior ATH before the halvening even occurred.. so if they might be suggesting going from $27k to nearly $74k in a little less than 4.5 months, which surely is right around 2.75x, and so it might have had been a premature overexuberance, but we also had something similar from April 2019 to late July 2019, with a price rise of $4,200 to $13,880 (which is about 3.5x), and yeah that was not sustainable with out some kind of leveling off, so even if these price rises (the reasons for them) and the exact location of them in the cycle does not match with precision, there can be too much expectation of exact matching instead of appreciating that these outrageous UPs and DOWNs sometimes happen, but at the same time, you are not going to get me all excited about even a 19% drop, which would be the measurement of our $59,629 low, which happened to be slightly more than 1 day prior to the halvening.

Shit happens, and who knows which way it is going to go exactly, but it is hardly even worth waking up from whatever else we might be doing to make sure we go out and buy a 24 count of our favorite Ramen.. and perhaps put in our own meats if we really want to deny our poor status.


A little bit of a backlog, but yeah sure, they are eating their way back through some of the transactions that had been stuck in the mempool, and sure it will be good to get back down to single digits per vbyte.. if that might be possible,  even though I have been seeing some blocks in 20-ish sats per vbyte ..

https://mempool.space/mempool-block/0

many of them are still in the 40-ish sats per vbyte.. but yeah, maybe they will come back down if the runes nutjobs might be finding some difficulties in finding buyers for their minting crap or the various other complicated ways of supposedly creating a kind of artificial scarcity that may well not take off as much as some of the early adopters/propagators might be hoping.

I applaud you for playing around with various hypothetical persons and going back and forth to attempt to flesh out various considerations that might come into place depending on where a person is with his finances, yet within this one paragraph you seem to be mixing up ideas and framing them in confusing ways.  And, many times, guys are struggling to even consistently hold aside 10% of his income for investing, so it begins to be a bit unrealistic to be describing scenarios that guys have 50% or even 70% of their income available for investing, even though surely there are some people who are able to do that, but they tend to be exceptions rather than common kinds of scenarios... but it is possible, but not very realistic to be describing those kinds of outlier scenarios.. and maybe some of those were pushed more by @Moreno233 rather than by @teamsherry.

First, I would like to review that frequently a person can attempt to make a ballpark idea regarding how much of his income he is going to put into bitcoin, so maybe aiming for somewhere between 5% and 25% of his total income; however, he should not be able to come up with his exact target amount if he does not have some kind of an assessment of what his discretionary income is, so if his income and his expenses are almost the same, then he does not have any discretionary income, so he should not be investing into anything until he figures out how he can either increase his income and/or how to decrease his expenses so that he has a discretionary amount that he would be able to invest into bitcoin.

Of course, people with higher incomes have more abilities to actually make sure that they have some discretionary income, and sometimes folks with lower income have very few abilities to either increase their income or to cut their expenses because they are already living in such a way that they have little to no cushion... so those people cannot choose to invest into bitcoin or anything else until they figure out a way to increase or even create a situation in which they have discretionary income.

Second, I doubt that the concepts of whimpy versus aggressive have to do with how much you choose to invest, but instead they are choices about how much of your discretionary income that you invest.  So if you already figure out that on a monthly basis you have $2k coming in every month and you have $1,600 in expenses, so then you have figured out that you have $400 of discretionary income that you may well be able to invest into bitcoin, and so maybe the whimpy investor might invest $10 per week into bitcoin and the aggressive investor might invest $100 per week.. but of course, there are levels in between in terms of how much this person could choose to invest, and they might even choose to play it by ear, and some weeks they invest the least amount of $10 (by their own choice) and other weeks they choose to invest the maximum, but most of the weeks they choose to invest somewhere in the middle $50-$70, and so the higher that they are investing within their discretionary income, then the more aggressive that they are being, and if they have figured out all of their calculations correctly, then they would not be classified as overly aggressive, unless they were investing more than $100 per week and then putting themselves in a situation in which they are going above their discretionary income and therefore gambling and/or being reckless in terms of possibly putting themselves in a position that they might need some of the money that they had invested into bitcoin for their monthly expenses.


I mostly agree with this part.


I think that it can be helpful to attempt to describe concepts of whimpy versus aggressive, yet surely sometimes the context gets lost and for example, it might well make sense for some newbie investor into bitcoin to purposely start out whimpy in the way that he is investing into bitcoin, and only become more aggressive as he both gets used to investing into bitcoin and as he might be ensuring that he is maintaining a practice of building and keeping an emergency fund, a reserve and a float, and we likely realize that a person who has more cushion in his various forms of cash (whatever he calls them), he will have more abilities to be more aggressive because he is more informed about his situation, and yeah, the competition between kinds of investors and kinds of approaches may well more be suited to be a competition that a person has with himself rather than feeling any need to compete with anyone else, and maybe even if a guy might choose to compare various versions of himself, so he might be using terms such as whimpy versus aggressive in order to compare various versions of himself (or various approaches that he could choose to take) in terms of how much of his discretionary income that he might be using to invest into bitcoin or even other kinds of practices that he might choose in terms of when (and how much) within his own pay period to buy his BTC.

Maybe label Wasabi as "captured?"

hahahahaha

Those allegations of being captured or overly cooperating with persons who could "give up" personal data had already existed through some of the battles between Samurai and Wasabi in the past few years.

Do you really believe that Obim34 filled out the report correctly?  He has 64 days of pushups and 3,200 pushups.. which averages 50 pushups per day, but he says that he did 64 pushups today.. so for some reason it just coincidentally averages out to be 50 pushups per day?  Something does not seem correct about that report.. .. but yeah, maybe it is correct, and we have no earlier reference, since it is the first time that Obim34's push up information is being included into the pushup table.


I had those kinds of things happen to me a few times, so sometimes if I wanted to have a round number and I might miss the number by 1 or 2 pushups, then I will just stop, and then maybe wait 20 seconds or so and then maybe do 5 more pushups and count those 5 pushups as 1 or as 2 depending on the round number that I want to achieve.  I also sometimes go over my count by 1-2 pushups, and I only count the lower round number because I sometimes feel that some of my pushups might have been a bit sloppy, so I will just do 1 or 2 extra just to make sure that I am overshooting rather than undershooting, so that I can feel comfortable with any of the reports that I make.

By the way, you are also reporting your pushups incorrectly, since the first number after your name is the total number of days that you have been doing pushups and the second number is the total number of pushups for all of the days (and you have to keep track of those numbers so that you end up providing an accurate report), but instead you seem to be reporting 1 day at a time, which is not going to end up being your total pushups, but instead only your pushups for that day.. and Dirty Keyboard's script is not going to help you unless you figure out a way to help yourself by providing a report that has your totals for the whole time rather than merely for one day at a time.


Your extra space after then first comma might contribute to your report's not being properly counted by Dirty Keyboard's script.

There may be some ways in which we are saying very similar things, yet just saying those things in different ways - which kind of causes me to question if you are really taking in the ideas that I am attempting to share.

We all know that guys are responsible for what they do, so surely don't want to get into any kind suggestion in which I am telling guys what to do, even though frequently I can be quite forceful in my suggestion for everyone to make sure that they get some bitcoin and that guys should also attempt to be as aggressive as they can in regards to their bitcoin investment without overdoing it. .so each of us has to apply those concepts to their own situation and figure out their own balance, and surely I am not in favor of diversification for the mere sake of it - however, as any of us our building up our investment portfolio, there may well be no problem in terms of staying concentrated in one investment (including just having bitcoin and cash) for 5-10 years or longer, since it could take 5-10 years or longer merely to get your investment portfolio size up to an amount that is greater than 1-2 years of your income/expenses, and some of these amounts you are not going to know in advance in regards to either how much your income is going to be down the road or even how well BTC might or might not perform at various times that you are making the down the road measurements of how it is doing in reference to how you might have anticipated it to do in your earlier years of investing into it.

So part of the point is that your actually building of your wealth contributes to you becoming a person who is no longer poor because you start to have resources that you might or might not choose to dip into and you may well start to become concerned that you have too many of your then built wealth that is subjected to too much volatility, so your choices to diversify somewhat out of the investment and to put some value into other things (and perhaps even into inferior investments) may well become a consideration as kind of necessity that you have in order to preserve what wealth you had been building.. .. so merely the fact that you want to continue to build your wealth does not necessarily justify choices to not preserve the wealth that you might have had been building over 5-10 years or longer.. ..

but yeah, those may well be future considerations because you start out with perceptions of being very poor, but as your wealth grows you are not as poor as you used to be and you might even start to feel that you are becoming richer and richer, but you have some desires to make sure that you don't slip back into being poor, so you may well justify needs to diversify into other assets, and yeah, maybe you never consider shitcoins to be part of any diversification plan, but there may well become some kinds of investments that are justifiable in terms of diversification, especially if your only previous way was to diversify between cash and bitcoin, and so in several senses, you might be able to achieve some diversification in some other assets that are still serving some of the purposes of cash - except that they are earning yield rather than several of the disadvantages of cash that involves is ongoing debasement.. ..

and you don't resolve those matters by putting that value into bitcoin, since at that point you may well conclude that you already have a lot in bitcoin.. so you sometimes need other places to put it, and yeah, you might not come to those kinds of conclusions until 5-10 years down the road, and it would be way too premature to be ruling out those ideas merely because right now you are in your earliest years of building your investment portfolio that likely ONLY includes bitcoin  and cash and there is nothing wrong  with keeping that kind of focus until your investment portfolio might grown to a certain size that might start causing you to feel justification to spread it out a bit more... whether that is 1-2 years of income/expenses in your bitcoin, or maybe those feelings come when you have 5-8 years of your income that are ONLY in bitcoin and cash, and you may well strart to feel way too. concentrated and vulnerable.. and each of us has to make those kinds of decisions and hopefully you do not devolve into gambling merely because you are against the idea of diversification...which could lead to your own peril.. but that's your choice, if you end up gambling in those kinds of ways.


No one is saying to invest into shitcoins, but sometimes people consider those kinds of avenues, which might end up being better than keeping value in their local fiat.. or even if there is local fiat, dollars, stable coins and then there might be some choices that are made that could be justifiable down the road in terms of what you might have available in terms of keeping value or how long you might keep value in various places besides bitcoin and cash.


I am not suggesting to diversify too early.  I believe that diversification is not needed for several years, especially for poor people and probably even getting to a point of 1/2 year or even a whole year of income/expenses in bitcoin and in cash, but later on when your investment portfolio starts to get larger there surely can be some justification.. but you don't need to start out thinking that diversification is necessary. especially if you might only be investing $10-$20 per week, and so it may well take several years before it even makes sense to start to diversify.. so someone investing $20 a week for a year would have ONLY invested $1,040, and personally, I would think that it would take several years.. and yeah in that case after 10 years, the amount invested is only $10,400
and maybe if the BTC price had gone up 2x or 5x or even 10x, that may well not mean that your portfolio is worth 2x, 5x or 10x more, since some of your investments would have been earlier and some of them would have had come later, but if you have an income that is less than $10k per year, then if you have $30k in bitcoin, and $10k in cash (or cash equivalents), you might start to get nervous about having so much that is ONLY in bitcoin and in cash... especially if bitcoin might go up and down a lot and you might want to remove some of that volatility.. so yeah, there is no real direct answer and maybe you are not going to exactly know in advance in regards if there might be some justification in terms of diversifying some of your investment, which also might not mean selling your bitcoin, but might mean starting ot invest in other things., as mentioned, whether property, stocks, bonds, commodities or cash/ cash equivalents..


This all may well be correct..... so yeah, we are not really saying anything different in this part.


Fuck "crypto assets"

Who knows what you are talking about?  You don't even seem to know how to use the word "bitcoin" in a sentence, since you did not mention "bitcoin" in any place in your post, so how are we going to know what you are talking about?

Are you talking about bitcoin or some vague bullshit?

Do you even know what you are talking about?

There is no such thing as investing into "crypto assets".  That is retarded.

In order to have some kind of specificity about what we are posting about we can mention bitcoin... and we can also describe what we are going to do about our investment into bitcoin and our approach with bitcoin. That would be a lot more specific than your vague references to "crypto assets" whatever that means.. you sound like a mumbling and bumbling politician.... but if we are referring to some various shitcoins, then which one(s) are you referring too, and why the fuck would we want to either talk about them here or refer to them as some kind of vague concept?  Not that I am asking you to speculate about which shitcoins happen to be less shitty. .of to engage in some kind of compare and contrast of which shitcoins might or might not be a good idea.. that sounds really dumb.. so why not just stick with talking about bitcoin, and if you want to talk about some various shitcoins then take that to some other thread..... Another thing for guys who cannot help but to trade or gamble or to fuck around with shitcoins, hopefully you are able to at least limit yourself to less than 10% of the size of your bitcoin holdings, in the event that you cannot help yourself but to trade/gamble rather than invest.


Yes, any investment timeline of less than 4 years, including your proposal to get in and out in one year is trading rather than investing.. . so hopefully you do not end up selling too much too soon and never being able to get as many BTC because you were too busy fucking around with trading and gambling rather than accumulating BTC. .which likely would be the smarter way of approaching something like BTC..

But, hey, you are free to do what you like, even if it is not very smart.

Yesterday, I listened to an hour-long Hell's Money podcast in which Casey Rodarmor and Erin (cohost) talked what they had anticipated in regards to the Runes prior to the actual launching of the runes at the halvening.

Within the podcast, they said that they had recorded the podcast a couple of days before the halvening (start of runes) with an anticipation of releasing the episode a few days after the halvening.

Some folks could read the contents of the podcast in various ways in regards to what Rodarmor was expecting to happen in regards to the launching of the Runes.. and even though I am not exactly excited hearing some aspects of runes-discussion, including their proclaiming that they know that Runes might not be really adding any value (or that runes are designed for degen gamblers) - beyond some benevolent contribution that comes from driving up transaction fees (or providing additional (presumptively unstoppable) use cases for bitcoin).

I largely agree with you, even though you make your points kind of strangely in terms of the trading term of "taking profits."

Of course, we have a kind of built in presumption that in within a longer timeline bitcoin is likely to be higher in price than it is today and that it is likely going to continue to go up in price, even though surely we should recognize and appreciate that such ongoing upward trajectory is not guaranteed, so we cannot act as if such going up in price is guaranteed.. however, at the same time, we consider that if we are ongoingly stacking bitcoin, then we are likely going to have more options down the road as compared to now, whether our investment timeline is 4-10 years or longer... so bitcoin likely increases our options, even though we are not guaranteed to experience increased options through our involvement in it.

So yeah, I am not really liking that whole dynamic as taking profits, even though technically you are correct that profit-taking would exist in such circumstances that any of us start to either live off our bitcoin proceeds or to otherwise supplement our expenses and/or life-style by the fact that our bitcoin holdings are going to have good odds of either retaining their value or perhaps increasing in value in the coming 4-10 years or longer.


That sounds right.. .some newbies get too excited about bitcoin going up in price quickly, and bitcoin going up in price so quickly is not necessarily helpful to their situation, even though there is nothing that we can really do about it going up, except like you suggested, to keep stacking and try to continue to build our BTC stack so that maybe some day down the road we will be in even a better position for it to go up more.. and so we cannot really know for sure, but newbies, or even bitcoin accumulators/holders who have been in bitcoin for less than 1 or 2 cycles, they probably are still needing to continue stacking, even if the price seems to sometimes be going up alot. .which can also be kind of uncomfortable.. but it might really be the most practical way of approaching your journey to continually continue to build the size of your BTC stash, as you already mentioned.

God willing.

You are assuming that we will stay at $60k or above during the next 3 days? 

Today is pretty much a done deal that we will stay above $60k; however, we will need to complete two more days of staying above $60k after today in order to successfully kick off the remaining $50ks.

I think that the odds are somewhere in the ballpark of greater than 73.6129446% that we will stay above $60k in the next two days, but I probably would not want to place higher odds than that give or take 1.5%, in terms of my own personal approximation of the matter.

I had not been online in the past 15 hours or so, and so I had not know about this, so I did a quickie google search and found a few links, and yeah it is all over the news, and yeah sure maybe several of the on-the-spot articles are saying the same things, and probably there is going to be all kinds of discussion of the significance of these kinds of matters and potentially ways to fight what the US Govt is deeming to be crimes..

And yeah, is the USA Govt going to be successful in terms of going after individuals who are going to get put in jail and faced with potentially expensive legal fees (and perhaps in need of some pretty good lawyers, which surely we likely realize that even the lawyers might have difficulties arguing against overreach, injustices and rights to privacy, self-sovereignty and financial freedoms), and sure when you identify individuals, that will scare others away from developing and working on such privacy services, including like you suggested, the potential of ramping up the kinds of targets all the way down to node operators and perhaps the operators of private wallets too... so yeah, overreach and desperation of the USA hegemony tends to have snowballing effects.

1) https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/04/24/samourai-wallet-founders-arrested-and-charged-with-money-laundering/

2) https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/federal-prosecutors-charge-samurai-wallet-founders-with-money-laundering/

3) https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2024/04/25/samourai-wallet-charges-raise-existential-questions-for-privacy-tech/

4) https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/samurai-wallet-gets-the-chop-as-feds-twist-the-knife

5) https://bitcoinmagazine.com/legal/the-state-of-things-open-source-developers-arrested-for-writing-code

hahahahaha

Stay the fuck calm!!!!!!!!!!!