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Sorry, guys.
The first contact got all three coupons.
Exchange completed.
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Serves that douchebag fiat paper shill right.. I agree with description, but wallet management is tough, especially if you did not use the wallet for a few years. We think that we remember/record everything right, but sometimes we make mistakes (especially if trying to memorize something). Memory plays games from time to time. |
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Good morning WO's, Indeed it is over $9000 looking at 9155 and climbing. This is fine. Tet is coming soon and the karaoke parties are starting. I'm expecting prices to follow the celebrations of the next 10 days. Friends and atmosphere all in place. Here's a shot of our back yard currently. Any sleuths out there find this? Shouldn't be terribly difficult.  Blue Lagoon, Thailand? |
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pop
No brand new newbies since they have messaging limitations. If replying by PM, provide info regarding which coupon you want.
Payment only by crypto (for the sake of payment finality), preferably btc.
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heck, we can do better...a WO wonderful hatcoin (WOW or WOH).
The number of coins is limited to xhomerix -issued (he is the treasurer).
Should be no more than 100-150 so far, a few more later. This is a strict one hat-one token situation (collectible).
Or, maybe one hat gives you 10-100 coins so it is somewhat more liquid, so you can give your heroes a coin or two.
Could be a sidechain if we don't want ERC-something.
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My beloved Tulsi's campaign has fizzled out for the most part but many Presidents had to run multiple times to win.
If by some miracle she did win we could hold the 100k party with a full Secret Service detail. I would have her make the NSA scrub all data about our pasts from the internet for those who wanted it. Then she would give all US citizens who attended the party secret IRS lifetime tax exemptions for national security reasons and also full lifetime diplomatic immunity. Non US citizens would be offered full citizenship and IRS lifetime exemptions if they wanted. We could then form a government funded "Think Tank" and just meet each year to have lavish parties at the governments expense while we drafted recommendations for Madame President on how to proceed with monetary policy and a list of all Bitcoiners to be fully pardoned.
Right...I want to be the secretary of education, though since..wait, I need to focus my eyes. https://youtu.be/OoZ1-xPbNHg?t=19President's role is a tossup between The dude, Bob and V8 (mysterious and vague). |
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https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/eqblby/daily_discussion_saturday_january_18_2020/fepviu9/This guy has a different view I guess. I too think $100k would be max price this time but what if... So last year I made a prediction last year on January 1st. I don't think I did too bad. I thought we would bang on 6k a lot more and not just rocket through it. I thought we would double in price for the year, which we did. We just made a little pit stop to 13k first before coming back down and ending the year at 7k.
This year I think we'll double in price again to 14-15k. However, if we have another mini bubble like last year it could put us above 20k price, in which case all bets are off. If we don't break 20k I think we could bounce off of it, something like this. It would look like a big C&H on the weekly which is, of course, a bullish formation.
I've been lurking for a while here and I see talks of the next bubble. My own baseless long term speculation of the next bubble is probably a lot higher than others, which I find interesting. Many are expecting 70k to 100k and unless the long term prospects of bitcoin are already topping out then I feel that is a very low estimate. Generally bitcoin will do about 10x from the previous bubble top, which points to the next top being around 200k. I think it will get to at least that next bubble, with a higher, but less likely, target of 250k.
In fact that will lead to the perfect bubble catalyst, the overtaking of gold's market cap. If bitcoin's market cap = gold's then it would put bitcoin at 380,000 USD/coin. I guarantee you those will be the headlines that will cause the frenzy for the next bubble. "BITCOIN TO BECOME THE NEXT GOLD?" "BITCOIN IS THE NEW GOLD" "NEW ECONOMIC PARADIGM" "BITCOIN TO 1 MILLION USD?" When you see those headlines start to pop up as bitcoin hits 250k, you know that will be the top. That's your sell signal everyone. Don't miss it.
As for the bottom of the next bubble, I hope that bitcoin becomes more stable as time goes on and therefore retrace less. I still expect a big retracement from the top of the next bubble but I hope it doesn't go more than 60%. Even 70% would be harsh. If we have another 80% retracement it will leave me scratching my head as to why it isn't becoming more stable, but I'll still buy back in hard for the next bubble to 1million usd. I'll buy heavily from 100k and below.
Also, I think after this next bubble it will take longer to hit new highs and each subsequent bubble will be smaller in terms of % than the previous. Right now we are on a 4 year cycle, but I think that will increase to 6-8 years cycles. And if you take 250k as the top then to 1million that will only be 4x increase compared to the previous 10x. Smaller bubbles become more likely as the market becomes saturated. Long, long term, like decades in the future, bubbles will becomes obsolete and gains will be limited to a few % a year.
Well, that was a fun wall of text. Have fun trading everyone. I'm still just hodling and won't post that much anymore. Should be a fun two years! According to moonmath $200k is in the realm of possibilities. (for the next 2 years) $400k's possibility starting to become reality only after 2024. Actually, eighty something %% decline this time left me scratching my head as well. I fully expected that the decline would be less (60-70%) in the current cycle, yet we still went like a yo-yo. Actually, it was a few percentages less than prior, but only a few. 94% ($32 to $2) first cycle, 86% second cycle (1160 to $160), 84% this cycle (19870 to 3100). You can see that draw-dawn got slightly lower, not by much. Hence lies the problem. If we keep popping up lower gains (in %) in each cycle (320000% to 57900% to 12400% to, say, 2655% in the upcoming), but always declining in the % of gains, but keeping draw-dawn high at or above 80%, then, inevitably, and quite soon, we would have a reverse cycle where we increase less than subsequent drop and that would be a devastating picture. BTW, 2655% increase (keeping with lower increase trend) in the upcoming is projecting to $82K. TL;DR So far, each cycle the drop is above 80% and changing very slowly, but gains are declining more rapidly (in %) each cycle, suggesting that at some point relatively soon we would have a down cycle (in the next one or two). |
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I know we touched on the new US tax question recently but I hadn't considered this point of view which I tend to agree. Opinion: The IRS will cause significantly more adoption of bitcoin. Going forward, all taxpayers will be required to answer the question below:  This question will force all taxpayers to contemplate the existence of cryptocurrency as an asset class. This also forces accountants, attorneys, and financial advisors to educate themselves on the subject in order to represent and advise their clients. The question will inevitably nudge some of the tens of millions who are exposed to it, and who are curious, to explore this new asset class. Once curiosity sets in, it is guaranteed that Bitcoin’s gravity will draw many of these newcomers down its rabbit hole. This amounts to a guerrilla marketing campaign by the IRS, and it can only lead to increased interest in and adoption of bitcoin, IMO. I do not believe this is the intent of the question by any means, but I cannot see how the increased awareness will be a net negative. gamers would be like...."Dude, are gps virtual currency or not?". so much for the ZEC pump
Still 100% up from Dec 31, js Crazy stuff. |
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Why are we paying so much attention to a clearly peripheral issue? Everybody knows that @jbreher likes BSV. So what? He does not force anyone to buy it, just states his opinion (infrequently). I think that he is mistaken, but it is just an opinion. Some guys like pussy and some like something else, #nohomo. All this lambasting a fellow WO member is for naught and kind of sad to see. Reminds me of a conflict between bolsheviks and mensheviks or going even more "satirical/historical", Lilliputians and Blefuscudians. All Lilliputians should break their eggs on the small end first. |
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That is just absurd. Obviously we are only going to experience an 11,000% increase this time around peaking at $343,453. I agree he is a delusional fool...however, one does not have to believe in "Peter Pan", to secretly have the desire for Peter Pan and NeverLand to exist! So he can be as frigging 'delusional' as he wants to be, I sure hope he is right, on this fricking $400k BTC price after halving, however! (Ah daydreams...how I stay sane!)  (Also makes my odds much better to become Natalie Portman's Love Puppet!..you mean there is a chance?) Those mighty sells/withdrawals would be hard. Personally, i still don't exactly grasp how it could be done, even if btc comes from an exchange and everything is documented. Apart from anecdotes from one obvious person here, i never heard about the upper limit of wire/ACH from Coinbase (Pro or regular) and gemini (Gemini does not tell you what the limit is outright). Therefore, even if i wanted, i wouldn't know what limit to ask for. Obviously with these crazy numbers (300-400K/btc), withdrawal limits have to be very high in $$. I am afraid that it could become a bottleneck later on when millions of people start bombarding them with such requests. |
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I was staring at my DCA chart as I always do everyday  , I realized, since 2016, I doubled my BTC amount every year.  I can only double one more time that's if I go all in. Don't get caught up on unrealistic pie in the sky goals. Consider your prudence, and you don't need to double each year in order to be employing the correct tactics. In other words, if you start to prioritize meaningless goal posts, you will end up screwing up a system that you have built and figured out to work. In other words, tweaks to your system should be based on incremental changes rather than throwing darts at walls when you might not be as good of a shooter as you believe yourself to be, then you end up getting fucked up the ass because you accidentally (or should we say recklessly?) poked ur lil selfie in the eye ball.  I probably bought my last fucking dip a week ago. From now on unless there happens to be a huge ass percentage drop, I'll just keep throwing potatoes (DCA'ing) till it hits my target price. There is never a straight up, so maybe if you are employing "buy on dip," you are not getting as much BTC, but you still cannot really count on losing dip buying opportunities. Yeah, I understand that many of us here in WO thread have a kind of bullish, never to return to low prices theory, yet historically, it seems that those kinds of opportunities do still tend to come... Maybe we could analogize from 2016, and yeah after a certain point, it became really difficult to obtain sub $500 coins.. and surely similar dynamics might exist in 2020.. trying to get sub $10k coins... I understand the dilemma and the urge to front load, and I have no problem with the employment of some front loading based on those kinds of ideas. I did it myself. I front loaded a bit in the three digits, but I was still always worried about front loading too much and getting caught in some kind of pickle... Yeah, of course, I left some money on the table in 2015 and 2016, but I don't have any regrets because I really feel that I had front loaded as much as I had felt comfortable at that time, and I cannot go around kicking myself and say that I should have bought more - because buying more was just NOT prudent when I had already sufficiently thought about the situation and sufficiently frontloaded my BTC investment. There is only so much that you can do and there is only so much money that you can reasonably get a hold of without putting yourself too much at jeopardy if matters were to go sour.. and my lack of regret even goes to the fact that I could have pulled some money out of my 401k.... it was my money.. but I chose not to do it, and the 401k money performed way worse than BTC.. but I don't care because I had already considered both the UPs and DOWNs and I made my then choices about what was then prudent.. No regrets, here. front loading is so 2014-2015ish. It's difficult to imagine a serious frontloading at almost 9K (vs 200-500 back then). It is closed to most, but the fiat 1% now, soon to be 0.1%. That said, i believe that the next 5-6 mo is the last frontloading opportinity of the next few years. |
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Nice...had to check "codpiece". Well, I had to cash out an entire bitcoin yesterday for expenses and such. This is why it's going over 9k.
Because the universe rotates around me, and the universe enjoys fucking with me :-)
So moon time! Every time I sell one that is one bitcoin I will never see again. Blah!
First sell yourself on the streets or something, if the juices or completely gone there.... then start selling corns Anyone who earns an income in bitcoin will have to sell some bitcoin. That is risk management 101. Each person needs to maintain balance, and lightfoot has previously described that periodically he receives some income in BTC. well, some peeps here might want to indulge in some mining activity...it's not that difficult and makes income in BTC, lol. |
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A chance to buy cheaper with Bitmain coupons that are available in the Marketplace section (digital goods).
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Apparently there's 2.1 BTC hidden in this picture:  Source Don't forget about me whoever finds it  I saw ETH and XRP and eyes glazed over. fuck that shit. Dude, this is a puzzle (with imaginary Satoshi face) to get 2.1 BTC, who gives what words are there? |
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Another hit from PlanB! Very interesting. And answering one of the most common question: why Bitcoin is still at Vegeta level if it is going to be worth in the million in a few years? Efficient Market Hypothesis and Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model
Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model was published in March 2019 [1]. The model has been well received by bitcoiners and investors. Many analysts have verified the cointegrated S2F model and confirmed bitcoin price predictions [2][3][4].
The S2F model also received critique. The best steel man argument against the model comes from the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The argument states that the model is based on publicly available information (S2F, bitcoin's supply trajectory) and therefore the analysis and conclusion must be already priced in.
In this article I share my point of view on S2F model and EMH. I analyze arbitrage opportunities, risk & return model and derivatives markets.
Are you guys following him on twitter? I literally was checking his account a couple of min ago and it was not there yet. Interesting point about mispricing due to high perceived risk. Steel man argument is the opposite of strawman, but it is the first time I saw this expression. |
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Bimain Coupons, good toward purchasing bitmain miners are available (all up to 10% of your order, all expire on 1/31/ 23:59:59 GMT+8):
One $314 coupon selling for $45 ($269 savings)
One $175 selling for $25 ($150 savings)
One $140 selling for $20 ($120 savings)
All three coupons together-$80 (saving you up to $544)
Price is firm (payment ONLY in btc), please no low-ball offers.
Reason for sale-not planning to order more.
Here is one additional rule: you send btc first, I will send coupon to YOUR Bitmain account afterwards (after a few confirmations).
Exceptions only to senior members I already trust and/or had interactions with beforehand.
This is a self-moderated thread, so I might delete all irrelevant posts.
EDIT: all coupons sold
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I have a dream, that the next time we cross $9,000, it will be the last time we ever see Vegeta memes.
I like Vegeta memes. But I'm with you on this one. I want moon memes. I’m looking forward to when we break the ATH. The memes, excitement & joy here will be great to see. It’s going to be biblical. This thread will be part of bitcoin’s history. We’re like characters in the Bible, people will speak of our usernames in the distant future in such case, people should not change their usernames on a whim |
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I have a dream, that the next time we cross $9,000, it will be the last time we ever see Vegeta memes.
I'll drink to that! |
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@philipma1957, it seems that your experience was different.
In my case, they cancelled the order, returned the coupon (EDIT: allegedly, as I don't see it) and told me to put a new order in USD (NOT btc) IF i wanted my credit to be counted.
I guess, they make it up as they go.
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NO go.
I was patient, I pointed to thread.
Order cancelled (not re-opened, changed to cancelled from expired), coupon returned.
They have a very convoluted procedure instead of simply subtracting credit $$ automatically from order.
Basically, if you are trying to pay in btc, they claim NOT to be able to subtract credit fast enough.
I don't want to send wire.
I will try to put order in the cart, then ask to subtract credit.
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