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381  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A short tale of a world currency, and fees going UP and UP and UP on: November 23, 2013, 09:29:47 PM

A free market in competitive private currency issuers is what we are talking about here. Bitcoin makes that possible in a way that it never was before. This is not particularly analogous to nation states competing with each other because look what happened to gaddafi when he tried to create the gold dinar, that is very very far from a free market when you get blown to smithereens for making your currency something other than what america endorses.

If it's a free market, then why am I somehow "not allowed" to blow others to smithereens when they're trying to brutally compete against me? Smiley
382  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A short tale of a world currency, and fees going UP and UP and UP on: November 23, 2013, 09:06:09 PM
Suppose that we have ledger operator a b and c. You want to make a bitcoin transaction with your buddy and you are using operator a and your buddy is using operator b. You broadcast your intention to operator a and b and a and b communicate with each other and agree that everything looks good and then the transaction is complete. A and B store up a balance of payments for all transactions with each other, and once per day, who ever is liable on net clears his obligation to the other using the blockchain. Notice that C never had to download any information relating to this transaction. Thats only a 30% savings in total network load, but suppose we have 100 operators, than it becomes a 98% savings. Using this framework, cryptobanks can pop up on the dark nets. Governments can take some of them down, but they would end up playing a never ending game of whackamole. That is the sense in which it is censorship resistant, and the sense in which it is centralized in that each actor is maintaining his own ledger.

Isn't that basically the current system where countries (or economic regions) can independently inflate their national currencies without any transparency? Sure, debasement is visible after the fact, but the international trade -- which causes relative exchange rates to drift -- has already occurred. That could get messy with everyone trying to game the business cycles in a kind of Mexican stand-off*.


*edit: or is it a normal stand-off because of a "first mover" advantage?
383  Economy / Economics / Re: There is no such thing is "intrinsic value", only "usefulness value" on: November 23, 2013, 07:25:51 PM
I see your point, but it's a pretty big claim nonetheless. Some people believe in intrinsic value, so for them there is such a thing.

When I see gold, I see a metal that was costly to dig up and refine. I also have a rough idea of its monetary properties, not least of which: lots of other people think it has something called intrinsic value. Thus, on top of its niche uses in electronics and jewellery, it also becomes useful as money. I see "cost" and "intrinsic value" as interchangeable terms.
384  Other / Politics & Society / Re: assassination market -- legitimate tit-for-tat as per the N.A.P., or coercion? on: November 23, 2013, 01:52:28 PM
Will I get killed if I say the people organising this are lunatics!

Probably not, but the NSA are probably masturbating to this conversation a bit like in that South Park "Toilet Safety Administration" episode Grin
385  Economy / Economics / Re: Ideas for more efficient distribution of money? on: November 23, 2013, 01:15:46 PM
Quote
Read this to understand why I think plethora of unique brains are more valuable than a few very smart brains (when we are outside the 3% in the power-law):

http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.html

The math of the entropy applies even to phenomena which are not tangible, e.g. Shannon Entropy for information.

Cite for me anything written by Penrose or Gödel which disagrees. I actually incorporated Gödel's completeness theorem into my analysis.

Gödel's theorems are a kind of critique of the language of mathematics:

Quote from: wikipedia
The first incompleteness theorem states that no consistent system of axioms whose theorems can be listed by an "effective procedure" (e.g., a computer program, but it could be any sort of algorithm) is capable of proving all truths about the relations of the natural numbers (arithmetic). For any such system, there will always be statements about the natural numbers that are true, but that are unprovable within the system. The second incompleteness theorem, an extension of the first, shows that such a system cannot demonstrate its own consistency.

Therefore, any mathematically described "theory of everything" is going to face the above problem with the underlying maths. Try explaining the "hard problem of consciousness", or belief, or the 'delusion' of free will, or qualia, or just the mere existence of any observer... using the empirically observed laws of entropy. Circular reasoning.

Quote
Creativity is merely the congruence with diversity in dynamic time, i.e. matching the dynamic configurations of the system as opportunities for fitness of each unique mind.
No, that's an empirical interpretation of what creativity appears like, in hindsight no less.


You're still not giving any material to suggest that objective value judgements on the creativity of different brains is even plausible.
386  Other / Politics & Society / Re: assassination market -- legitimate tit-for-tat as per the N.A.P., or coercion? on: November 23, 2013, 12:35:55 AM
^
Lots of great responses -- it's very encouraging!
387  Economy / Economics / Re: Ideas for more efficient distribution of money? on: November 22, 2013, 09:14:58 PM
It is called the law of diminishing marginal utility that you refer to. Diminishing returns are about the decrease in the output of a production process... Cool

Sorry for nitpicking...   Wink

I stand corrected Wink
388  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Facebook account suspended for telling my cousin about Devtome on: November 22, 2013, 06:59:46 PM
The name sounds suspect. Maybe it used to be some dodgy website promoting illegal activities, like euthanasia. Get it, "dev (death) to me" ?

Or, more likely, just genuine censorship because Facebook are retards. Grin
389  Economy / Economics / Re: Ideas for more efficient distribution of money? on: November 22, 2013, 06:29:21 PM

Read this to understand why I think plethora of unique brains are more valuable than a few very smart brains (when we are outside the 3% in the power-law):

http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.html

I suggest reading some Roger Penrose and looking into Kurt Gödel, and also catch up on some of the atheism/god discussions in the politics forum while you're at it.

Quote
2nd Law of Thermo

All such irrational and unjustified fears are inconsistent with the trend of maximization of entropy guaranteed by the Second Law of Thermodynamics which governs our universe. Such fears include erroneous Malthusian apocalyptic predictions of overpopulation, man-made (anthropogenic) global warming, peak energy, and other resource scarcity delusions of the masses. Entropy is the level of independent possibilities, i.e. diversity. During the 1800s, the Luddites thought technology and mass production would replace all human work, because they couldn't foresee the new independent possibilities of knowledge work that employ us now.

It can be argued that the universe, within which the 2nd law of thermodynamics applies, is just a subset within our whole existence. Reasonable arguments can be put forward that we can operate beyond the rules of our physical reality, and that's what gives rise to things like free will and creativity.

Re: Algorithms=/=Entropy
Quote
However, the speed of the computing hardware and the sophistication of the software has no relevance because creativity can't be expressed in an algorithm. Every possible model of the brain will lack the fundamental cause of human creativity— every human brain is unique. Thus each of billions of brains is able to contemplate possibilities and scenarios differently enough so that it is more likely at least one brain will contemplate some unique idea that fits each set of possibilities at each point in time.

His reasoning for "a cause of creativity" is illogical and does not follow from his otherwise sensible intuition that an algorithm surely doesn't cause it.

For a start, the word creativity is self-explanatory: it refers to an act of creation. Nothing comes before creativity in order to somehow cause it, because then that would be the real creative source instead. He could argue that creativity is not real, just an illusion. However, that would just reaffirm what I said earlier: we act upon and alter our illusion of reality, and thus we operate outside of it.

His theorising further down is interesting, but still relies on the same causal premise.

For example, we could think of DNA like an extremely advanced, organic von Neumann universal constructor. A Turing-complete state machine that operates within the physical laws of its substrate: various chemical interactions and so on. It replicates, evolves, has error correction for self-repair. Then we skip a few steps and say that complex organisms evolved from this DNA and formed brains.

Then we make a big (MOAFU) assumption: brains and networks of brains seem creative and extremely complex, therefore it must be all that complexity and variation that causes creativity. No, it's a bit like that Russian joke where the world seems upside down. Stuff doesn't cause creativity. Creativity causes stuff. I would suggest that maybe it's an ongoing process of creativity that allows complexity to arise in the first place. It may seem ridiculous, but I would also speculate that creative choices might occur at all levels in nature, resulting in what appears, in hindsight, to be the second law of thermodynamics.
390  Economy / Economics / Re: Ideas for more efficient distribution of money? on: November 22, 2013, 03:17:18 PM
Your fundamental premise is flawed.

a) You're equating coin distribution with wealth distribution, and not even bothering to define wealth in real terms.

No I am equating it with transaction distribution (velocity), which is wealth generation (proportional to ~GDP) in the QTM.

b) You're looking at the numbers as a static system, not one with flows and velocities.

How so? I think you are the one is not looking at that.

First prove that large stakeholders who control, say, 5% of the money base, do indeed have 1000 times more usable 'mojo' compared to stakeholders with only 0.005%, and then we can talk.

I don't understand. Appears you are inferring a premise on me that I have not made. Perhaps I think the opposite of what you wrote, if I understand what you might be trying to say. Seems to me the 0.005% have 1000 times more usable 'mojo' than the 5%, because they comprise 1000 times more unique brains.

Ahh. I meant in the sense of diminishing returns. E.g.: one person with $1B vs one person with $1M. The first million can really kickstart someone's dream life, whether it's repayment of house or car debts, purchasing lots of items, funding a hobby and/or business, or travelling to exotic places. On average, each subsequent million has a drastically smaller effect on overall "quality of life" than the previous million.

Forgive me if I misunderstood your original complaint about the power law distribution. In a previous thread you basically alleged that a large stakeholder, Joe, would not be able to redeem his bitcoins without crashing the system. That's a closely related issue. If a large batch of bitcoins are dumped on the market because the owner wants to "cash out their wealth", each subsequent bitcoin they sell nets a smaller amount of goods.

If anything, it could be said that political power fills the gap left by the invisible wealth. One could argue that rational actors don't want to harm their own values, so they would only speculate and manipulate the masses in ways that seem beneficial. Whether that's always the case, I don't know.
391  Economy / Economics / Re: Ideas for more efficient distribution of money? on: November 22, 2013, 02:11:29 PM
Your fundamental premise is flawed.

a) You're equating coin distribution with wealth distribution, and not even bothering to define wealth in real terms.

b) You're looking at the numbers as a static system, not one with flows and velocities.

First prove that large stakeholders who control, say, 5% of the money base, do indeed have 1000 times more usable 'mojo' compared to stakeholders with only 0.005%, and then we can talk.
392  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Where is your logic?! on: November 22, 2013, 10:49:12 AM
If you've got some other currency that is more inflationary (value goes down instead of up), it makes sense to use that for spending so you're not holding too much of it.
393  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A short tale of a world currency, and fees going UP and UP and UP on: November 22, 2013, 03:03:09 AM
here is another story. transaction costs become too high, naturally, because distributed ledgers don't scale well. clever entrepreneurs come to the rescue. By building ontop of the existing infrastructure they leaver the advantages of bitcoin in order to create censorship resistant centralized ledger systems. to the end user consumer its virtually indistinguishable from bitcoin except that it has super low fees and instantaneous transactions. and everyone lives happily ever after, except for people who get cancer.

I'm shocked at your deus ex machina.
394  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / A short tale of a world currency, and fees going UP and UP and UP on: November 22, 2013, 02:45:19 AM
In a far, distant future, bitcoins are not only expensive, but also very expensive to transact. Over time, as the system evolved, things got tricky in the mining sector. Miners who tried to offer cheaper rates kept having their blocks 'orphaned' until they learned to comply with the club rules: do not swamp the blockchain with cheap transactions. No matter how these heroic, rebel miners tried to get around the problem, it just wasn't working. Cheap transactions -- big blocks. Expensive transactions -- small blocks. The group consensus was: small blocks are less costly in the data centres.

Meanwhile, various helpful investors saw some opportunities to tidy Bitcoin up a bit. Bitcoin, the clunky "digital gold" that it was, was just too bulky for the fast rough-and-ready infrastructure people wanted. So a whole new banking sector arose from the ashes of the old one. This new sector was of course very convenient and useful: each layer provided an extremely valuable service, such as lending out Bitcoin-backed credit, all for a tiny fee that was passed onto the customers. In turn, these customers also provided some extremely valuable services: accounts, ATMs, chip cards, and pleasant branches with helpful staff. The best part was the cost: extremely affordable! Only a few percent per year.

Others saw opportunities in the 'mining' sector. Spaces were limited for the actual mining of course, but figuring out the optimum fees and block sizes was a formidable task requiring an army of accountants and programmers. You see, any slight miscalculation could have catastrophic consequences in the wider economy downstream. For example: increase block size too quickly, fees drop, and a small revolution erupts as mushrooming non-bank lenders start competing with the old guard and drive them out of business. Scary stuff! In such complex, chaotic systems, it often seems that the best thing to do is just: never change anything, and then it will remain stable.
395  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "Assassination Market". Potential hostage crisis brewing. Need game theory on: November 20, 2013, 10:22:04 PM
This market can't work.



two problems:
-The first is obvious: the anonymous site owner can run with the money.
There's  no reason to suppose he will ever pay out anything.
Assuming he never ends up owing money to an assassin and he's 100% sure that his security hasn't been compromised. In the media articles the quotes made it seem like he was reckless and desperate, not cocky.

Quote
-The second problem: The suggested way of proving that you made the hit
is very naive.  Basically, to claim the bounty all you need to do is to submit a (hash of) the date
the hit will be done, and pay 0.1% of the bounty. Nothing prevents you from submitting say  365 claims for the biggest bounty,
and wait for someone else to do the hit.  If you believe the site is legit (e.g. will pay
out) you should do this to win 73.5% of the bounty if the hit is done within a year and if you submitted
the claim before the killer (I don't know what the site will do if two or more people claim
the same date; it doesn't say).

Edit: if there are multiple predictions, he claims he'll split the bounty between them.

Edit2: The bounies are obviously made-up.
Looking at the bounty address for Ben's  head,     13DF5tKZfq8X8hGdhDUySSPgD8iGsFv2WG,
first of all you see that all the donations made except the first one have 0.0005 fee,
whereas the default now is 0.0001. This already hints that they could have been made by the same
person. Further, if you take the first donation made with this 0.0005 fee, which was from this address
1CNd58gBE5Hyxj62kVr1BArhVwdemuYZ7H , then you follow the chain from the "change" address,
always following the biggest output (there are always two), in ~15 steps you arrive at the
3rd donation (2nd with 0.0005 fee) to the same bounty address, made from here 1FRFwBPtRmWs6mU4FZ3faQuLz9eyBKgkrk .
I didn't follow this further, because  to me the conclusion is already clear:
all or the vast majority of the transactions to this address were made by the same person - the
"assassination market" owner,
who is just a  scammer.

If he's serious about getting it working, he'll probably find a way. The problem I see is that he wants it to work. Even if he fails, there could easily be copycats once they see what's possible.
396  Other / Politics & Society / Re: assassination market -- legitimate tit-for-tat as per the N.A.P., or coercion? on: November 20, 2013, 09:35:14 PM
Early results seem much less controversial than I predicted.
397  Other / Politics & Society / assassination market -- legitimate tit-for-tat as per the N.A.P., or coercion? on: November 20, 2013, 03:45:57 PM
Until now it was just theory. Now there's an actual site running. Thoughts? Smiley
398  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: SERIOUSLY? Bitcoin Singapore 2013 - NOT What I Expected (Or Hoped For) on: November 20, 2013, 03:26:42 PM
Last week, I took a break from roasting coffee in the jungles of Bali for the Roast Station Project to fly into Singapore and attend the Bitcoin Conference.

As someone who has used / exploited technology to live where and how I want for most of my adult life - the arrival of bitcoin was the most promising piece in the "finding freedom" puzzle I have been working on solving. (Still trying to to test and it live every day of my life.)

With this is mind - I was looking forward to an exciting day with fellow free-thinkers, crypto-anarchists, futurists, PTers, libertarians and other related types.

  • People who would be discussing how bitcoin was going to make the world a freer place.
  • People who were interested in data privacy and operating off the grid.
  • People who develop bitcoin products and services that make trading goods easier between producers and consumers around the world.
  • Maybe even some people selling THINGS for bitcoin.

I was so excited - here was a chance to have a whole day with "my" kind of people.

But that's NOT what happened.


Instead, I ended up in a room with around 200 mostly suit-and-tie people who apparently were only interested in finding out how to "invest" in Bitcoin in order to make a profit from it in their chosen fiat currency.

That's right - just traditional central-bank-worshipping-fiat-addicted investors who could give a rats ass about what (in my mind) Bitcoin is REALLY about.

There's just so many parasitic middlemen controlling the financial system and trying to sap free energy from the real economy. That's the problem with it. If you look at the traditional banks in terms of what they do, it's really at about the same level as telcos. Yet even telecommunication companies have been rolling out a whole lot of new infrastructure because of the Internet and mobile phones. What new things has the banking sector been coming up with? Apart from usury and asset grabs? Very little. Just incremental, cosmetic changes in customer service -- nothing ground-breaking.

Quote
During the first 7 hours of the day - there was only ONE single presentation about what bitcoin could actually be USED for (BitTunes). Otherwise no mention of what is actually bought or sold with it, no mention of businesses accepting it as payment. Nothing like that at all. And the phrase "Silk Road" never came up once.

I sat through 7 hours straight of - "why you should invest in bitcoin and bitcoin (trading) startups, so you can make more fiat and how to get the regulators on your side".
Because most regular entrepreneurs aren't that interested in money. They are idea people, not greedy people.

Quote
In fact, it wasn't until the final two panel discussions before there was even a single mention of ANYTHING related to privacy, free-trade, free-markets and futurism. Many had left by then.

Fortunately, those last two panels were awesome - and made the rest of the day worthwhile.
I'm sure the timing was purely accidental Wink
399  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "Assassination Market". Potential hostage crisis brewing. Need game theory on: November 20, 2013, 01:04:29 PM
Updated OP:


This is how I see things potentially playing out. At first, nobody takes the threat seriously. Everyone who has followed Bitcoin has seen so many scams and would-be disasters that were supposed to destroy Bitcoin but failed, that we've become numb to it all.

Occasionally a few coins get deposited, and it's seen as black humour for the lulz. Who cares if it's probably a scam and the creators will disappear with the money? It's Bitcoin -- stuff like that happens all the time. It's a risk people take when trying to remain anonymous, and 2-party escrow is still in beta. Authorities probably could take down the website if they wanted to. IF.

Meanwhile, the funds slowly add up and eventually they reach a tipping point. Whether it's because of slow accumulation or rising exchange rate doesn't matter. Some big-name politician gets killed, and that's when the SHTF.

Suddenly, the news is 100 times worse than Silk Road ever was. Massive regulation ensues. Innocent Bitcoin enthusiasts, miners, early adopters, and developers get arrested. Masses of people who don't care about any alternative political systems like Laissez-faire, Anarchy, Anarcho-Capitalism, Libertarianism, Zeitgeist Movement, etc., they see this from the POV of "normal" people: murder caused by Bitcoin and therefore it must be stopped.

And who gains in all of this? Not some phantom government which is supposedly evil and coercive -- they're just taking bribes like all good Capitalists. It's the fucking dinosaur banking sector.
400  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: f*ck the bubble. Somebody reassure me about this press. Need game theory on: November 20, 2013, 11:33:24 AM

Fractional Reserve banking.
If all else fails, bad debts can be written off and deleted. But banks are greedy. As long as a bank can avoid doing that, it will. They want to have their cake (conjure up easy loans despite a lack of deposit funds) and eat it too (if a debt goes bad, keep the usury payments ticking along by repackaging the debt and selling it to someone else.

The FRB system has been gamed and Bitcoin is a much needed wake-up call.
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