My term deposit at bank is about to mature after 6 months. I'm getting like $1k for this shitty investment. And what is worse, the interest rates got halved. Next time, I'll be getting like $500 for the same investment at the same bank. I am making a big decision here:  Option 1: Keep collecting peanuts. Keep DCA'ing. Option 2: Buy the dip, Keep DCA'ing. (1-2 btc) Option 3: Nuke everything and become a 1 million club member while I still can. (all in) *Option 3 violates my investment rules. Violates it like fuck all gimme lambo. I had done option "3" once in my life when I was much younger. Lost everything in that fiat account, which I since rebuilt to personal ATH, but it took many years. That said, it depends on several parameters: 1. Your investment portfolio size vs your yearly income 2. Your age 3. How steady you job is (if there is a job). 4. family responsibilities, if any 5. last, but most important-the probability of the trade success (if it could be assigned) If investment portfolio is small in comparison with yearly income, I don't see why someone cannot invest a large %, providing that the job is steady and you have a good income. There is a formula (Klein criterion-see wiki) which describes the % of portfolio one should dedicate to a bet. The problem is-it involves assigning a probability to a trade success, which is almost always an impossible task. Example: on a trade with 60% success one should invest 20% of the portfolio; trade with 70% success, 40% of portfolio, etc, etc. Mind you, these %% are "real" numbers, not imaginary ones. Also, NO MARGIN. EDIT: Formula...Fraction of portfolio to invest (in decimals)=[2X(chance of trade success in decimals)]-1 Therefore, 0% to invest when 50:50 ( or lower) and 100% to invest when 100% chance of success. Everything else-in between. EDIT2 messed up the last name..it is Kelly, not Klein, kudos to Millionero for correction. |
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So apparently, CSWcoin is going to hardfork in the near future. Said hardfork includes the fantastic idea of basically stealing people's unclaimed BTC, which means, if you didn't claim your BSV, those coins will be "confiscated" by CSW-Ayre's mining operation (which I presume are the only people mining the thing). This also includes that satoshi's "1 million" coins will be stolen. According to raw calculations, they'll get $85million. I mean, it's not a lot, but still, this has to be a joke right? am I taking crazy pills? How is people unironically supporting such thing at this point?
I assume most here didn't even bother claiming the coins. I mean, it's such a pain claiming a forked coins, you have to do much for so little, but I don't appreciate CSW getting free money, but still, I may just don't bother.
If this is not the case, correct me if im wrong on the whole thing, but that is what I extracted from what I've read.
Can you link to highlighted, please? Apart from rumors, i haven' seen anything solid, as it would be very weird. |
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 via Imgflip Meme GeneratorI like your line of thinking about starting a global movement. I was having a conversation with a buddy recently and we got to talking about peoples jobs being automated away over time. It occurred to me and I made a prediction to him that the number one job field for women would be sex worker(stippers, whores, porn stars, cam models, happy ending massages, bikini baristas, breastaraunt waitresses, naked sushi girls, go go dancers, etc) in 20 years. Think about it.... Service industry jobs have already made tons of gains as automation has cut into other types of jobs. Men due to our larger brain size make the most money and spend the most money and the service we like most is typically sex. Porn has always been the most searched term on the web. Women are already spending more and more time on looking and acting slutty than ever before, so its just a matter of time before they all want to monetize their looks and the largest company in the world is one that figures out how to get a multi trillion dollar market cap valuation monetizing the sex worker industry. Brain size is a louzy param. Whale has brain size that is 5x human elephant has brain size that is 3X human. I doubt that these species are more intelligent. male/female brain size difference of about 10% roughly corresponds to the difference in body size/weight. That said, I also noticed the overall increase in "sluttiness" lately (including leggings, etc.), but thought that it is due to increased competition mostly attributed to social networks (Tinder, etc). |
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So, let's face it: Lambie was wrong this time too. No $5k no 4k or 3k. Not even $6k dammit! He's so proud of himself for "declaring baby bull market" but how many times since then he was wrong predicting bear moves? There has to be some reason a person predicts bear moves every now and then. The guy is smart, I admit. But to me he's just a smarter version of gembitz. Sorry Lambie fans.  I've only heard him tossing out the number $5k in the last day... did he do so previously? He just said it won't go to $3k. And I've got news for you: this is $6k. This is it. He's been right about calls he made 3-4 months or so ago, which is better than most can say. Everybody is a smarter version of gembitz. My comb is a smarter version of gembitz. Yeah I guess I'm a Lambie fan. Oh well, I'll have to learn to live with it. I guess that you had not noticed that he had been calling for a price correction ever since about early May when we crossed over $6k... So, yeah.. sooner or later he is likely to end up being correct, so that merely makes him entertaining, at best, rather than the soothsayer god-like creature that he would like to have doted upon his attention-whoring little noggen.  Id say 35 percent chance that was the end and its all up from here. 65 percent chance the B Boyz come out to play at least one more time imo. If chances are as you described, then Kelly criterion says: no new bet (yet). |
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TA is voodoo, it NEVER works reliably. Economics of the process is what actually works.
TA is based on probability, that is based on mathematics, 1s and 0s. The latter has been reliably tested for thousands of years. The former, for only a couple of hundred maybe. Economics is based on a load suits in a room deciding whey think is best to do with their money, at the detriment of anyone else. My faith in mathematics is inexplicably higher than any moronic human species based intelligence. Believe what you want, I know what I'll be putting my money on: 1s and 0s. TA has almost nothing to do with math, it is mostly interpretation of the prior data with Fibonacci numbers thrown in to give it a 'pseudo'-scientific feel. However, if it works for you due to some 'hidden' parameter that you don't even realize exist, so be it. Happy trading! |
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The Hash Ribbons indicator is currently signalling a buy. Closing the day at current price would be the first buy signal since January 11th 2019 at $3,632.  Sorry but had to post again, still can't get my head around this. Most indicators are telling me we're going down. Hash Ribbons is telling me the bottoms in on a long-term scale.  Why do I care about Hash so much? I don't, I care about an indicator that's given 9 signals in 9 years with 100% success rate of calculating post-bottoms in the market (or best accumulation prices). Therefore, if this signal is wrong, it would be part of the 10% unreliable signalling, meaning on a Daily time-frame at least, there is a 90% chance the bottom is in This signal might still work, but there is a simple technical explanation for hashing rate stagnation (or minuscule decline). The reason is that upon decline from $14K to $7K and simultaneous prior increase in hashing caused by the deployment of new generation miners (starting in about may-June), old trusty S9 miners become mostly unprofitable to run and there was A LOT of them, so it was a multi-month process of switching old gen off and new on. Large miners never do it in one swoop, it is a process. TL;DR It is was not switching hashing OFF, it was a replacement cycle. Not relevant. These signals have been back tested pre-ASIC. I'm sure that any TA based miner would be able to pin point the relevant cycles with releases of different models of miners that end up on the market, or others that drop out of the market for that matter, in relation to these capitulation & buy cycles. Me, I do not care for economics. Only reliable technical indicators. It's signalling a buy and this indicator hasn't been wrong yet, I won't be betting against it for that reason. TA is voodoo, it NEVER works reliably. Economics of the process is what actually works. BTW: in the hypothetical surrogate TA observation that temperature is lower in the winter than in the summer (in northern hemisphere) what is more important: the "TA" observation or the knowledge of orbital tilt and planet rotation around the star? |
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about an alt: people are finally waking up to a basic betrayal of trust... https://www.trustnodes.com/2019/12/27/the-mystery-of-12-million-ethYet so much remains unknown. Was there a contract? Between who? What were the terms? What were the conditions? Has this contract been breached?
By the letter of it, perhaps not, but in the court of public opinion it certainly has been breached, for that payment was based on the promise of a completed roadmap to Serenity, a promise implicitly or explicitly made by all of them.
They got so much, and instead of exercising their knowledge, even their talent, and perhaps more importantly instead of educating the new generation to pass on skills, they spoil themselves. what a clusterf--k, but with us pushing 70% in dominance, would not add much. The Hash Ribbons indicator is currently signalling a buy. Closing the day at current price would be the first buy signal since January 11th 2019 at $3,632. Sorry but had to post again, still can't get my head around this. Most indicators are telling me we're going down. Hash Ribbons is telling me the bottoms in on a long-term scale. Why do I care about Hash so much? I don't, I care about an indicator that's given 9 signals in 9 years with 100% success rate of calculating post-bottoms in the market (or best accumulation prices). Therefore, if this signal is wrong, it would be part of the 10% unreliable signalling, meaning on a Daily time-frame at least, there is a 90% chance the bottom is in This signal might still work, but there is a simple technical explanation for hashing rate stagnation (or minuscule decline). The reason is that upon decline from $14K to $7K and simultaneous prior increase in hashing caused by the deployment of new generation miners (starting in about may-June), old trusty S9 miners became mostly unprofitable to run and there was A LOT of them, so it was a multi-month process of switching old gen off and new on. Large miners never do it in one swoop, it is a process. TL;DR It is was not switching hashing OFF, it was a replacement cycle. |
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My reasoning is I am showing like 40k to 60k of equipment depreciation for the next 2 years for a business that has no income. The CPA says it is money lost and 'kosher'.
AFAIK, you can only show 2 out of 5 years in "loss". On a third year (after two consequent losses) you can only have a loss equal to earned income as business would be considered not "business", but "hobby". Ask your CPA if this is true, but this is what I gather. Re mimblewible-too new. It's GPU fun, mostly. No gains, but small losses with a few GPUs. I see no use for this token until a decade later if ever. |
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Both will miss Q2 deadline...or we are all f-ed.
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I see 7197 right now  ...and how is your current observation any different from someone else? LOL |
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I looked at the last 4-5 years on btc vs SP500 and it looks like they are getting more in-tune, plus btc swings vs SP500 are abating.
All data from Dec 31 prior year to Dec 31 next year:
2015-2016 SP500 +9.5%
2016-2017 SP500 +19.4%
2017-2018 SP500 -6.2%
2018-today SP500 +29%
vs
2015-2016 BTC +123.6%
2016-2017 BTC +1368.5%
2017-2018 BTC -73.6%
2018-today BTC +96%
It looks to me that we simply amplify (in the last 4-5 years) the SP500 move.
Judging by the prior statistics, after at least 20% move (yearly) in SP500, there is at least one more consequently positive SP500 year.
Prediction: we would roughly triple or quadruple SP500 gain in 2020.
7-10% gain in SP500 would result in about 30% gain in BTC, therefore the target for BTC next year (12/31/2020) is about 10K+/-1K (9k-11K range).
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Hey guys, I am a bit confused about sequencing of events.
two scenarios:
1. apply coupon, then ask to apply credit, then finalize order (in other word, even if order expire, they will still allow coupon)
OR
2. make order (without coupon), then ask to apply credit. Once credit is applied, use coupon.
Your help would be appreciated.
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Well, supply will be cut in half, and unless you also believe that demand will be cut in half at the exact same time, price will rise. It's really that simple.
Nope, sorry, I can't see it that way. If it were so, the chart would show a step change in price at the point of halving. Demand is to a large extent already discounting (anticipating) future events, because it is so tied up with speculation. The flows and changes are complex. That's the reason you often see an opposite reaction ( to that expected) when an anticipated price sensitive event happens. I don't disagree..but I expect a pretty good recession on the horizon. We can dicker on when..but with such a boom in stocks there will be IMHO a corresponding doom in a recession. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/19/out-economists-predict-us-recession-by-survey-finds/I myself have fixed the house, paid off all debts, etc, etc for such an event. If as the experts say now a recession (I expect a good 40% downturn. Keep in mind a recession is a 20% downturn. Anyway, again, experts say instead of like past recessions to take 7 years to come back they are talking 12 years plus. With this in mind, even if you are correct on the above, IMHO, adoption will surge, if not in USA and EU in countries that are struggling now using BTC etc. It is just a matter of what/when to kick adoption in high gear again, it does not have to have anything to do with speculation for this to happen. Anyway, my bet. (baring a 'black swan' event like Craig Wright being part of the Tulip Trust and actually getting keys..shudder..scared self.....) (joking guys..but still scary as fuck!)  On horizon, maybe, but how long to the horizon? A year, two, etc.? it could have happened this year, but a Niagara of money reversed it. I have no idea how long they can continue doing this. Perhaps, years, if not a decade. |
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Outspoken investor John Hussman claims that we are on the brink of stock market collapse. He argues that even a 50-65% market crash this cycle is “somewhat optimistic.” What would such a collapse mean for Bitcoin?
This month, the U.S. economy posted its longest period of expansion in its history. This is now officially the longest period its economy has gone without a recession. While there is room for celebration, such a fact should cause us to worry: is the current growth sustainable? According to some financial analysts, we could be in for a serious correction and, even worse, could see a complete wiping of almost all the gains we’ve had thus far.Source link hereIt looks like we are in a brink of another stock market collapse like in 2008!Back then during the stock market crash, it's where Satoshi Nakamoto has published his whitepaper about Bitcoin. Now here's the thing. If the stock market recession were about to repeat anytime soon, it means that there's a possibility about investors moving their funds from stocks to Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrencies. What do you think guys? Do you think it's possible that these investors are going to move into Bitcoin when stock market is about to crash again? Hmmmm.... He does NOT predict that market would go down. He predicts that market return in the next 10-12 years would be close to zero. It could be down-up or up, then down or flat or multiple down-ups as long as the sum is about zero. |
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I was watching Expanse for the first time. There are some cultural references in that show that might apply here as well. 1. It is unlikely that bitcoin would be accepted by a majority of populace. 2. Accordingly, we need to care more about bitcoin and bitcoiner's than to actively proselytize. 3. Instead, we should try to create our own culture and facilitate this process. Others can join on their own (where and when THEY are ready). 4. Maybe, we should even try to introduce new words/language to help with culture distinction. This is already happening, slowly. Obviously, this is a spontaneous process. Mind you, it looks like our culture is already under pressure: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6odnm_X0jI |
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Shitcoiner, nobody, attention-whore, segwit2x traitor and all-round ugly girl has opinions: 1/ there is a very real possibility the price of bitcoin does not go up after halving. for the first time, there is a robust derivatives (futures, options) market for bitcoin. most firms looking to speculate on bitcoin will trade a derivative, not the underlying. meh, but i agree that she is attention seeking. If halving is the dominant factor, then she would be proven wrong. What is "real possibility" anyway? IMHO any short term futures and options players would be taken down a notch, though. Shitcoiner, nobody, attention-whore, segwit2x traitor and all-round ugly girl has opinions: 1/ there is a very real possibility the price of bitcoin does not go up after halving. for the first time, there is a robust derivatives (futures, options) market for bitcoin. most firms looking to speculate on bitcoin will trade a derivative, not the underlying. ...probably bitter she can’t even afford 1 whole BTC so she spends her life trying to manipulate the minds of those who can. nah, she is somebody at Coinshares, a group with apparently $1bil investable assets. |
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I'm pretty confident that not even Bob is going to appreciate that level of gay in appearances.
Look at those faggots. Sacrebleu ! What horrible fashion sense. it's intentional, no doubt... almost dadaism II...making fun of showbiz double translation="showbiz inside out" maybe trying to be "too clever" an assigned wardrobe for the 100K party to scare party crashers away? lol |
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Sideways from the main topic, but did you ever consider switching from a miner production to a node production?
Just asking...since node demand is at least steady and maybe increasing due to LN.
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