Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fillippone]

Just made an absolute whale move that will shake the market.

0.0339BTC buy - Feel the tremor.

Edit - Hey guys, I had a thought for the new poll. WO poster of the year?
Could be fun?

Like the idea, lots of contestant too! I guess selecting the nominees will be as fun as voting and picking the right one!

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[Majormax]

I read your post as being exceedingly cautious, Majormax, and you already likely recognize that I continue to believe that there is a bit more underlying buying pressures than the amount that you seem to be willing to accept present.  Furthermore, supply is a pretty damned underlying force, whether you want to categorize it as "secondary" or not...  supply is a kind of hard pressure that inevitably ends up biting the bears in the ass.. especially any of them who under estimate its power, after they are manipulating down for much longer and much lower than can be contained and ends up resulting in a lot of irrational and uncontainable upwards FOMO buying... which is likely going to be another history that repeats itself... surely not guaranteed in any kind of way, but a seeming likely outcome... time and degree to be determined.   

You are quite right. I think it wise to be cautious.

I wouldn't categorise supply as a 'force', but demand acts more like the pressure. If you had to say which was more active and which more passive, how would you label them ?

Supply is more a variable which is acted upon by demand, and I suppose that is my point in saying that the effect of halving is not a given. Only when demand is absolutely assured and permanent does supply become the active variable.

[HI-TEC99]

Happy Christmas

[Raja_MBZ]

Merry Xmas y'all!



image credits

[Arriemoller]

I read your post as being exceedingly cautious, Majormax, and you already likely recognize that I continue to believe that there is a bit more underlying buying pressures than the amount that you seem to be willing to accept present.  Furthermore, supply is a pretty damned underlying force, whether you want to categorize it as "secondary" or not...  supply is a kind of hard pressure that inevitably ends up biting the bears in the ass.. especially any of them who under estimate its power, after they are manipulating down for much longer and much lower than can be contained and ends up resulting in a lot of irrational and uncontainable upwards FOMO buying... which is likely going to be another history that repeats itself... surely not guaranteed in any kind of way, but a seeming likely outcome... time and degree to be determined.   

You are quite right. I think it wise to be cautious.

I wouldn't categorise supply as a 'force', but demand acts more like the pressure. If you had to say which was more active and which more passive, how would you label them ?

Supply is more a variable which is acted upon by demand, and I suppose that is my point in saying that the effect of halving is not a given. Only when demand is absolutely assured and permanent does supply become the active variable.

Well, supply will be cut in half, and unless you also believe that demand will be cut in half at the exact same time, price will rise. It's really that simple.

[Biodom]

check this out...disappearing stars? That's new.

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/303769-astronomers-identify-100-stars-that-went-missing-over-time-for-unknown-reasons

bitcoin is unaffected...unless we are all living in some kind of virtual reality.

[Arriemoller]

Back home now from Xmas dinner and present giving. I must have been good cause I got a thousand dollar check for Christmas. And a book and a box of chocolates and a lot of cat food and a hot air fryer that was on sale and some other stuff.



No, it wasn't just me and Santa, the rest of the family is out of the picture for reasons.

I hope you also got some good stuff from underneath the Christmas tree, and I wish you all a Very Merry Christmas.

[Majormax]

Well, supply will be cut in half, and unless you also believe that demand will be cut in half at the exact same time, price will rise. It's really that simple.

Nope, sorry, I can't see it that way. If it were so, the chart would show a step change in price at the point of halving. Demand is to a large extent already discounting (anticipating) future events, because it is so tied up with speculation. The flows and changes are complex. That's the reason you often see an opposite reaction ( to that expected) when an anticipated price sensitive event happens.

edit : Merry Christmas !!

[Searing]

Well, supply will be cut in half, and unless you also believe that demand will be cut in half at the exact same time, price will rise. It's really that simple.

Nope, sorry, I can't see it that way. If it were so, the chart would show a step change in price at the point of halving. Demand is to a large extent already discounting (anticipating) future events, because it is so tied up with speculation. The flows and changes are complex. That's the reason you often see an opposite reaction ( to that expected) when an anticipated price sensitive event happens.

I don't disagree..but I expect a pretty good recession on the horizon. We can dicker on when..but with such a boom in stocks there will be IMHO a corresponding doom in a recession.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/19/out-economists-predict-us-recession-by-survey-finds/

I myself have fixed the house, paid off all debts, etc, etc for such an event. If as the experts say now a recession (I expect a good 40% downturn. Keep in mind a recession is a 20%

downturn. Anyway, again, experts say instead of like past recessions to take 7 years to come back they are talking 12 years plus.

With this in mind, even if you are correct on the above, IMHO, adoption will surge, if not in USA and EU in countries that are struggling now using BTC etc.

It is just a matter of what/when to kick adoption in high gear again, it does not have to have anything to do with speculation for this to happen.

Anyway, my bet. (baring a 'black swan' event like Craig Wright being part of the Tulip Trust and actually getting keys..shudder..scared self.....) (joking guys..but still scary as fuck!)

[Arriemoller]

Well, supply will be cut in half, and unless you also believe that demand will be cut in half at the exact same time, price will rise. It's really that simple.

Nope, sorry, I can't see it that way. If it were so, the chart would show a step change in price at the point of halving. Demand is to a large extent already discounting (anticipating) future events, because it is so tied up with speculation. The flows and changes are complex. That's the reason you often see an opposite reaction ( to that expected) when an anticipated price sensitive event happens.

edit : Merry Christmas !!

Well, that's econ 101, no matter how you see it. No one ever said that the price would go up the second the halving occurs, that's not how the economy works, there will be other factors in work as well, but they have no long term effect.

[Biodom]

Well, supply will be cut in half, and unless you also believe that demand will be cut in half at the exact same time, price will rise. It's really that simple.

Nope, sorry, I can't see it that way. If it were so, the chart would show a step change in price at the point of halving. Demand is to a large extent already discounting (anticipating) future events, because it is so tied up with speculation. The flows and changes are complex. That's the reason you often see an opposite reaction ( to that expected) when an anticipated price sensitive event happens.

I don't disagree..but I expect a pretty good recession on the horizon. We can dicker on when..but with such a boom in stocks there will be IMHO a corresponding doom in a recession.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/19/out-economists-predict-us-recession-by-survey-finds/

I myself have fixed the house, paid off all debts, etc, etc for such an event. If as the experts say now a recession (I expect a good 40% downturn. Keep in mind a recession is a 20%

downturn. Anyway, again, experts say instead of like past recessions to take 7 years to come back they are talking 12 years plus.

With this in mind, even if you are correct on the above, IMHO, adoption will surge, if not in USA and EU in countries that are struggling now using BTC etc.

It is just a matter of what/when to kick adoption in high gear again, it does not have to have anything to do with speculation for this to happen.

Anyway, my bet. (baring a 'black swan' event like Craig Wright being part of the Tulip Trust and actually getting keys..shudder..scared self.....) (joking guys..but still scary as fuck!)

On horizon, maybe, but how long to the horizon? A year, two, etc.? it could have happened this year, but a Niagara of money reversed it.
I have no idea how long they can continue doing this. Perhaps, years, if not a decade.

[HI-TEC99]

...a 'black swan' event like Craig Wright being part of the Tulip Trust and actually getting keys..

[Raja_MBZ]

(baring a 'black swan' event like Craig Wright being part of the Tulip Trust and actually getting keys..shudder..scared self.....) (joking guys..but still scary as fuck!)

The sh!ttiest line of the year just when the year was about to finish.

[whiteboy420]

She is right at what she is posting latter. But the first post you quoted is really silly. Bitcoin price is so unstable that will be way different next week not just a year from now. The point she is right about is that future trading makes bitcoin more stable. So growths and declines will be less sharp. Both ways will be more stable not just the way up. And that is good, money need to be as stable as can be.

The first serious derivative salvo arrived just at the death of the last bubble and since then it's been a steady decline into poo soup.

She's right to raise the possibility. That's unquestionably where most of the 'institutional investors' will prefer to go, but everything flies out the window if there's proper a bubble on or the sniff of one.

We need all this new guff to be present for another 2-3 complete cycles before its effects can be properly analysed. Until then it's just groping in the dark.

As posters have said, nobody can claim to know for sure, and that includes the most bullish cheerleaders....

So, there is indeed a possibility that BTC does not rise due to the next halving. There have only been 2 halvings so far, way too little for a certain judgment.  Price is always dependent on demand first and foremost... supply is important, but it is secondary.

The next bubble, if and when it happens , will have to be a function of a very large amount of fresh capital entering the market. The numbers required are much larger now than in previous bull phases.

Cost of production also plays a major part... Cutting production (per block) in half, while cost of production (per block) remains the same, could make mining unprofitable, unless the price rises.

Edit: Rephrased last sentence.

2020 lead up to halvening will be the most pathetic hopium cope by folks that cant into economics but somehow think the supply/demand discourse magic is an apodictic certainty.

Meanwhile corn will continue dooming

[gentlemand]

The sh!ttiest line of the year just when the year was about to finish.

Less than a week to go until HE GETS THE KEYS.

I retreated into a bunker at the start of the week and am now living entirely on nutrient gel like in the Andromeda Strain. I also killed everyone I know to save them from ruin. And everyone I came across on my way to the bunker. They'll thank me later.

Maybe much later.

[HI-TEC99]

The sh!ttiest line of the year just when the year was about to finish.

Less than a week to go until HE GETS THE KEYS.

I retreated into a bunker at the start of the week and am now living entirely on nutrient gel like in the Andromeda Strain. I also killed everyone I know to save them from ruin. And everyone I came across on my way to the bunker. They'll thank me later.

Maybe much later.

There's nothing to worry about, the bullshit detector's on maximum.

[DireWolfM14]

Shitcoiner, nobody, attention-whore, segwit2x traitor and all-round ugly girl has opinions:

1/ there is a very real possibility the price of bitcoin does not go up after halving. for the first time, there is a robust derivatives (futures, options) market for bitcoin. most firms looking to speculate on bitcoin will trade a derivative, not the underlying.

I don't get it, why is this a bad thing?  Aren't derivatives commonly set up for volatile assets?  If institutional investors focus on derivative markets is that bad for bitcoin?

[Icygreen]

I was watching Expanse for the first time.
There are some cultural references in that show that might apply here as well.

1. It is unlikely that bitcoin would be accepted by a majority of populace.

2. Accordingly, we need to care more about bitcoin and bitcoiner's than to actively proselytize.

3. Instead, we should try to create our own culture and facilitate this process. Others can join on their own (where and when THEY are ready).

4. Maybe, we should even try to introduce new words/language to help with culture distinction. This is already happening, slowly. Obviously, this is a spontaneous process.

Mind you, it looks like our culture is already under pressure:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6odnm_X0jI

Indeed youtube "crypto" is under attack. I've just noticed that the channel Ivan on Tech has been taken down. Over 211K followers with a daily podcast. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrYmtJBtLdtm2ov84ulV-yg
A very talented interviewer, shame.
Youtube is state owned it would seem, Guess we'll have to flush them down the same hole with FB. Censorship resistant platforms on the way!

[dragonvslinux]

[jojo69]

Well, supply will be cut in half, and unless you also believe that demand will be cut in half at the exact same time, price will rise. It's really that simple.

I certainly hope so.  The only thing that worries me is if the hashrate falls so precipitously that we have dangerous concentrations of hardware sitting on the sidelines.