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3821  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 05, 2015, 01:57:41 AM
Anti-gravity drive?

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/evaluating-nasas-futuristic-em-drive/

Wonder how long until cold fusion is a reality as well??
http://egooutpeters.blogspot.ro/2015/04/russia-preparing-for-iccf-195-and.html
3822  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [ANN] METAmarket - Trustless Federated Marketplaces on: May 05, 2015, 01:02:57 AM
Sounds promising ... suggest you also consider PageSigner (tlsnotary) integration https://tlsnotary.org/

Thanks for your feedback!
Could you explain what advantage could be gained by integrating with TLSNotary?

Decentralised on-line marketplace for bitcoin <-> currency trading.
3823  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2015-05-03 UBS Bank has partnered with Coinstructors on: May 04, 2015, 09:18:16 AM
They are trying to pick everyone's brains because they are so far behind the curve on crypto.

The questions they are asking do not even make sense demonstrating they have not even the context figured out.

They will use their legacy money and power to try and bully or buy technical knowledge (hence new power). Trust no one as there are lots of pretenders, imposters and outright frauds masquerading as "big bank" IT specialists ... be careful out there guys.
3824  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2015, 08:36:54 AM
Tim Swanson thinks transactions cost 25 BTC divided by the number of transactions in a block. That's a complete misunderstanding of not just what the block reward does but of what Bitcoin even is. He has gathered some interesting data, but his analysis is unlikely to be of much use as he has no fundamental understanding of Bitcoin in the first place.

Tim Swanson (who understands bitcoin's economy much better than most bitcoin gurus) is looking at the miners as an entity that performs a service to the "bitcoin system" (validating and securing transactions) in return for a payment (the block rewards and transaction fees).

Right now, that entity gets 25 BTC (~6000 USD) for each validated block, and the average block contains 750 transactions.  So the miners are being paid ~8 USD for each transaction that they process, on average.

In percentage terms, the transactions in a block move about 280'000 USD, on average (excluding presumed "return change" outputs); so the miners' revenue is about 2% of the money that they move.

There is not much room for misunderstanding there.  Right now,  the bitcoin network is way too expensive for the service that it renders.  If the price were to rise to 2'400 $/BTC before the next halving, and the volume numbers doubled until then (which is what they barely did over the last 2 years), the miners would be paid ~40 dollars per transaction , or 10% of the transaction amount, on the average.

As you all know, those 8 bucks (or 40 bucks) come entirely from the pockets of new investors -- the people who are buying bitcoins today to increase their holdings.  For the price to increase to 2'400 $/BTC over the next year, there would have to be a 10x increase in the money brought in by those investors.  I hope that everybody here is aware of that.

The money earned by the miners will never get back to the system; therefore, the only hope that those new investors have of recovering their money is that there will be enough new investors' money coming in tomorrow to pay for tomorrow's mining and to buy those bitcoins that they are buying today, hpefully with some premium. 

Thus, at current prices and rewards, the bitcoin protocol is creating every day another million dollars of naked debt: money which the bitcoin holders have put into the system, and expect to get back from it --- but which has been given to the miners, and will not be returned by them.

By pushing the cost of the network to those new investors, the protocol allows the users and entrepreneurs to entertain the illusion that transactions have almost zero cost, and therefore are cheaper than international bank payments and remittances.  This whacky "business model" cannot go on indefinitely.



Thanks!
I wish you were wrong...
Within the big picture as described above, do you believe is still possible to have another future hype (fueled maybe by the interested actors and human psychology) or rather a continuous series of crashes/resistance?

Please keep up the good work!

It is not good work at all, it is elaborate trolling dressed up analysis. Stolfi always uses a small set of deviously well-chosen assumptions to ensure he gets the negative results he is looking for.

Monetary benefits can not be analysed simply by considering a payments network. The broader society-wide, intangible, economic benefits from good, sound money are manifest and difficult to quantify. What we do know is that rampant money printing, like from central bank fiat money, can be devastatingly destructive to whole nations, especially poor people and those not well-connected to government troughs, like university professors.

Ask Stofli to analyse the downsides experienced by multiple devaluations of the Brazilian money? Especially for the victims of those fiat money scams perpetrated by the governments he champions at every turn. He is an unashamed cheerleader for the financial destruction and poverty bought about by all the worst economic theories entrapping hundreds of millions. He is an enemy of freedom of the most devious, disgusting kind.
3825  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2015, 05:48:42 AM
Tim Swanson (who understands bitcoin's economy much better than most bitcoin gurus) is looking at the miners as an entity that performs a service to the "bitcoin system" (validating and securing transactions) in return for a payment (the block rewards and transaction fees).
That's where you and Tim are mistaken prof. You are completely ignoring the main function of the block reward, which is to distribute the tokens.

That may be one intended function of the block reward; but now it is effectively the main payment that miners get for their work.  (It is far from ideal for both purposes, though.  The 25 BTC reward would be adequate if the price was in the single-digit range; which would be the case, if Satoshi had not been brainwashed by his libertarian friends with that Austrian Economics fiction about deflationary money...)

yes satoshi was brainwashed and you are a genius ... ffs, pull your head out of your own ...

the sooner the brazilian taxpayer sues the smugness off your face and gets their wasted money back for your idleness the better for all.
3826  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 04, 2015, 12:31:00 AM
Bitcoin is a meta-layer for settlement systems, let's keep the politically-driven social sciences, like "economics", out of it.
That sounds like VC doublespeak.

Far from it. Though I expect each can approach it on their chosen level and interpret it through familiar lens filters, however limiting and distorted that may prove to be.
3827  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 03, 2015, 11:36:18 PM
Bitcoin is a meta-layer for settlement systems, let's keep the politically-driven social sciences, like "economics", out of it
3828  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [ANN] METAmarket - Trustless Federated Marketplaces on: May 03, 2015, 03:57:53 AM
Sounds promising ... suggest you also consider PageSigner (tlsnotary) integration https://tlsnotary.org/
3829  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 02, 2015, 07:05:37 AM
So no asks yet?

What I don't get is why zero asks? ... i mean if they don't want to sell at least put a stupid $1200/btc crazy ask up. no?

Something doesn't smell quite right here.
3830  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 02, 2015, 07:03:33 AM
Bitcoin price has gone down even more than gold in the last 12 months.

Risk of holding bitcoin is high as it has no fundamental value with many competitions.

... gold went down yesterday too, so there.  Roll Eyes

who opened this board to pre-schoolers?
3831  Economy / Economics / Re: [CHART] Bitcoin Inflation vs. Time on: May 02, 2015, 12:41:16 AM
Annualised inflation rate for bitcoin is now consistently less than 10%.

E.g, yesterday was 9.2% annualised.
3832  Economy / Economics / Re: China's currency is worth double that of USD. WTF? How is this possible? on: May 01, 2015, 02:30:24 AM
Per https://i.imgur.com/rhArHSS.jpg

I do not understand how China's currency can be almost twice the value of USD? USD GDP is almost double that of China, PLUS USD is the global reserve currency, so there's even more of it out there than there otherwise would be.

Please, someone explain this to me!?

They printed the hell out of it over the last 6 years to keep the global economy afloat and you know how everyone is saying the chinese currency is massively over-valued? Guess what, it is. China is gonna have a huge bust.
3833  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: denationalisation of money on: May 01, 2015, 01:21:46 AM
Quote
"I don't believe we shall ever have a good money again before
we take the thing out of the hands of government,
that is, we can't take them violently out of the hands of government,
all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something
that they can't stop."
- F. A. Hayek

Quote gold @ 19:20
What really blows my mind about this quote is the date, it's from 1984! Talk about thinking ahead of his time, wow! Back then, such a concept as trustless money must have seemed to most a childish impossibility. But not to Hayek, he knew better.

Actually, he is reiterating concepts he had already made concrete in the mid-70's, see my signature link, check out "Resources".

https://mises.org/library/free-market-monetary-system

https://mises.org/library/denationalisation-money-argument-refined
3834  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 01, 2015, 12:28:02 AM
ATTENTION BITCOIN PURISTS!!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-30/first-blythe-masters-now-goldman-investing-bitcoin
Quote
The bad news is that any hopes and aspirations of making a libertarian statement against the status quo by transacting with a monetary medium that now has the full backing and endorsement not only of the biggest commercial banks, but the Fed itself, is now history.
Oh noes!! Bitcoin doomed!
* seriously though, one could get almost 500 Monero per bitcoin right now, if one was so inclined...


ZH idiots had the one chance in their lifetimes to front-run wall st. ... and they squandered it on running around with their tinfoil-hatted heads chopped off and hating on a tech. they clearly didn't understand, nor deserve to as it turned out.
3835  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2015, 09:28:00 PM
double-digit tarmi is currently unavailable, being bent over the bitcoin barrel with his bankster buddies.
3836  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: April 30, 2015, 08:09:14 PM
....

Yeah, that's what some of them just might do, actually. But I guess there's a reason why they invested in GBTC shares, rather than buying the coins directly: They like the type of investment vehicle, with all its disadvantages and advantages. And that's the very reason they may just stay in that vehicle!

but in the meantime they have learned how to use a Trezor or a Ledger hardware wallet and now feel comfortable being totally in control of their own money. They probably are cluey enough and incentivised to do so ...
3837  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2015, 09:04:35 AM
Roll call:

JPMorgan - "investigating blockchain internally" (blythe destroyer-of-markets masters start-up)
UBS - setting up crypto fintech team
Morgan Stanley - suspected in the market (don't ask)
Goldman - investing directly in Circle

Barclays - Huh
Deutsche - Huh
3838  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2015, 08:46:48 AM
if the vampire squid is in then the regulators will be dancing the bitcoin tune ... their tentacles infest every level of gubmint, especially financial regs, gonna get weird with the squid in the game.
3839  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: April 30, 2015, 01:55:39 AM
There's an update. What Barry meant was that GBTC could start trading today or tomorrow, not "should."

https://twitter.com/InsideBitcoins/status/593566295658000384

I'm going to trust what the accredited investor guy in this thread says when he estimates 5+ business days, not Barry shooting his mouth off. That means we should expect trading on Monday or later.

Yes, on some monday gbtc will trade .... recloses the one open eye.
3840  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: April 30, 2015, 01:34:13 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYhEDxFwFRU
Interview with Hayek on Denationalisation of Money (some gems in there about Keynes too.)
Quote
"I don't believe we shall ever have a good money again before
we take the thing out of the hands of government,
that is, we can't take them violently out of the hands of government,
all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something
that they can't stop."

Reposted here since directly relevant.
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