GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer

[Alley]

I honestly just don't think any of the shareholders are in a hurry to sell there shares.  Few have probly even opened the email to read how to transfer there shares.  Its not like bitcoin is there only investment taking up there time.

[Chef Ramsay]

I honestly just don't think any of the shareholders are in a hurry to sell there shares.  Few have probly even opened the email to read how to transfer there shares.  Its not like bitcoin is there only investment taking up there time.

They're likely high net worth investors and like you say, probably have a small or modest investment that they're just letting ride for the time being.

[marcus_of_augustus]

....

Yeah, that's what some of them just might do, actually. But I guess there's a reason why they invested in GBTC shares, rather than buying the coins directly: They like the type of investment vehicle, with all its disadvantages and advantages. And that's the very reason they may just stay in that vehicle!

but in the meantime they have learned how to use a Trezor or a Ledger hardware wallet and now feel comfortable being totally in control of their own money. They probably are cluey enough and incentivised to do so ...

[BitAddict]

Plus they can sell at +50% over market price. Who would not want to take that kind of instant profit and moving to real bitcoins? I'm sure at least some of them already learned how to properly store their bitcoins.

Who doesn't want +50% free instant money  

[jehst]

Plus they can sell at +50% over market price. Who would not want to take that kind of instant profit and moving to real bitcoins? I'm sure at least some of them already learned how to properly store their bitcoins.

Who doesn't want +50% free instant money  

Rich people don't need risk-free 50% gains on their BTC, man. They're in it long-term.

[oblox]

Plus they can sell at +50% over market price. Who would not want to take that kind of instant profit and moving to real bitcoins? I'm sure at least some of them already learned how to properly store their bitcoins.

Who doesn't want +50% free instant money 

Rich people don't need risk-free 50% gains on their BTC, man. They're in it long-term.

Stupidest thing I've read in a while... rich or poor, if you have the opportunity to pocket a risk-free gain of that magnitude, you would. It would be as simple as selling your shares and at the same time buying BTC off the exchanges pocketing the difference until the arb-op is gone.

[jehst]

Plus they can sell at +50% over market price. Who would not want to take that kind of instant profit and moving to real bitcoins? I'm sure at least some of them already learned how to properly store their bitcoins.

Who doesn't want +50% free instant money  

Rich people don't need risk-free 50% gains on their BTC, man. They're in it long-term.

Stupidest thing I've read in a while... rich or poor, if you have the opportunity to pocket a risk-free gain of that magnitude, you would. It would be as simple as selling your shares and at the same time buying BTC off the exchanges pocketing the difference until the arb-op is gone.

It was sarcasm.

[chriswilmer]

Plus they can sell at +50% over market price. Who would not want to take that kind of instant profit and moving to real bitcoins? I'm sure at least some of them already learned how to properly store their bitcoins.

Who doesn't want +50% free instant money 

Rich people don't need risk-free 50% gains on their BTC, man. They're in it long-term.

Stupidest thing I've read in a while... rich or poor, if you have the opportunity to pocket a risk-free gain of that magnitude, you would. It would be as simple as selling your shares and at the same time buying BTC off the exchanges pocketing the difference until the arb-op is gone.

It's even simpler than that. They can sell GBTC shares and then just buy more BIT shares at the current NAV price. No need to touch real bitcoins (if that's what they're trying to avoid). Remember, all GBTC holders are accredited investors already, so they can buy BIT shares whenever they want.

[jzcjca00]

I guess many people holding shares there may not be willing to sell at current spot prices, because they mostly (if not all) bought at higher prices.

If that was the way they made investment decisions, then they would probably never have become accredited investors in the first place.

As a rule, poor people tend to make investment decisions based on a comparison of the current price versus the price at some point in the past, the date when they bought in.  If the price has gone down since they bought something, they tend to hold and wait for the price to go back up.  If it does finally start going up, they tend to sell, and feel happy if they managed to break even.

Most rich people do the exact opposite.  They make investment decisions based on what they predict the price will do in the future.  If an investment has done poorly, and they see no reason to believe that it is likely to turn around, they tend to "trim the dogs."  But when an investment starts rising, if they believe it will continue to rise, they will hold.

As a result, poor people tend to hold bad investments and sell good ones, while rich do the exact opposite, which explains why they are rich. 

So the question is not whether they are up or down, but whether they still believe the potential upside is greater than the potential downside.

[Biodom]

I guess many people holding shares there may not be willing to sell at current spot prices, because they mostly (if not all) bought at higher prices.

If that was the way they made investment decisions, then they would probably never have become accredited investors in the first place.

As a rule, poor people tend to make investment decisions based on a comparison of the current price versus the price at some point in the past, the date when they bought in.  If the price has gone down since they bought something, they tend to hold and wait for the price to go back up.  If it does finally start going up, they tend to sell, and feel happy if they managed to break even.

Most rich people do the exact opposite.  They make investment decisions based on what they predict the price will do in the future.  If an investment has done poorly, and they see no reason to believe that it is likely to turn around, they tend to "trim the dogs."  But when an investment starts rising, if they believe it will continue to rise, they will hold.

As a result, poor people tend to hold bad investments and sell good ones, while rich do the exact opposite, which explains why they are rich.  

So the question is not whether they are up or down, but whether they still believe the potential upside is greater than the potential downside.

how about when investment going up, then going down or going down, then going up? this happens all the time.
Based on this logic, all Apple investors in 1990-1996 should have sold, only to witness a tremendous run to 750 bil valuation in the next 18-19 years.
Most of biotechs start their life as absolute dogs: check out BIIB and PCYC (this one was $0.6 six years ago, sold in 2015 for >$250)

The first rule of Investment Club is that there are NO rules (that stand for a long time).

[jehst]

If you trimmed the bitcoin dog in 2011 after the protracted bear market and forgot about bitcoin, you missed out on 2013 or got pulled back in at high prices.

 If you kept holding after buying at 600+ in 2013-2014 because you think bitcoin has good long-term potential, you have massive losses now.

I agree with the previous poster. There are no rules.

[Chef Ramsay]

Come on fellas, you know you're bullshitting at this point. Do the right thing by stating the obvious and helping this movement move more decent. I and others have seen it all, so now is the time to let us have it.

[mmortal03]

They could sell on OTC and buy again directly from Secondmarket as accredited investors.  Only thing they would lose is the ability to sell on OTC for another year.  Even that is not so bad, since presumably Secondmarket will unsuspend redemptions at some point.

My understanding was that new shares couldn't be sold for a year, however once a share is initially sold (after 12 months), it can then be traded freely.

[Alley]

New statement from Barry.

“Everyone wants to know when they can start trading — this is the Bitcoin Investment Trust, symbol GBTC. There were many, many steps along the way to be a publicly-traded vehicle, and I’m very proud of my team and all of the lawyers that got it done. But, we’re done. So essentially on Friday last week we sent out instructions to all the shareholders who have held for twelve months, and [explained] how to deposit shares into the brokerage accounts. That process — if you act fast, if your broker doesn’t sit on it — it can be 24 hours. So, we have no reason to believe we won’t start seeing trading — I don’t know if it’ll happen today — but it could happen tomorrow, but obviously we don’t have any control over it.”

[Cconvert2G36]

New statement from Barry.

“Everyone wants to know when they can start trading — this is the Bitcoin Investment Trust, symbol GBTC. There were many, many steps along the way to be a publicly-traded vehicle, and I’m very proud of my team and all of the lawyers that got it done. But, we’re done. So essentially on Friday last week we sent out instructions to all the shareholders who have held for twelve months, and [explained] how to deposit shares into the brokerage accounts. That process — if you act fast, if your broker doesn’t sit on it — it can be 24 hours. So, we have no reason to believe we won’t start seeing trading — I don’t know if it’ll happen today — but it could happen tomorrow, but obviously we don’t have any control over it.”

He better be on the phone personally pleading with them after Tuesday. Someone at least needs to try to munch that Maxim bid by surprise.

[marcus_of_augustus]

So no asks yet?

What I don't get is why zero asks? ... i mean if they don't want to sell at least put a stupid $1200/btc crazy ask up. no?

Something doesn't smell quite right here.

[gotmilk_]

Barry should place some asks alone just to make first trades happen. I'm sure he can do that.

[Kupsi]

They could sell on OTC and buy again directly from Secondmarket as accredited investors.  Only thing they would lose is the ability to sell on OTC for another year.  Even that is not so bad, since presumably Secondmarket will unsuspend redemptions at some point.

My understanding was that new shares couldn't be sold for a year, however once a share is initially sold (after 12 months), it can then be traded freely.

New shares can be sold right away, but only to accredited investors. One year old shares can be bought by everyone.

[jehst]

Barry should place some asks alone just to make first trades happen. I'm sure he can do that.

His shares are likely on their way to a broker now.

[Kupsi]

10.2.2015... 1,388,600 shares (http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/profile)
31.3.2015... 1,389,900 shares (http://grayscale.co/bitcoin-investment-trust/)

They are adding new shares. Also it looks like grayscale.co page is updated daily (price and other info).

30.4.2015... 1,394,600 shares (http://grayscale.co/bitcoin-investment-trust/)