(I should probably post this in Service Discussion as well, but since those who speculate are also those who make the heaviest use of charts and other data platforms, it seemed right to post here first.)

Alright, it's official now: in the past few days, mtgox volume (in USD) has fallen below 50%, 2.8M USD vs. >1.7M USD, past 24 h (source: bitcoincharts market overview).

As a result, many of our tools to observe the market, clarkmoody first and foremost, are simply not appropriate anymore to really see what's going on.

Other sites, like bitcoincharts, already allow you to look at the data of other exchanges, but the problem is that you can only look at individual exchanges like that, while ideally you would also be able to look at an aggregate of various/all exchanges.

What's your take on it? Agreement, or: doesn't matter, saw charts.

I'm not claiming to have full technical knowledge of Ripple (but neither do I have that level of knowledge of Bitcoin), but I do know enough about it to believe that the arguments in defense of it all seemed to ignore one basic problem many bitcoin followers have: it's centralized, and there is no indication that this will ever change.

Rampion's post is an excellent summary of why I don't trust, and don't feel like supporting Ripple (I agree with everything except the last paragraph about the founders "cashing out". They will never do such a thing, as it would instaneously destroy their wealth in the process).

If you feel that anyone who's critical of Ripple is just (consciously or not) trying to defend his own get-rich stake in Bitcoin, then I guess I can't really argue any further.

sorry for the following lazy, cliched response to your post, but:

+1

Seriously? We are still doing this silly Google Trends thing?

Alright, if that's how we play it:




Quick, sell every last Euro you own!!!

+1 (as an easy fix)

a better, but also more complicated solution would be one that takes into account (1) changes in the graph (i.e. if nearly no change, don't post) and (2) number of human posts in the thread since last bot post (i.e. don't spam the thread)... probably too much to ask for to program this, especially (2), but one can dream:)

Voted 'nothing' a.k.a. status quo.

Le Happy Merchant made a good point in the Wall observer thread about how human posts and discussion are almost always preferable over bot posts, and I agree with that in principle, but I also think hitting the 'ignore' button is easy enough *especially* when considering that a substantial number of people actually like chartbuddy's posts.

I meant "100 btc in a single order". Look at the graph, or the order history: market price jumped from 124.18 to 121.70, after a ~100 btc trade. Don't tell me that's usual?

What just happened there? The order book isn't that thin that such a jump should happen for a 100 btc trade. Mtgox order matching failure, or am I missing something?

Dear bulls

Not to rain on your parade or poop onto your party, but:

The real breakthrough we have to wait for before declaring motherfucking UPTIME is 125. You know that, right?

120 is great and all, and it means the Dwolla news have been digested and SHAT OUT AGAIN (what's with the feces today?), but it's not yet a confirmation that we're back in the infamous mid-January trend.

Just wanted to point that out.

Now carry on with the party

I've said it in another thread, I'll say it again: I really appreciate your posts. Initially I suspected you're posting with a bit of a bearish agenda, but I was wrong: you let evidence guide your analysis, not wishful thinking.

btw, I'm not saying you're not bearish anymore, I suspect you still are, mid-term at least, but I respect your opinion a whole lot more than that of others because you genuinely seem to be interested in predicting shit, not in publishing post-hoc reasons for your trading decisions like most of us shlubs are :P

Candidate translation, original to Simple English: "many different things can become reasons for bitcoins growth, because bitcoin is growing very fast."

Please rate translation.

Thanks. This really needed to be said.

Coinseeker switches between outright trolling (e.g. the "only US matters for bitcoin" comments), and semi-serious discussion (for example his response to your post where he admits you have a point). Unfortunately, the majority of his posts in the last few days fall into the first category :/

Coinseeker, you went from 'usually interesting to read' to 'ubertroll' in less than 48 hours. That must be a new record.

Okay. Here's a - comparably - positive observation.

The 4 hour charts don't properly show it, but take note for a second that tonight's low was at about 105 USD, and therefore still above the previous "convergence low" [1] on May 7th, which was at 102 USD.

Which is arguably a good sign: the (admittedly) bad news didn't rock the price as hard as the "natural" correction of an overbought state a week earlier.

I'm not ruling out we will test 110 again in the coming days, maybe even 100, but I'm feeling a bit relieved that the market at the moment seems *unsure* how to take in the news, as opposed to the market being *certain* that it is a crippling blow to btc as a whole, in which case we would have seen sub-100 prices immediately.


[1] I believe the post-bubble development can be grouped into the following 3 phases: (1) immediate correction, down to the 60-ish values, ending on April 16th (the phase actually unfolded in 2 steps), (2) sucker's rally and its rejection, ending on May 3rd below 100 (actually in 3 steps), (3) converging trends phase (until now), with the correction downtrend and the long-term uptrend cancelling each other out, leading to relative stability. Well, "stability" until yesterday.

Didn't really check the price/news since yesterday noon, only saw it dropped sharply at some point. Now I come back to... this. Not pretty at all.

Then again, some of you ladies seem to get a bit panicky under stress.

"SELL NOW before the DHS/CIA/Gestapo gets you!"

"Double digits, tomorrow morning!!!"

"There's sand in my vagina, how do I get it out... nevermind, just SELL SELL SELL"

I mean, I didn't expect anything else of clowns like 4key, but Coinseeker? what the fuck, ? I mean, no objection to you going short. No objection to you posting about it, once or twice. But reading through the last two pages, judging by the overall tone of panic (not just by you, not my intention to single you out), one could think the price went back to single digits this night.

Moderation, folks, in both directions. Don't lose your shit when price goes up, but don't lose it either when it goes down :/

If by "soapbox" you mean me wanting to come here to call you out on your sloppy methodology, then yes, that's exactly what I want.

Nice. That means you read a bit more than 50% of my post.

On a related note: What happened? You used to write always entertaining, usually insightful, occasionally bearish posts. Now they're always bearish, and about the rest... I don't know. Get back to the old shape, I suggest.

Yeah, I expected nothing less than that as a response from you. True intelligence always shines through :)

Alright, I'll bite.

I've been posting along those lines for a few times in the Wall Observer thread, so here's the barebone argument only:

Based on my order book calculations (bid and ask totals, recent changes, and order book price composition), as well as money flow and momentum indicators of the past 2 weeks, and the fact that since the beginning of May no data points for any of the hypothesized downtrends exist anymore (while the mid-January uptrend is still possible, even if unlikely), I conclude the following:

a) We are still in a consolidation phase. Movement in the coming week will be slow (barring world-changing news of course).

b) Whether the correction is finished or not is too difficult to determine, and I would suggest not to waste time on trying to do so. Predicting the price movement of the coming week(s) is difficult enough, and sufficient knowledge for most speculators to act upon.

c) I see a short-to-medium uptrend as the slightly more likely scenario than a further downward movement, for the reasons outlined above (money entering the order book), and the fact that according to the growth trend that brought us into the 100+ range, we're still *slightly* over target (the mid-January trend has us at around 100 now, so we're 17 above target right now), which means sideways trading for now works in favor of this trend.

As for my own falsifying conditions:

A sharp price decline below 100 within the coming week or two will invalidate my points made above. Falling to a new low will obviously be extremely strong evidence that the correction continues with full strength. I am not entirely ruling out that over the course of the coming week money will leave the market and prices might decline, and a sub-100 scenario could unfold, but I fully expect signs for this drop to manifest in the order book and money flow indicators first.

It's possible. Only have to beat a 1 in 8.7 * 10^60 chance. Not that unlikely.