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3841  Economy / Economics / Re: China Busts a $3 Billion Underground Bank as It Tightens Its Grip on Money on: November 24, 2017, 07:42:58 PM
I don`t think that the US government or FED has the goal to keep thrillions of US dollars outside the USA,this would be stupid.

....

Yes, that would appear to be the goal of the US gov and the Fed. Thanks for summarizing it perfectly.

The united states has the highest corporate taxes in the world which encourages the wealthy to invest in every country other than the USA.

There's a counter intuitive principle fundamental to income taxes. Sometimes, tax revenues can be increased with tax cuts. Unfairly high tax rates encourage tax evasion and the use of tax shelters. Cutting the corporate tax rate has potential to increase tax revenues as more wealthy parties would bring their money inside the united states to invest in its economy.

America's high corporate taxes keep money outside its borders and discourage investment. The polar opposite to china's low corporate tax rates and policies designed to keep money inside its borders from leaving.
3842  Economy / Economics / Re: Could massive use of Electricity be the end or new high for Bitcoin on: November 24, 2017, 06:01:53 AM
Sindikat made a few excellent points above ^.

Due to a high number of residential solar panels being installed on homes, some regions like california generate an extreme surplus of electricity which they pay neighboring states to accept onto their own grids. It is known that some bitcoin mining plants in china are powered by hydro electric power plants, which is a renewable source of energy. Russia has proposed bitcoin mining plants powered by nuclear reactors. To an extent the energy debate may not be as critical as some make it out to be due to the supply of electricity greatly exceeding demand in many respects.

Moore's law dictates ASICs and GPUs will utilize increasingly lower quantities of electricity as lithographic silicon fabrication processes adopt smaller nanometer scales. While mining difficulty will inevitably rise, so too will the energy efficiency of future generations of GPU/ASIC.

Quantity of electricity may not be the central issue. Energy efficiency and waste could come to the forefront of the discussion in the future. There could be a point made about Elon Musk replacing 15% efficient internal combustion engines with plug power that can be generated at near to 30% efficiencies by large power plants. The amount of waste in terms of emissions may be yet another talking point.

In software engineering there's a school of thought which says code optimisation is a waste of time. Programmers put much faith in the concept of hardware computation increasing at a fast enough pace to keep bloat at bay. It is possible that a similar argument could be made with crypto. Even if the consumption of electricity can be measured and quantified, growth in energy sectors could easily outpace demand. Part of this could be attributed to decentralized energy production and climate change awareness which incentivize people to install solar panels on their roofs or windmills in their yards.
3843  Economy / Economics / China Busts a $3 Billion Underground Bank as It Tightens Its Grip on Money on: November 24, 2017, 05:43:25 AM
Quote
BEIJING — The money came from all over China — its wealthy southern and eastern coasts as well as the arid northwest — as thousands of people scrambled to circumvent the country’s strict controls on wealth.

In the end, more than 10,000 people had used an underground bank to effectively funnel $3 billion out of the country before the authorities put a stop to it, Xinhua, China’s state-run news agency, reported on Thursday.

The discovery of the underground bank in Shaoguan, in the southern province of Guangdong, demonstrates the furtive lengths that Chinese citizens go to in order to skirt government limits and get more of their money out of the country.

The sums involved are enormous, large enough to not only affect China’s economy but resonate around the world. Two years ago, a loss of confidence in China’s outlook led many of its people to send their money abroad — a flow that helped drive a $1 trillion drop in China’s stash of surplus foreign money. The exodus was enough to darken the country’s long-held image as a major global economic growth engine.

China appears to have since stemmed the surge of money abroad, thanks to an improved economic outlook and tough new efforts to keep the money at home. But the underground bank bust announced Thursday showed the lengths that the authorities will pursue to enforce limits on money leaving the country.

The Chinese police have detained seven people believed to be involved in the bank, according to the Thursday reports. The authorities discovered 148 “illegal and fraudulent accounts” from the bank, involving more than 10,000 people, the Xinhua report said.

Underground banks are illegal but common in China. According to China’s Ministry of Public Security, underground banks handled more than $137 billion in transactions last year. There are also lawful ways of moving princely sums out of China without surpassing government limits: directing money to casinos in Macau — the only Chinese territory where gambling is legal — as well as using credit cards to buy luxury goods abroad and purchasing insurance policies that can be cashed out overseas.

China imposes strict limits on how much money can leave the country. Those limits help the government keep a firm hand on the value of its currency, and the Chinese authorities credit the limits with helping keep its financial system steady during emergencies like the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the global crisis that began in 2008.

The government sets a $50,000 limit on the money Chinese citizens can move out of the country in a year, though businesses and those making strategic investments can send out much more.

But growing numbers of people began dodging the limits two years ago, when a stock market crash, a surprise government-led currency devaluation and prospects of slowing economic growth led many to seek safer havens for their money.

President Xi Jinping has made it a top priority to keep more money in China. His government has shut down platforms that trade cryptocurrencies; announced controls on outbound investment in property, entertainment and soccer; and imposed curbs on payments overseas.

Much of China’s underground banking activity is centered in cities that border Hong Kong and Macau, special administrative regions of China that are governed by their own laws.

In Shaoguan, the police were alerted to a suspicious bank account that was opened in 2011 in the city by a Mr. Zhong, a resident from the southern city of Zhuhai that borders Macau, according to Guangzhou Daily, an official newspaper. It did not further identify Mr. Zhong. After almost no activity for years, there were 121 transactions involving $15 million in 2016, prompting the authorities to look more closely at who was involved.

Ultimately, the Xinhua report said, the authorities discovered that the people running the underground bank had illegally bought and stole the identity documents of more than 200 people to open the fake accounts that underpinned the enterprise. News reports did not disclose detailed information about how the underground bank worked.

The Shaoguan government and the police did not respond to requests for comment.

The trail appeared to lead to Macau, according to the news reports. The suspicious bank account that prompted the investigation was opened specifically for a gambler in Macau called Mr. Peng to transfer money, Xinhua said. “Several members of the criminal gang” then converted the renminbi into Hong Kong dollars for Mr. Peng, according to the report. Hong Kong has its own currency, which tracks the value of the United States dollar.

The Xinhua report did not offer details about Mr. Peng.

Macau is under pressure to keep a tight rein on capital outflows. Most recently, it installed automated teller machines with facial recognition software to monitor transactions for people using Chinese bank cards, according to Macau Daily Times.

The Xinhua report acknowledged that underground banks are “seductive,” especially for people who struggle to get financing, but warned that “the people will suffer tremendous loss” if the banks abscond or cheat their clients.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/23/business/china-underground-bank-3-billion.html

....

Bolded above: looks like we have a motive behind china shutting down crypto exchanges earlier this year.

Its interesting to note that while china strives to keep money inside its borders, nations like the united states utilize measures such as high corporate taxes, seemingly with an end goal of keeping money outside its borders. There's also an interesting backstory to chinese and american domestic policy whereby american politicians often propose legislation identical to measures adopted by china. In the past american politicians have proposed a giant censorship firewall and internet kill switch. Two policies china is known for.

Over the long run, this could imply america's leaders will propose similar measures intended to keep cash inside the countries borders. A proposed move from paper money to digital transactions could represent a prelude to this.
3844  Economy / Economics / Re: Slumps To Rallies on: November 23, 2017, 11:47:21 PM
I'm not certain if the term slump applies to bitcoin price declines.

The term slump usually describes a decrease in performance. When bitcoin's price declines it often implies someone sold a lot of btc due to their expectation that the price wouldn't go much higher. Its not so much a slump as it is early adopters cashing out or deciding to shutdown their crypto business in favor of using the earned capital to start other ventures.

On some level perhaps people recognize this. And so the decline of crypto isn't a cause for major concern with price movements not being caused by any fundamental metric which could be measured and found to be diminishing.

The term rally could also be misleading for similar reasons. Just some food for thought.
3845  Economy / Economics / Re: What is happening in USA? on: November 23, 2017, 11:35:48 PM
A decent proportion of USD value was tied up in the dollar being accepted as a reserve currency and oil being traded in "petrodollars". With recent announcements made by russia, china and other nations to drop the petrodollar and trade oil in other currencies, the natural reaction is for the dollar's value to fade under assorted "de dollarization" policies being implemented across the world. 

Another concern is the issuing nation, the united states being $20 trillion in debt. A good portion of the dollar's value is reflected in the economic strength and prosperity of the country which issues it. Politicians seem powerless to cease and desist on attempting to tax and spend their way out of deficit and debt which bodes ill for the dollar and finances which rely upon it.

The european union also being trillions in debt is a concern. If either the USA or the EU were to default, it would have negative economic and financial consequences for possibly every nation on earth. We saw this during the economic crisis of 2008.
3846  Economy / Economics / Re: Algorithms nothing else on: November 23, 2017, 11:13:11 PM
There are studies which claim 50% of current jobs are vulnerable to automation. The potential for mechanizing jobs is debatable as are the implications. There are many indirect points of interest such as the end result of replacing humans who pay taxes with robots who do not.

Artificial intelligence is a hot topic at the moment with considerable myths and hysteria surrounding it. There are also political angles which could be taken into account in terms of military drones and robotic vehicles centralizing military power under a single authority. The survival of republics may depend upon decentralized power in the form of congress, senate and different branches of legislative power. Drones have a net effect of centralizing this power in a way which could empower totalitarianism.

It is possible that artificial intelligence is an incorrect term to describe the recent uptick in automated software. Many of the AI utilized in games like chess or go are brute force machines which attempt to calculate every possible scenario. There is a question as to whether a machine which brute forces every possible combination can be considered "intelligent".

Many of the gains in the AI industry have come from moore's law and the number of transistors etched in a silicon chip roughly doubling every 24 months. There is a considerable question mark as to whether a machine which utilizes brute force logic could ever fulfill the job of a police officer, fireman or role which requires considerably more critical thought and computational power than a simple game of chess.
3847  Economy / Economics / Re: Paypal CEO admitted war against cash on: November 23, 2017, 10:55:34 PM
Quote
PayPal CEO Dan Schulman on the war against cash

"I think what we came to the realization of is that the war is really against cash and against waste," Schulman said, speaking from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "There's tremendous leakage in the system."

There may be a few gaping plot holes in that storyline. When people refer to "tremendous leakage" in cash that is wasteful, they're attempting to pinpoint inefficiencies. Its a systemic debate. Can paper cash function in a more efficient manner than electronic currency? What evidence is there for either side of the discussion?

The problem with the "cash is inefficient and wasteful" perspective is, most of those inefficiencies might be traced back to human origins rather than systemic ones intrinsic to the electronic payment versus paper fiat paradigm. Also many of the "inefficiencies" of cash can be attributable to wealth redistribution and profiteering campaigns.

There are certainly many stones being left unturned on this topic.
3848  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UFC FN 121: Werdum vs. Tybura Info and Betting Thread on: November 23, 2017, 08:55:49 PM
There's a UFC event in shanghai china tomorrow. Very late friday/early saturday depending on your timezone. I think it starts 3 am EST saturday. Posting here as these threads don't appear to see much action.



Background info on the event from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fight_Night:_Bisping_vs._Gastelum

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After previously contesting three events in Macau (a Special administrative region of China) since 2012, the event will mark the first that the promotion will hold on Mainland China.[1]

A middleweight bout between former UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva and The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen middleweight winner Kelvin Gastelum was expected to serve as the main event.[2]  The pairing was previously scheduled to meet in June 2017 at UFC 212. However, Gastelum was pulled from the bout after he tested positive for Carboxy-Tetrahydrocannabinol (Carboxy-THC) which is a metabolite of marijuana or hashish above the 180 ng/mL allowance by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) standard.[3] In turn, despite having two months to secure an opponent, Silva and promotion officials confirmed on May 11 that he would not compete at that event.[4][5]

On November 10, it was announced that Silva had failed an out of competition drug test stemming from a sample collected on October 26 and as a result had been pulled from the card.[6] A day later, former middleweight champion and The Ultimate Fighter 3 light heavyweight winner Michael Bisping was secured as a replacement opponent for Gastelum.[7] Bisping had fought 21 days prior to this event at UFC 217, where he lost the championship to former two-time UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St-Pierre.[8] Bisping was serving a medical suspension issued by NYSAC, but as China isn't under the purview of the Association of Boxing Commissions, he was allowed to fight.[9]

On November 18, it was announced that James Mulheron had failed an out-of-competition drug test stemming from sampled collected on November 10 and as a result he was pulled from the card.[10] His scheduled opponent, Cyril Asker, remains on the card and is expected to face promotional newcomer Yaozong Hu.[11]

A pair of promotional newcomers, Liu Pingyuan and Bharat Khandare were expected to face each other at the event. However, Pingyuan pulled out in November and was replaced by fellow newcomer Yadong Song.[12]

I don't have many notes on this event.

-If I remember right, Bobby Nash may have deliberately kicked his last opponent in the groin to give himself time to rest. I hope he can fight clean this time without fouls.

-Tim Kennedy beat Michael Bisping. Kelvin Gastelum beat Tim Kennedy. If Bisping can beat Kelvin he can avenge his loss to Kennedy to some degree.

-Muslim Salikhov may be the only dagestani fighting in the UFC who doesn't have a comprehensive wrestling background. I'm not 100% certain on this but it is a possibility.
3849  Economy / Economics / Re: No more sanctions for Russia? Switzerland wants to invest into Crimean cryptomar on: November 22, 2017, 11:11:46 PM
Last I heard crimea is a warzone. The most obvious explanation is this is intended as a form of political ploy or wartime tactic. Maybe they reached a deadlock and instead of violence banks in switzerland hope to gain a financial or economic foothold in crimea they can utilize to further their own goals. I hate to venture into conspiracy theories, here.

I'm not certain how much of crimea's financial or banking infrastructure is destroyed. Its possible there's a simple business opportunity to provide crimeans with a means of reliable financial transactions due to destruction of infrastructure. Circumstances there could be similar to africa in that regard.

AFAIK this shouldn't have any effect on sanctions. In the past western foreign policy often had an end goal of dividing russia and china. Sanctions against russia have done the opposite bringing russia and china closer together, making them stronger allies. Economic sanctions are also considered an act of war in some cases. Example: japan bombing pearl harbor during world war 2 was partially provoked by the USA passing economic sanctions against japan.
3850  Economy / Economics / Re: How do you budget your money in a day on: November 22, 2017, 10:52:21 PM
I think rent and food usually take up the largest chunk of a person's paycheck. Rent costs usually can't be changed so food is the first thing most people focus on. Value meals at fast food restaurants are what many would resort to. There are recent health trends which claim fasting 16-18+ hours a day can have a healing/regenerative effect on a person's body. Fasting can also help reduce cost per day spent on food and have health benefits as well. There are a lot of little things a person could do to save money on food. Buying a 5 gallon jug and filling it with potable water at supremarkets rather than buying starbucks coffee or something else. I think they charge around 50 cents for more than a gallon of drinking water which is much cheaper than 50 cents for 12 fluid ounces of what you'd get in a can of soda.

Cost savings extend to entertainment. Doing things for fun that don't require money to be spent. I never took any of this seriously but I did save near to $10,000 inside 2-3 years, once. Just by being a boring person, not going out all the time, with my main source of entertainment being hanging out at a skatepark trying to learn new tricks on a skateboard.
3851  Economy / Economics / Re: Cryptocurrency as the Imperial End-game on: November 22, 2017, 10:24:21 PM
I think most of us agree a big crash is coming?

The only questions may be: when? And: what the planned end game is for a post crash world?   Huh

There are conspiracy theorists who believe a deliberate crash is intended to setup a one world government. After the next massive bust cycle, bankers could step in and reorganize. They control the wealth inside the global network of tax shelters. That gives them leverage over many world leaders who will agree to anything they propose.

I would like to hear alternate theories. Its an interesting topic. But not much is being said about it.
3852  Economy / Economics / The Richest 1% Now Own More Than 50% of the World’s Wealth on: November 22, 2017, 09:44:47 PM
Quote
The richest 1% now owns more than half of all the world’s household wealth, according to analysts at Credit Suisse. And they say inequality is only going to get worse over the coming years, with millennials having a particularly tough time.

The Swiss bank released its latest Global Wealth Report on Tuesday, together with a statement that contained the immortal phrase, “The outlook for the millionaire segment is more optimistic than for the bottom of the wealth pyramid.”

The research showed that there are increasing numbers of dollar millionaires. This is partly because the strength of the euro has created 620,000 more of them in Germany, France, Italy and Spain (conversely, depreciating currencies in the U.K. and Japan have seen 34,000 and over 300,000 people in those countries respectively lose the status).

But almost half of the new dollar millionaires are in the U.S. itself. “So far, the Trump Presidency has seen businesses flourish and employment grow, though the ongoing supportive role played by the Federal Reserve has undoubtedly played a part here as well, and wealth inequality remains a prominent issue,” said Michael O’Sullivan, CIO for International Wealth Management at Credit Suisse.

Credit Suisse expects to see a 22% rise in dollar millionaires by 2022, from 36 million to 44 million. The problem is, the numbers of adults who have less than $10,000 are expected to shrink by only 4%.

The bank’s researchers see wealth inequality as largely being a result of the financial crisis— it rose across the world between 2007 and 2016, because financial assets were growing faster than non-financial assets. The top 1% started the millennium owning 45.5% of all wealth, and now they have 50.1%.

As for what’s been happening since mid-2016, Credit Suisse described a mixed picture. Non-financial wealth has been increasing “substantially,” but inequality is still rising.

“Despite higher mean wealth per adult, median wealth fell again this year in Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Our projections for 2022 suggest more pessimistic scenarios for the immediate years ahead,” the researchers said.

“Looking at the bottom of the wealth distribution, 3.5 billion people—corresponding to 70% of all adults in the world—own less than $10,000. Those with low wealth tend to be disproportionately found among the younger age groups, who have had little chance to accumulate assets, but we find that millennials face particularly challenging circumstances compared to other generations,” they wrote.

Essentially, millennials are more likely to be unemployed or earning less, priced out of the housing market, and unable to get a pension. Baby boomers have most of the wealth and the housing, so “millennials are doing less well than their parents at the same age.”

Millennials may be better educated than earlier generations, but Credit Suisse’s researchers said they expected only a “minority of high achievers and those in high-demand sectors such as technology or finance to effectively overcome the ‘millennial disadvantage.'”

http://fortune.com/2017/11/14/credit-suisse-millionaires-millennials-inequality/

....

Here we have an interesting piece on wealth and wage inequality.

Historically wealth distribution was defined by something known as the 20/80 rule. It was a loose rule of thumb that roughly 20% of the population owned 80% of the wealth. Today that divide has increased to a point where 1% of the population owns 50% of the wealth. This implies that while productivity and technology are increasing the profits are increasingly being distributed disproportionately across the population.

This is an interesting point for discussion as some of the things capitalism or socialism are blamed for might be traced back to wealth and wage inequality. Its also an interesting point as real inflation could be growing faster than wages which could produce catastrophic results over the long term.

Many markets and industries across global economies could suffer as wages stagnate. This could have a negative impact across real estate and many other areas which could expect inevitable downturns leading to recession/depression.

An attempt at greater equality in terms of wealth and wages has the potential to cure many issues facing society.

Reading the article there could be a lot of misinformation and lies in it also.
3853  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin - New form of Budget for poor countries on: November 22, 2017, 03:12:36 AM
I think corporations and big business make profits on a unit basis in terms of net quantity of products sold. They prefer currencies to be devalued to increase the unit of products they can export. While cheaper currency benefit big business they carry a malus of reducing the buying power of consumers.

Adopting bitcoin which could appreciate in value, rather than devalue the way the corporate sector favors, would represent a polar opposite to the economic policies most nations adopt in this day and age.
3854  Economy / Economics / Re: Chicago Future CME will be good? (maybe bad) on: November 22, 2017, 12:48:01 AM
At first I thought crypto futures wouldn't have much of an impact due to crypto's 24 hour trading days.

If pump and dumpers add CME leverage to their coordinated price manipulation, there could be an uptick in crypto futures activity. It might be possible to see an uptick in CME trading volume before pump and dumps. In that way crypto futures might be a good indicator for future price movements, if not as influential as futures in equities.

I remember people trying to short apple and amazon. Crypto futures may not have a negative downtrend one might expect found with short selling. We've seen coordinated pump and dumping. There haven't been many cases of coordinated short selling. Its not as profitable and may carry more risk which makes it less attractive as a strategy.
3855  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin is probably a short-term bubble guys. on: November 22, 2017, 12:37:31 AM
That being said, we are not in 2014 and the price is relatively high at a 129 billions $ total valuation of BTC in circulation. Remember when it was in the 200s for a while ? It was a valuation of a few billions, it went up 35 fold.

I remember a time when 1 bitcoin was worth around $12. I earned 0.01 btc through faucets. A user on this forum named Otoh gave me 0.09 so that I could have 0.1 btc. (I still intend to pay him back for that someday, btw) Having seen bitcoin at $10-$12, it would be very easy to assume bitcoin was a bubble @ $200.

There's no doubt that bitcoin was $200 not long ago. The question as to whether bitcoin is a bubble may revolve around whether bitcoin was severely undervalued when it was priced @ $200. If btc was significantly undervalued (which it may have been) recent price gains could be sustainable.

There can be significant lag time between fundamental growth and actual price movements.

Bitcoin's high before $200 was $1,000+. It dropped from $1,000+ down to $200, if I'm remembering right. This could be evidence that bitcoin was severely undervalued @ $200. Its real value might have been more than $1,000.
3856  Economy / Economics / Re: AT&T Shocked By DOJ's Imminent Merger-Blocking Lawsuit on: November 21, 2017, 11:37:55 PM
Also, you must think about that this company has done to the administration that has the authority to stop this merger, the Trump Adminsistration can strike this down and they've been ridiculed by all of the news organizations owned by Time Warner.

I expect this to fail, and fail heavy it will.

Exactly. There have been some questionable news stories coming out of CNN. Lots of conflict between the US President and journalists. CNN is owned by Time Warner. This part seems to indicate that may be a relevent issue:

Quote
Later, the DOJ said AT&T and Time Warner had offered to sell CNN if that would cause DOJ to drop its opposition to the deal.

I wouldn't mind a more decentralized and independent media. More emphasis on information, facts, statistics would be nice, too.

Bill Clinton may have been the start of centralized media with his Telecommunications Act of 1996. A repeal of that act could also represent a step in the right direction.
3857  Economy / Economics / Novogratz: Buy Bitcoin Because "We No Longer Trust Financial Institutions." on: November 21, 2017, 11:13:18 PM
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Novogratz Slams Dimon: Buy Bitcoin Because "We No Longer Trust Financial Institutions"

It must be a sign that cryptocurrencies are becoming mainstream when Bloomberg TV launches the first of a six-part series on this comparatively recent innovation. Setting the scene, Bloomberg replayed comments made in interviews from what it described as “Wall Street sceptics”, including (not surprisingly) JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, Neil Dwane of Allianz Global Investors and Severin Cabannes, SocGen’s Deputy CEO. The vignettes were peppered with sound bites like “index of money laundering” and references to tulipmania, as well as the standard establishment narrative of “blockchain over Bitcoin”.

In the studio was high-profile crypto advocate, Mike Novogratz, of Galaxy Investment Partners, who is setting up a crypto investment fund (believed to be in the region of $500 million).

The Bloomberg reporters asked why he’s so bullish on the space when some of his peers, like Dimon et al, are the opposite.

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You might have noticed all of those guys are over sixty and I’m not. There’s some truth to that. It’s very difficult for someone who didn’t grow up in a digital world to actually understand how we could be moving into a digital world.

We know Dwane and that’s a bit harsh. However, this was Novogratz’s take on why Bitcoin has value.

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Bitcoin you can look at as digital gold. What is gold? Gold is precious metal. It could have been copper, there are lots of things on the periodic table, but way back people chose gold to have value. It has value solely because people say it has value. Bitcoin is built on an amazing technology, there’s limited supply of it, people are trusting it.

Probably the most insightful part of the interview was Novogratz’s explanation about the rationale behind the crypto revolution – which was the perfect retort to the likes of Jamie Dimon and SocGen’s Deputy CEO.

Quote
Remember, this whole revolution came out of a breakdown of trust. It came out of the ’08 financial crisis when people said we no longer trust financial institutions, we don’t trust governments and, in parts of the world, today still. If you’re in Venezuela, it’s really hard to trust the central bank, or in Zimbabwe. So, the decentralised revolution, which Bitcoin is really the poster child of, is a response to the breakdown in trust.

The number of people calling out Dimon for his Bitcoin view is growing. Morgan Stanley's CEO, James Gorman, said that Dimon was wrong about Bitcoin while our favourite pushback (before Novogratz) was Macquarie's head of AsiaPac equity strategy, Viktor Shvets. In "Macquarie Lashes Out At Dimon: "Modern Finance", Not Bitcoin, Is The Real Fraud", we quoted Shvets.

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When a number of financial executives recently described Bitcoin as a “fraud” akin to the tulip mania, it exhibited their apparent lack of appreciation of fundamental shifts that are altering global monetary and financial systems. If one describes Bitcoin as a fraud, how would one describe a ‘financial cloud’ that is at least 4x-5x larger than the underlying economies? It is unlikely that US$400 trillion+ of financial instruments circulating around the world would ever be repaid and most are now backed by assets that are already either worthless or are diminishing in value. How does one describe rates and  the yield curve that are either directly determined by CBs (BoJ or PBoC) or heavily influenced by them (Fed or ECB)?

Back to the Novogratz interview and the Bloomberg reporter asked “Is it an investment, or is it a trade?”, citing the theft of Tether tokens overnight and the knock-on effect on Bitcoin volatility.

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“We are in the second or third inning of this revolution, so these are very young experiments. Each of these coins are individual eco systems, with their own use case. Bitcoin, the largest, is really the decentralised system of money, the decentralised system of the store of wealth. But there are thousands of coins, thirty or forty decent market cap coins that have their own system. Because prices have moved so far, like in anything, people are nervous so you made a whole lot of money and there’s news, you book your profits and get out.

This didn’t satisfy the Bloomberg anchor who pressed Novogratz “People lost millions of dollars they’re not going to get back. How does that not put the whole model into question?”

Quote
The total market cap of the crypto space is about a quarter of a trillion dollars and $30 million got hacked. So, it certainly gets people nervous. We spent a lot of time think about security of our coins, how to custody them, how to keep them safe. A few year ago, when I had a smaller amount invested, I spent a lot less time.

After the Tether hack, the Bitcoin price rebounded to a new alltime high.



The Bloomberg reporter noted that Etheruem reached about 35% of crypto market cap earlier this year, before drifting back to less than 20%, while Bitcoin is almost 60%. Novogratz sees Ethereum making a new high shortly.

While Ethereum really had an amazing run, from a dollar two years ago, up to $400 and Bitcoin stayed on the sidelines, then Bitcoin had a big move. I think right now, for first timers entering this market, I think Bitcoin is the name they’ve heard of and that’s really kind of driving that move. Just in the last few days, Ethereum has started to move, I think it’s going to put in a new high soon. There’s a lot of positive things happening in the Ethereum eco system.

Asked about his price projections for the two leading cryptos.

Quote
I think we end the year at $10,000 on Bitcoin, so that’s a decent move from here. I think we end the year at close to $500 on Ethereum.

Novogratz would not be drawn on the size of his crypto fund.

Quote
The SEC doesn’t allow us to talk about fund raising, so I’d get into big trouble.


People have been interested and receptive.

Bloomberg asked him whether he’d made any bets on the recent plethora of ICOs?

Quote
Sure. We’ve been betting on lots of ICOs. I’ve got a bet on WAX which is coming up. It’s a token that’s going to try to decentralise the market place for “skins”, which are the clothing, shields, swords, helmets, which gamers buy to make their avatars look prettier.

This was too much for one of the Bloomberg reporters which, given Novogratz’s wry smile as he was saying it, was probably the point. He continued.

How about this. There are more people that buy and sell digital clothing than there are that buy and sell Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrencies combined.

And to cries of “What?” from the Bloomberg reporters.

It is a giant market.

Still discombobulated by the size of the skins market, the Bloomberg anchors seemed satisfied that Novogratz had given them some punchy price forecasts. However, they should have pressed him a bit harder as he told Reuters TV a week ago that Bitcoin would hit $10,000 in 3-6 months and $20,000 by the end of 2018, when the crypto market in aggregate would be worth $1 trillion. So, apart from bringing forward his $10,000 forecast slightly, the price projections weren't that punchy.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-21/bitcoin-novogratz-destroys-jamie-dimonbecause-we-no-longer-trust-financial-instituti

....

Many good pro crypto arguments contained in this article. Good references to professionals in the financial world coming out in support of bitcoin, too. I like this argument in particular:

Quote
When a number of financial executives recently described Bitcoin as a “fraud” akin to the tulip mania, it exhibited their apparent lack of appreciation of fundamental shifts that are altering global monetary and financial systems. If one describes Bitcoin as a fraud, how would one describe a ‘financial cloud’ that is at least 4x-5x larger than the underlying economies? It is unlikely that US$400 trillion+ of financial instruments circulating around the world would ever be repaid and most are now backed by assets that are already either worthless or are diminishing in value.

According to this article: (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-16/financial-weapons-mass-destruction-top-25-us-banks-have-222-trillion-dollars-derivat) the top 25 banks in the world have a combind $222 trillion dollars in derivatives exposure. Globally exposure is said to be $500 trillion.

The dangers involved make for an interesting pro crypto argument.

3858  Economy / Economics / Bitcoin Is Creeping Into Real Estate Deals on: November 21, 2017, 09:31:25 PM
Quote
Several states have changed laws to allow the technology to be used in property transactions

The real-estate industry is taking its first steps in adopting cryptocurrencies and the technology that backs them in what could eventually produce important changes in the way property is bought and sold.

While noticeable differences might be years or even decades away, several U.S. states already have changed laws to allow the technology to be used in property deals.

Most of the focus in the real-estate industry is on how “blockchain” technology could affect the way property titles are recorded and transferred in the sales process. Blockchain acts as a ledger for who owns a particular bitcoin or other cryptocurrency. Proponents say it can be applied to the process for recording and transferring property titles, providing an efficient and secure way to track who owns a piece of land, an office building or a home.

“If you were to design a [title] system today, it would look a lot more like what people are talking about in terms of recording electronically and through something like the blockchain than the system we have in place now,” said Michael Pieciak, commissioner of financial regulations for Vermont, one of the most aggressive U.S. states in adopting the technology.

Some real-estate companies also are beginning to experiment with using cryptocurrencies for such things as rental payments or even to buy property.

ManageGo, a New York-based company that provides technology to residential property managers, plans to begin enabling people to pay rents with virtual money early next year, according to Chaim Lowenstein, a ManageGo vice president. The apartment-building managers who use ManageGo will be able to offer their tenants the ability to use bitcoin or two other cryptocurrencies, ethereum and litecoin, to pay rent.
“This is just another amenity for this crowd that fits the demographics of people that have dabbled in bitcoin,” said Mr. Lowenstein.
Like other new technologies, blockchain has the potential to be enormously disruptive in real estate. The impact could be biggest in the multibillion-dollar industry that provides title insurance and plays an integral role in most real-estate sales.


As a precaution, many title-insurance companies are studying the use of blockchain to ensure they are “in the drivers’ seat versus being in the passenger’s seat” if these changes take place, said Steven Gottheim, senior counsel of the American Land Title Association, a trade group. “The lesson you can see in the industries that have been disrupted” is that the greatest danger is to companies that “don’t realize new technology is coming,” he said.

Mr. Gottheim said initial tests of the use of blockchain technology for title recording by IBM and startups like R3 CEV look promising. But he pointed out that enormous hurdles face the use of blockchain technology and businesses are in the “really early stages of trying to figure out if this is hype or reality.”

The traditional system of recording property ownership has been centuries in the making. In the U.S., property titles are public documents recorded with roughly 3,600 counties, towns and other jurisdictions. In some cases, the record is available only in writing and can be viewed only by visiting a town clerk’s office.

Title-insurance companies essentially guarantee property owners that their ownership claim to a property is solid. If it isn’t the insurers cover the loss.

Blockchain potentially could do this much more efficiently. “That would be a great thing if we could have all records digitized and available online and available in a low-cost and speedy way of finding them, searching and analyzing them,” Mr. Gottheim said.

A number of startups have jumped into this arena. For example, last year, Amsterdam-based Bitfury Group said it had an agreement with the Republic of Georgia to develop a land-titling registry using blockchain technology.

Several state governments in the U.S. also are paving the way for the use of the new technology. Earlier this year, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey signed legislation that enables local municipalities to substitute blockchain technology for the conventional method of recording property ownership and sales. “It establishes blockchain as a usable format for smart contracts,” said Patrick Ptak, a spokesman for the governor.
Last year, Vermont enacted a law that said that transactions recorded with blockchain technology “have the presumption of admissibility from an evidentiary perspective,” said Mr. Pieciak. It would allow people to “authenticate a blockchain real-estate transaction whether it’s over a title dispute or divorce proceeding,” he said.

Mr. Pieciak said the legislation is part of an effort by Vermont to encourage financial technology companies to base themselves in the state or to boost their businesses through the use of blockchain technology in a wide range of industries. “We’re looking at ways Vermont could do anything to make our regulatory environment more hospitable,” he said.

Mr. Pierciak said a number of questions remain, such as how mortgages would be incorporated and how title insurance world work. But technically local municipalities in Vermont now have the legal framework to switch to recording deeds using blockchain technology, although none has made that move so far.

Proponents of the new technologies envision a day when crytpocurrencies will be used to buy real estate and blockchain technology will be used to record the transfers. A San Francisco-based startup named Propy in September said a digital currency named “ether” had been used to buy an apartment in Ukraine.

“I think it’s going to happen much faster than everyone anticipated,” said Alex Voloshyn, Propy’s chief technology officer.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-is-creeping-into-real-estate-deals-1511265600

....

The main announcement in the article (bolded) is a bit underwhelming. Here it is for anyone who missed it:

Quote
ManageGo, a New York-based company that provides technology to residential property managers, plans to begin enabling people to pay rents with virtual money early next year, according to Chaim Lowenstein, a ManageGo vice president. The apartment-building managers who use ManageGo will be able to offer their tenants the ability to use bitcoin or two other cryptocurrencies, ethereum and litecoin, to pay rent.
“This is just another amenity for this crowd that fits the demographics of people that have dabbled in bitcoin,” said Mr. Lowenstein.
Like other new technologies, blockchain has the potential to be enormously disruptive in real estate. The impact could be biggest in the multibillion-dollar industry that provides title insurance and plays an integral role in most real-estate sales.

Summary: A company called ManageGo is introducing a system to allow tenants in new york to pay their rents with bitcoin, ethereum and litecoin.

The article discusses how blockchain could allow a transition from written real estate deeds and records to a purely digital system.

I wouldn't mind if paper systems were maintained and never abolished as they have a tendency to be more difficult to forge and falsify than digital, electronic, records.
3859  Economy / Marketplace / Brave Browser Now Allows YouTubers To Earn Cryptocurrency on: November 21, 2017, 09:04:16 PM
Quote
Individual content creators on YouTube may now earn cryptocurrency using the Brave Payment System integrated into the Android web browser. Since the app blocks third-party advertisements and tracking by default, an attention-based reward system was developed so that publishers are still compensated for their content. Brave’s system uses Basic Attention Tokens based on Ethereum and rewards websites based on how often did people access a particular page and how much time was spent viewing the site’s content per session. The contribution is determined by a computer algorithm and is given to publishers on a monthly basis. While the team behind the browser already collaborated with publishers in order to take advantage of its reward system, the new update now allows users to identify specific YouTube content creators that will benefit from their contributions, and they will be paid even if the video is embedded on another website.

In order for publishers to start earning money, their emails should first be verified as Brave authenticates the ownership of a YouTube channel using a straightforward procedure. Publishers will be notified once the contributions from the browser’s users reach an equivalent of $100 in tokens and they can collect the contributions by creating an account on Uphold, a financial service platform that converts cryptocurrency to fiat currency. Brave takes five percent from the contributions made by the users, which is then used to cover infrastructure costs of the service.

Even though the amount of contributions is determined by an algorithm, Brave allows its users to prevent certain websites from getting paid. This can be done by going to the Payments Preference page and toggling a switch located in the publisher browsing history section of the interface. Right now, only the desktop version of the browser can take advantage of the feature, although the firm promised a future update that will integrate mobile browsers into the equation, claiming that another later upgrade will synchronize contributions across multiple devices. To ensure that the contributions are secure and anonymous, Brave utilizes the ANONIZE open source protocol to protect data transmitted over a network, while on-device statistical voting is used to prevent any third party from divulging someone’s viewing habits based on their contributions.



https://www.androidheadlines.com/2017/11/brave-browser-now-allows-youtubers-to-earn-cryptocurrency.html

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Brave (browser) has included support for cryptocurrencies for awhile now. Paying youtube content creators in crypto is their newest feature.

For those unfamiliar with Brave, its a browser built with anonymity in mind. Its engineered to block ads and make it difficult for your browsing history to be tracked by advertisements. I think it also has a feature which allows people to pay certain websites they like for viewing their content. It has its own intricate system for handling advertising. I can't say I've used it before. Its something I've been meaning to do I've only never gotten around to it.

Brave might also have a feature where users can earn crypto by viewing advertisements. I'm not 100% certain if it does or not but I vaguely remember it might have option built into it somewhere.
3860  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Warren Buffet: The Idea that Bitcoin has Value “Is Just a Joke” on: November 20, 2017, 10:53:04 PM
As a clarification, Buffett went on to say that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are “a very effective way of transmitting money, and you can do it anonymously and all that”, but it doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things: “A check is a way of transmitting money, too.

Are checks worth a whole lot of money just because they can transmit money?”. He finished his statement with a harsher criticism of Bitcoin, saying that the “idea that [it] has some huge intrinsic value is just a joke, in my view”.

A check is a way of transmitting money.

Unfortunately its not a method which would allow a person to maintain the value of their wealth if the euro and dollar crash.

I feel like potential hyperinflation of fiat currencies are the main issue Warren Buffett is avoiding. Bitcoin doesn't carry a danger of its supply being hyperinflated (massively devalued) through overprinting. That could be where a large impetus of bitcoin growth comes from.

All in all, Buffett is heavily invested in the stock market & the last thing he wants is for investors to pull their money out of stocks and put it into crypto instead. Buffett is in a position where politically he has no choice but to condemn bitcoin. He's always played it safe. New and emerging technologies are not his forte.
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