Great.  We are making progress here.

I'm saying that you are no fun, and you are saying that I am no fun.


We are not going to actually know the status of any other member, and why does it even matter if I believe that you might be a low coiner or a no coiner or accuse you of such?  I might be wrong, I might be trolling or I might even be exaggerating such position in order to get an emotional response out of you.. or maybe I am negotiating?

Each of us is able to proceed to characterize the words and seeming actions of other members based on categories that we might believe such words and actions appear to fit...

What's wrong with that?  

For the record, I doubt that you are a complete no coiner, even when you have had your moments of being even a BIGGER jerk than anyone else... and trying to one-upsman jerkmanship....

And again level of low-coiner is a relative concept... in which any of us could be wrong in terms of making those kinds of accusations to make a point or for whatever reason that we might be wanting to make such accusations.  

From the perspective of this here cat, I still have difficulties knowing why it really matters... the label is a bit of a distraction... even if such labels might sometimes help other forum members to figure out from where a member is coming from in terms of how s/he frames issues and what observations are being made or which arguments are being presented.

Go ahead... Stay excited about low prices.. whatever.. that's up to you, and it is not like my mood is exactly locked in, anyhow (to the extent that I have moods).  Surely I sometimes will get excited about negative BTC prices because it weeds out certain kinds of degenerates.. and sometimes I wish for more crash in order to weed out some of the shitcoins too.. but sometimes it NOT healthy to focus on negative aspects, even if some of the purging of froth serves as a kind of unwanted necessity... or seemingly so..

Can you imagine if FTX would have been able to keep going with that level of bullshit fake money that they were slushing around?  So yeah there can be some glee but at the same time some sadness with some of the innocent folks that had been pulled into such messes.. and even from various angles that we would not have expected.. questioning the solvency of GBTC. etc..


I am not necessarily asking you to reveal anything.. but hey do whatever you want.  You know that we sometimes do talk about these kinds of allocation concepts because they can help us to figure out if we are in a right kind of balance on a personal level, and then surely other forum members can attempt to figure out their own balance and sometimes compare themselves to other member.. dos and don't dos..

Surely some practices of allocation seem better than others, and frequently we can talk about how we might be allocated prior to getting into bitcoin and then changing that allocation while we are accumulating a bitcoin position and reaching a target, and then maybe various ways to engage in BTC maintenance.

That seems a bit much to say that you are 99% bitcoin, unless you are just referring to your "crypto" holdings..., and within your crypto holdings you are 99% bitcoin..

Anyhow some folks have more variety in their overall investment portfolio, and we need not necessarily get into those kinds of details, even though I have made quite a few post on the topic and even described how my BTC allocations changed partially due to BTC price changes and then also there is some management attempts in there too.. and also some preferences NOT to sell too much of my BTC.. even though for sure, we have BTC valuations that have tended to experience a lot of volatility over the 9 years that I have been into bitcoin... overall to the upside, even though considerable periods of downside, too.

It's not always easy to know if one strategy is better than another, and if you were to compare yourself to what you did versus what you might have done better, then frequently, I like to use the DCA as a kind of measure to figure out if you might have been able to beat a DCA strategy with your chosen allocation approach.

I am not really sure about your circumstances, but if we go by your forum registration date (of November 4, 2018) as a kind of BTC entry point, then maybe we can consider a hypothetical person and his performance as compared to how your performance is doing.. and you are the one who should judge yourself and your particulars in terms of comparing yourself to such hypothetical person...

Let me extrapolate, and suggest that if you were to have had a total quasi-liquid investment portfolio of $100k in November 2018, and then there could have been a variety of ways that you could have entered into bitcoin, even assuming that you were aggressive (assertive) in your bitcoin approach instead of whimpy.  So maybe you could have done a fairly rapid allocation of 10% into bitcoin $10k-ish (let's say getting somewhere around 1.6 BTC) and then after that started to invest $50 per week which would have doubled your investment amount with about another $10,750 and the accumulation of another 0.9 BTC... so then the total number of BTC would have been about 2.5 based on around a $21k investment.

Of course, you are suggesting that you sold some of your BTC on the way up (50% ish) and then purportedly you are buying back or you have already mostly bought back.. Whatever, there are all kinds of ways that these matters could play out in terms of how long that you might spend accumulating BTC and then maybe if you had overallocated in the beginning, such as buying $20k worth of BTC rather than $10k, then you might have felt that you had an additional 1.6 BTC that you could have sold because you overallocated in the beginning of your investment.  There are ways to engage in these kinds of risk management and portfolio management that are more prudent and reasonable (and don't necessarily rise to the level of gambling), and there are ways to be degenerate about it..   You have the ability to make your choices based on your individual factors... and to learn from your mistakes (to the extent that you might have had any) and then to attempt to incorporate better practices (to the extent that you care about money - which you emotionally blurted that you do not.. hahahahaha.. go figure?  or don't.).


Sure.  Bitcoin gives no shits about whether you are enjoying these times or not.  I probably already said enough on the topic... which kind of revolves around taking advantage of the situation as much as possible.. but I still have troubles enjoying these kinds of times.. .. and I don't even regret that I did not sell very much on the way up... not really getting into too many details, but I did likely sell 2x to 3x the amount that I had initially invested.. but then used that money to buy back on the way down and mostly used it up by the time that we got down to $19k or so.... but the way that I do my systems, it is not really easy to trace exactly what is new money or what is just used up from previous sales on the way up.. even though I can see that quite a bit of my additional money is coming into bitcoin that I had considered was completely off of the table.. so I prefer NOT to be injecting new money into bitcoin, but there has already been quite a bit of new money coming in..  .. for me, it is not enjoyable, but I am not exactly in pain, either.. .. How is anyone going to complain when clearly and unambiguously being able to proclaim that s/he is at least in 16x profits (as I type this post)..


Oh.  How sweet of you.  


If you had not noticed, Bitcoin is so volatile that it might be worthy of having a cushion.. and also it might be worthy of having some ways to plan your finances in order to make sure that your plan is psychologically comfortable.  Isn't that part of the reason that you sold 50% of your BTC when the prices were higher?  Because presumptively you were trying to employ a strategy that you believed would be sufficiently balanced to your circumstances in which you would have to worry the least.  Whether it worked out somewhere in the ball park as planned might be another story.  So perhaps learning along the way is done in order to attempt to figure out whether to continue with the same kinds of plans and practices, or whether to make some tweaks to the plans in order to maximize comfort.  

Sure, maybe you can assert that whatever you did was perfect, and sure that might be true, and maybe in that whole process you were able to minimize the amount of time that you ended up thinking about "money matters," and good for uie pooie if you were able to achieve such objectives... and suppose part of my point would be that there are a lot of reasons why it is not easy to divorce your lil selfie from "money matters" including ongoingly trying to figure out how to even value and evaluate something like bitcoin - even if you might already have had reached fuck you status with it.. then if fuck you status had been valuated based on possible bottoms, including perhaps considering that the 200-week moving average was the bottom, now there may well be some needs to evaluate and valuate bitcoin holdings by using other standards, and I am not sure how any of us can completely remove our lil selfies from those kinds of considerations, especially if we choose to have decently high allocations into bitcoin... and even if we might have reached fuck you status and/or multiple levels of fuck you status, it might become easier when we might have larger cushions, but when the BTC price is moving so much, there can also be questions for guys/gals who previously concluded that their financial/psychological cushions were "large enough."


So, you won't be delegating your "wonderful" sense of humor, then?


Sounds like you are avoiding the question.  We have not established coiner levels, to the extent that it matters.


We're making progress.. A stalemate.


Ok.  I will try, Mr. Emotional.


Not really.

You believe that your examples are the same?  You've got logical fallacy (or would it be called analogy-choosing deficiencies?) issues.  No?


Sure, when we are attempting to predict the future, it does boil down to which facts and logic we believe to be more relevant in regards to assigning probabilities, including how certain we might be about some kinds of things happening or not, and sure there are some beliefs in there too - because whenever we are talking about the future, we are referring to a variety of factors so sometimes we will admit that we do not have all the facts that we need or we might not be sure about the logic.. and also we have human behavior that has not yet been executed that we do not know it advance, even if we might place some of the human behavior into predictive categories too.. that might not exactly be knowable..


I should have said "this is poof."


Aw shucks!




Why get so emotional?


I cannot really know for sure, but maybe if you have less than what you should have in BTC in accordance with your finances and psychology measurements that you have to make.  I tend to recommend an investment portfolio that is between 1% and 25% for newbies starting out, yet each person has to figure out his her proper balance.. so a low coiner would be someone who is being overly whimpy whether intentionally or accidentally.


Stop enjoying it... whether pleasantly or otherwise.  


Wow.  That's a lot.  Selling that much might well 'splain some of your good mood, currently.



Are you trying to suggest that you are on a higher plane than everyone else here?

Have you realized that we are in a thread in which we are talking about bitcoin.. which is a form of money?.. sure it has other characteristics too, but bitcoin is the topic of this thread.


1) do you believe that it is beneficial or even desirable to delegate all things?

2) have we established that this cat happens to be a higher coiner than any other cat, including you?


In theory, that would be great.


For what am I choosing?  Are you trying to undermine OPsec of a peep?  Shame on uie-pooie.  


AT this particular moment, it is hard to argue with that kind of a scenario... .. but now that you wrote it down, it is NOT likely to happen..

 


You shouldn't have said anything.

I am considering that we might well be in a period that might be close to bottom for fiat-related bullshit.. .. so in essence fiat is largely sideways. and bitcoin does not necessarily do bad in "fiat sideways" kinds of scenarios... so "fiat sideways" bitcoin trickling up and trickling up.. and if bitcoin trickles up too much, then that becomes problematic for no coiners, low coiners and bitcoin naysayers.. because value ends up gravitating in bitcoin's direction.. so higher levels of desperation, attacks and battles against bitcoin could be part of the messy short term.. .. but the word is still getting out.. seems to me... trickle, trickle trickle.. starts to add up after a while.. no?


That's pretty specific.

Is "crypto" in the room with us, now?


Oh My!

You may well need a batslap, just to relieve you....   Tinnitus, perhaps?


Hm?  Maybe you don't understand the difference?  I was responding to your comment...   Maybe it amounts to the same thing, but I felt no burden to have to prove whatever point that I was making.  If I was making a point on my own, then maybe I would need to provide some better evidence... maybe.


I don't think so.  What I said does not seem the same as what Clinton said.  And, sure Clinton is famous for that testimony... Famous for other things too.. but still.


I am not changing my view on this or my way of framing it.  I already made my points.  Do you want to go over it again substantively?  Did I miss something?  Does more need to be said?  Yeah a bunch of fucking dweebs are going to continue to argue correlation.. and I am going to continue to say that is bullshit.. unless the evidence changes... which it might.. but it has not changed so far, from my way of thinking about it.  What else needs to be said?  Which aspect do you want to argue?  Do you want to continue to argue correlation?   

Yes, you give more weight to those correlation arguments, and could be part of the reason that you hardly have any BTC after 11 years in bitcoin.  Sure there are likely other reasons that you hardly have any BTC as you had explained, and I have already asserted many times my belief that you continue to make some of the similar mistakes as you have historically been making, which is not stacking enough bitcoin.. but whatever.. you do you.  Maybe whatever you are doing currently is going to end up working out for you, this time?  Maybe?


I am going based on things that you have said, and you are frequently pumping that nonsense...including being all excited about the interest rates on Ibonds.. blah blah blah.  I am attempting to go based on what you have been saying rather than just making shit up.. .


Sure... But so what.  I don't disagree with those statements.  There has always been a lot going on in BTC, and sure I can criticize you for your BTC approach going back 11 years, and maybe I can applaud you for accumulating and stacking more sats in the past few years?  But you still frequently say some things that cause me to conclude that you are not coming to the right kinds of balances, including regarding how you talk about how to accumulate BTC and then how to maintain BTC investment.


You don't really believe that.  Yeah, currently you are DCAing, but you sold while the BTC price was going down in order that you can buy back cheaper.  That's a different strategy.  Sure, such strategy might end up working out for you, but it is not a "be like JJG just DCA BTC" strategy.. .. and even though I have tended to put a lot of emphasis on DCA, especially for beginner bitcoiners, I still try to emphasize tailoring your approach to the situation.. which would be weighted towards accumulating BTC in the beginning with an emphasis on DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing. 

Then once you establish your BTC stash, then you will have more flexibility to sell on the way up and buy on the way down... so selling and buying lower is not really anything that I would suggest, even if you got lucky with your doing it this time, and sure maybe once you have sold, then sure DCAing would be part of the strategy to buy back and also buying on dips... so I cannot really disagree with that part.. but whenever I had historically sold more BTC than what my otherwise normal strategies would guide (maybe the last time was around 2016 -- I cannot remember exactly.. but it is not something that I usually do), I get nervous about not having enough BTC and I tend to buy back way too soon.. so I pretty much stopped trying to sell any BTC to buy back lower.. because it does not tend to work for me.. at least not so far in my bitcoin journey.. and it seems to not be necessary.. even though I can see why people might be lured into that kind of an approach.

In the end, I probably don't really disagree with you on any of this, and I think that I was initially triggered by Roccker's referring members off of the forum.

I am not trying to lock anyone into any kind of specific amount, even though prior to March 2020, I used to describe $1 million as entry-level fuck you status, but more recently, I thought that it would be more realistic to use $2 million as our presumption of entry-level fuck you status - especially for people in the West.. even though I recognize and appreciate that people might have BTC/wealth accumulation goals that are way smaller, such as getting to $100k.. or even way larger, such as getting to $20 million.. or whatever a lot of variations of such.

The use of $2 million as entry level fuck you status is just a guide that is an attempt to be more concrete with about the necessary that each of us needs to attempt to ground ourselves somewhat into figuring out our goals in terms of quantity of value and timeline, and then figuring out what we might be able to do once we have reached the goals that we have created for ourselves... and even including that we create goals, but we can tweak them along the way in all kinds of regards in terms of timeline, value sought, how to measure value based on assessing various assets/currencies (including but not limited to bitcoin), how to get to the places that we aim to get, etc.

Of course, there is no absolute need for any specific person to even get close to $2 million or even to believe that they need to get to some kind of an entry-level fuck you status in order to be able to profit stupendously from establishing a bitcoin plan that involves accumulating bitcoin and figuring out ways to execute such bitcoin accumulation plans... and including figuring out how bitcoin accumulation might supplement any other financial/psychological plannings that they might already have.

And, yes many of these concepts might remain somewhat as moving targets including considerations regarding whether ways that value is held is actually holding value or appreciating in value, and then considering whether future performance might be able to be predicted within a flexible framework that may or may not be achieved... So projections of future value based on a variety of factors might also need to be adjusted from time to time, yet many of us know that failing to plan may well be similar to planning to fail, so in that regard, I am a much bigger fan of planning, even if the plans may well need to be tweaked from time to time, but if we are able to get a lot of the directional aspects correct in our planning, then the fact that some of the specifics might not have come out as planned might not be detrimental to our plan.

Let me use your forum registration date as a hypothetical framework, and let's say that 3 years ago, such hypothetical person started to get into bitcoin, and s/he had around $200k of quasi-liquid assets in his/her total investment portfolio, and maybe at that time s/he was using $1 million as his/her goal, so s/he felt pretty good that s/he was nearly 1/5 of the way there, and it may take another 10 to 20 years or more to reach fuck you status, but then when March 2020 came, s/he realizes that s/he better aim for $2 million in order to attempt to be more realistic. 

If we consider that such hypothetical person figured out bitcoin, and decided to be somewhat aggressive in BTC, then such hypothetical person might have decided to put 10% of his her total investment portfolio in bitcoin, and maybe it would take a year to reach such target.. so maybe in the next year between late 2019 and late 2020, such person accumulated $20k worth of bitcoin.  So, such hypothetical person can continue to measure what are his/her investments and how are they performing, are there any needs to change the allocations.  It is possible that a person getting into bitcoin in late 2019 might have been able to accumulate quite a few bitcoin under $10k.. so feeling pretty good now, but we have had a lot of trauma in the last two year in terms of how to measure such value and the value of the various assets within our investment portfolio.. and how to attempt to manage that and maybe even how to focus our allocations, whether to engage in reallocations and a variety of individual considerations.

So then some of the questions for such hypothetical person might be how to compare what his/her initial late 2019 projections compare to where s/he is actually at versus where s/he had projected him/herself to be and whether any tweakings need to be made.. or if the initial plan is still generally and directionally working.  Is progress being made towards the goal to get to fuck you status in 10-20 years, and sometimes it might appear that in the short term (even within 3 years of starting the initial plan) that progress might be hard to measure, but if BTC accumulation remained part of the plan there could have been a lump sum investment of $20k in to bitcoin (maybe getting 3 BTC), and then a dollar cost averaging into bitcoin thereafter... so maybe $50 per week of DCA into bitcoin over the last 3 years would have cost about $7,850 and resulted in an accumulated of an additional 0.4 BTC... so such hypothetical person would have accumulated around 3.4 BTC..and could measure whether the ways of allocating are profitable in the long term even if the level of current profits might not exactly be large or even in the positive in the short term... .so the person who had $200k in his her investment portfolio in late 2019 may or may not be in profits at the moment, and there might be questions about whether progress is being made and if it will be made in the future based on ongoing investments.. any tweaks necessary? 

And even if such person does not make fuck you status in 10 years to 20 years, s/he will still likely continue to profit from ongoing investing and accumulating bitcoin.. whether reallocating at these levels or merely continuing to DCA into bitcoin.. while realizing that there are no guarantees that goals will be met in 10 to 20 years, and maybe the timeline needs to be adjusted at a later date, too?  but is such hypothetical person going to stay in bitcoin or not?  increase his/her bitcoin allocation or not?  Those are personal choices that may or may not end up paying off, yet many of us in this forum continue to believe that bitcoin is amongst the best of investments as long as each of us attempts to allocate aggressively without being overly aggressive in such a way that causes us to lose our bitcoin.


Strong hands and whales are not the same thing.

A strong hand can be someone who has less than 1 BTC and who either continues to buy or maybe even buys more at these prices.

One of the difficulties for a lot of folks who had been convinced about bitcoin is that they were buying bitcoin all the way down from $50k, then $40k, then $30k, then $20k and then now around $17k. .perhaps even picking up some bitcoin below $16k.. and there may be times in which they have run out of money or spent way more of their available cash reserves than they expected because they did not expect BTC prices to go lower than their purchase price.  They might be referred to as strong hands partially because they are still able to buy, but also for the fact that they have not been selling in these sub $20k prices.. and are still able to buy.

The term strong hand is a pretty loose one, but still I would not consider the need to be a BIG player, even though I do believe that bigger players will sometimes have more cash in which they are able to buy.. but some of the folks with a lot of cash do not even recognize and/or appreciate the value of buying BTC... so in that regard, there might be some preference to measure a strong hand who is actually able to invest into bitcoin as at least figuring out that bitcoin is a good investment.. because the other folks who had already figured out bitcoin is a good investment bought a lot of bitcoin already at higher prices.

I am not completely against the idea of "legal counsel" or even the counsel of a professional "accountant"  or even the counsel of a professional psychologist, but we can also study into the laws and practices and to figure out some of these standards for our lil selfies, especially if we have some value at stake then we may well be more motivated to look into specifics as they pertain to our situation and we also may be more willing to share our findings with other people.. including in forums like this.. .. and there are surely public legal (bankruptcy) standards related to these kinds of matters, and I would consider that a lot of bitcoiners are somewhat self-help kinds of people that have brains for themselves.. and sure not everyone has a brain that functions well.. but still..   some of folks might already have access to attorneys and consultants, but some of them are able to figure out these kinds of matters for themselves including looking at the relevant laws, looking at their own circumstances (including where they are located and how much value that they may have taken out over the past 90 days and what were the circumstances of their having had removed such value) calculating how probable it might be that they might even receive a clawback notice... and even already have a plan in place, in the event that they do receive a clawback notice.. even if such clawback notice might well never come.

I am not opposed to getting legal advice if the circumstances might be complicated or if amounts at issue might be large and/or if the person might be in a jurisidiction in which it would be easy to serve legal notice and especially if someone has been served a clawback notice then it would become more important to act upon the receipt of such notice.. but some people might be smart enough to know what to do, how to prepare, what to research into without even having to seek "professional help".. and whether to cooperate with such claw back notice if it were to come depending on their own circumstances... or to address the clawback matter once notice is served, and if such a thing were to even be served.  

I am part of this forum and participate in this forum because I believe that there is value in learning and sharing information with forum members, and I am not as excited about referring members to outside locations (such as a telegram group).. and in that regard, I have my doubts regarding how private telegram may be.... but I don't know and then also, sure I may agree with you PrimeNumber7 that even if we do get into actual legal strategizing, then we are then going to be strategizing with a lawyer and/or accountant rather than posting any of our specific legal strategies on a public forum unless we believe that we are somewhat anonymous and we are not necessarily revealing too much of our personal details or circumstances or giving ourselves away more than necessary.  

For sure it should be seen as a problem that there is already a public list of Celsius names and other details.. so surely that causes issues with real names (or whatever name a Celsius account holder may have used in terms of his/her Celsius account).

Furthermore, if many folks are scared that "maybe I will get a clawback notice?" and no such clawback notice is even pending or even likely, they might be getting very worked up about something that is not likely to happen, they may well not need to seek legal help, help from an accountant or even psychological help.. and they may well be able to figure out some of these strategy matters by sharing information on forums and also by looking up information, too.... and merely having some supra $10k transactions in the past 90 days or amounts that add up to $10k would hardly even worry quite a few people.... .. so yeah there are some devils in the details kinds of considerations that could cause clawback notices to be more likely for some people versus others.

I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying ajiz138.. at least my attempt to understand what you are saying.

It is really difficult to figure out if someone might be overallocating into bitcoin and not keeping enough of a reserve fund or maybe if there might be some need to diversify into other assets/currencies - and also there is so much country specificness too.

Surely it can be problematic to ONLY have investments into one's local fiat, USD and bitcoin, but if someone is building their investments, these might be the ONLY options that they know.  Of course, another one is buying versus renting or if someone might have access to buying some stock funds, but if we are ONLY looking at the three being  local currency, USD (or something pegged to USD) and bitcoin, then surely each of us had to figure out how to apportion our ongoing investment into each or how much reserves that we might keep in each of the categories.

Recently, I have been considering that it might not even be a bad thing to retain some emergency funds in bitcoin.. instead of keeping all emergency funds in fiat - yet of course, how much to allocate to each still is going to depend on some specifics, even including size of the various funds, how much money a person needs on a regular basis, how much fluctuation is within the cashflow and the expenses, and what kinds of emergencies might come about....

I know that I like to talk about reaching $2million as being a kind of entry-level fuck you status because it allows for a potential for somewhat perpetual ability to live off of the interest/appreciation which we could estimate to be around $6,666 per month.

I know that many people do not consider that they can get to those kinds of levels, and so they might have financial value accumulation goals that are way smaller because they are expecting to live off the interest and to consume the principle too.. .. so maybe if someone has a goal to get to $200k or even $500k by the time they are 50 years old or 60 years old, then maybe they consider that they can just live off of that amount until they die or that amount will supplement whatever other revenue sources that they expect to have at that time.

We still can be faced with questions regarding how much value to keep in each investment asset/currency class that is available in order that we can attempt to ensure that the value of our investment is growing at least equal to or greater than the cost of living, so in the long run we are going to be better to be holding higher amounts of value in BTC as long as we are never forced to sell our BTC at a time that is anything other than our own choosing or even that we are not tempted to dig into our BTC holdings merely because it is way more money than we have in other places, and we start to believe that we are not really damaged when we make those kinds of early dips into our BTC holdings.



I think that you are framing this matter strangely and even somewhat wrongly Oneandpure.

It seems to me that recently so many people had considered that they need to "earn yield" on their bitcoin and their various value holdings contributing to their placing their bitcoin and other value with third parties who ended up running off with the money, losing it or engaging in some other behaviors that cause somewhat innocent people to lose money because they believe that they need to earn yield on their bitcoin.

It seems to me that historically bitcoin has shown that merely holding bitcoin ends up contributing to decently high odds that the bitcoin will go up in value sufficiently in order that the bitcoin holdings themselves are the yield and one of the main goals would be to continue to accumulate bitcoin without losing it and then 10 years to 20 years down the road, there are decent odds that your bitcoin are worth way more than what you paid for them and also worth way more than any other place that you could have put your value - including that if you have kept control over your bitcoin then you also likely have options regarding how to spend your bitcoin or otherwise use your bitcoin in order to take advantage of the increased value of the bitcoin.. so you do not need to earn yield on your bitcoin because the value has increased way more than any yield that you could have gotten (especially if you account for the various risks of giving your bitcoin to third parties).

So part of the issue with bitcoin is having a long enough timeline in order that you are able to build and keep secure your bitcoin holdings over decently long periods of time 4-10 years or more... and then likely being in a pretty good position to start to spend them later down the road.

Of course, if any of us get too greedy then we likely put our bitcoin at risk.

I need as many words as it takes to make my point, within the boundaries of my assessment and discretion.


I was not asserting anything.  I was rebutting Philip's assertion.


Why do I give any shits about your purported evidence. 

I can look at the charts myself and see that bitcoin is not correlated to the stock market in the long term, even if there is both evidence that 1) there are short term correlations and 2) and there are a lot of people making those kinds of assertions.

Good luck to them.. especially during periods in which bitcoin is not correlated and they end up getting fucked because of such non-correlation events.


Did I not already state that I could give less than two shits if you are framing bitcoin's purported correlation in light of what happened in the last year, but you still continue to argue such period as if it is actually relevant or anything that I give any shits about.


Good for you.  I am glad that you are getting so excited to be spending your time to analyze correlation that you believe exists, and hopefully you will be able to profit stupendously off of such supposed correlation, while I end up suffering under my assessment of the situation... in which I put little weight into such assertions of supposed correlations because they are not true.. even though I see all kinds of arguments and evidence purporting such claims that end up not really being true.. especially if you actually zoom out a wee bit.

Have you ever wondered why during my time in bitcoin (since about late 2013) the overall stock market and my investments in relationship to the stock market has gone up around 75% - and my investment in bitcoin has gone up in the ballpark of 17.7x to 68x... depending if we start bitcoin with a $1k-ish beginning cost basis or we might be more generous and start bitcoin with a $250 beginning cost basis.   Or maybe we go somewhere in the middle in terms of figuring out from where we start.

I would suggest that bitcoin has performed anywhere from 8.5x to 34x greater than the stock market during the time that I have been in bitcoin... .. do you consider such longer period to be relevant or not?  I don't need to cherry pick the data.. maybe we can pick some other period of time.. that is sufficiently long and attempts to be reflective of the asset classes that are being compared with bitcoin. 


Oh great! You have become more adventurous and now your are zooming out 4 years rather than ONLY 1 year..

Good job.

And you are also making a prediction that may or may not end up coming true.

What is your goal in this?  Do you want to suggest that I am attempting to predict bitcoin wrongly?  or that I am describing bitcoin's history wrongly?

I have a strategy to invest in bitcoin that largely presumes that in the long term bitcoin is going to appreciate in value at least as much as other possible investments, if not better.  I am not desperate in terms of whether I am correct in my assessment of bitcoin as an asset class, even though I presume bitcoin to be amongst the best of investments that are available to people.. normies, even more well off persons, institutions, governments and perhaps some other entity types that I have missed.  I don't claim to know the future of bitcoin, except to continue to presume that bitcoin likely continues to have great ongoing likelihood for success as an investment.. and its investment thesis seems to be just as strong, if not stronger, than it was when I got started investing in it, even though I understand that there are not guarantees, and even though I understand that each of us is responsible to go forward with our decisions whether to allocate into bitcoin and how much bitcoin to invest into bitcoin in terms of assessing our own situations.  I also have a variety of ideas regarding how a variety of kinds of people might consider how to weigh their various circumstances.. and also one of the factors would be their assessment of bitcoin as an investment as compared to other possible investments that are available to them. 

We do not need to agree about how we view bitcoin's as an investment class as compared to other investment options are available to us.  I am not going to all of a sudden start to buy into the supposed correlation arguments because they have been being made ever since I got into bitcoin, and they have tended to be wrong, and from my perspective those kinds of correlation arguments are likely going to continue to be wrong.. so you better fucking hope that you and your other bitcoin naysayers, and shitcoin pumpeners have a sufficient allocation to bitcoin rather than some other bullshit scam project .. .. but hey, you do what you like.. it's your choice. .and it is also your choice whether you want to spend time analyzing supposed short-term correlations that appear to exist between bitcoin and stocks, until they don't.  Good luck with that.. you are likely going to need it, including whatever audience you are trying to scam into believing such nonsense... when you should know better... you been in bitcoin nearly as long as me, even though you seem to be way more shitcoin and other purported value projects oriented than this here cat.. but hey do what you want with your various diversifications into crap and perhaps your overly-weighted diversifications into stocks too.. .

That is proof that you suffer mentally - or unless you are a low coiner or a no coiner.  I know that no coiners and low coiners are "having a blast" from these recently low ("discounted") BTC prices.


"They" decided that JJG had some chores that s/he/it had to do around the house... so JJG is just fine.. just had to do those referenced chores around the house.


There is no need to "push" POW. 

POW is a superior system, so POW seems to already speak for itself. 

Hadn't you realized, after your 11 years in bitcoin, that the way that Bitcoin implements POW serves as a paradigm-shifting invention.. that allows for value to be stored, transmitted and verified digitally in such a way that had never been securedly possible previously.  It's a pretty BIG deal, if you had not noticed... and no real need to sell it or push it... especially now that it's already been operational for nearly 14 years.


Perhaps you don't understand dee cornz either, nutildah - especially if you are coming to a face palming conclusion.


It appears that you read whatever you wanted into your out of context response.. without actually addressing the issue as such issue had been presented by me.


You come to the opposite conclusion, and then say that the matter is "simple."  That approach comes off as face palmable to me.


No one said that corn exists in its own economic bubble... So we agree that corn does not exist in its own economic bubble.  Are "we" making progress?


That appears to be one year's worth of data that is represented in the chart, and then the investopia clip seems to be making an assessment that bitcoin is becoming more correlated based on new financialization instruments that will cause such increased correlation... .

Sure bitcoin could  become more correlated in the future, but currently it is not correlated merely based on 12 months worth of data showing it to have been correlated during the most recent 12-month period.. or whatever it is that you are striving to present and to argue in regard to your assertion that bitcoin is supposedly correlated or becoming correlated.. or your assertion that it has always been correlated or whatever nonsense self-righteous proclamations that you are trying to play gotcha with..
 

Who said that statement?  not this here cat... You are the one presenting data from the last year in order to argue your point... good luck with that, you will likely need it.


I don't think so.  It is possible to have periods of correlation in order to cause people to proclaim that they believe that bitcoin is correlated, and then they end up getting fucked when they end up making bets that are based on overly expecting future correlation to play out merely because they are able to see some evidence of past correlation for periods that they had selected. 

In other words, I stand by my original post, and zoom out your lil selfie a wee bit.  There is no need for me to 'splain the situation further to you since you have already come to this topic in an argument manner in which you are not even trying to represent what I had said versus what you would have liked for me to have had said.. and since you have already made up your mind and want to engage in some seemingly self-righteous gotcha lecturing, anyhow.


I am not going to deny that governments are not on the attack, and for sure, it looks like we are going to be experiencing some of the new attacks.. and so it could end up that we might need to reframe and to rethink some of our issues and some of our framings - depending on if there might be some areas in which some of the newly developing attacks become effective.. and even from one day of hearing, we see a lot of confusing of the FTX matter in order to lump bitcoin in as a culprit, and the Warren proposed legislation seems to be partially motivated by fear of bitcoin, and confusion  (whether purposeful or not) of bitcoin and crypto and even wanting to blanketly frame bitcoin as a threat - through even spreading misinformation through occlusions.. or maybe bad frameworks or maybe just lumping "guilt by association."

Oh my!!!!

Part of your problema philip is that you don't seem to understand dee cornz very well.

Dee cornz are already decoupled - even if we have these periods of correlation, that seem to confuse people.. including but not limited to ur lil selfie.

I would think that you should know better.. but sad thing is that you do not.

You should realize that Bitcoin is already successful in the sense of both being a baby.. and still being a paradigm shifting phenomenon that is very difficult for the status quo powers that be to figure out how to attempt to manage..

and if you keep viewing bitcoin through those kinds of fiat lenses..then you are going to continue to make a lot of dumb proclamations regarding where we are at, where we came from and where we are likely going.. and so seeing where we are at is only part of the assessment.. and another part is why and how we got here..which you do not seem to understand those parts either, even though you seem to know part of it.



It's only simple if you are trying to look at bitcoin through fiat, which is contributing towards your ongoingly being wrong.. in the past you have been wrong, in the present you are wrong, and I am not going to proclaim to know if you will continue to be wrong in the future, even though you have a pretty strongly wrongly pattern going on.  Sorry bout dat.  


Yes.. they are desperate.. and they are trying to suck you in.. which surely is partially successful in getting retail to make up for some of the governments that are trying to get away from supporting USD systems, such as China, Saudi, Russia.. and some others... but yeah.. it might still continue to work for another cycle or two.. (are we talking 4 year cycles or 12 year cycles?)...



No they don't.  suck guys like you in.  That's fine. whatever... but no need to pump that bullshit, here.


Yeah. they have to be purchased... Old debt has to be rolled over into new debt.. and good thing that there are suckers like you willing to buy it... if suckers like you do not buy, and other institutions and governments do not buy, then guess who is buying?  The USGovt will end up buying them, and how are they going to do it?  They will have to print.. .. and if production does not go up high enough, they will be printing higher than the ability continue to service and roll over that debt.. it is truly a sad state of affairs that we are in.. and you seem to not only be buying it hook line and sinker, you are promoting such strategy as if it would actually be good for people to do.. (even implying, instead of bitcoin.. which seems misinformed and lacking in understanding)


Of course, you are so excited that you are repeating yourself.

I don't have problems putting some money into those things, but don't think that they are something that guys/gals should be allocating very much into or even talking about in this thread as if they were some kind of meaningful bitcoin substitute.. .and fuck shitcoins.. who gives any shit about the extent to which US bonds are competing with shitcoins.. Of course, even shitcoins are related to ways in which normies fail/refuse to get their BTC investment allocations figured out... which has to do with figuring out a budget, and then figuring how much BTC to accumulate and how to accumulate and over what period of time.  Keep your eye on the prize...even if you (philip) may well already be a lost cause which continues to show itself in your ongoing lack of focus posts and promoting nonsensical distractions.


Yeah.. sure. there could be another lower low in January.. but it surely is not a condition precedent that is needed in order for BTC prices to go up and for the bottom to be in.

Maybe we get a further bottom.. and maybe we don't.

Maybe such bottom is quick and a wick and maybe it is not.  

When gonna happen?

I saw $18,373 flash before my eyes.... like a dream


Preparing for Christmas turkey.


Bashing on Binance seems like opportunism.. and I doubt it is going to pay off...   Just because FTX was engaged in outrageous shenanigans does not mean that Binance is doing the same.. even if there are some aspects that are similar.. .. The level of bullshit at FTX is beyond outrageous.. and CZ is not even close to being that level of clown.

It's like the historical (nothing burger) bashing on Tether.  Tends to be no there there...

Of course, the fucktwats in DC and other bitcoin naysaying powers that be peeps are going to also try to use as much opportunism as they can muster to go after CZ and .. I have doubts about whether they have anything concrete on him.. even though they will continue to make shit up..

And, maybe like the negativity around silk road in late 2013, there is going to end up being a kind of Streisand effect in terms of ongoingly people are figuring out more and more about bitcoin.. even though there are a lot of confused folks too.. so whether the bottom is in, yes. 50/50 or more likely 49/51 since we gotta get some MOAR and better UPpity.. to get my lil precious out of this current bear market.. and I am really not sure about your assessment of taking until mid-2023 to get to $25k would be enough.. .. though I can appreciate that you have specified both price and time in such a way that it might be reasonable to consider as enough to get us out of our current bear market - even though I am also considering that there might be some upward explosion at some point that would reck some shorts.. and that could happen at any time.. though still might be a wee bit too optimistic to expect any UPpity recking price events from the honey badger in the coming 6-ish months... even though never say never.. and it would be kind of satisfying to see some of the fucktwats  getting recked on the way down and then reckt again on the way up.. two-way reckenings of the overly leveraging gamblers (and likely some less than deserving manipulators getting caught in there too).

Of course bitcoin does not completely negate the potential utility of physical cash..... even though bitcoin is superior than physical cash systems as we currently know them to be..  and surely it will take a long time for bitcoin to completely subsume all monetary value systems through the failure (and inferiority that will continue to be exhibited through various inferior systems, including physical cash like the dollar as we currently know it today), but even then there are other forms of value, besides monetary value that will be retained by other goods, services, assets.. and perhaps some other forms of cash will exist.. even though they might end up having to be issued on bitcoin. .or through some kind of system that is pegged to bitcoin.. but no need to rush these matters that could take decades, if not centuries to sort out the various kinds of value and even the figuring out of how the various shitcoins or value systems are inferior to bitcoin. .at least in terms of sorting through Gresham law principles which exist whether you believe in them or not or even whether you advocate for them or not.


King daddy likely gives few shits about calendar year dynamics, even though sure there could be some of these kinds of short-term affects on BTC price.. .. which yeah I seem to largely be saying the same things as you OOM.


Who would-a thunk?

Your post comes off as a bit scaremongery... reminds me of the panic now, omg,  emoji..

If you had not thought about it, you can also talk about those kinds of ideas in this thread or even create another thread on this forum for such topics.. rather than referring forum members to an outside group... or even to refer to some group that might have some potentially questionable OPsec issues.

I am not going to deny that substantively "claw back" could be an issue for some Celsius account holders who might have withdrew relatively large amounts of BTC (or other crypto  - shitcoins or cash)..  In that regard, the bigger of a player that such Celsius account holder would have been, then the more potential that such larger withdrawals could be subject to claw back... and on a personal level, I believe it would be way better to have had withdrawn from Celsius.. even if potentially subject to receiving some kind of a clawback notice or even a legal document.. rather than to have not have had withdrawn and to have my coins stuck in bankruptcy proceedings.

The clawback issue is not as BIG of a deal (depending on personal details.. ) as having funds that are currently not able to be withdrawn because of bankruptcy proceedings.

Also, consider where you are at?  How easy is it to serve you with notice?  and how likely will you be pursued?  consider your behavior and how you had withdrawn.. was it less than $10k less than $100k more than a $1million?.. was it right before they shut off withdrawals or more than a month beforehand?  You are not necessarily engaging in strange behaviors if you are acting like a regular client, but of course details could make a difference in regards to whether they would actually even serve you clawback notice or even go to the next step of pursuing your legally in order to claw back however much that you may have ended up withdrawing before or as the Celsius scammening ship was sinking... and I am not going to even assume that you were enlightened in your withdrawal .. since you had been considering that it was a good idea to be earning yield on your money.. was it dollars? bitcoin? or some shitcoin(s)?

That seems completely reasonable since it is ONLY about a 4.44444444x price appreciation from here abouts...


Just don't sell all of my lil precious... or any more than 4.44444444%, give or take.


this is not financial advice... even though it is. 


I suppose that I just have some difficulties appreciating the various descriptions tied to potential "what if" scenarios.. even though i don't really mind considering whether we might be going up or down from here... but still a matter of framing, I suppose.

Surely we can look at the charts and we can see that BTC prices dropped below $18k-ish on November 9/10th -ish and have not really returned above $18k... so do we have enough momentum to continue up or not?  I am not sure, and even if the BTC price does not go up from here (in the short term), I likely continue to have difficulties calling what movement we have gotten so far as a "trap" even though effectively it is accurate to label such a inability to continue up as a "trap".. especially if there were to end up being correction rather than flat from here.

Maybe a lot of the details do not really matter so much to me..?  Whatever whatever whatever.. because in some sense from my thinking, we have m mostly been bouncing around in unprecedented sub 200-week moving average prices since about mid-June - so for right around 6 months.. and so we have continued to have ongoing and continued degrees of staying below the 200-week moving average - and up to 36% below the 200-week moving average.

Do I consider the various degrees regarding how far we are below the 200-week moving average as noise that is difficult to accept as a significant and material framing?  I am not sure.  I am not really even proclaiming that the bottom is not in.. yet.. still how much can I care about if we happen to be 10% below the 200-week moving average 20% below, 40% below or some other number, even though less is better in this case... even while just continuing to deal with it.. and yeah.. maybe some framing might be helpful but it is just not really sinking in for me... in terms of how much to worry about how far we might happen to be below the 200-week moving average.... it is like depressing.. but still way better than 2015, at least for me... even though technically it is worse... so what am I going to say?  besides fuck the technicals?

On a personal level, I had been considering various ways in which I can attempt to account for some of my ideas regarding how to calculate bottoms and how to consider budget management which considering  bottom potentialities, and then maybe at the same time, if the BTC price goes up, does the bottom issue go away?  Maybe not.  maybe we are still going to be facing some of these kinds of below the 200-week moving average considerations in the future, and some of us (including yours truly) might need to consider another indicator, such as the 300-week moving average.. but there is way more information that has been developed about the 200-week moving average rather than about the 300-week moving average.  who wants to go to the 300-week moving average, unless we have to and unless this is not just ending up to be a one-time situation.. but knowing bitcoin (to the extent that such a thing is even possible).. maybe there continues to be some needs to account for extremes that go beyond previous extremes.  Perhaps?  perhaps?

So call me non-cooperative if you must.. ..

Sneaker talk observer.


You might need to go to Bitcoin education training, BountyProgram.. .. and your user-name does not really help, either.. it's like a beggar name..

In other words, that (those) tree(s) is (are) not really bitcoin... .. .looks like an shitcoin or a "crypto" tree.. .. not that I am claiming to know what the fuck "crypto" is.


Whoaza!!!!!

speaking of hung.... I would like to hang out with you more.    



For some reason that above link is not working..

So is this the content that was meant to be linkable in that above "status" reference?

https://twitter.com/RepTomEmmer/status/1602678073261948930?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

... and I am thinking that surely there may well be some negative fallout in Gensler's direction in regards to some of the interactions that Gensler had with Sam..

I am still finding a lot of these matters - and several of the connections to be confusing and ambiguous in regards to trying to figure out what was going on in regards to some of the ongoing higher level connections that seemed to have existed right from the start of FTX.. and how FTX and Sam was working those higher-level connections from the start of FTX.. (3 years or more, no?.. high level sponsorships - like advertising on sports arenas.. etc.. early on too.. )  A lot of weirdness still unraveling.


You are as clear as mud.

justsaying.

Yep.. there is so much of these kinds of matters that are really strange in and of themselves, and even playing out strange in a live way, as we continue to learn more and more details that don't add up in one direction or another - so in that regard, it could take quite a bit of time to see some of the connections.. and maybe to find out if some other folks might end sharing in some of the blame - because even though it seems that Sam had a lot of dirt on his hands, it is still hard to believe that he would be responsible for all of the fraud and other illegal behaviors - and there may even be some connection in which Caroline was counseled to cooperate - but who knows.. she is likely NOT free from wrong-doing either - even though sometimes cooperation-agreements will end up providing immunity to some smaller fish because the prosecutors are aiming to go after BIGGER fish - and really would Sam be the BIGGEST fish in this?  perhaps?  ....and who is going to be able to know if there might not be other agencies that might want to get involved.. or maybe we likely will find out that there is going to be some frustrations that come out from discoveries that will likely continue to be unravelled through the bankruptcy proceedings... for example, some folks are NOT talking in regards to relationships that they had with FTX, Genesis or some of the related entities, but bankruptcy proceedings are showing that some of the folks had financial encumbrances - and that may well end up leading to further investigations regarding why some other previously (private or unknown) entities/individuals had financial encumbrances that were connected to the various players.. and do we really believe that property transactions are going to be allowed to stand, even if some of those might have been funds (loans?) that were transferred to others. 

Claw back.  follow the money?  And there was a lot of money?  did that money just disappear?  Some of that money did just disappear because it was fake. just made up.. it did not exist except on paper (or an inflated token).. but other money was actually transferred into real assets.. that's part of the explanation regarding why they had no bitcoin, hardly any stable coins.. just a bunch of shitcoins that were hardly liquid.. and then there still will be questions regarding whether there is any value there?  was there value at one time? did some real value actually get transferred to people or entities whether in the form of a loan or a payment for goods/services?  any weird connections regarding how the finances were carried out?  Of course, there were some weird connections.. but how does several $billion get spent?  When the value is real.. and based on actual deposits, it has to go somewhere, no?  We have quite a bit of failure/refusal to create records, and then there seems to have been a quite a bit of record destruction too.. which seems to have had been part of the rationale for the hacks.


He likely did not realize how dumb he was being in regards to some of his "talking tours."


That seems to be part of the strangeness in which Sam actually seems to know that he could not do certain things.. but at the same time, did the things that he said that he could not do.. He is not a very sympathetic character, even if he thought that his "speaking out tour" might cause folks to become more sympathetic to him. 

I wanted to mention that there were so many reporters, politicians and even persons of influence who were speaking sympathetic towards him for a long time, and I would imagine that sentiment is going to change at some point.. or at least it should.  I would think that some of those folks are going to want to create some distance from Sam.. even though they had been praising him so much in the past year or so.... which is just so weird, given the extent to which Sam should have been realized as a phony and his level of phoniness is really starting to show itself which seems as if it would force a lot of the reporters, politicians and persons of influence to back off on their bullshit backing of him.. and even that bullshit in which they took it upon themselves to donate funds that they received from Sam/FTX - as if they were exempt from clawbacks, those fucks. .. .let the claw backs begin.. and it does not even matter which party received that FTX/Sam money (buying of influence or whatever the fuck sam/FTX was doing with client funds).. . .or even if supposedly the received funds are donating to good causes , such as saving babies.. blah blah blah, if Sam/FTX gave them the money, that needs to go back to the bankruptcy estate in order that it can be properly distributed to creditors.

Fuck Vitalik.. that scammer.  Don't know why you felt some kind of a need/desire/compunction to mention that largely bitcoin-naysaying, shitcoin pumpenings, ponzi-scheme promoting, reality-distorting/denying dweeb.


Great.. at least you were able to get back to the topic.

Well, I read your questions as if they might be attempts to figure out how my approach might be repeatable and generally applicable rather than just lucky in terms of my application to bitcoin in a way that just happened to end up paying off for me but might not be repeatable for others, and sure those are fair inquiry areas.

For sure one of the underlying assumptions might concern whether bitcoin remains as good of an investment as it was in its earlier times 2013-2017 (when I was building my bitcoin investment portfolio base).  And, surely opinions can differ in regards to whether any of us might consider bitcoin to have a sufficiently strong investment thesis today as compared with its investment thesis in 2013-2017 - and surely I believe bitcoin has just as strong of an investment thesis today as it did in 2013-2017, even if the upside potential is likely not as strong, relatively speaking.. but also its downside potential seems to be weaker today too.. as compared to 2013-2017.  Bitcoin has overcome some of the questions to challenge its resilience... and abilities to withstand attacks.. and for sure attacks upon bitcoin are ongoing, even if such attacks are coming from different angles, from different players and with different relative strength.. which still gets us back to questions about whether you individually have enough confidence to buy/accumulate bitcoin and then to maintain a bitcoin investment portfolio that might retain a relatively high allocation to bitcoin.  Those are questions that you have to answer for yourself.

Books could be written in response to answering your questions, because there surely are a decent amount of assessment of individual circumstances in order to figure out how much risk that any of us is willing to tolerate or the various other individual assessments including cashflow, timeline and view of bitcoin as compared to view of other assets. ...

>>>When you've taken risks how did you cap limits? <<<<
So there might also be a bit of randomness too.. and if you already have other investments, you may well consider the matter differently from a situation in which you are just starting to invest and you do not have any other investments (just bitcoin and cash).  When I first got into bitcoin in late 2013, I had a 6 month budget and the amount that I authorized was my cap.. it was based on how much cash I had available and also how much cashflow I expected to have for the next 6 months.. but it also was not considered within a vacuum.. because the amount that I chose was based on an assessment of how much I had invested in other assets.  At the end of the first 6 months, I largely allocated for another 6 months based on largely a similar amount that I had authorized for the first 6 months.. so the second 6 months was largely a doubling down.. and that was my cap for the next 6 months.

I feel like I have already said these things.. and maybe your questions about why cannot really be answered because I can say what I did.. and cannot really answer the why exactly beyond just saying that I accounted for all of what I believed to be my individual financial and psychological circumstances, so by the time I got to the end of 1 year investing into bitcoin, I felt that I had to reconsider what my amount invested into bitcoin should be... and to come to the conclusion that I believed that it should be around 10% - which was largely the amount that I had then accomplished.. but like I said.. I ended up going over that amount in the following year to get up to 13.5%-ish.

>>>>If you didn't reallocate your BTC portfolio it's worked for you, it doesn't mean it's advised to behave as it today. <<<<

Maybe those kinds of questions cannot be answered the same for everyone, even though I believe that I did the right thing for me, and I believe that I would do the same thing over again, if I were faced with the same questions today..   As I already mentioned, part of my motivation has to do with the totality of my non-bitcoin investment was sufficient enough to sustain me at the standard of living that I was already used to.. so.. even if my BTC was growing.. I felt that there was enough in my other non-bitcoin investment to sustain myself.. so yes.. maybe you believe it would be more prudent to sell off or to reallocate back to the original levels... but I found no reason to do that.

 >>>>Your BTC investments were successful, innumerable bitcoin purchasers weren't.<<<<

Maybe some folks sold too much too soon?  Maybe they did not know what they had?  Maybe they could have just held through the cycles?  The people who mostly held through the bitcoin cycles have tended to profit quite greatly over the years, and the longer that they are in the more likely that they are in profits.  Of course, there are ways to attempt to continue to buy along the way too.. and maybe some folks would not fare as well if they blew all their wadd at the top of 2017.. and then they just sat on their hands for the past 5 years.  They might still have $19k BTC costs because they did not do shit for 5 years except for sit on an investment in which they were lacking foresight and buying at the top without taking actions along the way.. because even if someone started buying 5 years ago at the 2017 top, right now they would still likely be significantly in profits, as compared to some hypothetical (not a very likely person) who bought at the top and just sat on their hands and now is whining because they are not in profits.  

Let's look specifically, a person who started buying $100 worth of BTC per week for the past 5 years, would have invested about $26,100, and would have accumulated about 2.3561 BTC   - clearly more BTC than the person who would have bought 26,100 worth of BTC in 2017 when BTC prices at $19k.. that lump sum person would only currently have 1.37368 BTC.

It seems to me that there are ways to be smart, prudent and not overly greedy while attempting to manage an investment such as bitcoin in a way that is not psychologically burdensome, but is still sufficiently aggressive in order to be able to profit after 4-10 years of investment .. and of course, if your timeline is longer than 4-10 years, then you are even more likely to profit from your prudent aggressiveness that is not overly aggressive and not overly greedy.

Right now.  Where else are you going to put your money?  Even one year ago?  how would you know that the BTC price was going to go down; however, once the BTC price did go down, then you have to decide from the price point in which you find yourself having to make the decision rather than looking back at the matter or imagining some kind of place that is not where you are at.

I think that my point has always been to error on the side of BTC accumulation and attempting to maintain a large portion of your BTC holdings, even though sure sometimes the overall value had gone down dramatically.. but when you are in the middle of the BTC price going down,  you do not know that it is going to continue to go down.. and so you may well be way better off in the long run if you do not try to guess. and yu just continue to error on the side of BTC accumulation.. until you get to such a point that you have a pretty good sense that part of your BTC is in profits and you want to shave some off on the way up.. rather than shaving off BTC on the way down or trying to guess about if you might profit by selling and buying more.. because you may well screw that up, so it seems to have been an ongoingly better practice to accumulate and to continue to accumulate until you get to a decently large stash (relative to your situation) and then you can shave off profits as the BTC price goes up.. and in the event that BTC prices go up, even while you are still able to recognize and appreciate that you are not guaranteed that BTC prices are going to go up.

>>>>>> How did you use indexes to limit risks?<<<<<<

Using Index funds might have partially been a product of not really knowing - while at the same time, taking advantage of something that is available.  Many 401ks have a variety of index funds as options, and sometimes there is no real ability to invest in individual stocks for regular people without going through some kind of a broker.. so there is some convenience to going with what is available... and considered to be low cost ways to get exposure to some kind of an investment over a long period of time.  

These days there are more options.. but normal people could still get lured into shitcoins because those shitcoins are available and even seem to be relatively low fees and it is not necessarily easy to invest in other areas.. even though bitcoin and shitcoins may well be inspiring some traditional investments to expand their offerings and to be more available to normal people without having to go through a money manager and without necessarily having to pay high fees...

In some sense, my situation would be different from someone coming into investing today, since bitcoin is currently available... so I had largely built my various traditional investments with some of the more limited products that were available.. including largely erroring on the side of index funds... even though surely sometimes there can be ways to attempt to choose your own kinds of stocks through some services that would have still been available 20 years ago.. but I ONLY limitedly dabbled in trying to figure out if there might be some specific stocks that I could buy and instead just did the lazy (dumb) person's way to choose index funds.


What the fuck are you talking about?  I thought that I had already sufficiently explained this.  If I had a lifestyle and an income in which I had grown accustomed to a certain standard of living, and let's say that I had been used to living off of $3k per month ($24k per year), and at that point I had been investing 10% of my income into something (doesn't really matter what it is.. it can be bitcoin or whatever it was that I had chosen to compose of my then investment portfolio), so that would be $300 per month.  And, if all of a sudden my income doubles, and it goes up to $6k per month.  All of a sudden, I have $3k per month more.  So I could decide to invest half of my income into my investment portfolio each month instead of 10%, and my standard of living would not change, because I still had the $3k per month that I could use for my regular living expenses.  

Part of the dilemma that anyone has concerns how much to invest versus consume when income or cashflow goes up or maybe even if expenses go down, so such person is not necessarily increasingly burdened to be investing more money merely because the available amount of money has gone up.  .. It seems to me that the problems would more likely come if more money is allocated to investing even though the income has not actually gone up... or if there comes times in which a person might go into debt or even push limits regarding how much to invest because s/he is relying on the investment value to go up in order to service debt or to pay for expenses that should not have been entered into because s/he was overly investing or failed to account for his/her expenses and/or failed to actually establish and maintain a sufficient/adequate emergency fund.


Something is wrong with your assessment - because when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, it took more than 3 years for my first BTC purchase to become profitable... So I bought my first BTC at $1,200 in November/December 2013 and the BTC price did not get consistently over $1,200 until April 2017.. so that is close to 3.5 years... but I was not complaining of whining about my BTC being in the negative... instead I continued to buy BTC through that whole time, so by the time April 2017 came, my average BTC cost was less than $500 per BTC.. and of course, I had some other issues during that time too.. . but the punchline is that anyone coming into BTC with a long enough investment timeline of 4-10 years or more, should not be getting worked up if his/her BTC holdings happen to be in profits or not, but instead perhaps recognizing, understanding and appreciating some of the value in terms of being able to continue to accumulate BTC and to bring down his/her average cost per BTC with each purchase. especially if the BTC price is 50% or even 75% lower than the price of some of his/her earlier BTC purchases.

I doubt that overly worrying or considering whether the current BTC holdings are currently in profits is a very healthy perspective in regards to investing in BTC or planning to hold BTC for the long term, and surely it could be that BTC is not the right investment or even a very suitable investment for some folks who have not figured out some financial and psychological strategies in which they are able to consider how to plan to take advantage of lower BTC prices without engaging in gambling behaviors.

If investors bought at $40k and then they sold below $40k or even down in the $17k or sub $20k, then good riddance to them.  They are dumb, and they likely over-invested..  

None of us can stop people from being dumb and from losing money on their investments. including investing into BTC.. including investing money that they need in the short term.. and yeah.. maybe they should have ONLY invested $10 per week rather than $100 per week. or maybe they should have DCA invested rather than lump sum invested.

When people ask me about bitcoin, I frequently tell people to get started right away.. and I give little shits if the BTC price is $69k or $17k.. even though it seems that it would be better to get started now, but people who invest into bitcoin have to figure out some kind of an investment strategy that works for them, even if they started investing into bitcoin at $69k in November 2021.. Hopefully they did not put their life savings in at that price, and if they did, then they may well have to wait a long before they are able to get into profits.. and what can we say when people do dumb things, and they ONLY plan for the BTC price to go up or to go sideways or to ONLY go so far down.. but then bitcoin goes further down then their expectations and they have no plan for that?  What can we do?  Feel sorry for them for being dumb?  Feel sorry for them for overinvesting?  Feel sorry for them for not preparing (psychologically or financially) for down?  What?  

I am not going to take back my advice (or suggestion) for people to get started right away.. and each person is responsible for their own actions.. in terms of how much they invest and how they make their various preparations.  For sure I am not suggesting for anyone to invest in shitcoins, even if there might be some shitcoins that might perform better than bitcoin in the short term.  I am ONLY talking about investing time and money and psychology into bitcoin, and each person is responsible for themselves in terms of how they go about making those various investments.. even though I might be willing to help them out in various ways if they are really in need of help... perhaps I will?  but I am not going to take responsible for their choice to invest, even if I said to get the fuck started right away.  If I were their money manager, then maybe it would be a different story?  If I could see that they were doing dumb things like leaving a bunch of money on exchanges, I would tell them that was not what I was suggesting for them to do.. because it can take many years to really learn the specifics about how to invest into bitcoin and how to manage various personal risks when it comes to bitcoin, and I am not responsible for what others do, even if I tell them to get the fuck started as soon as possible.  Don't wait, but you are still responsible for any action that you take, even though I am saying to act sooner rather than later.  What a bunch of contradictions, no?


I was making the point that it takes years to learn better techniques, but anyone has the capacities to figure out ways to manage their cashflows... No one should be investing with money that they need for living expenses, so before they even invest into anything (whether BTC or otherwise), they need to figure out their own budget, including how much extra that they have.  Are they able to spare $10 per week or $100 per week, or $1000 per week or some other amount.. If they have cashflows and cash management that is so screwed up that they cannot even figure it out, then likely they need to get their cashflow in order before they do anything..

and I am not even saying that anyone for sure has to wait to invest into bitcoin because some people might know that their cashflow is messed up and they are not sure because some months they have an extra $3k that they could spend, and there are other months that they are $3k in the negative, so their cashflows are erratic.... So some of those folks still might be able to make some ballpark considerations that they are able to start investing into bitcoin and to figure out their cashflow particulars as they go.. but if they start to invest into bitcoin, an they do not get their shit together, then they may well end up putting themselves into a position in which they have to sell their bitcoin at a time that is other than completely their own choosing.


Of course, investing into bitcoin is risky.. And walking out of the house each day is risky too.  There are all kinds of risks in life, and there are a lot of ways to engage in practices that mitigate various kinds of risks and/or to offset risks.  

Actually, right around the first 6-8 months that I was into bitcoin and I was learning about bitcoin, I did not really tell anyone about bitcoin, however, starting in about mid-to late 2014, I started to tell people about bitcoin (friends, relatives, acquaintances), and to suggest that they look into bitcoin and maybe do something similar to what I had been doing in terms of investing a portion of their income into bitcoin. So many of those people would be way better off right now, if they had just invested a modest amount into bitcoin, such as $50 per week.  They would have invested right around $22k and would have accumulated right around 20 BTC. Anyone going to complain about those levels of returns of merely investing $50 per week over the past 8.5 years?    

What I am saying that managing and/or modifying risk does not necessarily suggest that a person should stay out of an investment, such as bitcoin, but instead may well suggest that the person figures out the size of the investment that is comfortable enough for him/her at such a level that feels sufficiently aggressive, without necessarily being overly-aggressive.


I am not telling anyone to trade.  I am saying get the fuck started.. and then accumulating BTC and to figure out how much is a good position size an then the build up towards that BTC position size in a way that is comfortable.. which largely from my perspective is a buy only strategy... so figure out various ways of buying and continue to study bitcoin along the way.. and if at some point, the person wants to go beyond buying strategies, then that is on them to figure out how to manage those kinds of practices.

Sure, I mentioned that I sell BTC on the way up and buy on the way down... but that surely is not any kind of a base investment case, because a person needs to get to a point in which s/he is sufficiently and adequately allocated (and perhaps even overly allocated) into bitcoin before it makes any sense to sell any BTC.  So my first couple of years in bitcoin, I did not sell any.. except to sell and replace.. or replace within a few days if I did sell some or use any BTC to transact.  

I later considered adding some formulas for selling on the way up, but those are in no way base case ways to accumulate bitcoin but instead volatility insurance plans.. but they are likely not even a good practice until someone has been in bitcoin for a sufficiently long enough time to accumulate a decent amount of stash, to potentially be over-allocated and/or to have some or all of his/her BTC stash in profits.  

I don't consider myself as a trader, and I don't suggest selling BTC as a means to attempt to accumulate more BTC... especially not as beginning strategies and especially not as base strategies absent potentially meeting a variety of conditions in which there might be some practicalities for a newbie to consider selling some BTC on the way up (or in some other situation) with expectations of buying back at lower prices, but it is surely not even close to any part of a base case for ways that I would suggest to get into bitcoin and to establish 4-10 years or longer investment strategies and practices.


Your use of the term "resistance" is confusing wmaurik.

When we are talking about the difficulties of the BTC price to go down, we are referring to "support" (not "resistance'),  and when we are referring to the difficulties of the BTC price to go up, then that is when we use the term "resistance.".. so price sticking points is referred to as "support" on the way down and "resistance" on the way up.

I agree that frequently we need to attempt to be skeptical about what we are being told and the timing of matters, because it is likely to have been preferable to get testimony first, even if the testimony would have been by video - but that the same time, there could be some fast moving concerns, as well in regards to flight risk and even we might have to be skeptical regarding the extent to which the Bahamian government is actually cooperating rather than covering things up.. because if you recall there was evidence of FTX funds moving around and being anonymized and mixed (and fees being paid) which would have caused for a reasonable inference that those movements were happening from an entity that wanted to remain secret.. and then the Bahamian government claimed that it was them moving the funds.. which does not add up.

Another thing that does not add up is that some of the supposed responsible persons in the USA who had received FTX "donations" within a short time prior to the bankrupcy proceedings were announcing that they were "donating those funds to good causes" rather than returning those funds to the FTX bancrupcy proceedings.. which would be illegal to actually engage in that kind of conduct..

So my point is that there seems to be shenanigans at high levels that does not really add up...

.. but anyhow getting back to the timing of the arrest and the cooperation matter, I thought that there was an article that came out that asserted that Sam had said that he was not going to cooperate.. so initially he was going to cooperate, then he was not, and then he was and then the latest was that he was not going to cooperate.. (as stated in this article that was initially published about an hour before his arrest)  so maybe the latest break-down in his willingness to cooperate to testify might have contributed to the decision to arrest him sooner rather than later.

Of course, that is the unedited draft - which was probably not meant to be released.. because they have an edited version that supposedly says something that we are all going to understand.

Whether he edits it down to a shorter period or leaves the long struggling version will likely NOT help our understanding and/or inspire our confidence, will it?

He seems to recognize and appreciate that the Banks have been creating too much money.. so I suppose that the punchline that you are getting at Guachapin, is that he is admitting that there is a creation that it is not really based on anything - even though they are accounting for it... by putting a liability on their ledger to show that they printed money, and someone who received the money is supposed to pay them back.

Let's say that you and I go out to eat a steak dinner, and it cost around $240.. and maybe there is some other stuff in there too... and then I tell you that I forgot my wallet, but I don't mind paying you back over then next 12 months.... if you don't mind picking up the tab... So my portion is $120, so I agree that I will pay you back at a rate of $10 per month, and I am going to add $1 for the interest... so after 12 months, you will end up receiving all of the principle. .plus an additional $12... You will receive $132, and you are willing to agree to those payment terms.  Between you and I, we have created $120.. and I suppose that as I pay it back, then we have resolved that creation, unless maybe I tell you that I am going to balloon pay the loan at the end of 12 months, rather than pay you on a monthly basis, so at the end of 12 months, I am going to owe you $132.. that is ($120 principle plus $12 interest)... If I don't pay you back at the end of 12 months, and I ask you if you are willing to lend me $132 for another 12 months on the same terms, which would mean that after another 12 months, then I would owe you $145.20.. which would represent the principle of $132 plus the $13.2 of interest.  Then we will not have had resolved that debt matter, but if you know that I am good for it, you might still be willing to roll over my debt... and so our money creation would end up lasting 2 years.. . and if we resolve it the next year, then I suppose at that point, all is good... but we have governments that are not able to pay their debts, but since they are the ones who create the money, they just keep rolling it over, and it gets to the point that they are not even able to pay the interest on the debt.


This forum does not seem to be so pathetic as to stop you from posting images....

However, you seem to be so pathetic as to be remaining a no coiner who is hanging out with coiners.

Have you improved upon your actual patheticness status, rather than complaining about things that are NOT actually a problem?