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OT: Greizmann! What a show.
micg: interesting quotes...
That r/K "discussion" is mostly rubbish:
1. It only works at a species OR even higher level (fish vs mammals, for example), NOT at the level of individual families.
2. Just one example: Benjamin Franklin had 16 brothers and sisters, yet he was a very distinguished individual, no doubt.
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Thanks for sharing, very interesting article, merit to you. Sure, I also thought that author (who is an elite programmer) described it all very succinctly. |
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If you have 10BTC, you are a Sat billionaire.
funny...Circle OTC trade is $100K minimum, which is almost exactly 10 btc. I wonder if there is a realization that each trade might constitute many $$ millions (if not a cool bil) later on. |
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PR is not a country and as Jbreher said not tax free for Crypto,
While true, if you enter into contract with PR gov under Act 20 or 22, there are huge tax advantages - crypto or not. Agreed. I spent a few weeks living in San Juan deciding if it would be worth it living there half the year to get the tax savings. I eventually decided against it, but its a tempting proposition. it would be twice as tempting if CGT would go to 39.6%. However, I am tempted to not sell at all and leave the tax question to my putative descendants. Oh, btw, the Secure act in US (if Senate takes it) would mean that your kids and/or grandkinds would have to spend your unspent 401K and IRA in just 10 years. Their possible reaction:"Weeeee...free money!" |
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...
The consolidation might take a bit longer ...
Interesting find, mindrust. But ATH before halving is impossible, isn't it? So I would extend everything on the time axis. Nice catch, that's why I said, it would take a bit longer. That's the only concern I have here. filbfilb (some TA god) on the other hand also said this bull run might develop earlier than we all guessed so who knows. *He said it, because we exactly know what happens after the halving, so,,, many of us will start accumulating a lot earlier than the halving date (if already haven't started),,, means, it might rocket a lot earlier. We weren't so sure about this in 2017. (I wasn't) Yeah, sooner/later isn't as relevant as the peak and subsequent drop. If you're into EW jazz that wave could end up being III of a 5 wave run-up culminating with a 300k+/- peak around end of 2021. I have a slightly different long term scenario. BTC rises to 55-60K during this bull, perhaps 350K in the next, but then succumbs to a long term bear market. Maybe it would coincide with economic decline, maybe not, but these neat halving-induced bumps would stop (or be diminished) at some point. The timing of bear market would depend on when we will reach the mid term peak, which would be around 300-400K in the best case scenario, IMHO. |
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June 11 2017, first time we hit the MM 2.5 after a long break of ~3.5 years since the Gox crash. On June 26 2019, we again went above 2.5 MM since January 9 2018. After ~1.5 years. The consolidation might take a bit longer but, sooner or later, if things go like we all expect, more or less, the chart will look like this.  We are getting closer, to the endgame. Maybe, but timewise you are are projecting it to happen too fast. On your graph note a jump from 450 to around 850 (in 2016)...this happened at prior halving. If halvings are the engine, we might be range bound at least until May of 2020. On the other hand, if halvings would have only minor influence from now on and we discount them earlier, THEN you might be right. |
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3. The way they truly get you is by taxing gains, but allowing only $3000 per year in losses. This way, you could be in a situation where you pay large gains one year, but are allowed only limited recourse (3K) when you have a large loss. I find this very unfair.
Yes, but any losses that exceed $3K you can roll over YoY. True, but it is still a limitation as there is no such limit on gains. It is what it is. |
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Things are becoming more and more chaotic.
My preference would be for flat equities and for bitcoin to appreciate against this background.
It does not look this way at the moment.
Dow is actually below its Jan 22, 2018 value, some bull market we have. Oh, well.
I am still of the opinion that bitcoin needs at least a flat market to grow.
If stocks would get seriously smashed, btc would decline as well, at least initially.
Carney's libra-like ideas are meaningless without multiple major countries backing it and I don't see anyone even acknowledging it (so far).
You are surely coming off as a weak hand, Biodom.... like you are easily scared into doing something crazy, like selling on the way down (or worse at the bottom)...  you are projecting...I am hodling btc, selling a bit of equities (including GLD, which was just a profitable trade). I will sell some, though, if Biden would look like winning. I paid 39.6 % before during a good year in the internet "bubble" and it was brutal. Some people don't know these facts, but for US citizens there are two-three relevant rules: 1. If you have capital gains, you pay 15-20% for long term (more than 12 mo) plus additional 3.8% (NIIT) on gains when you have above 200K AGI and up to maximum rate (37%) for short term trades. Biden suggests that we should pay up to max tax on ALL trades, long or short. Maximum is 37% plus, maybe 3.8=40.8%. 2. It does not matter where your address is, as US citizen, you are still responsible for these taxes. The only exception is Puerto-Rico, but you have to actually LIVE there 183 days each year. 3. The way they truly get you is by taxing gains, but allowing only $3000 per year in losses. This way, you could be in a situation where you pay large gains one year, but are allowed only limited recourse (3K) when you have a large loss. I find this very unfair. |
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In the meantime it's looking like a good time to drop gold you hold and not bitcoins.
Cool time to be alive.
I don't mind gold going up as it increases the value we can eventually take via wealth transfer from gold toward bitcoin (from the old to the new). However, everybody was predicting a retrace of 1300-1350. Instead, gold ripped up (for now) |
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Things are becoming more and more chaotic.
My preference would be for flat equities and for bitcoin to appreciate against this background.
It does not look this way at the moment.
Dow is actually below its Jan 22, 2018 value, some bull market we have. Oh, well.
I am still of the opinion that bitcoin needs at least a flat market to grow.
If stocks would get seriously smashed, btc would decline as well, at least initially.
Carney's libra-like ideas are meaningless without multiple major countries backing it and I don't see anyone even acknowledging it (so far).
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A theory:
Funds got so infatuated with planB analysis (see his twitter) that they are smacking down btc every time it tries to rally much from the 'theoretical' 8-9K. At some point they will stop; maybe in a month (as HM suggests) or in 6-9mo OR anywhere in between.
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[edited out]
Unlikely. Not that I care much, but you underestimate the ability of Wall Street to create a rush to some token in a true bull market. Some zombies might revive and some will join the fray. Why? Because there is a certain group of investors who harp on POW and think that POS will allow them to "earn" interest. I don't see how btc can truly earn interest, apart from questionable re-hypothecation schemes (in which I don't partake). I don't see how in my earlier post, I am making any kind of "estimation" of the power of wall street that significantly or materially differs from your estimations of the powers (abilities) of wall street. You are agreeing with the opinion that ONLY some unclear tokenization (how loan tokenization creates any value whatsoever-a rhetorical question) and new btc forks (lol) would create significant market cap value. There are better candidates. |
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I think there will be alts with big dominance:
• USD stable coins
• Tokenised loans paying interest
• Tokenised bitcoin futures
• New attempts at the “next Bitcoin” including more Bitcoin forks
Basically a plethora of exotic financial instruments and derivatives. No ICO shit. That stuff is dead.
What he (hairy) said. Unlikely. Not that I care much, but you underestimate the ability of Wall Street to create a rush to some token in a true bull market. Some zombies might revive and some will join the fray. Why? Because there is a certain group of investors who harp on POW and think that POS will allow them to "earn" interest. However, the only way btc goes from 10.8K to 29K in 6mo and STILL loses up to 30% of dominance would mean top three-five alts quadrupling to quintupling in the same 6mo. IMHO, it's not going to happen. I don't see how btc can truly earn interest, apart from questionable re-hypothecation schemes (in which I don't partake). |
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Those who don't have Bitcoin in any real amount, think about SEX.
Those who have bitcoin have no need to think about bitcoin. So they have sex. The question was not about "having", it was about thinking  BTW, IRL general population, females are thinking/dreaming about sex much more than men (anecdotal evidence). |
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sex thinking is closing on bitcoin...oh, no.
those horny otc desks guys/gals are picking up the slack... /s
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The way I see it, if you truly believe that printing money creates wealth, than you did not get the very idea of bitcoin. Yes, you can be a trader of it, of course, which I guess many here are. Here is another question. What is the NPV of the US national debt in a negative interest rate environment?
Tell me, but I heard that NIRP has consequences: 1) compress net interest margins and bank profits;
2) damage consumer and business confidence;
3) provide little incentive for business invest in capital rather than buy back stock;
4) hurt savers;
5) makes active management more difficult by dampening dispersion;
6) increase demand for gold and other hard assets; and,
7) likely widen the wealth gap
https://www.barrons.com/articles/strategas-7-unintended-consequences-of-nirp-1465825134 |
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Hey, guys, I am sure there is a book/ebook, maybe two or three on this board (or much more): Bob, jbreher, lambieslayer, JJG, HM, micg, LFC, Searing, sorry if I missed any other candidates willing to share. Don't let alts take all the glory: https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-Crypto-Millionaire-Unlikely-Corporate-ebook/dp/B07VBS7Z5K/Yep... either he is already deluded in the event that he chose that title himself, or he is a wimpy ass fuck to allow his editor to cause such dumbass amorphous and/or meaningless term, "crypto." What the fuck is crypto? Who knows? Never wanted to write a book? I believe many should try and tell their (or some other) story. I had a lot of fun reading my grandma's and her sister's books. |
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expect large US infrastructure spends in the future. This would be enough for the US to avoid recession alone.
The US gubmint can financialize themselves any amount of currency. The problem is that those in charge confuse financializing currency with marshaling wealth. Funny thing about wealth is that it is tangible, and cannot be zapped into existence by an entry into a spreadsheet. I wouldn’t be so sure about that. HM, I am at a loss of the meaning. Money from thin air? My opinion is: garbage in-garbage out, but maybe with some delay. Personally, I believe in reality that does not involve "helicopter" money. The US$ role as global reserve currency afford the US government certain liberties, such as creating wealth from thin air. The flipside is you cannot be the global reserve currency without perpetual nominal trade deficits, something that Trump is far too dumb to understand. money printing != wealth So, they print more. How, exactly, it creates wealth? It's exactly the opposite. re nominal deficits-there I can agree. You cannot be a world's reserve currency and not run a deficit. According to classical economics, money printing != wealth on the assumption that money printing = inflation Now riddle me this. When was the last time that the USA had an inflation problem, and how much money has been printed since then? How about right now. It just went to ballooning student loans, healthcare expenses, housing prices, etc. Inflation calculators/CPI estimates are wrong, it is clear to anyone with an unbiased view. Does CPI include tariffs? No, but these are real numbers folks are paying. https://www.forbes.com/sites/perianneboring/2014/02/03/if-you-want-to-know-the-real-rate-of-inflation-dont-bother-with-the-cpi/ |
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