Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OverEasy]

...
The consolidation might take a bit longer ...

Interesting find, mindrust. But ATH before halving is impossible, isn't it? So I would extend everything on the time axis.

[Biodom]

June 11 2017, first time we hit the MM 2.5 after a long break of ~3.5 years since the Gox crash. On June 26 2019, we again went above 2.5 MM since January 9 2018. After ~1.5 years.

The consolidation might take a bit longer but, sooner or later, if things go like we all expect, more or less, the chart will look like this.



We are getting closer,

to the endgame.

Maybe, but timewise you are are projecting it to happen too fast.
On your graph note a jump from 450 to around 850 (in 2016)...this happened at prior halving.
If halvings are the engine, we might be range bound at least until May of 2020.
On the other hand, if halvings would have only minor influence from now on and we discount them earlier, THEN you might be right.

[mindrust]

...
The consolidation might take a bit longer ...

Interesting find, mindrust. But ATH before halving is impossible, isn't it? So I would extend everything on the time axis.

Nice catch, that's why I said, it would take a bit longer.

That's the only concern I have here.

filbfilb (some TA god) on the other hand also said this bull run might develop earlier than we all guessed so who knows.

*He said it, because we exactly know what happens after the halving, so,,, many of us will start accumulating a lot earlier than the halving date (if already haven't started),,, means, it might rocket a lot earlier. We weren't so sure about this in 2017. (I wasn't)

Edit: I missed something, just realized my mistake but I am too ashamed to say it, anyway we are all speculating.   I'll only tell this much, you probably should move the moon chart to the right by 5-6 months. What I said about "if things start sooner" is still valid though.

Edit2: Nope, I guess It looks fine as it is.

[Raja_MBZ]

This is what I'm seeing on BTC dominance graph:



Seriously, IF this breaks down, go get some alts to further increase your BTC stash.

[ssmc2]

...
The consolidation might take a bit longer ...

Interesting find, mindrust. But ATH before halving is impossible, isn't it? So I would extend everything on the time axis.

Nice catch, that's why I said, it would take a bit longer.

That's the only concern I have here.

filbfilb (some TA god) on the other hand also said this bull run might develop earlier than we all guessed so who knows.

*He said it, because we exactly know what happens after the halving, so,,, many of us will start accumulating a lot earlier than the halving date (if already haven't started),,, means, it might rocket a lot earlier. We weren't so sure about this in 2017. (I wasn't)

Yeah, sooner/later isn't as relevant as the peak and subsequent drop. If you're into EW jazz that wave could end up being III of a 5 wave run-up culminating with a 300k+/- peak around end of 2021.

[mindrust]

This is what I'm seeing on BTC dominance graph:

https://i.imgur.com/v08gssG.png

Seriously, IF this breaks down, go get some alts to further increase your BTC stash.

This, looks scary af. Looks like there is only one more jump left in it (to %75) and then it is a downside disaster.

[Biodom]

...
The consolidation might take a bit longer ...

Interesting find, mindrust. But ATH before halving is impossible, isn't it? So I would extend everything on the time axis.

Nice catch, that's why I said, it would take a bit longer.

That's the only concern I have here.

filbfilb (some TA god) on the other hand also said this bull run might develop earlier than we all guessed so who knows.

*He said it, because we exactly know what happens after the halving, so,,, many of us will start accumulating a lot earlier than the halving date (if already haven't started),,, means, it might rocket a lot earlier. We weren't so sure about this in 2017. (I wasn't)

Yeah, sooner/later isn't as relevant as the peak and subsequent drop. If you're into EW jazz that wave could end up being III of a 5 wave run-up culminating with a 300k+/- peak around end of 2021.

I have a slightly different long term scenario.
BTC rises to 55-60K during this bull, perhaps 350K in the next, but then succumbs to a long term bear market.
Maybe it would coincide with economic decline, maybe not, but these neat halving-induced bumps would stop (or be diminished) at some point. The timing of bear market would depend on when we will reach the mid term peak, which would be around 300-400K in the best case scenario, IMHO.

[mindrust]

We all expect and know, there will be a time in the future, Bitcoin will become just like Gold.

Lifeless, non-volatile, boring.

As long as we do these %20 daily/weekly swings, it means we still haven't gotten there.

[jbreher]

PR is not a country and as Jbreher said not tax free for Crypto,

While true, if you enter into contract with PR gov under Act 20 or 22, there are huge tax advantages - crypto or not.

[mindrust]

Check this out:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/1QSGColK-My-Secret-Chart-For-When-To-To-Buy-Bitcoin-In-A-Bullish-Trend/

Hot on tradingview lately.

[SuperTA]

Check this out:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/1QSGColK-My-Secret-Chart-For-When-To-To-Buy-Bitcoin-In-A-Bullish-Trend/

Hot on tradingview lately.

I talked about it a few days ago in this thread. I made a chart, his "secret",  9 days before him. But now it probably won't work cuz too many people will trade the same thing.

[mindrust]

Check this out:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/1QSGColK-My-Secret-Chart-For-When-To-To-Buy-Bitcoin-In-A-Bullish-Trend/

Hot on tradingview lately.

I talked about it a few days ago in this thread. I made a chart, his "secret",  9 days before him. But now it probably won't work cuz too many people will trade the same thing.

I must have missed it :/

[SuperTA]

Well nobody seemed to care cuz no one commented anything about it. But it doesn't matter cuz probably won't work anyway.

[SuperTA]

Here you go, chart date August 12

[Lambie Slayer]

My future ex Tulsi is out of the upcoming debate so Yang is the next best (ultra slim) hope for a true Crypto friendly candidate. Any tax crazy lefty gets nominated and Im team Trump. Mayor Pete I would predict is unlikely to make a major tax hike so he wouldnt be to bad for a dem nominee. Luckily after watching most of Grandpa Joe's interviews and debates I can confidently say that he has early dementia setting in fast and his brain would turn to mush in a grueling election.

More basement dwelling induced derp.

Buy Bitcoin and lose your virginity Roach, its about time ya know.

[Lambie Slayer]

Yeah no big problem, I can pickup a new language and build a new life for myself in just a week or two. Thanks buddy, what was I thinking

That’s pussyfoot talk.  If you aren’t agile, you are a sitting duck.  

Meh to me it would be pussyfooting to leave your home and people behind bc some gibbering dementia patient is trying to steal your money. I understand the agile sentiment, and I could move to another country with ease, but I dont typically look to run from problems anyway. Also some of the countries on that list look to be a few regulatory clarifications away from taxing crypto, PR is not a country and as Jbreher said not tax free for Crypto, and Liberland is a joke.

Hopefully Republicans maintain control of at least one branch and this doubling of cap gains never happens. If it does happen I would sell all coins and realize profits, pay taxes, then buy most of the coins back at a new cost basis before the law went into effect. This would alleviate a lot of the problem, then Id have to consider my options.

I would agree with your position if it was as you described. In reality however, that gibbering dementia patient is highly calculated and is stealing your money, rather than just trying to.

Lol, well I would agree with you here accept he is not President yet, so the trying means he is trying to win the election so he can facilitate said stealing.

[Lambie Slayer]

PR is not a country and as Jbreher said not tax free for Crypto,

While true, if you enter into contract with PR gov under Act 20 or 22, there are huge tax advantages - crypto or not.

Agreed. I spent a few weeks living in San Juan deciding if it would be worth it living there half the year to get the tax savings. I eventually decided against it, but its a tempting proposition.

[Lambie Slayer]

3. The way they truly get you is by taxing gains, but allowing only $3000 per year in losses. This way, you could be in a situation where you pay large gains one year, but are allowed only limited recourse (3K) when you have a large loss. I find this very unfair.

Yes, but any losses that exceed $3K you can roll over YoY.

True, but it is still a limitation as there is no such limit on gains.
It is what it is.

Gents, to provide a little clarity here, the 3k max is for deductions against regular income. So if you have a salary or wages then yes you can only roll over 3k worth of losses as deductions each year and this can be done till you die or run out of losses. But..... for capital gains you can deduct all your capital losses from prior years with no limit whatsoever. The way they fuck you is you could gain a million one year, pay taxes on it then lose a million the first day of the next year and get no refund for the taxes you paid the year prior. You would either have to make another million in capital gains to use those losses as a deduction or you would have to live 333 more years making a salary and writing off 3k each year. The tax man is a real sob. A more fair form of theft would allow you to get a refund for past taxes paid.

[Biodom]

PR is not a country and as Jbreher said not tax free for Crypto,

While true, if you enter into contract with PR gov under Act 20 or 22, there are huge tax advantages - crypto or not.

Agreed. I spent a few weeks living in San Juan deciding if it would be worth it living there half the year to get the tax savings. I eventually decided against it, but its a tempting proposition.

it would be twice as tempting if CGT would go to 39.6%.
However, I am tempted to not sell at all and leave the tax question to my putative descendants.

Oh, btw, the Secure act in US (if Senate takes it) would mean that your kids and/or grandkinds would have to spend your unspent 401K and IRA in just 10 years. Their possible reaction:"Weeeee...free money!"

[gembitz]

PR is not a country and as Jbreher said not tax free for Crypto,

While true, if you enter into contract with PR gov under Act 20 or 22, there are huge tax advantages - crypto or not.

Agreed. I spent a few weeks living in San Juan deciding if it would be worth it living there half the year to get the tax savings. I eventually decided against it, but its a tempting proposition.

moving to theymos floating island when? lel