I don't have a good feel for the future of mining. At least my S1s have provided their ROI and are still mining at a cost of about $320/BTC (cost of electricity). Will turn them off when they become unprofitable. Fun hobby that at least paid for itself, but may be best to quit while ahead  we need price rise. if btc was 1500 usd all will work. current 550 usd is not good. |
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1)you would be competing against yourself.
You are always competing with yourself, whether you add 300 PH/s or 1 GH/s to the network. That is something that won't change if you add the hash power at a slower rate. There is no advantage to adding it slower from what I can see. well at the scale of 160ph + 300ph = 460ph adding 300 ph at 1 watt per hash is quite a task. 1th = 1k-watt 1 ph = 1m-watt 300 ph = 300 megawatt building the 300 ph in mining gear is not that costly. having the cooling and the power is harder. at a certain point large scale mining gear production can be very low cost, but to run the mining gear you need access to cheap power. the Niagara Falls power plant usa + can could run 5,000 m watts that means a plant is build able but how many areas have the right setup to make a 300 m watt plant the idea that I can make gear cheaply. then add it on as I access power cheaply is not far fetched as some think. here is a link to Niagara falls power cap. http://www.niagarafrontier.com/power.html 2700 mw USA + 2300 mw CAN = 5000mw enough to run 30x the current network if we burn 1 watt per gh or 15x the current network if we burn 2 watts per gh If bitfury and bitmaintech get access to 2 cent a kwatt for power in large amounts they will build big places. Not complicated it will happen. |
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What if anything did you OC your S3's to and what have you found to run stable for you going on 7+ days so it ends up looking permanent.
I was gonna jump right in on 237.5 with mine since someone said if they can't handle that then they most likely can't do anything lower which means perma stock which right now all four of mine are stable at 218.75 ~440. Seems I got lucky and got a good batch where as some have speed issues on stock an end up having to DC insread of OC their units.
Ideally I'd like to try 250 but I hear that offers mixed results, even on good machines like mine but man would I love ~500 on all four of mine. I will try i on at least one machine to see how it works instead of OC'ing them all at the same time which some people do without seeing how on machine handles it.
But most people do seem to agree that 237.5 seems to work quite well for everyone who starts out with stable stock freq machines like me doing ~440.
On my batch 1 they sucked as they only like 212 On my batch 4 they were good at 218 then 225 then 237 bumped them to 250 they crashed and now no longer like 237 so I was doing 940 at 237 . I now do 890 at 225 |
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for all I know cex.io can run 300ph at 2 cents a watt and the hashing gear is built . along with the power plants. they just add 20 or 30 ph when they think it is proper.
that bolded thought it what keeps me going. the best case for the little guy is that above sentence is true and the 3 or 4 biggest companies are doing just that. If so they
want this to last and will not fuck it up. only time will tell.
Besides mining is more fun then looking up a btc address and a coinbase price.
No one is sitting on 100s of PHs of mining equipment and waiting to deploy them, lol. They push them out onto the network as fast as they can build them. And they're not waiting before the next difficulty adjustment to do so. That makes absolutely no sense. That's exactly the same as a home miner with 2 new S3s. "Hmm, I think I'll wait 6 days before running my new S3s. I don't want to add to the difficulty until the next adjustment." That just doesn't happen. if the network has 160ph and you have 300ph sitting in gear you would be a moron to drop the 300 ph into the network. you do not need to bring on more then 20-35 percent in 1 diff jump. If you are going to be the miner. If you want to sell it that is a different story. 1)you would be competing against yourself. 2)you would also need to build a monster power plant more costly then building the gear. 3) you would also need to cool the gear My point was building the gear lets say 300ph may be far easier then deploying the gear. Making it may cost a lot less then we realize. Big companies have larger scale capabilities then any of us realize. Bitmain tech has sold more then 14,000 s-3's in a month. Don't think they can't have made an order of 100,000 and sold it to a group. Well it is certain someone has a very big center being put on line. |
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Bitmain was better, I am not sure whats happening, they used to sell from stock and every few days they would lower the price to compensate for the increased difficulty, hopefully they did not find a map from Sam where he shows them the path, at the last days of the S1 it was selling for $180 dollars ( in btc), and I am sure the S3 only costs a little bit more to produce that the S1. KNC was good in 2013, and now they are terrible. BFL was never good. Avalon was only good in the first 2 batches, and then collapsed. Spondoolies  ? I chat all day on a lot of trollboxes/forums. You said it perfectly, I am not sure whats happening. When people would ask if there was any way to have a chance at making money I would automatically say bitmain and rattle off your reasons above. ( taking each individuals location and electric costs into consideration ). Now I say Bitmain is the best, but buying an s3 now at .66 you are mining in most cases just to have a chance at not loosing a lot. Forget ANY possible chance at ROI. This next difficulty change is, atm, a game changer for anyone purchasing today at current .66 price. ( free electricity? Well then go for it. ) A 40% diff increase is not out of the question... Given the depth of commercial mines today, a 40% increase in one adjustment is highly improbable. I am guessing the past few mild increases have more to do with hobbyists turning off their miners and no new mega deployments coming online. But it's nearly impossible to predict with any certainty what is happening as the total size of the network is now so big. It's all guesswork. but swimmer63 that is Christ {or is it just jpchrist} talking he should know all. If he say 40% we will be lucky if it is not 42 or 45%! |
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Hi BITMAIN. As you're an official representative of bitmain, may I ask you to please provide the source code for your modifications to cgminer in the form of the driver for the S3. cgminer is provided under the GPL version 3 license which means you are obliged by law to provide the source code to any modifications you do if you distribute binaries and you are distributing modified cgminer binaries with every S3. Provision of the source code would allow us to aid the development of your driver and help bring your version to sync up with the latest cgminer to derive the benefits of newer versions along with its many fixes. I will bump your request. |
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One thing it's certain, this price for batch #7 is the obvious sign that Bitmain is no longer considering the chance their customer's ROI into S3 price calculation.
That is the problem.
The reason I loved bitmain is chance to ROI, shipping from stock, previous customer incentives such as coupons, and them lowering their prices as time passed to give us at least a chance to achieve ROI.
Everything I listed above has started to change and I am a little concerned with the direction. Until Bitmain gets a competitor that is on the same level Bitmain was a month ago we might see more of this trend from bitmain. ( no coupons, increasing prices non stock etc.. )
Can hope..
Well we only see some of the picture. the industry has some serious issues on a lot of levels. right now the s-3 is the lowest cost miner available. it has no competitor. some say an sp30 but not yet not really. So the s-3 is being priced at a level just a bit higher then it should be. This will not change until a .8 watt 1 dollar 1gh piece of gear is sold to compete with the s-3. |
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@philipma1957
Your analysis are most of the time very well thought and good, but you forgot miners who can buy in bulk.
Up 50 Th in 1 go get a reasonable discount, but these whales that come into play now, build their own miners.
Which is incredible cheap to do in China.
They shipped them with pallets to their farm with low electricity costs.
The small guys who bought their gear expensive and have high electricity rates are pushed out of the mining game, which will decrease the difficulty a bit in favour of the big whales and the other small miners who have cheap electricity.
At the end these bastards take a big cut from the pie.
Even for miners with a few hundreds Terahash who don't have electricity costs below 10 cents are having tough times.
well can't disagree with you . You can't mine in Europe unless you can steal power. what makes things tough to calculate is not cheap miner availability. lots available. cheap power how much is there of it. sake of argument sp30 .6 watts is God, Allah, Jesus , King ,Queen , 'Q' (for us trekies) or any other deity Zeus Odin Thor. but lots of .8 watt gear lots of it. At .8 watts and 2 or 3 cents a k-watt making money is easy Heck I have 2 S-3's at 3.5 cents a kwatt but that is my low cost limit. What is the power limit for an iceland plant? or for a washington/oregon power plant? we know they have cheap power but how much? that availability number is not know to me… for all I know cex.io can run 300ph at 2 cents a watt and the hashing gear is built . along with the power plants. they just add 20 or 30 ph when they think it is proper.that bolded thought it what keeps me going. the best case for the little guy is that above sentence is true and the 3 or 4 biggest companies are doing just that. If so they want this to last and will not fuck it up. only time will tell. Besides mining is more fun then looking up a btc address and a coinbase price. |
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S3 sales slowing down or production ramping up?
I don't know about the production, but you can bet the sales are slowing down. Counting current diff increase trend 0.66 BTC per miner may very likely never been mined out of them. Probably expect serious BTC miner price reduction for Batch #7. Haha, wrong sir! Interesting. If it's shipped Aug 20th, it means starting mining Aug 23-25th. Type that in any calculator as a starting date with 10% difficulty increase and tell me if the miner will return 0.66 BTC. 10% difficulty increase?!? You wish man. Next one will be at least 20-25% possibly higher.... 30 mil hash came into the network right after last difficulty adjustment. I agree next difficulty will be in the 20-25% range if not higher. Also, besides the 30 mil added it looks like more then usual small network hash is getting added. The 30 mil bumped us up to 169 right after ( 7 mil more was added since that spike ) I was going to buy some more s3, but looks to me like something new is coming or private placement deal is going on withs oem big manufacturer. The price staying at .66 btc is not staying in line with bitmain customers at least having a chance to get ROI like in the past. I for one am holding off on getting any additional s3 units without a coupon ( Not happy bought 12 units and no coupons ) or a significant price reduction. right now block rate is 8.8 minutes not 10 minutes. that means 12- 14 % not close to 20%. clock the block rates if we stay at 8.8 minutes we need to increase 13.6 % to go back to 10 minutes. 8.8 x 1.136363 = about 10 . If the rumor that cex.io added a monster center in iceland is real that was the big jump. we won't add much from now on. Care to make a gentlemanly wager? No I never make bets. especially with christ |
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ANTMINER S3 Batch 7 sales open. 0.66BTC per S3 will be shipped on August 20th, shipping cost included. Oh wow, now that comes unexpected! I really was hoping for a nice price drop on Batch 7 based on current ROI calculations. That should make it pretty much impossible to sell any of these to Europe, because with a best price offer for energy in my country at 0.11 EUR ~ 0.15 USD excl. VAT = 0.13 EUR ~ 0.18 USD incl. 20% VAT it will not going to reach ROI. Which makes me want to ask, if anybody here has coupons left which he for sure is not going to use by himself and willing to donate. I'm not going to be able to get a few ants for myself under these conditions otherwise.  no you are better off using a site like gawminer.com buy the gear and let them host it. I think you avoid the vat. |
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has anyone bought their s3 through their site(using bitcoins) ? bitmaintech.com is actually down at the moment..
what site do you mean bitmaintech.com is up for me. |
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S3 sales slowing down or production ramping up?
I don't know about the production, but you can bet the sales are slowing down. Counting current diff increase trend 0.66 BTC per miner may very likely never been mined out of them. Probably expect serious BTC miner price reduction for Batch #7. Haha, wrong sir! Interesting. If it's shipped Aug 20th, it means starting mining Aug 23-25th. Type that in any calculator as a starting date with 10% difficulty increase and tell me if the miner will return 0.66 BTC. 10% difficulty increase?!? You wish man. Next one will be at least 20-25% possibly higher.... 30 mil hash came into the network right after last difficulty adjustment. I agree next difficulty will be in the 20-25% range if not higher. Also, besides the 30 mil added it looks like more then usual small network hash is getting added. The 30 mil bumped us up to 169 right after ( 7 mil more was added since that spike ) I was going to buy some more s3, but looks to me like something new is coming or private placement deal is going on withs oem big manufacturer. The price staying at .66 btc is not staying in line with bitmain customers at least having a chance to get ROI like in the past. I for one am holding off on getting any additional s3 units without a coupon ( Not happy bought 12 units and no coupons ) or a significant price reduction. right now block rate is 8.8 minutes not 10 minutes. that means 12- 14 % not close to 20%. clock the block rates if we stay at 8.8 minutes we need to increase 13.6 % to go back to 10 minutes. 8.8 x 1.136363 = about 10 . If the rumor that cex.io added a monster center in iceland is real that was the big jump. we won't add much from now on. |
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My order was transferred and I'm done with all crypto mining.
Enjoy the next 20% or 25% crippling blow to the mining difficulty increase that
is coming up next.
I have a feeling when the group buy miners start shipping and are received
that an SP30 will earn less than .1BTC per day.
If Id have just held the 20+ BTC I spent on mining gear a few months back
Id have made around 3K USD instead of JUST BARELY breaking even with
SP10s and SP30s even at a reasonable discount.
Mining for people like us with 5 or 10K to spend is just dead.
It is to the point now where buying mining gear is just burning your money.
This mining game for people like us trying to earn a little bit of profit is to
the point where buying anything at more than 20C per GH/s and using VERY
little power and maybe 100 TH/s of hashing power, there is just NO MONEY left in it.
The people selling the picks and shovels are the only ones that can ensure
they make a profit anymore.
SP-Tech staff is very helpful with the transfer and they helped me out
with the buyer to put the order into his name.
NOW, if you are going to sell your order, you honestly have NO
protection as a seller with escrow unless you very very specifically
detail the terms with the person holding funds for escrow.
I was at the mercy of the buyer 100% of the time with escrow and until
they were happy, the escrow would not release the funds. Not exactly
how I thought escrow works but that is neither here nor there. Just BE
VERY CAREFUL and ensure that you have solid terms that will protect you
when you get an email from the SPTech sales that can prove the buyer is
the new owner of the order and miner when it ships.
Per Gadi, once the order is given to them to transfer to the new buyer, they
will NOT transfer it back to your name if you are not paid.
I would suggest if the buyer insists on escrow, inform them and the
person holding escrow that once you produce an email from the sales
staff saying that the order is transferred, that meets the sellers portion
of the transaction and that funds be released. Once they do the transfer
the seller CAN NOT ask for the order back.
You can trust Gadi and Katya that if they say the order is transferred to
your name, IT WILL be in your name.
The SPTech sales system was not set up for order transfers so until
they can fix that, the order WILL NOT show up in their SPTech account.
It will still show up in yours with their name and shipping details but
THEY will own the device and order. They are trying to work out with
the Point Of Sale system to be able to transfer the order to new SPTech account
to keep the same order number and queue position after the transfer to the
new SPTech account.
Bailing may be the best thing you can do if you believe that the next jump is 20-25% you do need to bail. once it comes in at 10-12% and the next jump is 8-10 % don't feel that you were wrong to bail. |
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ANTMINER S3 Batch 7 sales open. 0.66BTC per S3 will be shipped on August 20th, shipping cost included.
No price drop...interesting. Batch one was Only 0.69 after refund. What a deal compared to the current prices! yeah with the flat diff jumps price drops are not much. but of all my s-3's the batch 1 are the slowest around 430 at freq 212 |
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reference post I am at 4488.
I started july 17 with 4060
So I am at 428 as of this post.
quote this for double reference. this is philipma1957's second account Then OP allows multiple accounts? The post limit is kind of useless then, because one can just buy or breed lots of accounts then make howsw wishe many posts he wishes. no he does not and my judypug1956 account has no signature never had one and never will. btw I updated my hero account signature. |
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okay simple math I buy 5 s-3's cost = 3.3 btc or 1930 usd I buy 2 evga 1300 psu cost = 340 usd
I am at 2270 usd for 5 x 440 = 2200 gh I burn 5 x 340 watts = 1700 watts
So 2270 usd 2200 gh 1700 watts = s-3
or 2399 usd 2000 gh 2000 watts = you
the power difference of 300 watts is about 21 usd a month if your power is 10 cents a k-watt.
So lets make your gear perfect. Lets make you honest. Lets make it ship fast and not broken.
you need to lower the price to compete with bitmaintech.
Your gear should be 1899 to 1999. That makes it priced about the exact same as bitmains s-3 once you figure the power in.
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Is anyone really earning Bitcoin? How successful are you guys with these ant miners S3s? Are you getting $200 per mouth like the mining calculator states. I would like to invest in a ant miner S3. Do you guy recommend it? Any advice?
if you: A) have a suitable psu B) have low cost power 11 cents or 12 cents C) have the internet hookup D) don't pay tax on it EU pays USA does not I believe you can make money. A breakdown on 2 at .66 or 1.32 btc with current usd price per coin of 582 and diff jumps of 15% this shows a profit I used 15% diff jumps I am predicting 10-12% . If you buy psu's buy cat 5 cables buy ethernet switches profit is tough.  |
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Yeah this jump looks like it will be larger. The network had bad luck on the last difficulty according to OoC network analysis - some larger pools up to 15% bad luck. So if we have good luck this period we might see a good 20 to 25% jump.
20-25% is just too much From https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 19,729,645,941 Estimated Next Difficulty: 22,040,551,579 (+11.71%) Block Generation Time 1 block: 9.1 minutes From http://bitcoincharts.comDifficulty 19729645941 Estimated 20913565978 in 1449 blks Blocks/hour 6.87 / 524 s the above two sites use different methods to predict. but a real key is the blocks per hour 6 per hour = 0 growth or 1 block every 10 minute = 0 growth we are in a 9-12% area at this moment which is far off from 20-25% Also remember if you are opening a huge farm like cex.io did they want to do it on the day after diff jumped. It seems that was done whatever you see now will not be as bad. I really don't see growth to be a big deal like it was. just remember gpus used around 300 watts for 1gh and were still able to earn some money as late as spring of 2013 now 2 watt gear sucks. you really want 1 watt or less. with .6 = sp30 and .75 s-3 the kings. 300 to .6 is a 500 to one increase april 2013 diff was 10,076,293 current diff is 19,729,645,941 that is 1900 to one price was about 150-240 in april so say 190 avg price now is 580 so 3 to 1 so take the 1900 divide by 3 = and the price weighted diff jump is around 633 to one that is in the ball park of the power efficiency and the price increase. I do feel new growth can not be much higher then 12-15 % for the simple reason the big money guys do the same calculations I am doing. They then decide that making a 100ph farm does not pay with current power + price ratios. |
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batch 6 is shipping I got an email from bitmaintech. nice
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reference post I am at 4488.
I started july 17 with 4060
So I am at 428 as of this post.
quote this for double reference. this is philipma1957's second account Uhm...what's that good for? this site was hacked two or three times. some accounts were hiJacked. I was selling a lot of gear. So I was afraid my main account could be attacked . At that time if you tried to fix it you needed to have a good account not a newbie account. Newbie accounts good not post to say the main account was stolen. So I made a second account. I hardly use it and have no signatures with it. It is easy to search my posts on it so I can go to it and see all my thread/posts counts for this account. saves me time. I know I post around 500 but I want to give correct numbers to stunna. |
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