If another than the one I have my money tight to, starts delivering new orders faster than the one my money is tight to, I'll cancel that order, and go for that other one. What a simple plan B, is it not?
Depends. I keep thinking that if bASIC delivers in late November or Early December and BFL does not until late December....does it make sense to go to the end of the line @ bASIC? Sure different people will come up with different ideas as to what is the right answer. I don't see it quite in black and white after thinking on it for a while. The large assumption is that bASIC could get a second batch out fast to make later orders worth while. That is an unknown at this point. So I can't figure out any easy answers as to what one should do if they are tied to the slowest/slower company. It is a bit of a pickle when you really think about it. --------------------------------- Part of me smirks a bit at the idea that BFL does delay into late December/January. It would mean they delayed 2/3 of the ASIC miners from mining. Which is absolutely fantastic if you choose the right vendor to ship first. Though, if you are stuck in the largest vendor what do you do exactly? It all depends on how fast a second batch occurs at the fastest vendor. Frankly, I don't know of any of their turn around times. Could be weeks for the second batch. Or it could be the fastest vendor over purchased just enough to cover a second batch. Even my crystal ball has lots of static when trying to figure out this puzzle of "what ifs"... I don't see any easy or clear answers. People want their rigs, not really their money. So a refund secures their funds, not necessarily their rigs. |
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Just human psychology. Once invested most people will defend their decision to do so.
Yep........ I did that with a stock purchase recently..... I could have bought 10!!!! ASIC mining rigs with the money wasted. Question: Lets say someone is a customer and they feel they want out of the waiting game. So at what point does a customer make a decision that they are definitively going to get the hardware later than they had [reasonably] hoped?? What is Plan B? ----------------------------------------------- This goes for all the other companies not just BFL. (Avalon / bASIC) At what point is it time to call it quits? A) Is it when one vendor ships and the one you ordered from is still in a holding pattern? B) Is it when there are more than 2 delays? C) Is it when the block halving has taken place? D) Is it when the mass refunds start for any one vendor? (any of the three companies) --------------------------------- Then what? What is Plan B? Do you go to one of the other competitors with your money? Do you just sit there and "suck on lemons" while you wait it out? What do you do if you do decide to abandon your first choice?What is the correct strategy at that point? |
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For me pictures did not matter at all. It is very clear from the beginning that ngzhang and his team are having access to top manufacturing facilities + their skills make them mine favorites. That is why i "bet" on them! The main difference between them and their competition is that they are "Local" which is a huge advantage. I suggest to leave them work and to loose their time with pictures and such. When they have something to share with us they will do.
I have to say, the photos of the manufacturing line is impressive. Though, I do have high confidence they will do as they say....it never hurts to ask. In this case, I think the competition will be embarrassed with what they have in comparison. Perhaps the Avalon dev team should post a thread titled: "Avalon invests heavily in high speed production equipment" --------------------------------------- Though, it is probably just a production line they have access to as opposed to actual purchases of property. Then again, if they have ready access to it locally, do they really need to purchase it? Probably not.... A question that comes to mind is where would an RMA be sent (for warranty repair)? Would it be sent to a USA address or a China address? |
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Why people feel the need to continue to repeat the same thing, over and over, I'll never understand. Great, they're going to be late, not like we haven't expected, nor known about that for a while. No reason to post up a new thread or post every 2 days shouting, "BFL is late!"
Well, only if you are speaking solely for yourself on this. Every customer of BFL is expecting them to be on time for early December. These are actual expectations. I don't know why you might think that all customers expect them to be shipping later than their current shipping target? Either way, it was a message made on 11-10-2012 and the message is referring to the process in the "future tense" rather than present or past tense. (Hasn't arrived yet?) So that leaves about 25 days from that message for outsourced assembly and maybe 5 more days for final assembly "in house". (HSF/Case etc) ----------------------------- A follow up question that pops into mind is: It is now 11-15-2012, 5 days later, have the ASIC chips arrived yet? (20 days now left for board assembly and maybe 5 days for secondary assembly. (assuming they overnight the whole pallet of assembled boards to and from the external assembly house.) Another good question: How long does both stages of assembly take in terms of time? ------------------------------- As BFL is poised to be the first to ship out of all the vendors..<cough> supposedly <cough>..are they meeting their scheduled timeline? Or will it be <smirks> something they will "only know 3 days before" the scheduled date at a meeting they have? |
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I suppose the competition has ruined the "no news is good news" statement. We are on schedule and is not currently running into any problems or having new development speeding up our timeline. I could post some facility photos, but I feel that's a childish move and proves nothing. Alas, if there is demand from the community, I'll be happy to show off our truly state of the art equipment used to produce the Avalon.
For myself I'd like to see some photos. It's not about necessity to prove anything, I just like fab photos and it makes this thread more colourful.  I have pretty much the same sentiments. |
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I think Tom will ship his bASICs before BFL ships. Tom already has working chips, and is working on the board. BFL is still waiting for the chips from the fab. What if when they get the chips and assemble the first working board they find problems?
Doomsday.Then, possibly a number of BFL employee will quit or resign, whichever comes first. (I am joking at the possibility...maybe) |
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Why do you still believe bfl will release a fully custom asic. They think they are going to ship within a couple weeks of receiving their first chip. Because that is what they have stated publicly. I am not a hardcore conspiracy theorist who believes there is "no BFL". I believe they have a product. I believe they eventually will ship. Like other members though I have doubts on the "When" and which cutting of corners (if any) they took to get the products out in time. Every indicator they have given is that they are behind schedule. (In my weird twisted [assisted clown like] mind). They more than likely are lying about either (a) having a full custom chip which also explains why they are being super secretive, or (b) are lying about shipping dates that are very far off to keep people from ordering from their competitors. At this time all we have are speculations. I may share some of that theory but not all of it. I do believe they have made a Full Custom ASIC chip. I think they aren't going to make their "5th week target". I do believe they are not ready to ship. I believe they are telling the truth but they aren't possibly giving the whole picture of what is happening with their product. As of the 25th one of their representatives stated they didn't yet have a working prototype. I find it kinda hard to believe that a month later they will be shipping for this reason. I see that Kano and Yochdog are still waiting for the trip to inspect the facilities. So I suspect this means that (as their representative stated) there is nothing significant to see...ie it's not ready yet. (ETA 3 weeks from expected shipping). I don't think they will (IMO) ship in volume, though I might be wrong. I expect they will have extra delays, try as hard as they might. I believe them when they said they had some refraction issues at the Fab. When asked pointed questions about it....I believe they were roundabout as to what that may mean for their schedule. There are many valid reasons why I think they will miss their target date. It is not any one single reference that convinces me of anything. It is a collection of points. At best, I figure if they do ship in December, it will be low volumes. This is all speculation though. I'm leaning towards them releasing an actual product eventually, which I wasn't even sure of before, and not an outright scam. But the idea of them releasing a fully custom chip that gets 1g/hash a watt with no prototype testing needed, no way! It can be done, if you apply the right processes and technology, sure why not? Tom has come close and he is only at 90nm. I don't know about Avalon. Also if an asic chip is released by someone it will be mostly obsolete in a couple years That is invariably true of any released product. Post note: I am not a "Kook" (nor a psycho or "a clown"). I have my (valid) reasons for speculating the way I do. |
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Avalon stated january-february from the start afaik No one except bfl showed any proof of what is coming. Yet only bfl is questioned. Are the ones asking questions (the same and the same and the same) considered shills? Are their comments removed? Do the "neutral" mods start a topic to put all that "bfl drama" in? No.
Clowns without a ROI?
Fell free to copy, paste and modify these questions so they are suitable for Avalon and bASIC threads. Come on, don't play dumb, you have seen what the simplest questions about product state of development or power usage did to those threads and the ones asking them. Why don't you dedicate one of your repetitive walls of text in one of those threads, and see if you can get the answers you ask for from BFL, from them too? Unlike what you have asked of others, I am not trying to restrict you from doing so. Is this about people "not asking" other vendors the same [hard] questions? Or Is this about how you feel about people "asking" BFL the hard questions...and you want that to stop. ---------------------------- Be clear with me on this and I will help you in that endeavor. Are you after "equal treatment" of all vendors or do you want other people to stop asking difficult questions (to any or all vendors)? When you give me a good indicator on this I will go with the flow. The results will probably be interesting. Quoting myself from your link: "You may think your requests for pictures are legit, they are mostly naïve. Why are these questions only asked at BFL, no one is demanding them from the other asic mining equipment makers. Has anyone of you ever demanded pictures of parts or production lines from other announced products like laptops, or cars or i-phones, that you wanted? Why did you order and prepay, at a time when the information was zero besides "we are going to make an asic", and are you now complaining that you are not being handed more than already is handed as information to you, imho a lot?I mean, you had the balls to jump in back then, hold on to them. And don't pre-order more if you have doubts about BFL, won't matter much for your future orders as the time for release is pretty soon now." I need a rough idea of what you seem to want others to do. If it is to promote equal treatment for all vendors or if you are only asking everyone to "stop asking" questions. |
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To be fair, we started working on ASICs before we announced our projects in private ( as did BFL and bASIC I'm sure), so that statement isn't exactly correct. What I dislike is the whole notion of announcing the earliest possible date of release with no regards to possible setbacks. The lack of project management skills and experience shocks me. Although apparently hype sells. Maybe I'll announce that Avalon ship in December after all.what about the notion that bBASIC and Avalon also push back their dates  This statement is plain slander. We, Avalon has only reduced and moved ahead of our shipping schedule after eliminating the chances of potential problems that could arise. With that said, there is the possibility for us to deliver even earlier than Jan 14th.If Avalon ships in December, as does bASIC, that would be truly devastating to BFL if they have yet another delay. They would be the odd man out who is late to the game. Lets hope they are lucky this Christmas. |
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@ BitSyncom (An Avalon Representative)
When did you start conception of the Avalon device?
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Avalon stated january-february from the start afaik No one except bfl showed any proof of what is coming. Yet only bfl is questioned. Are the ones asking questions (the same and the same and the same) considered shills? Are their comments removed? Do the "neutral" mods start a topic to put all that "bfl drama" in? No.
Clowns without a ROI?
Fell free to copy, paste and modify these questions so they are suitable for Avalon and bASIC threads. |
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what about the notion that bBASIC and Avalon also push back their dates Funny thing is.... Avalon actually had pushed their date forward to a sooner release date. From February/March 2013 to January 2013. (Did you get that punch line?)I am not sure what the original date for shipments was for the bASIC. In BFL's defense, they are doing Full Custom so that may be why they are taking more time. |
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I think most of the "BFL" hate is coming from two places.
1) GPU Miners who can't swing dropping the cash for ASIC's, so they're hoping all ASIC's fail and just pissing on anything ASIC.
2) People who have pre-ordered other ASIC's and are hoping BFL fails or just ships way late, so their pissing on anything BFL. 3) Customers who bought BFL hardware and are now turning their official company forum into yet another BitCointalk.org. (Due to legitimate expressions of frustrations) I don't think BFL needs any help to create frustration. They can do it all by themselves. They simply have to keep doing what they are doing. Look, they have their own (company controlled) forum, and it is starting to read like this section on this forum. What does that tell you? People can bitch all they want about BFL or any other ASIC's, but they're not going to change anyone's mind that have pre-ordered. Anyone dropping the cash for pre-orders has most likely thought it over long an hard before they hit the pre-order button. I'd bet for every actual BFL/ASIC pre-order cancellation there's 10,000 posts here telling people that BFL/ASIC's are never going to work, never going to ship, are a scam, yadda yadda. It's just getting annoying because there is some bits and pieces of genuine good info/wisdom out there, but you have to wade through 30 topics and 500 posts of crap to get to it.
I am sorry, but I personally think that BFL is trying to (with intention) use various kinds of stall tactics until their products actually are ready. Their game plan has always openly been to:1) Be the first to market. (they may now soon be the second or third if this keeps up) 2) To produce thee most electrically efficient system. (The advantage here is seriously slipping against bASIC each time they release new info) The Customers side is:1) To possess the mining systerms they purchased as soon as possible to enjoy mining at a very lucrative rate before the reward halving. (This is all but lost now. Now BFL representiatives are instead switching proposals to an idea that they will be "the most profitable" in the "long run". Lets see if that argument holds much water if bASIC devices come very close to the same power envelope. or if customers receive a system that only produces 3$ a day.) 2) To make money while difficulty is low. (This is all but lost now, their target dates for shipments keep getting pushed back so that even if Avalon and bASIC who started out later in the game will now ship at almost the same time.) 3) To support the BitCoin Cryptocurrency. This is goal is still viable. --------------------------------- So yes, early pre-orders with BFL are unlikely to turn into refunds. As long as the stated goals of either the customers or the vendor are still being met. If bASIC ships out in late November and Avalon in early to mid January...IF....there is yet another delay....what exactly impels a customer to stay? (Even an early pre-order customer?) Loyalty? A trade-ins rewards program? A lifetime warranty? ---------------------------------- Each delay makes any sensible customer reassess what they purchased and why they purchased it. All BFL needs to do is set the date back yet another month to get customers angry or frustrated. If any of the other companies ship on time it will just be one more nail in the coffin. This is why I don't think BFL needs "haters"...they just need to be themselves and that in itself is enough to create the issues people see and bemoan day in and out. I imagine this is why they answer questions the way they do, without actually saying anything. I think they have a very good idea long in advance as to what the actual date of shipment will be. I do not think they have a meeting at the end of the month and all agree that they will miss their target a few days before the latest official delay. Other people with experience know that production lines are difficult and time consuming to set up. Even if and when they hire someone else to do it for them. I think they are being almost facetious when they inform their customers of their ship dates. http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/facetiousWhen people like Bogart and Enrgi ask the right questions, they are probably forced to admit in roundabout ways that things are not going smoothly. They just say it in very circumspect ways as to both be saying the literal truth but also leading people to believe in something which is probably known to be ill-construed as the actual truth. I believe this is the reason why the two invited representatives are not on a plane and going to see anything at a BFL facility. If they reported what they saw at this stage it would detract from their business rather than add to it. Adding fear and loathing....etc. So when the two fly out, then it is a strong indicator that things are ready to actually roll. (Which makes the whole thing kinda pointless IMO). Right now Kano and Yochdog are where they are because what BFL wants them to see and report is not set up yet. This should reflect on that shipping goal that is just (roughly) 3 weeks away from today. In customers minds that should bring up many doubts (IMO). |
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I ask, because it means that out of the 12,000 electronic orders...very few that are actually valid. I thought they were well into the 6,000 thousand range. But looking over different combos, I find it hard to believe that there are many valid orders. I expected many mini-rigs to be sold since customer service stated most of their customers were supposedly not front bitcointalk.org or any other forums. (?)
Oh goodness no. They have a preorder count of maybe 300 here on the forums, but they've noted before that total preorders are about double what we see here. Call it 600-700 orders, with the majority being Jalapenos and Singles. And I know veerrryyy few people able to drop $30k on a dime for a Mini Rig. Out of the many thousands of BTC users, only a handful will be throwing down cash for them (including myself if my Fund raises the capital  ) Then I am deeply confused.... I thought I saw one representative say they had several hundred of each type. (Some post somewhere on BitcoinTalk or on their company forum (don't remember where). I thought they were the biggest? If they only have 600 or 700 (or anywhere near that range) then why isn't Tom (of bASIC) considered the largest vendor? Hopefully someone can straighten me out as I have seemingly lost the plot and the narrative I kept seeing touted around.... |
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By the way, the first chip run for BFL is allegedly 20,000 chips.
20,000 ASIC chips can make
20k / 8 = 2,500 Single SC chips.
20k / ? = ?,??? Little SC chips.
20k / 1 = 20,000 Jalapenos.
20k / 200 = 100 Mini-rigs.
Those are the totals if a batch of 20,000 are divided above as if the batch were used exclusively for one type.
Question: How does one go about fulfilling 12,000 order ID's? Lets assume there are less than 6,000 valid orders. (no clue how many are multiple units in each order...so lets assume it makes up to 6,000 assorted units. Some will order several units while others only 1 unit.)
How does one go about fulfilling that many orders with only 20k ASIC chips? Anyone know how many chips will go into each little single SC?
The Little SC will be 4 chips (logically, since each chip produces 7.5GH/s, and they will be 30GH/s units). But why are you asking this question? Josh already stated that the 20k chips was more than enough to fulfill all current preorders (as of a couple of weeks ago)... so the existing orders are some combination of the above units, but not enough to use up 20k chips. I ask, because it means that out of the 12,000 electronic orders...very few that are actually valid. I thought they were well into the 6,000 range. But looking over different combos, I find it hard to believe that there are many valid orders. I expected many mini-rigs to be sold since customer service stated most of their customers were supposedly not front bitcointalk.org or any other forums. (?) |
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bASIC and Avalon also employ third parties for designs as does BFL. So it is not a 1 or 2 person operation. The shipping side of each company IS a different story between the three companies. These three are not of the same size.
Avalon has gone on record to state that they don't want to ship huge lots like BFL in their first run. I forget exactly what the reasoning was.
bASIC's Tom has stated that he doesn't have the manpower but will hire IT temps to fill in as necessary.
But I totally agree, when there are alot of mouths to feed with cash, there will always be problems with cash flow if a company makes the wrong decisions.
It Tom gets hit by a bus, or ninja assassins take out Team Avalon, then it is game over. If BFL_Josh dies, we get to make jokes and then bug the company for our stuff. (No offense Josh, you would be missed by some at least!) Well, You have a point I cannot refute LOL....you got me! Edit: Note to self, ask Tom if he has life insurance. Edit1: Note to self: Ask Team Avalon if they have any ongoing problems with Ninjas from overseas. BIG difference. Even with outsourcing the risks around doing business with individuals and tiny groups is higher than when dealing with larger groups. Larger groups are more likely to continue in the face of adversity, which is one of the reasons for the rise of the corporation over the last 500 years. This is actually the case where the "corporate person-hood" thing we are dealing with is needed, that corporate person is obligated to you, no matter who owns/operates the corporation. (Free speech through unlimited campaign donations on the other hand seems to be a misapplication of the Bill of Rights)
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By the way, the first chip run for BFL is allegedly 20,000 chips.
20,000 ASIC chips can make
20k / 8 = 2,500 Single SC chips.
20k / ? = ?,??? Little SC chips.
20k / 1 = 20,000 Jalapenos.
20k / 200 = 100 Mini-rigs.
Those are the totals if a batch of 20,000 are divided above as if the batch were used exclusively for one type.
Question: How does one go about fulfilling 12,000 order ID's? Lets assume there are less than 6,000 valid orders. (no clue how many are multiple units in each order...so lets assume it makes up to 6,000 assorted units. Some will order several units while others only 1 unit.)
How does one go about fulfilling that many orders with only 20k ASIC chips? Anyone know how many chips will go into each little single SC?
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