Returning to AT and to last Sunday's flashcrash to 275, I think that the 30k whale intentionally drawed a high volume bottom at 275. Somehow showing that the accumulation phase had started. And accumulation phase could last for months...
Revisiting 275 by mid December is highly probable, in my opinion.
 maybe I'm missing something but I thought the accumulation phase was during the previous down trend now that wweak hands have been shaken out. whales will want it to go up |
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Wrong. Bitcoin is or can be money (it's fungible, transactable, and has a value). But to me Bitcoin is more an asset, a store of value, rather than a currency. Bitcoin is entire independent, if bitcoin were to be affected by external markets that's only because the people thought it to be. But by its very nature, Bitcoin is absolutely independent and decentralized.
It could be money. But it isn't and it never will be. If it is to succeed, it will be as a means of making money transfers or payments, but with the units of account that everyone is primarily concerned with being, Dollars, Euros, Pounds, Shekels, Yen, etc. The most important ingredient behind any monetary standard is the authority that stands behind it and enforces it's use as money and that is because the #1 property of 'money', is that people have confidence in it. This even applies to the use of precious metals as money throughout history. Gold and silver coin also required some sovereign power somewhere, who was willing to recognise the metal tokens as being of value, or at least for a small fee, who was willing to the melt the metal coins and remint them into a form which was recognised as having value. This will never apply to Bitcoin. What we might get is some kind of asset backed digital currency based around crypto technology, with all the pernicious aspect's of the Bitcoin block chain built into it. One wallet per global citizen. All economic transactions fully traceable.  so wrong, on so many levels. stick to trading Mat |
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What do you suppose will happen to all this hashpower once block rewards vanish?
*edited.
when block rewards vanish it will be year 2140. at this point either BTC is dead or has taken over the world. considering the latter alternative I would bet on transactions fees being enough to substain the mining network |
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@Melbustus: You're talking about an improvement on gold, not fiat. Controlling the money supply is a useful property of fiat, a tool not available with Bitcoin. TL;DR: Deflation is not "a good thing." See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeflationI'm talking about an improvement on both. I understand full well that the branch of monetary economics most popular with governments over the past 100yrs or so has considered an elastic money supply to be beneficial. I also understand why in some depth (econ degree (which should make me naturally hate bitcoin, right?)). The math is indeed enticing, and does work in constrained environments. If central banks (ie, the handful of people running them) always operated with absolute perfection, in near-ideal academic circumstances, there'd be a strong argument for that being the better path (and there would still be strong counterarguments). But there are baser problems. CBs don't react fast enough, don't have perfect information, are influenced by politics whether they're officially "independent" or not, often have multiple competing mandates, and operate in a literally chaotic mathematical system *as if* the system they're actually manipulating is fully describable by a simple linear relationship. So, arguably, the effect is that while they may smooth medium-term business cycles in non-outlier cases, they create far bigger instability, which, while appearing less often than the natural ups and downs of the business cycle (also debatable), have potentially high-impact outcomes that could lead to longer-term systemic problems, and in the worst case, geopolitical issues; ie, war. The knee-jerk "deflation is bad crowd" (thanks for the wikipedia link, how helpful) often doesn't realize that their arguments often hinge on an underlying assumption that the *overall* *longrun* money supply dynamics have an inflationary bias, and are not known to, or predictable by, all economic participants. Thus, when some shock *does* create a deflationary moment, it gets exacerbated by economic actors who freak out because they (correctly) realize that they should take this brief opportunity to hoard. IFF the money supply dynamics were *perfectly* known to all economic participants, inflationary, deflationary, whatever - just known - everyone would be able to allocate against that backdrop, and the "what if" feedback loop wouldn't form with such ferocity. It's the same equation, where you put the elasticity doesn't matter in the long-run. Thus, the other considerations above should be given more weight. At this point, Bitcoin's inflation rate is way higher than USD--that's what mined coin is. Bitcoin supply will continue to inflate throughout our lifetime.
As was pointed out by Satoshi, the price of Bitcoin tends to the cost of mining it (and vice versa).
Mostly the vice-versa part, but moving on... In other words, the price of producing one bitcoin tends to the cost of producing it. This means that if Bitcoin ever becomes substantially more valuable, the value dumped into mining it will proportionally increase.
Do you think that ~10% of the world's wealth is going into maintaining today's fiat "ledger" every year?
The amount spent on mining will ultimately be slightly less than the amount of transaction fees generated by the network. If bitcoin becomes a high-volume system (see Gavin's latest scalability roadmap), transaction fees can stay low relative to transaction size and still keep the network secure. The cost spent on mining would be completely acceptable and rational. +1 |
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Impressionable children watching "Money As Debt" on YouTube and suddenly their latent daddy issues galvanize into this wacky sillyness I take it you are unable to defend your position. Fair enough. |
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@Melbustus: You're talking about an improvement on gold, not fiat. Controlling the money supply is a useful property of fiat, a tool not available with Bitcoin. TL;DR: Deflation is not "a good thing." See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeflationAt this point, Bitcoin's inflation rate is way higher than USD--that's what mined coin is. Bitcoin supply will continue to inflate throughout our lifetime. As was pointed out by Satoshi, the price of Bitcoin tends to the cost of mining it (and vice versa). In other words, the price of producing one bitcoin tends to the cost of producing it. This means that if Bitcoin ever becomes substantially more valuable, the value dumped into mining it will proportionally increase. Do you think that ~10% of the world's wealth is going into maintaining today's fiat "ledger" every year? this myth again Huffed Mop & Glo instead of getting brainwashed in school, huh? Ain't no foolin' a bright feller like you!  please please, entertain me with your deflation is bad theory and how it applies to Bitcoin It is not my theory, it is a theory agreed upon by the majority of grownups. As much as the egalitarian in me wishes to provide you with the education you so clearly lack, the Good Book warns me about casting my pearls before swine. I'll compromise with a quote from wikip: "Economists generally believe that deflation is a problem in a modern economy because it increases the real value of debt, and may aggravate recessions and lead to a deflationary spiral." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeflationNow go and play. Well your sources are top notch. I also hate it when I deficit spend my Bitcoins, I can completely imagine how all my bitcoin debt could collapse the economy under the weight of deflation... My dear lyth0s! You misunderstand my role in this thread. I'm here to edify, not to defend a doctorate. The link provided is an introductory economics text for my wayward young charge, brg444. Not a citation. Enjoy your evening. It is unfortunate "introduction to economics" is a far as you bothered reading |
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I just can't wait for btc to hit 200$ =D
myself I can't wait for Ripple to hit 0.01  |
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@Melbustus: You're talking about an improvement on gold, not fiat. Controlling the money supply is a useful property of fiat, a tool not available with Bitcoin. TL;DR: Deflation is not "a good thing." See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeflationAt this point, Bitcoin's inflation rate is way higher than USD--that's what mined coin is. Bitcoin supply will continue to inflate throughout our lifetime. As was pointed out by Satoshi, the price of Bitcoin tends to the cost of mining it (and vice versa). In other words, the price of producing one bitcoin tends to the cost of producing it. This means that if Bitcoin ever becomes substantially more valuable, the value dumped into mining it will proportionally increase. Do you think that ~10% of the world's wealth is going into maintaining today's fiat "ledger" every year? this myth again Huffed Mop & Glo instead of getting brainwashed in school, huh? Ain't no foolin' a bright feller like you! please please, entertain me with your deflation is bad theory and how it applies to Bitcoin It is not my theory, it is a theory agreed upon by the majority of grownups. As much as the egalitarian in me wishes to provide you with the education you so clearly lack, the Good Book warns me about casting my pearls before swine. I'll compromise with a quote from wikip: "Economists generally believe that deflation is a problem in a modern economy because it increases the real value of debt, and may aggravate recessions and lead to a deflationary spiral." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeflationNow go and play. Well your sources are top notch. I also hate it when I deficit spend my Bitcoins, I can completely imagine how all my bitcoin debt could collapse the economy under the weight of deflation... logic, he does not speak it |
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@Melbustus: You're talking about an improvement on gold, not fiat. Controlling the money supply is a useful property of fiat, a tool not available with Bitcoin. TL;DR: Deflation is not "a good thing." See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeflationAt this point, Bitcoin's inflation rate is way higher than USD--that's what mined coin is. Bitcoin supply will continue to inflate throughout our lifetime. As was pointed out by Satoshi, the price of Bitcoin tends to the cost of mining it (and vice versa). In other words, the price of producing one bitcoin tends to the cost of producing it. This means that if Bitcoin ever becomes substantially more valuable, the value dumped into mining it will proportionally increase. Do you think that ~10% of the world's wealth is going into maintaining today's fiat "ledger" every year? this myth again Huffed Mop & Glo instead of getting brainwashed in school, huh? Ain't no foolin' a bright feller like you! please please, entertain me with your deflation is bad theory and how it applies to Bitcoin It is not my theory, it is a theory agreed upon by the majority of grownups. As much as the egalitarian in me wishes to provide you with the education you so clearly lack, the Good Book warns me about casting my pearls before swine. I'll compromise with a quote from wikip: "Economists generally believe that deflation is a problem in a modern economy because it increases the real value of debt, and may aggravate recessions and lead to a deflationary spiral." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeflationNow go and play. Wrong, it is the theory agreed upon by neo-Keynesians working hand in hand with central banks. Your education is flawed. You are blinded with ego and refuse to even consider your mistake. I challenge you to read the paper linked at the mises website and refute anything said in there. How ironic of you to dismiss the mises website and quote the platitudes of wikipedia. You can do better than that I'm sure. |
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@Melbustus: You're talking about an improvement on gold, not fiat. Controlling the money supply is a useful property of fiat, a tool not available with Bitcoin. TL;DR: Deflation is not "a good thing." See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeflationAt this point, Bitcoin's inflation rate is way higher than USD--that's what mined coin is. Bitcoin supply will continue to inflate throughout our lifetime. As was pointed out by Satoshi, the price of Bitcoin tends to the cost of mining it (and vice versa). In other words, the price of producing one bitcoin tends to the cost of producing it. This means that if Bitcoin ever becomes substantially more valuable, the value dumped into mining it will proportionally increase. Do you think that ~10% of the world's wealth is going into maintaining today's fiat "ledger" every year? this myth again Huffed Mop & Glo instead of getting brainwashed in school, huh? Ain't no foolin' a bright feller like you! only when you have read these will we be able to discuss the subject on equal terms, sheep. |
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@Melbustus: You're talking about an improvement on gold, not fiat. Controlling the money supply is a useful property of fiat, a tool not available with Bitcoin. TL;DR: Deflation is not "a good thing." See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeflationAt this point, Bitcoin's inflation rate is way higher than USD--that's what mined coin is. Bitcoin supply will continue to inflate throughout our lifetime. As was pointed out by Satoshi, the price of Bitcoin tends to the cost of mining it (and vice versa). In other words, the price of producing one bitcoin tends to the cost of producing it. This means that if Bitcoin ever becomes substantially more valuable, the value dumped into mining it will proportionally increase. Do you think that ~10% of the world's wealth is going into maintaining today's fiat "ledger" every year? this myth again Huffed Mop & Glo instead of getting brainwashed in school, huh? Ain't no foolin' a bright feller like you! please please, entertain me with your deflation is bad theory and how it applies to Bitcoin |
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By the way bitcoin is not more a store of value than ripple... seriously...
you right, as good a store a value as fiat |
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At least you can buy food with dollars & gold... At the current moment you can't even buy anything worth anything with bitcoin! Even food is a hassle to buy with BTC. It needs to get easier! MUCH EASIER!!! Before the masses start to use bitcoin! GLTA!
take a minute to watch this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndshbH3qZ6Y |
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Fiat money is an awful long-term store of value, that's how and why it works.
FTFY Modern money = BTC Fiat is so 2001 |
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@Melbustus: You're talking about an improvement on gold, not fiat. Controlling the money supply is a useful property of fiat, a tool not available with Bitcoin. TL;DR: Deflation is not "a good thing." See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeflationAt this point, Bitcoin's inflation rate is way higher than USD--that's what mined coin is. Bitcoin supply will continue to inflate throughout our lifetime. As was pointed out by Satoshi, the price of Bitcoin tends to the cost of mining it (and vice versa). In other words, the price of producing one bitcoin tends to the cost of producing it. This means that if Bitcoin ever becomes substantially more valuable, the value dumped into mining it will proportionally increase. Do you think that ~10% of the world's wealth is going into maintaining today's fiat "ledger" every year? this myth again |
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Can you please explain why ripple instead of any other crypto? Instead of just parroting the name every post?
I explained it a lot of time. But mainly: -this is scalable -more dev and ressources -bank friendly in regard of compliance (3banks on board already +bitstamp +lakebtc + cryptsy +other exchanges interested..(i asked this indian platform + another form honkkong) -fast (5sec instead of 10-60min) -no mining risk (51% attack ...power concentration ...) -this address directly the remittance problem and that's why bank are onboards At the same time: -bitcoin lacks of dev -bitcoin is slow -banks can't handle it properly because of the lack of regulation -volitity is really a problem for customers Bitcoin is already the past, this community can't admit it because they are blinded by some kind of libertarian ideology but the reality is Ripple is far more revolutionnary than bitcoin. Hard to hear but it's true. Understand it now or admit it later when you can't deny it. Up to you. Ripple is a crypto paypal. It will never become money and therefore is not even in the same league as Bitcoin |
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miss that dude : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=24670Bitcoin is not a payment network
Published on Wednesday 25 June 2014 in English
Tags: bitcoin, bitpay, cash, coinbase, inflation, obligatory trilema whoring, on n'accepte pas les chèques.
Bitcoin is often presented as a payment network.
I think this happens because it is more convenient to ignore the more politically controversial aspects of Bitcoin.
After all, everyone agrees that credit cards suck. You’re basically giving your private key to entities so they can charge you what they want; fraud is very high and the fixes are inconvenient two-factor authentication systems. When you’re used to Bitcoin, where you only sign transactions, this is laughable. Merchants also enjoy the certainty of no chargebacks and small entities do not get fucked by bank fees.
So Bitcoin does all of this better than credit cards, however, it is mostly because the state-backed banking monopoly and the mountain of “regulations”.
There’s no reason we could not have payment systems with instant payments, policies against chargebacks, secure transaction signing, etc.
Ripple is actually quite close to that, if you ignore their own altcoin bullshit; but I doubt Ripple would survive regulation if it ever becomes too popular.
Bitcoin detractors that interact with the poorly informed “bitcoin community” will retort that Bitcoin has many issues as a payment network, and they will be right.
If you only want buy stuff, the price fluctuation risk is incredibly annoying. Of course, that’s what Coinbase wants you to forget, because they always try to fuck you on that aspect. They’ve even automated the fucking2.
Critics will also say that it does not scale. The blockchain as a payment network truly cannot handle the transaction volume of, say, Mastercard.
Unless you are bitcoin-rich, or have a bitcoin income, there is very little incentive to use Bitcoin to buy things online. So while merchants accepting Bitcoin take very little risk as payment processors give them the exact fiat amount they want, I do not think they get much volume from bitcoiners. MP goes as far as to say as payment processors are “not in Bitcoin”; I disagree, in the sense that payment processors are exchanges3. While those payment processors have no business long-term, they are very useful in the short term.
Decentralization is a compromise. Bitcoin as an ubiquitous payment network will not happen on the blockchain, and it will likely be through centralized services. The future of Bitcoin payments is to use the blockchain as a clearing house tool and for long-term savings, and there’s nothing wrong about that.
Because what Bitcoin really is is digital cash and digital gold.
Bitcoins are an extremely secure, unseizable asset that you can actually own; unlike how most fiat currency is used, bitcoins in your wallet are a not debt to you and are not exposed to fractional reserves.
It is much more convenient to hold and secure than fiat cash, and fiat cash only works in physical transactions (and is sometimes not even allowed).
Moreover, its limited supply is anything but a random choice; it is a clear message against governmental central banking policies. And it’s not so that it is deflationary, it is more that the monetary policy is known in advance and impossible to change. Bitcoin with an constant but reasonable inflation4 would not be so different.
And this is what we have really been longing for.
http://pankkake.headfucking.net/ps: hoarders are the real heroeshit the nail on the head. this has been my thinking for awhile. |
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Your attention please. Bitcoin is about to die again. Please return to your seats and fasten your seat-belts. We are descending steeply today so please ensure that your bitcoins are securely stowed. Thank you.  Chart from bitcoinaverage.com.The fractal pattern of bulges and sell-offs will probably continue moving the price mostly sideways on that scale for the next few months until we collide with this support. That is when the real test will occur. or we could very well shoot up without touching that line, as we did last year |
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Bitcoin only has 500K-2M users, has all this venture capitalist money, wink & nods from tech celebrities and a lot of newspaper coverage. Why has the userbase expansion slowed down to nothing?
Because the price is going down. And by all measures it is indeed still too complex for mainstream adopters. But we are getting there and as you have mentioned this goes for any crypto. It cannot grow the way of the Internet because joining the Internet did not necessitate consumers to divest their financial holdings from the system that has managed them their whole life. Converting USD to BTC is not as simple as stopping writing letters and using email. The challenges for a completely nascent money technology to be adopted are considerably more difficult than what any other technology has to face. Whatever mainstream Bitcoin FUD you can think of, it needs to be the one to succeed because if it fails, the public's trust for EVERY other cryptocurrencies goes down with it. This success will require education of the masses, a lot of greed, and a little bit of luck. Meanwhile technologists are actively building the infrastructure to support this network of people until the next rally brings aboard a whole new fleet of adopters. |
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