that's snow joke!  

(be safe)

Welcome...

here is a welcome from some other guys on the forum too...

Moon is a moving target

We need to catch it and lock it up in the basement

 

Good question... I have been wondering the same thing.... a scenario I see playing out....  if, no sorry, when there is a stock market crash, and people are panic selling in the stock markets etc and peoples trades are hitting margin calls and some need to liquidate trades to cover other trades, or just want to protect their capital then there is capital flight from anywhere that is perceived as high risk... to somewhere safer ...some of the usual culprits being the Swissy, Yen, or say even US T bonds, and the like... plenty of others but they are quite usual... quite often Gold and silver get a share of the capital flight, but even they get quite a rocky ride and sometimes the only thing people feel comfortable with is cash, cash is king as they say...  so how could Bitcoin fit in, tricky one to call as it has not ever had to endure a stock market crash... and I think that there are a fair few Bitcoiners that do not fit the usual "investor profile"  whilst there are no doubt a fair few people in Bitcoin that may want to cut their speculative positions  to say cover a margin call on a fx pair or on a stock, or for whatever reason but most people in Bitcoin I think at this stage would probably not fall into that category (certainly some, but not a huge percentage of people) but there could well be some larger holders that do have exposure elsewhere and have large sums in BTC that they may want to bring into a perceived safe harbour.. I imagine that during a stock crash, fear will be high, and so I would be shocked if we do not see some weak hands shaken out of the market, and also at this point in its development I would be surprised if Bitcoin received "safe harbour" status.... SO I am guessing that it all depends on how far the Dow drops... if it is mega, then I think we could see some considerable selling pressure on BTC, but I also think that whilst everyone else is panicking that there are a lot of Bitcoiners that will be ready and waiting, as they have been laying in wait for such a moment where they can buy up all of the cheap coins and so I guess Bitcoin will get hit but recover quickly, quicker than most other sections of the economy. Just my thoughts.. as for a figure I have no idea.

Also the DOW and other markets not just the DOW have been rocky(er) since mid of last week....  tick tock tick tock

Edit- oh and after the shitstorm has settled, then I imagine the stock crash creating more bullish sentiment for Bitcoin as long as it does not fall tooo far, and stay there toooo long...

yeah... good one : )

clap ....

because of course that is what I am claiming... yeah of course... good one you goon.

Patience... we are going to trade in a range for a while, then things are gonna hot up... probably not long to wait now... minor dip then up!

huh? where the? who the? whaaat? is this the same forum ?

Are you guys talking about the Doge crash on Bter?

Jeez... ok you are entitled to your opinion : )  

I said that we are waiting for breakout, or I am anyway , and on the downside from a starting point of $825  I gave the next support level of $817 - before it got there... and then  I stated if you read, that the resistance level above it was $825, and that the next support below it was $800.  If you actually look at the chart, using say the 2hr or the 30min or the 4 hr even on Bitstamp and you can clearly see it has pivoted on and around $817 for considerable amount of time now. Draw a liine at 817 and note the open and close dotted along $817 for the past 24 hours, that $817 was a Fib retracement from the last ATH..  

See it or not, that is up to you... it was only a curiosity as I had wondered before it occured if it could be a sticking point, like I have also said, I am not even trying to sell anyone on any form of science, other than, even if it is just because other traders DO use it, then it is a tradable tool? IF it works, and the only way to see if it works in cryptos as it often does in PM's it to look at it

Also actually there is NO indicator that works all of the time, and if there was there would not, could not be a market as we know it...
and the key word here is indicator, it is a tool is all, and if you believe in it, or think others belive in it, it could help give some insight into price movements..

Alo you know if you look and read my posts, I think you should be able to see I am not calling this a science and claiming 100% and that it is going to happen, not even 50%  I just made an observation, and actually, you at this point saying it is bs , well yeah it probably is, as I have myself said, but ermm so far it has actually pivoted around $817 , draw a line on a 1hr or 30 min Bitstamp graph around $817 and zoom in and scroll back through the actual price action for past 24 hours,  and you should see the bars straddling touching and flitting either side of $817 , and if there is a break out of within $3 it seems to attempt to break $825 and does not, and if it falls it make like it might dip out past $810 and not $800 but it does not...  so it has traded within the $825 RS level  stayed mainly around the $817 pivor level and not broken the $800 SP level,  that I stated were possible  and it has done so for the past 24hrs... not amazing, not shabby, and at this point does not mean much....so basically give me a break, or don't it really does not matter.

And yeah I am a fundamentals guy- take me for my word or do not up to you... but I am, I have an interest in TA but I think especially with BTC that fundamentals and news and the tech are key. I am certainly not trying to BS anyone of convince you of anything... like I said
I did not invent fib retracements, nor was I the guy that spotted the golden ratio or phi, so sorry if I come across as anything other than
an enthusiastic poster..

I posted my "predictions/scenario" for fun as I stated- and I am sure you can have a really good laugh, when we do not hit any of the  next potential  RS/SP and pivot points,  they are pretty specific so it is most likely you will get your laughs... so enjoy.. I respect your opinion and your right to one and laughter is good for the soul.  

Edit
ps I have already given the channels and pivot points I see it possibly going to over the next few weeks, thats what the rest of the numbers and pivot points are.
  

Thanks : )
 
and  Wow! sounds like that would have been a pretty interesting gig.. I imagine you picked up some pretty useful info there.. O'Neil is a bit of a legend huh.

I do like TA as useless as it is sometimes, but I have seen some great traders in the past using TA trading and making calls in PM's using all sorts of tools and lagging indicators etc but the traders that have caught my attention or maybe my imagination I have seen using momentum and old Gann indicators & Andrews pitchforks, mixed with Fib levels  but also the really good ones mixed that in with newses and fundamentals and a deep market knowledge mixed with an understanding of the institutional mechanisms in play,with the daily price fixes etc, that and an understanding of the supply and demand coupled with an analysis of inventory /futures markets etc and combine they that with TA to mostly great effect..in entering and exiting the market, the only thing there though is of course the manipulation and suppression and raids that occur in PM's, but I have even seen some of those raids be called in advance before..  really is quite something, and then add on top of that what you guys can do with your magic.

I am curious to see how the world of TA continues to develop around BTC.

Agreed... newses/fundamentals rules! and I am Bullish on those fronts.

 

Ha ha.. yeah fair play.. good one...you are right... but no worries there I have thick skin, and a thick skull probably too... I guess I am a little cranky in the mornings    but you know, you contribute, and someone takes a leak on your parade, fair enough tis the internets and all, but at least "get it" before you take a leak all over someones "work"   If what I had posted really was just a guess of somewhere between $725- $991 then actually even that has merit, if it is correct, and I have seen far far far less sound logic here and far larger "misses"  ie "Moon by next month" But as it is I was actually quite specific really, the pivots and the channels of SP and RS on each side of pivot are quite specific,  all I am really saying is lets see if we do bounce around in those channels in this breakout.

We are all here speculating, and having a laugh fair enough , I love a Choo Chooooo MFKR as much as the next guy.
Only reason I posted this was I saw the guy make a very broad prediction two days ago on here, and as I was looking at some fib levels on something else I am trading I thought I would take a look at the BTC charts, and I saw some very strong evidence that the price has in the past and is bouncing around strong fib retracement levels... and a few other key lines (psychological resistance levels at key price points in USD and CNY) now the reason why ? I have a feeling that maybe some of the bots maybe some traders, maybe some Chinese/japanese traders make use of these FIB levels themselves to enter and exit the market, SOME of them, and MAYBE, I know they sure do in the PM markets. I have looked at the graphs, and those potential resistance and support and pivot levels seem like real possabilities based on the price actions so far and going back a good few months. Though a large green or red bar that blows straight 
through the support or res levels would not surprise me either, it is just a potential indicator that I thought I would take a public look at.

I take it with a pinch of salt, but at the same time when you read a chart, carry out an analysis, get some figures out of it, and one of them
as in this case the very first one, gets hit within hours and then the prices stays does indeed pivot around it, then it is , for me interesting, thats all, which is what has happened in this situation... could all turn to shit next, but for me it is intereating that $817 100% got the role of the pivot for 24 hours and the price as I post this is $817.51 , and $800 remains and $825

Yeah I guess maybe I am in one way itching for it to play out bang onto my scenario.. but I was not jumping up and down , preparing a newsletter and subscription service lol but I was posting, for prosperity and as an update... anyway I am rambing now...I have just got up and the 2nd coffee is kicking in.....

  I will continue to see if the pivots and SP/RS levels get hit and maybe post a highly condensed 1 line update or something as they either do or do not get hit (come on, we all know they will probably not get hit, and I will just be wrong, but at least give it a chance and then rip me a new one afterwards    then you can really take the piss outta me lol !?   but at the end of the day really I dont care I am a long term hodlr and dip buyer...  so what I mean to say of course is CHOOOOOO CHOOOOOOOO1!!!1! 

Ok fair enough will check it out...... thanks

Oh dear , I am sorry,,  you are right I posted a scenario and it actually played out for 24 hours so far  and continues to ... sorry how stupid of me... I shall only post photos of flying trains from now on, that is what we are here for silly me...  

lol... maybe you should learn how to read! and what support and resistance and pivot points are. - EDIT Sorry I am a cranky fckr in the mornings

 I predicted channels and pivot levels....  so ermm yeah... take a read try to understand what that actually means , before you start to ridicule someone, before you know, talking a load of words that do not make sense.. I am not trading from these charts anyway , I am a fundamentals guy... I already posted that I am an idiot posting this for fun.. but no still not good enough for ya...  

As I have already posted , I put the downside support and pivot levels in place as they could come into play

e.g the price $817 first acted as support , then turns pivot,  the next level of support is $800 and the next level above it is $825  

so in that scenario  as soon as we hit $817  then :  

Resistance level 1=  $825

PIVOT level= $817   - $817 was the support level turned pivot.

Support level 1=  $800


SO the price was stuck there $817 for around 12 hours (now almost 24 hours)  and still has not really traded out of the range  I gave for the  first channel =  of $800 - $817 - $825 ... for 24 hours now - plus I called the pivot of $817 sorry if $817 is not specific enough for you

$817 a key pivot = YUP we have been pivoting around here for 24 hours ish
$800 next support = YUP we have not broken this
$825 Next resistance= YUP we have not broken this.

This is how posting  support and resistance and pivot levels works !!  so my numbers showing the different potential pivot points are actually quite specific...  well very specific , and also the first set of numbers each side of the current price are the 1st most probable figures to be traded around.

Added to that I have stated yesterday that we a trading sideways at around $820-$ 825 , I also stated that I see us going up form here , but that there are downside supports, and I have stated the levels going in both directions that I see resistance and psychological resistance and support...and plus I have explained that this is covering how I see a BREAKOUT as I am basing the figures on FIBBONANCI RETRACEMENTS (a form of TA that I did not invent by the way)  and I say that this is only valid if the breakout occurs now, or within the next few weeks.

So basically  I posted a scenario and so far it  as played out... the "magic price"  could have traded to ANYTHING in the last 24 hours but it has not.

What I was trying to point out is there MAY be some resistance points around fib retracement lines.... so I posted the retracement lines, and their pivot points...  out of interest…  on this price movement and speculation thread..

The reason I posted a  the figure of  $775- $820 for the SIDEWAYS scenario, was just incase we do not get an actualy breakout within the next few weeks.

I am not saying this is going to play out, but I am saying
I did not invent Fibbonanci retracement lines or support levels or resistance levels - it is something I learned about 7 or 8 years ago and have seen it used to very good effect to describe RETRACEMENTS of moves, I have used in the PM market to sucess myelf (sometimes) and seen it used  a lot by old timer traders that have been in the game trading for 30/40 years - I repeat I did not make this up myself, I am just passing it on.
At least I actually speculated and gave specific figures and specific reasons (ie Fib lines, or fiblines intersecting with psychological resistance levels) and I have come and stated it for the world to see, as sstated earlier I can just go back to posting pictures of flying trains... choo choo, my kid likes it when I make the noise.. oh how he loves it,  maybe I shall get him to post (he would probably be as accurate as most here, myself included ; )
 
I may not be nostradamus, but I am not trying to be, just playing out a public experiment- did I mention I am a buyer and a holder of BTC I do not sell at the moment anyway, as I said I am a fundamentals guy at heart… I bought a few years back, and I will sell in 2017-2020 - so I do not need these figures anyway... it was as I say a bit of fun, and I just wanted to use them buzzwords I think.

No argument for me..I am expecting up as I say... just noting that the $817 level I pointed out yesterday as being a potential resistance/pivot/support  level has indeed done so for the past 12 hours baring minor dips out but not out of the channels...  I am going to continue to track the pivots and levels I have posted and see how they continue to play out... as a bit o fun

$817 Still bouncing along this resistance line

not really... read my replies : )