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4401  Economy / Economics / Is this a clear sign of high inflation? on: November 25, 2021, 07:38:06 AM


When we think of inflation we usually think of how much food, electricity or gasoline costs.

But there is another aspect as well: how much it costs us to buy financial assets.

The above chart at first glance may appear to be due to the strong performance of the 500 largest U.S. companies. But this is misleading: I believe it reflects more the effects of massive printing and inflation than how companies are doing.

The charts for the stock markets of countries with high inflation are similar: the more currency printing and inflation, the more the stock market rises.

That the S&P, which has an average return of about 10% on average has risen 30% in the last year is sobering. Let's think that in November 2020 we were already out of the stock market slump that was the COVID.

At the end of the day, anyone like me who has money invested in the S&P 500 can't be too happy about the 30% return because if we discount inflation it comes to almost nothing.
4402  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: does this have something to do with bitcoin's current decline... on: November 25, 2021, 07:02:05 AM
I agree with the others. No. Correlation does not imply causation, and it is one thing that is clearly seen in this case. It is very typical to link China with FUD but this correlation is very poor. Also, I would not call the state we are in a market decline. Rather we are in a kind of sideways.
4403  Economy / Economics / Re: Can civilization revert to a barter system on: November 25, 2021, 06:56:38 AM
No matter what happens with banks or CBDCs, there's no way in hell a single country--much less the entire world--is ever going back to a system of barter. 

Money as we know it has evolved over centuries to become what it is today, and I see absolutely no reason why anyone would even consider taking a monumental step backward to implement a system that was like 100 steps removed from the present day in terms of that evolution.  There would have to be nuclear warhead strikes on a global scale for that to happen, and by that I mean the population would have to be reduced to the point where governments have been obliterated and there's no monetary system left.

If you want to barter, do it as a hobby with like-minded people.  It just won't work anymore as a generally accepted form of trade.

I completely agree with this.

I don't even know how Hydrogen came up with that idea. Bartering is typical of primitive societies and is impossible to practice on a large scale in modern societies.

You can exchange with another person one thing for another, but on a large scale, let's see how you exchange a piano for apples. Or for a mixture of apples, shoes and adhesive tape. You probably need those three things and someone else needs a piano, but the three things you need are not in the same person's possession, unless they barter beforehand to get what you want to give them the piano.

In short, no.

4404  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: NO..India is NOT Banning Bitcoin on: November 25, 2021, 06:49:24 AM
In this we can see that in the forum it happens as outside it: at the minimum that there is a news of this style the masses only get the big picture without paying attention to the detail.

That's still a big hit imo. Using bitcoin as a payment method is bitcoin's one of biggest use cases. If you take that away, it will become a speculative asset and nothing else. I don't know how can you be fine with this because that's practically half of the bitcoin's practical use. Imagine all the unbanked freelancers that were using btc instead of visa/mc. Now they all lost their business because of that law. Not everybody uses crypto for gambling. Some people were using it to collect money which imo is the biggest use case of crypto and now it is gone.

I agree. Although I suppose freelancers will still be able to collect and pay in bitcoin as long as they use it from a hardware or paper wallet, rather than custodial wallets.
4405  Other / Meta / Re: Save your nice merit records here - LAST UPDATE: 06/11/2021 on: November 25, 2021, 06:44:37 AM
My nice merit record:

4406  Economy / Gambling / Re: There isn’t a poker room you could win at ? on: November 24, 2021, 12:16:26 PM
~What about tournaments? There's a buy-in which you have to pay whether you want it or not. I agree with you regarding cash games though.
Yes, tournaments mostly brings more money, and you can choose your level with choosing buy-in size. But the same time leveling-up profit level, your opponents skills growing up too. Not always, but mostly.

With this I disagree because there are tens of millions people in the world playing poker online, and most of them do not develop new strategies, or learn them from the contemporary best poker players. It's not that they are lazy or something, they just don't have time for that, having other more important things to do. And you can always find such people in online tournaments, and outplay them. At least that's my theory. "Don't Try This at Home!", as they say. Smiley

Well, what you say is more incorrect today than ever in history. On the one hand you are right that most players are losers. They lose money in poker in the long run just like those who lose money in casino games. They don't bother to study and improve or they do very little.

However, about a decade ago, with the proliferation of online poker schools and all the material that can be found on the net, the percentage of players who study and improve has gone up a lot, and that has led to a tightening of the levels.

You are also right that most of those players can be found in online tournaments, because the luck factor is more important than, say, at 9 cash limit tables.

4407  Economy / Reputation / Re: [self-moderated] Report unmerited good posts to Merit Source on: November 24, 2021, 11:30:06 AM

Several of those threads have already been merited so they are not what this thread is about (Report unmerited...). The others don't seem to me as clearly worth of merit but maybe some merit source will merit them.
4408  Other / Meta / Re: Disadvantages of non detectable early Plagiarism on: November 24, 2021, 09:39:12 AM
I usually just Google it:

I have caught plagiarism a few times, and at first I used google but at some point I started using free versions of plagarism checker that you can find on the web. I don't know if there is much of a difference.
4409  Other / Off-topic / Re: Thank you Bitcointalk Forum on: November 24, 2021, 09:32:44 AM
No need to repeat. I fully understand the rule.

How lucky you are, as the several of us who commented in that thread don't seem to have it so clear as you do.


No begging right?. But why let op leave it like that just in case someone comes along that is willing to donate. At first, you always repeat the rule number 7 which is no begging and now it looks like you don't want op to delete the thread as you have said begging will result of the account being banned.

I don't know why you make it so complicated. On a personal level, I don't care if the OP deletes the thread or doesn't delete it. Thinking that his story might be true, if he doesn't delete it he has a chance.

Since I am not as clear about rule number 7 as you are, I think that maybe a moderator will come and tell him that he can. I think that according to that rule the most likely scenario is that he would be told no, especially because he is a newbie, he has no reputation here, but as it is an unofficial rule and it seems that it is not applied 100% of the time, he has a small chance that would be ruined if he deletes the thread.


4410  Other / Off-topic / Re: Thank you Bitcointalk Forum on: November 24, 2021, 09:01:32 AM
I think I may have not been clear but it's not begging. It is some sort of a donation and it's up to people if they will donate or not either small or not. What I meant about the documents is about the expenses needed to pay. Not that we have to pay all of but as an act of kindness. Think of it as charity much like this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5239386.0

Have a look at this thread and tell me if you still think the same:

No begging - did I catch on rule #7

Im really sorry sir, if my post brought discussion with the reputable members here.

I will ask to delete my post as necessary. Thank you for all the response and time exerted to reply my post.

Do as you please but you can leave it just in case someone comes along who is willing to help you.

Or if it is clear that you can ask for donations, which I don't think you can, but maybe a moderator will come and clarify it for us.
4411  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Diversifying Your Portfolio in Crypto on: November 24, 2021, 08:59:24 AM
Thank you for this Helpful advice.

Some Youtuber or crypto Analyst says. put your money in different coins, memes, Exchange coins, Metaverse and gaming coins, DeFI coins etc
What is the Psychology behind that advices.

I don't know about the psychology, but as I said before, diversifying is about reducing risk, but reducing the potential return as well.

In classical investment theory, one must diversify to avoid losing everything. If you put your money in shares of a single company, there is a very high risk that you will lose it all, even if the company is a good one. However, if you divide your investments among several stocks, properties, commodities, etc. you reduce the risk a lot.

In the crypto world this seems silly to me, as all alts have been proven time and time again to lose against Bitcoin in the long run. The only more or less solid contender is shitEthereum. There are many fancy alts that promise they are going to be the next Bitcoin but just as quickly go up as they go down.

I would recommend you diversify but into other assets. If buying crypto buy Bitcoin, and if anything a bit of Eth or some other you trust (lol) and if you want to diversify more, buy stocks, mutual funds, RE or commodities.


4412  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Stake.com - Shaving leads in the Affiliate Program on: November 24, 2021, 08:07:00 AM
If this turns out to be true, I don't understand why they do it. A casino with an influx of customers earns enough to get into these messes that can end up destroying its reputation. I can believe it from casinos that have low traffic, their numbers are not doing well, and therefore they need to get money from wherever they can.

Let's wait for a stake.com representative to come here and see what he has to say.

4413  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Diversifying Your Portfolio in Crypto on: November 24, 2021, 08:00:38 AM
All you hear about these Trading and Investing rules that " Dont put all your eggs in one basket " or " Diversify your portfolio "

We also hear:

Diversification is protection against ignorance,”

or:

Diversification is selling the winners to buy the losers.

But how we Apply these rules in Crypto Market.

So what would be the right strategy of Diversifying Crypto Portfolio...

Buying only Bitcoin or at least 90% Bitcoin.

When Bitcoin moves 95% alts dumped. BTC moves up or down, Alts goes down. where we invest and no one can predict the market movement.

That is why it is better to invest than to play roulette (a.k.a. trading).



4414  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How reasonable is it to invest in Bitcoin in the current situation? on: November 24, 2021, 07:41:38 AM
Quick question, are you looking to trade it, or actually invest in it? These two are very different things. Because if you're actually looking to invest, looking at the recent price movements shouldn't really matter if you actually think that it's going higher in the long-term.

Just take a look at USD inflation. It is now above 6.4%, and it certainly does not look to be something temporary.

...

Theoretically, bitcoin is an amazing protection against inflation. It was designed for that.

I think it is very reasonable to have a decent amount of bitcoin, for anyone, anywhere in the world.

Exactly. It seems to me that the OP has a roulette-playing mentality. He wants to guess what the market will do and buy or sell accordingly. Since it seems to him that we are in a correction phase, he hesitates whether to buy.

From an investor's point of view, it is always a good time to buy Bitcoin, not only because of its intrinsic properties that make it appreciate in value over the long term, but because holding your wealth in fiat has the sure risk of losing purchasing power by leaps and bounds due to high inflation.

4415  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Cola.bet launches zero margin campaign in Africa. on: November 24, 2021, 07:31:28 AM
I take it "zero marging" means "zero House Edge". I guess they will do it for a season to attract customers and then they will put the HE, otherwise they will go bankrupt.

It is good progress in the gambling industry in that country because they can attract people's attention to try their luck.
But hopefully, that can give awareness to the local government to watch out their citizen who is playing gambling because that can attract more serious problems to their citizen.
Gambling websites or local gambling can give so many tempting offerings to people to invite them to go to their places and spend their money.
Maybe it needs more government regulations to the gambling places so both can control their people not become addicted to gambling.

Yes, what I don't like about the news is that the result is that they are going to impoverish the people of Africa even more.
4416  Other / Off-topic / Re: Thank you Bitcointalk Forum on: November 24, 2021, 07:17:14 AM
I fully understood sir. I'm just telling what i feel because it will feel better. On the other hand sir, if i able to upload documents supporting my story. It is very much possible as long as it will be approve by the admin/moderator.

Hoping for the approval of the moderator and if i'm on the right topic to put this kind of post.

Your response definitely helped me sir.

Thank you so much and god bless.

If you're talking about uploading documents to prove your story is true and asking for money, I wouldn't do it. You risk getting your account banned.

Remember the rule I mentioned earlier:


Not that we doubt your story but many forum users wanted to make sure they donated their money for that same purpose which is to help that person. There are some forum users who will start a campaign for and it's up to other forum users if they are willing to give donations. So in your situation, it will be most likely asking for donations instead of begging. If you want to received donations, you have to provide a proof like medical certificate something like that so it is much more believable compared to words alone as it could be created to take money only.

I doubt very much what you say. In general the rule is no begging but in some cases it has been allowed on the forum because the people who had created the thread had a great reputation.

I don't remember a single case of a newbie on the forum who had a begging thread left undeleted.

4417  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: India plans law that will prohibit ‘all private cryptocurrencies’ on: November 24, 2021, 07:14:11 AM
Same old story. Regarding Bitcoin we have two types of countries: those that turn their back on it, such as India and China, and those that embrace it, such as El Salvador.


This source claims only certain select crypto will be targeted for ban.

India plans law that will prohibit ‘all private cryptocurrencies,’ with ‘certain exceptions’

https://techcrunch.com/2021/11/23/india-plans-law-that-will-prohibit-all-private-cryptocurrencies-with-certain-exceptions/

....

Based on past history, I would guess ethereum might be legal in india under the ban, due to its long partnership with JP morgan.

Other crypto and exchanges who are allied with banking establishments may be given a green light as well.

So they are going to allow the crap cryptocurrencies they can control and they are going to ban Bitcoin and some others. I think in a few years they will realize their mistake and they will be in a hurry to buy Bitcoin.


4418  Other / Meta / Re: [LOG] The ranked up members - Congratulations! on: November 24, 2021, 07:06:54 AM
---.
Nah, you are right; I messed up.

However, I double checked and found the Hero entry
Quote
280)   8/25/2021   Poker Player
(Terrible quote coz on phone)

Lol! That's wrong as well. As I said before, I ranked up to Hero last week, not in August, and I posted on this thread:

I have ranked up just today.

I thought I needed 500 activity, and, therefore, I didn't expect to rank up until two weeks from now, but today I was pleasantly surprised. At first I thought it was a mistake, but I checked in the Merit & New Rank Requirements thread that I only needed 490 activity and 500 merit.

 Smiley

I guess the tracking is not automated, and it is easy to make mistakes. Thanks for the work anyway.
4419  Other / Meta / Re: [LOG] The ranked up members - Congratulations! on: November 23, 2021, 10:55:12 AM
Have you forgotten about me? You haven't mentioned me, even though I said in this very thread that I ranked up on 11/17/2021. I don't see me in the first page either.

You actually are

Quote
545)1/16/2021Poker Player

That's from when I ranked up to Full Member. I have ranked up twice since then. The last one a week ago to Hero Member and I don't see it anywhere.

Or I don't know if I don't understand you correctly.
4420  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin Is The Best Weapon Society Has Against Inflation & Wealth Inequality on: November 23, 2021, 06:56:51 AM
Inflation is fine with me, but wealth inequality...I am against wealth equality.

If we are talking about very disparate societies where a few at the top have everything and the majority have nothing, as in the Middle Ages, I am against it. But in modern societies open to the market economy, being richer or poorer depends to a large extent on oneself.

Wealth equality started to be talked about with the fall of communism. Once it became clear that it was a failed system and that instead the market economy was what reduced hunger in the world in a drastic way, the former communism changed its discourse and started talking about wealth inequality, among other things.

Let us turn to the case of Bitcoin. Suppose there are a million Bitcoin that belong to Satoshi (I am not saying that this is so, some people doubt it). Now suppose Satoshi shows up and starts spending Bitcoin.

What would we have? Wealth inequality, because he would have the most Bitcoin in the world. But... does he deserve it? YES.

The problem with this discourse is that it always ends up with the solution to the problem of inequality wealth being a socialist politician imposing/raising taxes, or confiscating and redistributing as he pleases.

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