Bitstamp

Starting point was $820/5  today at around 02:55:31 PM

I have laid out my upside possible resistance/pivots/supports from my original post for easier viewing.

If we break out from now or over the next few weeks or at least the next month
then from $820-$825 I see the following possible resistance/pivots/supports.
 
$840-$858
$858-$880
$880-900 ($900 psychological for USD)
$900-$910/5 (could be a psychological resistance level as also $908/10 = CNY5500)
$910-$928
$928-$945
$945-$970
$991 - (could be a psychological resistance level as also $990/1 ish = CNY5500)
$Cape Canaveral

Downside scenario from this current $820 - $825 channel I can see the possible supports/pivots/resistance

$825 (this price could also be a psychological support because $825= CNY4999.99)
$817 - We dipped down to here for quite some time a good few hours now hovering on or around $817 within plus or minus $2ish- or CNY 50 short of CNY5000 $817 first acting as support then switching to resistance - within $2-3 but $817 is quite a specific number we have been pivoting on off for quite a few hours… not $833 or $823 or  $807 - but quite strongly pivoting around $817 (+- $2-3ish) ….quite interesting to see what happens…. next….,  if there is consolidation at this level then there should be a movement one way or other…  
$800 psychological
$800 - $775 ish
$775- $757 ish
$757- $749 ($740 = CNY4500)
??

EDIT:as I was writing this we just shot up to $823 on Bitstamp, lets see if it can hit $825 (CNY5000) and what it does if and when it does....
EDIT 21:44 PM: The price levels and pivots I have posted are actually based on Fibonacci retracement lines over two timescales, however a few of the numbers also coincide on several occasions with psychological resistance levels, but in CNY as I have noted in brackets, which is a curio)

Me too... I have used them to good effect to judge entry and exit points in the past with PM's , you know when you know you want to get into the market or out, but are trying to figure where the point is where you think this is a good a point as any... Fibs have been very useful for that also in trading certain currency crosses, but of course in the PM market it is a known that many traders and even bots do use Fib retracements , and their main use therefore is mainly I suspect for whales to set more effective bull and bear traps , it is difficult to study a market for such patterns when it is being not only manipulated but also gamed by people using the very tool you are looking to study the efficacy of ie Fibs

I have only started to look at the fib retracements with Bitcoin recently but I will be keeping an eye out going into the future... however I see them probably only of some use in describing retracements of moves, to identify possible channels levels of possible support and res.


In reality though as I have already said I am a fundamentals guy and the fundamentals guy sees strong upside on mid term horizon, as many of us do..

On a another note there is a 7- 7.5 ish month cycle inbetween ATH peaks if you go back , it is there a good four or five + cycles back.. (edit ok one of them is a peak after a dip and not a new ATH) so I would not be susprised if we see this years ATH's inbetween June - July , but maybe I am wrong I would not be surpised if it was Oct-Dec

It is as we all know very hard to put your finger on any actual price and match it with an actual accurate timescale especially with an emerging market/technology..  Fugazi, Fugayzi, Fugahzi, it's a wahzi, it's a woozie, fairy dust.  If there is going to be real skin in the game then I happily call a direction and a timescale though... Choo Choo... and not too far into the future - ha -

 

: ) yeah I know all about it... I was kind of joking?   I say kind of because

a) Apophenia is very real - I see it everwhere I look everyday ; ) but yeah it is real of course
b) but there are actually really patterns everywhere
c) just not EVERYWHERE

Indeed you have... it is a useful thing.. as it is a  very human behaviour, built into our physiology and manifested into reality into behaviour via psychology…. humans are complicated pattern recognition
machines… we love a pattern, and we love to spot an anomaly in a pattern, this is one of our built in survival techniques, so as such we are constantly on one level seeking out patterns, identifying them and looking for future differences… a by product of this is of course dead ends…  regardless of this…
I have seen fib lines work over and over again in one market or another..  not always, nothing does though, if it did , there would no longer be a market. I do not claim that the golden ratio is alive and well and kicking around the markets… but I do claim that others do trade from these patterns and the retracement lines of big moves.. the graphs often show this .. but you can make any set of data show any results if you have already an outcome in mind… I take it all as just another indicator… I posted it because yesterday someone posted a prediction based on Brownian probability etc and I thought I would post a scenario… I believe it is going up, but prices in a market tend to bounce around in channels, I had a look at the graphs, and the recent price action, and the fib levels,  and these are the channels I see that could play out in the next breakout… and I put the downside support levels there for purposes of seeing where the price could bounce around in , on the next breakout up, if we see it occur in the next few weeks- month.

It is a scenario nothing more.. but I thought I would post it for fun, rather than come on the board after and say  "yeah I thought it would do that" but maybe I should have put a disclaimer something along the lines of "I am an idiot - so are you if you follow my "possible scenario" out with skin in the game" or something along those lines...

Anyway it was for prosperity as much as anythingn else... and it will be interesting to see how the price action does work out... and where any possible stickypoint are... it could just blow a top and fly straight up, or not , who knows...

I got in when BTC was under $100, only a few nothing huge.. but I have not sold, not once… Alts sure I buy and sell , but BTC I have only ever bought more here and there if I can afford a few more pennies now and then…

I think what I really shoudl have just posted was
CHOO CHOOOOOO MFERS! !!!

Yup two different set of Fibs retracements tracing back over two time frames, ie the last two big moves... some of the retracement lines intersect, plus just drawing some lines and looking at the channels it seems to be bouncing around in... and looking at the chart...  
Do not get me wrong, I am not stating this is 100% , far from it, but I am saying it could be a useful indicator along with the others,  market depth=walls ,volume etc and whatever other lagging indicators one feels does it for them...MACD stoch etc... personally I have a few and I like the Fib retracement lines though because they do seem to fairly often describe (even predict)  shorter term moves and bounces inbetween channels... there is of course a case for targets set around the fibonacci retracements based soley on the self-fulfilling phenomenon ; )  

I am more of a fundamentals guy, but like a chart too..

Yeah Mandelbrot - what a guy...  there really are patterns everywhere.

Bitstamp

Upside breakout scenario.

We are flirting and have been bouncing around $820 and there seems to be some form of resistance here, it is a little sticky..trading sideways into a channel around $820

If we go continue to go up from here we may go from this $825 (ISH)  channel top we have been in trading sideways and go up to  $840 -$858 then there may be some resistance

If we go up from there

$840- $858  then I think we could trade in-between there up to $880 -$885 and see more resistance, if we break that then it is set for hitting the $900 - this is a psychological resistance point..

If there is a break out and if we go past $900 and break $910 -$915 then it has a chance to go onto break $928 and from there maybe we see a real break for $945 - $970 - $991 + then things get intersting...

I see us going up , but ...

Downside scenario from this current channel I can see the possible resistance/support levels
$825
$817
$800 psychological
$775 ish
$757 ish
$749
$725
??

Edit.... or for now we see more of this sideways tading within a channel $775- $820  until something goes bump in the night.

Ayeeeee

Wrongamundo

 

Think that sounds about right for now anyhow... something is going to have to give, soonish though.. Choooo Choooo

rumors (confirmed) about btce closing due to russian laws.  Think Russia is more and more priced out already

btcchina drops bank deposits again.  I do not think that it has even been priced in yet that they started accepting them..

Someone says they have cracked EC. Unlikely , at least in public and at least in the next few years, and also it is not just Bitcoin that would be in "trouble" if SHA 256 or EC are broken (in public)

Someone claims someone has exploited the 'vulnerability' mentioned in the other thread.  This would be big, however unlikely event though..I think the " " around the word "vulnerability" is right

Updates on FBI coin dumping. Cheap coins.... woop

A bunch of coins move or 'days destroyed' on the blockchain.  Hmmmm......

Someone else is arrested.  Would not surprise me...

News from the hearing about excessive regulation which will discourage small business or consumer usage of bitcoin. I see light touch regulations coming....

PBOC says something about corporate bank accounts and bitcoin (this is the big one). I think China has already been priced out..

Something happens to BitPay. Would not be amazing news, but they seem pretty solid and they would get replaced..

China banking defaults - I am interested to see how a banking default  (or other economic event) would play out for Bitcoin...  the markets have already been a little jittery as it is past few days (thanks Benji)

I would love to see it but I cannot see capital flight going into Bitcoin, not at this moment, I can see money flowing into PM's , Swiss Franc, Yen, not so sure about US T bonds this time around.... but I cannot imagine people looking for a safe harbour to sit out the storm will be parking their money in BTC...not at this point in time...  so I guess if there is an event outside of Bitcoin, and people are scrambling to cover positions and margin calls on their portfolios at large, then I am curious to see if there will be people pulling their Bitcoin investments to cover their positions, or even just to be sitting on fiat.  What happens when the dust settles though.....

2 hour chart?

edit: not sure what set up you are using but if you go here http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btcchina/btccny and click on 2 hour you can see....a similar view,  if you click on 6 or 12 hour, you can see the last time there was this volume Btc China BTC/CNY was in mid Dec 2013 ...(fake or not)

It is still quite something to see though.....

It has obviously given the guy in the photo the horn and all (Edit: Kill me now)

holy....

Yeah the quotes were cherry pickings for the "journalist" classic FUD

Modern day hack journalism, how embarrassing for the jorno that wrote that : ) and that is confirmed.

Bears are normally to be found in the woods with their pants around their ankles ; )


So I heard anyway

 

Ah I see... on the same boating trip that you mis-laid your private keys for all of your Cryptos I assume...  these boating trips can be a real hazard..

he certainly has some sort of syndrome...

Talking of which where is Proudhon? I miss him   

Ok I am taking the bait....  what happened?