Good point. I've tried to make a metric that combines the price (aka final market cap) and current market cap metrics into one. Something like:


If parameter X is reasonable, this should theoretically be the best metric, as both the current number of coins and the eventual number (probably infinite) have their biases.

No of course they did not. Many have spoken out, some lost their lives for it. Respect the martyrs and shut up, please.

The truth is about to hit you hard. With one minute google search you will find enough to read to permanently change your thinking about this subject. The condition is, of course, that you have the cognitive ability to understand what you read, and some background in science to verify the hard evidence. But most of people have those. The problem is their brainwash. (Somebody better versed in this area can explain, I lack the correct words.)

I've begun to think that the reason why more and more unbelievable things are propagated as truth in mass media, is to gauge the individual people's reactions via social media. You are graded in a scale of most gullible to least gullible. This list is kept for future purposes. Then there is a breaking point when you decide to actively disbelieve everything, the attitude that if it's on the mass media, it is more likely false than true, and anyway not good for me. That is a point of no return, your life has just started.  

Wow! So much money has been gifted and people made happy! This makes me also happy. Sorry I haven't had the opportunity to update the table in the OP yet, since yesterday we started the Summer Retreat in Malla and the first day closed at about 11 am when people began to go to sleep after waiting for breakfast in vain for 2 hours (it was promised at 9 am but there were issues...)

This is not actually true, even though I also intuitively felt like that before doing the numbers.

The trendline that best fits the data of Monero's all time daily volume weighted average prices, is as follows:

power:
y = 4,991x^1,012
R² = 0,79428
trendline price = 0.0059

Other candidates for trendline have lower R² values but show nevertheless also a strong growth trend.

exponential:
y = 53,351e0,0253x
R² = 0,58939
trendline price = 0.0088

linear:
y = 4,0295x + 88,437
R² = 0,47038
trendline price = 0.0054

Truth does not matter. The U.S. demolished WTC 1, 2 and 7, blaming it on ragheads that supposedly flew 2 planes towards WTC 1 and 2. (Note that the number of buildings demolished exceeds the number of planes by 1.) As a consequence, billions of security searches are now conducted throughout the world annually, with the main goal of conditioning people to accept ridiculous and unfounded orders as a part of their job, and ridiculous and unfounded procedures as a condition of exercising a very basic human right - to travel around the world. (And this was just an example, the real atrocities are found in other parts of Patriot Act, nicely prepared before the event.)

Thank you for taking care of my castle. The manor dates back to the 1200s and the walls of the current building from 1600s. It was enlarged to its current glory in 1880, after which it functioned nearly a century as a private and public building without major repairs. The owner prior to me, bought it in 1999 and spent about 1 million dollars to the structural renovation, for which reason the inside of the building mostly resembles a bunker now. It will be restored to a greater glory than ever, as soon as I feel it is prudent to allocate the $5-10 million towards the effort.

There will hopefully be pictures about our current summer retreat soon in the instagram page.

Yeah, just wait until you see the pictures. Serje, our professional roommaker, has opened instagram so cant wait!

This has been seen before in many sectors. Take energy, for example. Medicine. Nuclear physics. Climate "science". What I mean is that the bright minds are harnessed to work together, towards some goal that is not achievable, not made achievable, is not important, or even true. This becomes the "only supported way" to work in that field. So real science, with the base in reality, is almost ground to a standstill. World has functioning water car - but the inventor is murdered instead of acclaimed. Great majority of medicines are useless and dangerous. Yet the alternative cures are suppressed. Climate hogwash still cannot be officially criticized, even though long ago it was proven to be a lie. Made up lie, for the purpose of legistlating more control and human rights violations. The list could go on and on.

What people need is a coin that is easy to use. You cannot, just cannot lose your keys no matter what. Still, they are very hard for thieves to steal. And it must be anonymous, because that is what Bitcoin is lacking. It does not need to have any features. Gold has attributes, but no features.

Ethereum is sucking talent to sit on fat cushions, to be fed by printing-money lords. People that could make a difference if they were not allured by monthly salary.

I think the latter outcome is more according to the rules (one forum recipient would have sufficed).

As for me, I had sworn to myself that if I receive back, it will be used for cigars (where else do these wonderful ideas come from...?  ) but then I realized that Carlton Banks is a good solid guy and a voice of reason. So he will receive the 50mBTC that Otoh graciously gave me.

Once again, a possible distribution of the moneros:


Because there is no direct data to be found, this is based on:
- the number of moneros (public)
- the number of users (recently estimated based on data, see prev post)
- estimation that power law holds, which means, among others, that 1% owns 50%
- due to information found during recent attempts to compile a richlist, extra coins are added to the top 3% (this can be "democratic" if the coins are found in the 1000-20000 XMR segment or "top-heavy" if they belong to ones owning 20000+ XMR)

Not many bitcoins are in weak hands anymore. Therefore the low volume. If someone sells to manipulate it lower, he cannot buy back at a profit. As a result, that is not happening. Even a trickle of new money would catapult it way past the ATH. That has not happened for months though. So we wait.

Soon you will have to sleep. And that will be my feast. Uninterrupted Monero buying without competitor. Mmmm.......

Even you: as long as you are accumulating (let's say an altcoin), you erect sell walls and fud. When you are done, you let it fly.

Their net accumulation is soon over, perhaps by the next halving.

Monero devs have recently published the download stats for the last weeks, and these support markedly higher adoption than the previous consensus estimate of 8,000.

I have been doing the downloads vs. users analysis with Bitcoin in the past, and found a rough estimate that adoption is 1/3 of the downloads of a mandatory update. (I don't know where the 2/3 go but this is what the data has suggested in the past ).

So if we take the blockchain bootstrap downloads, the total number of users should be around 14,000.

For client downloads, we are talking perhaps about 17,500 / 6 new users in 3 weeks, which would be 3,000. (15,000 downloads + 2,500 compiled, divided by 3 and further divided by 2 because some of them just go to existing users anyway).

Then there is the change in the exchange accounts that do not have outside wallet at all. This is probably not large, because 3 weeks have been a general downtrend. But I'd still estimate that it has gone up a little because there's more exchanges now. Like 500-1,000.

All in all, my very rough calculation (method 1) gives 14,000, and (method 2) gives 8000 + 3000 + 500 = 11,500.


A very rough average of these methods is 12,500 current owners.

- Since the last calculation in 2014-7-17, the number has grown by 4,500 (56%).
 
- The internal growth rate has been 2.26% during the period, compared to 5.45% all-time-average of XMR (and 0.6% of BTC since 2010-1-1)

- Since the BTC/XMR has been in a decline during this period, the average stash has gone from 267 XMR to 207 XMR, and its BTC equivalent value from BTC1.35 to BTC0.78. Both have been in a secular downtrend and the recent figures are all-time-lows.

- BTC0.78 is only $450, and declining. This is at odds with Metcalfe's Law that says that the average goes up when adoption goes up.

- Inflation is 21,8kXMR == BTC82. Growth of userbase is 275/day. If we assume that each new user buys for $200 (BTC0.35), the new users will extinguish 118% of the supply. Yes, it has already been the case for 3 weeks that new users buy more than the whole mining output.

- In 30 days, given current growth of userbase (2.26%/day), and decline of inflation (-0.19%/day), the new buying will account for 244% of the supply. This is in only 30 days - the situation will be more out-of-sync when more time passes.

- That all newcomers get their coins + the price has even been in a downtrend, is only possible because of existing owners net selling. Since I know quite a lot of existing owners that have been net buyers, the rest of the pack has to have been selling with both hands to account for both the newcomers and the accumulating whales. (As per my convention, it does not matter who the whales are and if they have bought or mined, and with what equipment - if they do not sell 100%, they are accumulating, and withholding coins from the market, indirectly causing the speculators to sell more).

- When I wrote my last speculation update hardly more than 24 hours ago spelling continuing capitulation, I did not have the access to the information that Monero adoption is actually growing in the last weeks despite the downtrend in price. These numbers really made it! If Monero had 8000 users then and the growth for 1 more year was 0.6% per day, similar to bitcoin, it would have 70,000 users. But with 2.26% growth...................29 million users. This might be a good investment or hedge with some of your bitcoin. At least Bitcoinworld people can always do it in 5 minutes and no ID. This is not to be underestimated.

- I mean, for me there is not much of a difference if a coin has 50% more or less users now. But if it has 300 times more users in one year, it is probably at least 10 times more valuable right now than the current trading range we are in.



To compile and process this information takes a lot of time and I am not getting paid, neither I mind, since I would have done it anyway for my own purposes. I see the conclusions from the nice tables and graphs from my screen. But you don't. The significance of the things presented here is easily missed without seeing the graphs. That is however too much to ask from me. There is an initiative that I might be teamworking with somebody who polishes my important posts and embellishes them with pics. If this sounds valuable to you, chime in.

That does not contradict my point at all.

I hold a few currencies, let's say USD, EUR, silver, gold, BTC and XMR. If anyone gave me a freebie in any of these, I would keep it and not search to convert it until in the next rebalancing.

If the freebie was in any of the other currencies, I would seek to convert it to some of the ones mentioned, to ease accounting.

Even if it was in the list, if it was large in sum, I would have to do the rebalancing sooner, converting some of it to the other currencies.

If it is very large, even if it was BTC, I would sell a part of it to keep a balance in my currency/metal/RE/project portfolio.

So the point remains. What coins you regard fit for investing, is a different set than what you might receive as freebies (even if counting botnet gains as "freebies" is disingenious, since mining a coin with your stolen resource is a clear business decision, it is just not an investment decision).

I have received genuine freebies such as 35,000 XRP last year, and the day I received it, I sold them for BTC.

To make giving freebies a good way to increase the popularity of a coin, you have to make a very good scheme, and nobody has succeeded so far. I am trying with personal circular donations here. That the giveaway is happening only via trusted personal relations instead of an open application, is a step in an uncharted territory, after all the charted territory has been proven to not work

Oh, it was only 1 year chart. Now I'm starting to believe..!

I said I don't like the people in the beginning of the food chain to donate all to charities, just because they are lazy and conditioned to believe that "it is the right thing to do".

Because if they did, the money would never reach people like you, who can use small amounts so cleverly and really make a difference, make many people happy and provide an example to be listed in this thread as well!

I think we are proceeding fine now!

Very good Just imagine if everybody split up their gift so that in the end we would have 100 people made happy!

I may be honestly wrong (luckily it's not my demise because I am too big to heed to my own advice) but that sounds like witchcraft to me..

Theory strongly says that it is irrelevant, given perfect markets (which in the case of Monero actually is true!).

People earn in what they happen to get, and save in what they want. If these two coins do not coincide, they make a conversion between earning and saving.