Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[N12]

good news = price drop #logic

What good news? Why do you people (not you in particular) all think you are so clever that even if "fresh" news played a large role, even assuming that there are no insider front runners, who are you to say what is important and what is not, or even whether a piece is overwhelmingly good or bad? How do you tell if something has been priced in, and how long does that take? Do you have a framework to put everything in relation? News is even more subjective than technical analysis, and as far as I can tell it's one of the worst ways to trade.

[JayJuanGee]

good news = price drop #logic

What good news? Why do you people (not you in particular) all think you are so clever that even if "fresh" news played a large role, even assuming that there are no insider front runners, who are you to say what is important and what is not, or even whether a piece is overwhelmingly good or bad? How do you tell if something has been priced in, and how long does that take? Do you have a framework to put everything in relation? News is even more subjective than technical analysis, and as far as I can tell it's one of the worst ways to trade.

That's why I just buy and buy and buy and I hodl and hodl and hodl... b/c I can neither understand TA NOR news (determining whether it's good or bad news).      

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[blatchcorn]

good news = price drop #logic

What good news? Why do you people (not you in particular) all think you are so clever that even if "fresh" news played a large role, even assuming that there are no insider front runners, who are you to say what is important and what is not, or even whether a piece is overwhelmingly good or bad? How do you tell if something has been priced in, and how long does that take? Do you have a framework to put everything in relation? News is even more subjective than technical analysis, and as far as I can tell it's one of the worst ways to trade.

What is confusing about Bitcoin is that good news has no effect on price, but bad news sends the price down 

[N12]

good news = price drop #logic

What good news? Why do you people (not you in particular) all think you are so clever that even if "fresh" news played a large role, even assuming that there are no insider front runners, who are you to say what is important and what is not, or even whether a piece is overwhelmingly good or bad? How do you tell if something has been priced in, and how long does that take? Do you have a framework to put everything in relation? News is even more subjective than technical analysis, and as far as I can tell it's one of the worst ways to trade.

What is confusing about Bitcoin is that good news has no effect on price, but bad news sends the price down 

In my view, that's because because of sentiment and technical analysis. Unless we're in a parabolic chasing new alltime highs (which is most of the time), positive news usually have little effect, simply because we're usually neutral or bearish then.

Here's one way to think of sentiment: When the pool of bullish people has been exhausted and noone has money left to buy, then we have a whole bunch of cheerleaders screaming moon train while building up insane expectations that inevitably, in most cases become disappointed simply by the price not moving for too long, or even moving counter their expectation. This creates disappointment, and now you can imagine what happens progressively as people start realizing their profits as the cognitive dissonance becomes too much to bear. Eventually, irrationality to the upside is followed by irrationality to the downside because so much disillusionment has been bred. To move up now, we need a good deal of this irrationality to the downside, or we need new bulls with new money because right now, we're trading pretty much the same USD back and forth.

tl;dr When shit isn't going parabolic, noone really cares too much. That's just how we humans are with regard to super volatile risk assets like Bitcoin.

[cbeast]

The price goes up magically when people buy and down magically when people sell.

[N12]

Interesting divergence between Huobi and everyone else right now. About 2% deviation.

[Erdogan]

Huobi now 6 $ higher than stamp, if you can trust the yuan/dollar conversion used on bitcoinwisdom.

[johnwest]

The price goes up magically when people buy and down magically when people sell.

Small investor don't have any effect on market movement.
Whales and very big hedge funds who move market mostly times.

[Torque]

The correlation lately of the bitcoin market with the U.S. stock market has been a little concerning.

[empowering]

good news = price drop #logic

What good news? Why do you people (not you in particular) all think you are so clever that even if "fresh" news played a large role, even assuming that there are no insider front runners, who are you to say what is important and what is not, or even whether a piece is overwhelmingly good or bad? How do you tell if something has been priced in, and how long does that take? Do you have a framework to put everything in relation? News is even more subjective than technical analysis, and as far as I can tell it's one of the worst ways to trade.

Can we have NO MORE SPECULATION ON THIS THREAD PLEASE!!   is that what you mean?

Just checking.

[N12]

The correlation lately of the bitcoin market with the U.S. stock market has been a little concerning.

I think Bitcoin is a risk asset and losely correlated with the broader economy, same as gold. (credit goes to waveaddict btw). That is, I believe if the stock market goes into the toilet, Bitcoin would have a much harder time than it has so far. It's probably something that you put money in when you have an excess, and pull money out when you lack it.

good news = price drop #logic

What good news? Why do you people (not you in particular) all think you are so clever that even if "fresh" news played a large role, even assuming that there are no insider front runners, who are you to say what is important and what is not, or even whether a piece is overwhelmingly good or bad? How do you tell if something has been priced in, and how long does that take? Do you have a framework to put everything in relation? News is even more subjective than technical analysis, and as far as I can tell it's one of the worst ways to trade.

Can we have NO MORE SPECULATION ON THIS THREAD PLEASE!!   is that what you mean?

Just checking.

Why, not at all. I much prefer it to low value content like pictures of whatever. I don't want to stifle anything. I'm just voicing my thoughts that maybe things are much more complicated with news than commonly thought. Maybe there is logic in what is happening.

[hdbuck]

good news = price drop #logic

What good news? Why do you people (not you in particular) all think you are so clever that even if "fresh" news played a large role, even assuming that there are no insider front runners, who are you to say what is important and what is not, or even whether a piece is overwhelmingly good or bad? How do you tell if something has been priced in, and how long does that take? Do you have a framework to put everything in relation? News is even more subjective than technical analysis, and as far as I can tell it's one of the worst ways to trade.

[cbeast]

The price goes up magically when people buy and down magically when people sell.

Small investor don't have any effect on market movement.
Whales and very big hedge funds who move market mostly times.

Yet lower volume tends to drop the price slowly over time. The volume these days is almost non-existent. Nobody is buying or selling much. This is like how the tide goes out right before a big tsunami.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[barbs]

I really wish these whales would dump the shit out of the orderbook already

[johnwest]

The price goes up magically when people buy and down magically when people sell.

Small investor don't have any effect on market movement.
Whales and very big hedge funds who move market mostly times.

Yet lower volume tends to drop the price slowly over time. The volume these days is almost non-existent. Nobody is buying or selling much. This is like how the tide goes out right before a big tsunami.

I agree fully with you, volume also decreasing regularly just 1 or 2 day big volume and then no volume at all.
This is the main problem we are facing in Bitcoin trading, without volume we can't expect much price movement.

[rpietila]

I agree fully with you, volume also decreasing regularly just 1 or 2 day big volume and then no volume at all.
This is the main problem we are facing in Bitcoin trading, without volume we can't expect much price movement.

Not many bitcoins are in weak hands anymore. Therefore the low volume. If someone sells to manipulate it lower, he cannot buy back at a profit. As a result, that is not happening. Even a trickle of new money would catapult it way past the ATH. That has not happened for months though. So we wait.

[lay785]

why are the chinese exchanges selling bitcoins for a much higher price than western exchanges eg. Huobi bitcoins cost close to $586USD while on bitstamp bitcoins are selling for $578 - thats an $8 difference...

edit: someone beat me to asking this.

[JorgeStolfi]

Huobi now 6 $ higher than stamp, if you can trust the yuan/dollar conversion used on bitcoinwisdom.

Bitcoinwisdom says they get the conversion rate from some public source every day.  But arbitragers have their own rate, which presumably depends on withdrawal fees etc.