rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[EuroTrash]

I just see more and more selling pressure in the 600s (fake or not) and not much buying pressure atm. I am a tad worried for the possibility of another step down. OTOH we are in the first half of August which I expect to be quiet* if not slightly downwards (because people spend instead of saving).

* 2012 was different IMO because Pirateat40's final fuckup caused both spike and crash.

Having said that, I stay in coins - the weather is just too warm and nice to spend it trading, or worrying about having a considerable amount of fiat in an exchange.

[ensurance982]

I just see more and more selling pressure in the 600s (fake or not) and not much buying pressure atm. I am a tad worried for the possibility of another step down. OTOH we are in the first half of August which I expect to be quiet* if not slightly downwards (because people spend instead of saving).

* 2012 was different IMO because Pirateat40's final fuckup caused both spike and crash.

Having said that, I stay in coins - the weather is just too warm and nice to spend it trading, or worrying about having a considerable amount of fiat in an exchange.

I think that's a healthy sentiment! I think it's remarkable, that none of those minor dumps or mini-crashes of $10 cause the market to panic. It's rather stable and we don't seem to go below $580 as of now. Which is a strong sign. But I'd like to see some of those walls at $600, $610, etc. tested! They're making me uncomfortable!

[aminorex]

In case of a global Ebola outbreak...Sound money will be weapons, ammo, canned food and medicines. The odds for survival in such a situation are more in favour of the most cruel and fittest men than in favour a bunch of bitcoin nerds...

It's not a zombie apocalypse.  More like the spanish flu epidemic.

Get a grip dude.  You watch too much Hollywood.

[AlexGR]

Or a sociopathically delusional one.
In case of a global Ebola outbreak, who gives a fuck about our little money experiment?

History shows that civilization doesn't stop due to global anomalies, wars, disease, financial metldowns etc. Neither will Bitcoin - which is far more than our "little money experiment". Show will go on - as always. The only question is whether we'll be part of the show or not...

Sound money will be weapons, ammo, canned food and medicines. The odds for survival in such a situation are more in favour of the most cruel and fittest men than in favour a bunch of bitcoin nerds like you and me, so pray your gods we will never have to witness such a catastrophic event in our lifetime.

Guns and canned food won't really save one from a pandemic virus. Neither will medicine (for other stuff).

True and in any catastrophic event , common things required for sustaining life will be much valuable than any crypto.

And how will you buy them, if government has nullified -by law- the value of paper currency in favor of electronic currencies, as to "prevent people from spreading the virus"?

Either gold/silver, or cryptos. Or plain' old bartering of one thing with another. We'll see how it goes, if it ever materializes as a global eventuality. Let's hope that it doesn't though.

[MoreFun]

So, it seems SecondMarket hasn't bought coins for 3 months now, is that accurate? Could this be because everyone's waiting for a definitive direction we're going or maybe the summer where the markets supposedly hibernate?
(Sorry to disturb your castle-talk!)

This should be question for Silbert.

[EuroTrash]

In case of a global Ebola outbreak...Sound money will be weapons, ammo, canned food and medicines. The odds for survival in such a situation are more in favour of the most cruel and fittest men than in favour a bunch of bitcoin nerds...

It's not a zombie apocalypse.  More like the spanish flu epidemic.

Get a grip dude.  You watch too much Hollywood.

Lol

The original author was talking 30-60% population reduction, which I can't see happening without subsequent mass fear, hiding, suspicion, riots, revolts, pillaging and the like.

[BowieMan]

I have found another castle for you rpietila!!

http://metro.co.uk/2014/08/08/this-cheap-1-2m-castle-in-scotland-will-cost-you-less-than-a-flat-in-london-4824671/

I think it also needs a bit of work.. but all the same. It's a nice castle! Perhaps supernode 2?

That's a great castle! It would be a great place for another Bitcoin embassy, if only those castles weren't so far off any major city! But a castle itself is a great symbol. It stands for money, safety, royalty... This is what we need!

[rpietila]

Thank you for taking care of my castle. The manor dates back to the 1200s and the walls of the current building from 1600s. It was enlarged to its current glory in 1880, after which it functioned nearly a century as a private and public building without major repairs. The owner prior to me, bought it in 1999 and spent about 1 million dollars to the structural renovation, for which reason the inside of the building mostly resembles a bunker now. It will be restored to a greater glory than ever, as soon as I feel it is prudent to allocate the $5-10 million towards the effort.

There will hopefully be pictures about our current summer retreat soon in the instagram page.

[BowieMan]

Thank you for taking care of my castle. The manor dates back to the 1200s and the walls of the current building from 1600s. It was enlarged to its current glory in 1880, after which it functioned nearly a century as a private and public building without major repairs. The owner prior to me, bought it in 1999 and spent about 1 million dollars to the structural renovation, for which reason the inside of the building mostly resembles a bunker now. It will be restored to a greater glory than ever, as soon as I feel it is prudent to allocate the $5-10 million towards the effort.

There will hopefully be pictures about our current summer retreat soon in the instagram page.

That's a great thing you've got those plans for your castle. But I still hope you don't depend on the Bitcoin price to rise even more in order to hold the castle as is it currently already exists! It would be a pity to lose that symbol of Bitcoin wealth!

[pa]

With the price moving sideways for so long, how long before the trendline is falsified? At some point, we'll have to conclude that an exponential model no longer applies, won't we? What if the vertical part of the S-curve already happened (in 2013) and we are now in a slow-growth phase approaching saturation?

I'm hodling, but for the first time in a long time I wonder whether bitcoin will ever have mass appeal. Will it be like Linux--fascinating to geeks but a bit too complicated for ordinary folk to adopt?

[ArticMine]

With the price moving sideways for so long, how long before the trendline is falsified? At some point, we'll have to conclude that an exponential model no longer applies, won't we? What if the vertical part of the S-curve already happened (in 2013) and we are now in a slow-growth phase approaching saturation?

I'm hodling, but for the first time in a long time I wonder whether bitcoin will ever have mass appeal. Will it be like Linux--fascinating to geeks but a bit too complicated for ordinary folk to adopt?

GNU/Linux on the desktop has a 1.68% market share. For Bitcoin to have a similar market share of the world M1 money supply one would need a XBT/USD rate in the neighbourhood of 17,000 or more. So we have a ways to go yet with "just the geeks".

 

[BTCtrader71]

With the price moving sideways for so long, how long before the trendline is falsified? At some point, we'll have to conclude that an exponential model no longer applies, won't we? What if the vertical part of the S-curve already happened (in 2013) and we are now in a slow-growth phase approaching saturation?

I'm hodling, but for the first time in a long time I wonder whether bitcoin will ever have mass appeal. Will it be like Linux--fascinating to geeks but a bit too complicated for ordinary folk to adopt?

I remember wondering during the run-up above $1000 in November-December whether the trendline had been falsified and we were going to rise up even faster than previously expected. I immediately reminded myself that tremendous fluctuations both above and below the trendline are expected. I even said to myself that at some point in the future I'd probably be questioning the trend line due to a downtrend ... and here we are!

iow the current market is far from falsifying the trendline model. Keep hodling.

[SlipperySlope]

The logistic model of bitcoin prices that I maintain shows a relatively large deviation downwards from the trendline that I hand fit back in November 2013. I plan to refit the trendline after the peak of the next  bubble whenever that is. It is difficult for me to believe that we are anywhere near the midpoint of adoption.

My model indicates that the trend price for today is $2,405 and obviously we are far beneath that price on Bitstamp.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c

The adjusted number of bitcoin transactions chart from Blockchain.info suggests that fundamentally Bitcoin is resuming transaction quantity growth in the past few weeks . . .

[rpietila]

An interesting discussion concerning 9/11 was moderated away from my thread.

I never intended to have a discussion, it is a disgusting subject. So many people still believe the lie that is touted by the administration that murdered those people there, the same one trying to kill enough people in Ukraine to make it believable that Putin would be provoked by it to start a war that only the banksters want.   Maranata!

[Its About Sharing]

An interesting discussion concerning 9/11 was moderated away from my thread.

I never intended to have a discussion, it is a disgusting subject. So many people still believe the lie that is touted by the administration that murdered those people there, the same one trying to kill enough people in Ukraine to make it believable that Putin would be provoked by it to start a war that only the banksters want.   Maranata!

+1 Great points. Keep the reminder going...

LOL at the cognitive dissonance you are creating in people who respect and follow you, suddenly having to face a truth they had avoided.
And what about those using constant logical fallacies in their arguments suddenly. Hmmm, sounds like an important forum to control...

Its about sharing

[HarmonLi]

The logistic model of bitcoin prices that I maintain shows a relatively large deviation downwards from the trendline that I hand fit back in November 2013. I plan to refit the trendline after the peak of the next  bubble whenever that is. It is difficult for me to believe that we are anywhere near the midpoint of adoption.

My model indicates that the trend price for today is $2,405 and obviously we are far beneath that price on Bitstamp.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c

The adjusted number of bitcoin transactions chart from Blockchain.info suggests that fundamentally Bitcoin is resuming transaction quantity growth in the past few weeks . . .

That's a very nice graph! I think Bitcoin is indeed starting to grow again. there are a lot of people on holiday talking about Bitcoin with their spouses or people they meet in the ClubMed, and so people are opening up their own wallets. We'll see a large flow of new money when those people got home and get their first 1-2 paychecks after the holidays. Good times ahead!!!

[rpietila]

Russians are very peaceful people, but they unlucky with their neighbors: all of them keep provoking them into  wars. That's how Russia become the biggest country in the world. Because of provocateur neighbors. The Finnish people are guilty of this too: you provoked them in 1939 to grab part of your country. You should be ashamed of it.

I don't know the truth about 1939, obviously as a Finn it is difficult for me to find out due to the official version being so ingrained since primary school.

But I am very ashamed of the current actions of our Prime Minister and many leading politicians, because during my conscious age, Russia has never provoked Finland, and always has acted very rationally and peacefully, trying to solidify good trade relations (that were lost with the fall of the Soviet Union). Now these foolish guardians of my motherland are seemingly trying hard to squander all this trust - developed over a generation - in one year, without getting anything in return. Well, themselves they receive a reward for sure, but the Finnish people receive suffering.

In the old times that sort of people were called traitors.

[SlipperySlope]

Here is a two-year, 7-day moving average, log chart of the number of unique Bitcoin addresses used, which is provided by Blockchain.info. Note the growth in the most recent few weeks which confirms the growth in Bitcoin transaction quantity noted in a previous post. Metcalfe's Law would indicate higher bitcoin prices, unless this fundamental trend reverses. Metcalfe's Law, as interpreted by Peter R for Bitcoin, says that prices are related to the square of the number of participants, i.e. nodes in an economic network.

[HarmonLi]

Here is a two-year, 7-day moving average, log chart of the number of unique Bitcoin addresses used, which is provided by Blockchain.info. Note the growth in the most recent few weeks which confirms the growth in Bitcoin transaction quantity noted in a previous post. Metcalfe's Law would indicate higher bitcoin prices, unless this fundamental trend reverses. Metcalfe's Law, as interpreted by Peter R for Bitcoin, says that prices are related to the square of the number of participants, i.e. nodes in an economic network.
[image removed]

How are they actually calculating the number of unique Bitcoin addresses used? I mean, if a Bitcoin address has been used, it can't be unused. Or is it simply the number of addresses that have been used within those 7 days?

[Carlton Banks]

Russians are very peaceful people, but they unlucky with their neighbors: all of them keep provoking them into  wars. That's how Russia become the biggest country in the world. Because of provocateur neighbors. The Finnish people are guilty of this too: you provoked them in 1939 to grab part of your country. You should be ashamed of it.

I don't know the truth about 1939, obviously as a Finn it is difficult for me to find out due to the official version being so ingrained since primary school.

But I am very ashamed of the current actions of our Prime Minister and many leading politicians, because during my conscious age, Russia has never provoked Finland, and always has acted very rationally and peacefully, trying to solidify good trade relations (that were lost with the fall of the Soviet Union). Now these foolish guardians of my motherland are seemingly trying hard to squander all this trust - developed over a generation - in one year, without getting anything in return. Well, themselves they receive a reward for sure, but the Finnish people receive suffering.

If you look at the last ~1000 years of history, there is a pattern of Russia and the western European monarchies using those countries that are geographically inbetween them as either cats paws or battlefields (I'm sure as a Finn you will be aware of the countless wars between Russia and Sweden, it could easily be interpreted as one long war by both against Finland itself). The issue was always something different, but is usually about as believable as so many attributed causes of wars.