We are in the big downslope on the bubble phase chart. Proof is by apophenia. Question is what is the baseline. On a linear baseline we're all doomed and the bears will gnaw our bones. A linear baseline is utterly irrational, in my opinion. The admissible choices are (1) logarithmic baseline in exp(5/4), and (2) logistic baseline (some parameters for which remain unanalyzed).
Posts like these need a layman's terms summary at the end. Laymans terms- This shizz just got real! ; ) |
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or even $7000 +
I would say $7000 is a little ambitious in the next 6 months at least unless there are major events which are going to give Bitcoin positive effects then it would be very difficult to reach that amount in such a small amount of time. I agree, ambitious for sure...but.... if you take a look at the longterm chart, and see what Bitcoin has done to date. It has gone from from one all time high to another every 7ish months or so...there is a peak at new ATH, followed by a dip/crash and then 7ish months later it hits a new ATH, which is many times the previous ATH, followed by another dip... of course past behaviour is not the best indicator for future behaviour, but it is an indicator all the same. If the network effect keeps up and the adoption rate keeps growing exponentially as they have done up until this point, then $7000 is in June-ish would make a lot of sense, from a historical point of view, it would not look out of place in any way on the all time chart if the trend from 09 continues forward. If things like todays news do not derail the adoption, and investment/adoption from the fund managers and "wall street" et al then I can see history repeating itself another cycle, every year since 2009 it has surprised people... volatile for sure but still hitting those exponentially higher ATH's almost like clockwork every sevenish months later than the last one...we had our last ATH Dec 13, so guess we will have to wait and see... I cannot see Bitcoin being at saturation at this point, nowhere near. That's a observation I haven't seen before about the 7 month prediction I think that's pretty plausible and could be done but I think any media attention is going to bring in people and they are going to research more and see why Bitcoin is so popular Bitcoin wasn't even very well known a few months ago but now there seems to be a whole lot bigger in every single country. I think in the next 12 months we will see it exceed $2000. Itsīgoin to 80000000$ by the way after weīre back above the normal 1000$ Itīs a sure bet. Just buy and hodl u canīt lose in this game. Every price is a good price, id doesnīt matter if you pay 800$ or 200$. Just buy and hodl. Sure thing. [/quote] Yeah those graphs are not new to me.... however in my opinion Bitcoin is in its infancy and we have not yet even hit the knee of the curve to even begin the climb up the real "wall" - i.e the steep incline of an adoption growth rate s curve, we are just nearing launch in my opinion, so I cannot see how the price can be in a bubble at this point... I do not think we have seen anything yet. Just my point of view. |
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or even $7000 +
I would say $7000 is a little ambitious in the next 6 months at least unless there are major events which are going to give Bitcoin positive effects then it would be very difficult to reach that amount in such a small amount of time. I agree, ambitious for sure...but.... if you take a look at the longterm chart, and see what Bitcoin has done to date. It has gone from from one all time high to another every 7ish months or so...there is a peak at new ATH, followed by a dip/crash and then 7ish months later it hits a new ATH, which is many times the previous ATH, followed by another dip... of course past behaviour is not the best indicator for future behaviour, but it is an indicator all the same. If the network effect keeps up and the adoption rate keeps growing exponentially as they have done up until this point, then $7000 is in June-ish would make a lot of sense, from a historical point of view, it would not look out of place in any way on the all time chart if the trend from 09 continues forward. If things like todays news do not derail the adoption, and investment/adoption from the fund managers and "wall street" et al then I can see history repeating itself another cycle, every year since 2009 it has surprised people... volatile for sure but still hitting those exponentially higher ATH's almost like clockwork every sevenish months later than the last one...we had our last ATH Dec 13, so guess we will have to wait and see... I cannot see Bitcoin being at saturation at this point, nowhere near. |
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You must be new here... Read up on silk road. Been trading BTC sense 2011. Bought of silk road once or twice. Dont see the correlation. People see a trusted bitcoin site/committee member arrested along with Russia fud. they get scarred. And dump. I believe in bitcoin understand prices will return. My point only is that their is going to be a rapid sell off soon, and I dont see how anyone can think not. and why do you think we haven't already seen the sell-off? why do you think it takes the market 6+ hours to react to the fud? Ever heard of the word "timezones"? yes but china is at $795, bitstamp is at $760. when china wakes up, they might sell-off to around $760 too. No one knows how much the sell off will be. But do we all agree their will be a sell off coming soon. Only point I was getting at. And yes I bought off the silk road, I dont do drugs, and what I bought was not illegal, Im not to worried.... Oh yeah..ermm I did not inhale either ; ) I do not know.. I love Bitcoin, but at this point I have been looking at charts for too long... and right around now I would really like Bitcoin to receive a swift sharp kick to its bollocks..nothing serious, you know, just knock the wind out of it for a day or two, before it gets up all mad in time to kick Februarys face in, just in time for it to go much ape and show the world who the new playya around town is around June time... We can all dream.. |
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You must be new here... Read up on silk road. Been trading BTC sense 2011. Bought of silk road once or twice. Dont see the correlation. People see a trusted bitcoin site/committee member arrested along with Russia fud. they get scarred. And dump. I believe in bitcoin understand prices will return. My point only is that their is going to be a rapid sell off soon, and I dont see how anyone can think not. and why do you think we haven't already seen the sell-off? why do you think it takes the market 6+ hours to react to the fud? It is all the long term hodl BC'rs need to go and get their shovels and dig up their paper wallets from their stash 'oles before they can sell... takes a long time to dig down 6 ft.. |
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You must be new here... Read up on silk road. Been trading BTC sense 2011. Bought of silk road once or twice. Dont see the correlation. People see a trusted bitcoin site/committee member arrested along with Russia fud. they get scarred. And dump. I believe in bitcoin understand prices will return. My point only is that their is going to be a rapid sell off soon, and I dont see how anyone can think not. just a thought, but with the case we are discussing in mind... I am guessing it is saying things like "bought off silk road once" on a public forum is what gets people in to hot water.. you can use a throw away cash bought lap top, piggyback on a randoms wifi, use a virtual OS and run TOR on it, and do a blind drop blah blah blah and then at the end of it all, go and tell everyone that you have done it on the internet... I am not saying this directly to you.. but it just highlights the issue with being annon on the internet... you are only as annon as you are careful... (or as you need to be I guess...) just a thought. |
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Anyone with knowledge of candlesticks? 
Yeah! Me!!! GAWD EWLP US!HODL!!!!!!!!1: ) good one |
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You mean cannot? Eitherway good! let people panic... it is natural, fear and greed are the fuel of all speculative markets... plus you know the saying of course....when others are fearful it is time to buy..... as long as you believe in the fundamentals, have done your risk analysis, know what you are doing... then this could be a moment of opportunity... always got to be careful trying to catch a falling knife though... timing is everything.... that and luck, which is always tricky when there is a knife involved. |
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The news and forums have not convinced to to stop hodling.
This is the begin of a down trend. 600$ in 6hours. We can but hope... maybe I gunna have to dig some more holes (for some new paper wallets...) |
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THIS IS CRASHNG!! fazrstksy
Like Hammond? or like Senna ? |
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DENIAL ! THIS IS CRASHING !
Do you mean crashing down to say $100 ? or $10 ? $250 $500 or do you mean "crash" to $700 - $600 Or do you mean the big one? ground zero? tsunami, Godzilla on the rampage climbing up the Keiser towers? Just trying to gauge what you define as a crash...just so I am on the same page... because I am poised, should I be ready to run to the end of the garden, in this rain, go into the garage, get the shovel, start digging for my secret stash box where I keep my key for the lock on the other secret stash box which is buried in my neighbours garden 100 miles away, buried in a box underneath their dead dog that I helped kill, I mean bury, and go all the way over there, sneak into their garden, unearth poor decaying Fido, dig even deeper get my secret password for my paper wallet , and then trapse all the way to get my paper wallet which is currently stored in a vault in a swiss bank? so I should drive like a maniac to the airport and get my ass to the land of neutrality and cheese all to get my hands on my encrypted paper wallet, all so I can sell? is that what I should be doing right now? because......I really really cannot be bothered I just had my dinner, have run a bath...about to have a beer, kick back and listen to some tunes... but you know if this is really bad I best get my gear on and get out in that garden with that shovel. "Gunna have to dig some holes" |
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Anyone with knowledge of candlesticks?
I've been confirmed an expert on candlesticks, without going into too much detail, my backtracked TA based on 3 and 5 SMAC values, confirms this is very bad. by bad... do you mean good? I guess it all depends on your outlook. I can confirm that by bad he means it's good that it's not bad, if you know what I mean. No, I confirm it means it's bad, as in it clearly demonstrates bitcoin is crashing, and will probably only begin to stabilize around $100 in the short term. It's good for SHOTRS, though.
ok, so it's good. stop confusing yourself and the matter. |
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Anyone with knowledge of candlesticks? I've been confirmed an expert on candlesticks, without going into too much detail, my backtracked TA based on 3 and 5 SMAC values, confirms this is very bad. by bad... do you mean good? I guess it all depends on your outlook. I can confirm that by bad he means it's good that it's not bad, if you know what I mean. Ahhh... now you see that is what I thought, but then I thought he might have meant that it is good, because it is bad, which is bad, but bad is good, so therfore this bad is a good bad, not a bad bad.... there are known bads, and there are unknown bads.... that is to say there are bads that we know that we do not know, but there are also unknown bads , that is to say bads that we .... ah shit. This is bad. and by that I of course mean... this is GOOD.. again all depends on your point of view... |
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Anyone with knowledge of candlesticks? I've been confirmed an expert on candlesticks, without going into too much detail, my backtracked TA based on 3 and 5 SMAC values, confirms this is very bad. by bad... do you mean good? I guess it all depends on your outlook. |
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Is it time to consider that lead developer Gavin Andresen may have been paid his salary from the Bitcoin Foundation using the same tainted coins that Shrem and SR users "laundered"??
NY ass-hat regulators could keep going right through the blockchain arresting anybody they wish using this logic.
"Get out of NY bitcoin businesses, get out of USA" ... seems to be the message.
Or is the message, Bitcoin away to your hearts content, but launder money or evade taxes and we are coming for you.... they had their warrant since Feb 13 pre the Nov hearings, so seems to me, this is all great news for the guberment, as they now know with confidence that they can trace payments through the blockchain, and catch out the people laundering money for example.. then again it all depends on what evidence they really have at this point, or if these are trumped up charges... if they are trumped up charges, then yeah, get outta dodge could be their message... will have to wait and see what they have got. Either way Hodl regardless is my thinking. |
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Probably will spook the market... but should it? as I recall banks ,bankers, CEO's , fund managers etc are always getting pinched , or not as the case maybe i.e HSBC laundering money for international drug cartels, and for terror networks... and people actually do not seem to care less.... I think if people put it into context they should not freak... but then what people should do and what people actually do, are two different things of course. |
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Oh my lord...
If this is you setting up all these new accounts Carlos, then you are nuttier than squirrel shit (even more so than I already assume at this point)
If this is someone else setting up these accounts to push this firmly into la la land where it belongs then good work...
Either way this is a farce : )
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Interested!
May I ask why? or what you are interested in? I do not understand? did you read the pages and think... oh a obvious scam from an obvious scammer...that has been 100% exposed.... and yet your comment is "interested" ?? I am not sure I get it... am I in the wrong Forum? is this the "I want to be scammed" forum? Is this real life? The evil trolls who continually harass poor old Frictionless would claim that this account is a sock puppet, set up only to make it appear as if people are actually interested. Or it could be a complete newbie who is just writing "interested"on every IPO thread. Thats why I introduced the concept of poetry as a Turing test: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=424724.msg4682342#msg4682342Enjoy! Hi EvilDave.. : ) yeah I have been following this show for a few weeks... Poor FC/Carlos/Scrotax have been cracking me up, I especially love the whole talking to himself episodes, oh and the recent spate of threatening people, that is fun too... funny how now we know his name, that all of a sudden he is a corporate entity, not just an individual schmuck. Was calling him out on sockpuppets the day he started this NEX crap. He is not very good at this lark though, ALL of his details are easily available within a few minutes of looking....not very good idea if you are going to try and rip people off, and on a really public forum and all. The whole thing is quite odd though, I was reading Carlos' CV a few days days back, and I am wondering if he is having some sort of crisis...apart from anything else his behaviour is.....odd for a man of his age. Anyway.. I have got my popcorn.. may even grab a beer or two... |
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Interested!
May I ask why? or what you are interested in? I do not understand? did you read the pages and think... oh a obvious scam from an obvious scammer...that has been 100% exposed.... and yet your comment is "interested" ?? I am not sure I get it... am I in the wrong Forum? is this the "I want to be scammed" forum? Is this real life? |
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Curious, why are you spending your time here if you aren't going to make a reservation.
It's kind of like the guy in the Tesla dealership telling everyone not to buy.
It is a bit like that you are correct!!! hmm now let me think where have I seen this most recently? ah ha! there was this really annoying guy in another forum... really annoying, he had no place there whatsoever by his own admission, but he just would not go away for weeks and weeks he was just going on and on with one bit of BS or misunderstanding after another... no one could work out what he was doing there... and then it clicked, casing the place out, guy was a chancer. ; ) |
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