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4681  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2019, 04:22:23 AM
cannot quote ^^^it properly.
It's not mining elitism, it is how it works since Satoshi made it public.
If you think that owning btc makes you or anyone else a contributor, no it does not (in a POW system), but it does in a POS system where you mine using your stake.
IN POW system miners and node-owners control the system.
Simply owning btc is OK, but you are effectively cut off out of all decision making that might affect your btc.
This is just a statement of fact, nothing personal.


You are taking a technology centric view and ignoring economic soft power.  UASF proved the strength of economic hodlers.  Don't get fooled by Bcash propaganda that miners vote.  They can just fork off and take their hashpower elsewhere and good luck to them.

UASF proved the power of users with nodes, NOT the hodlers. Hodlers were totally out of the loop and were not in the decision making.
In fact, economic powers such as coinbase and barry silbert's fund were not able to do anything because nodes said (indirectly) that they will go with the core and it was not economical for miners to go and do a split.
They would have been losing many millions a day. It is a bit funny that you are indirectly arguing for POS (power to hodlers) while saying that POW is better. No paradox here?

"UASF stands for User Activated Soft Fork.
It’s a mechanism where the activation time of a soft fork occurs on a specified date enforced by full nodes; a concept sometimes referred to as the economic majority."
https://cointelegraph.com/explained/uasf-vs-uahf-explained

"The network is robust in its unstructured simplicity. Nodes work all at once with little coordination. They do not need to be identified, since messages are not routed to any particular place and only need to be delivered on a best effort basis. Nodes can leave and rejoin the network at will, accepting the proof-of-work chain as proof of what happened while they were gone. They vote with their CPU power, expressing their acceptance of valid blocks by working on extending them and rejecting invalid blocks by refusing to work on them. Any needed rules and incentives can be enforced with this consensus mechanism." by Satoshi N.

Cutting through all of it, the miners will follow the money, because they have to follow the money.  They have to pay electricity expenses (which is in sharp contrast to POS where stakers pay nothing - hence the nothing at stake problem even if Vitalik thinks it doesn't apply - he's wrong)

I concede that if you have a large financial stake in Bitcoin and are not running a full node, then you are a fool.  

But in this case, economic soft power and nodes are aligned.  

Nicely put.
4682  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2019, 03:43:50 AM
cannot quote ^^^it properly.
It's not mining elitism, it is how it works since Satoshi made it public.
If you think that owning btc makes you or anyone else a contributor, no it does not (in a POW system), but it does in a POS system where you mine using your stake.
IN POW system miners and node-owners control the system.
Simply owning btc is OK, but you are effectively cut off out of all decision making that might affect your btc.
This is just a statement of fact, nothing personal.


You are taking a technology centric view and ignoring economic soft power.  UASF proved the strength of economic hodlers.  Don't get fooled by Bcash propaganda that miners vote.  They can just fork off and take their hashpower elsewhere and good luck to them.

UASF proved the power of users with nodes, NOT the hodlers. Hodlers were totally out of the loop and were not in the decision making.
In fact, economic powers such as coinbase and barry silbert's fund were not able to do anything because nodes said (indirectly) that they will go with the core and it was not economical for miners to go and do a split.
They would have been losing many millions a day. It is a bit funny that you are indirectly arguing for POS (power to hodlers) while saying that POW is better. No paradox here?

"UASF stands for User Activated Soft Fork.
It’s a mechanism where the activation time of a soft fork occurs on a specified date enforced by full nodes; a concept sometimes referred to as the economic majority."
https://cointelegraph.com/explained/uasf-vs-uahf-explained

"The network is robust in its unstructured simplicity. Nodes work all at once with little coordination. They do not need to be identified, since messages are not routed to any particular place and only need to be delivered on a best effort basis. Nodes can leave and rejoin the network at will, accepting the proof-of-work chain as proof of what happened while they were gone. They vote with their CPU power, expressing their acceptance of valid blocks by working on extending them and rejecting invalid blocks by refusing to work on them. Any needed rules and incentives can be enforced with this consensus mechanism." by Satoshi N.
4683  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2019, 03:36:30 AM
cannot quote ^^^it properly.
It's not mining elitism, it is how it works since Satoshi made it public.
If you think that owning btc makes you or anyone else a contributor, no it does not (in a POW system), but it does in a POS system where you mine using your stake.
IN POW system miners and node-owners control the system.
Simply owning btc is OK, but you are effectively cut off out of all decision making that might affect your btc.
This is just a statement of fact, nothing personal.
4684  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2019, 02:58:45 AM
Probably because ETH is moving from a POW (proof of work) to a PoS (proof of stake) consensus algorithm with a minimum of 32 ETH required to stake, and a lot of people are buying it at these low prices so that they can start staking soon

This has been said for forever, still nothing. I doubt anything will change.

LOL.
POW is where workers rule.
POS is where rent seekers rule.
You can never create sustainable economy where rent seekers rule!
Ethereum was created as a coin of the people that don't understand monetary theory by the people that don't understand monetary theory for the people that don't understand monetary theory!


I agree, however, I worry that current rent seekers (which are dominant in the current economy) will simply transplant themselves onto POS, thereby strengthening it.


On an individual level maybe you hedge some of your value into that situation, but if you recognize the true value as POW, and you largely invest in POW, then likely you are going to experience value appreciation in your POW investment.  The snake oil salesmen are not likely going to make it easy for you to distinguish the real value from the snake oil, right?



hey, do you mine btc or did you ever mine or run a node?
if yes, then kudos, and if not, then you are riding someone else's train here, I am sorry to say.
In order to support btc network (POW) by mining you have to have roughly one S9 (13.5 TH/s) per each 5 BTC that you might have (at this very moment).

Anything else, and you are contributing less than your claim on the network, therefore some third party have more power (you relinquished that power to them). Contribution via node is less clear, but could be calculated as a derivative of the total node number.

If you simply buy and hodl, sorry, you have a claim on something you don't really control in any way.

POS gets shook out real fast once stakers realize the value of their stake is falling faster than the value of the income. Stakers start progressively dumping their stakes at market.   It then becomes a self sustaining whirlpool of doom

POS is an excellent way to get WTF pwned during the next bear cycle.  

True, personally, i see POW as superior, albeit some were also extending ideas about POW collapse if btc prices would get too low as difficulty adjustment happens only roughly 13 days or so.
I see POS as psychologically attractive to financiers because they understand the concept of a "stake" very well.
However, all software or policies implementations of POS so far were mostly flawed.
The problem of ETH is that they think like a central bank and keep jerking the network params one way or another. The problem of EOS is centralization.
Both are no good long term, which is good for POW, but i am not sure that "perfect" (one and done, without jerking the network) POS is theoretically impossible, but maybe it is.
4685  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2019, 11:00:30 PM
CL: two stadiums full of people who paid good money plus hundreds of million people watching this on TV and all they got was 0:0.
Happy that I did not watch it (this time).
4686  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2019, 10:51:30 PM
Probably because ETH is moving from a POW (proof of work) to a PoS (proof of stake) consensus algorithm with a minimum of 32 ETH required to stake, and a lot of people are buying it at these low prices so that they can start staking soon

This has been said for forever, still nothing. I doubt anything will change.

LOL.
POW is where workers rule.
POS is where rent seekers rule.
You can never create sustainable economy where rent seekers rule!
Ethereum was created as a coin of the people that don't understand monetary theory by the people that don't understand monetary theory for the people that don't understand monetary theory!


I agree, however, I worry that current rent seekers (which are dominant in the current economy) will simply transplant themselves onto POS, thereby strengthening it.
4687  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2019, 01:36:02 AM
@HM

Do you think that it is possible that very soon (maybe they are doing it already) AI would have close to perfect market predictions?

I saw this article about protein folding. Best scientists were beaten by AI with a large margin.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/2/15/18226493/deepmind-alphafold-artificial-intelligence-protein-folding

Interesting points there: will scientists (apart from those programming AI maybe) become obsolete?
A large part of doing science is based on being able to stake the claim that you did something first (discovery, etc.).
Personally, I don't see much use of doing science of you are doing so at some primitive level when AI gets all the "best parts".
This would feel awful.
There will be a crisis (maybe limited to natural sciences, though).
We could be already in it and will realize it soon.
4688  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2019, 12:23:48 AM
I should probably write $5,500 and not $5,5000

55000 would be nice, though.
micg is writing responses so fast that one have difficulty correcting typos  Grin
4689  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2019, 07:08:30 PM

plus 27.6% tax in US, which makes it a nonstarter for anyone with more than 5c/kwh.
4690  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 18, 2019, 06:31:11 PM
What do vegans have against eating eggs though? IF the chickens were kept in a wide place outside, ate healthy food, and were not abused in any way?

Chickens lay eggs regardless of if fertilised or not. So whats the problem?

If you only stop eating meat, you are a: Pescotarian. (That’s what Mic & me are)
And really I didn’t push him, he feels sorry for the animals.


Right. There is also pesca-pescatarian...
https://youtu.be/IC-ZBJ-Kw2E?t=25

jk

I am cool with any diet (as long as I don't have to be convinced otherwise), same as religion.
Once it starts to involve moral issues, it's a slippery slope.

BTW, some cholesterol is good for you.
A couple of examples:
1. Without cholesterol your cells' membranes would freeze during winter like butter in the freezer, resulting in an effect similar to liquid N2 treated terminator (in T2).
2. Without cholesterol, men would get no testosterone and females no estrogen, which would be a bummer.
4691  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2019, 11:42:59 PM
Also check out Metformin, a diabetes pill that is now under testing for prolonging life.
https://www.wired.com/story/this-pill-promises-to-extend-life-for-a-nickel-a-pop/
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02432287

yeah...watch out if they will find something positive...immediately the price would go from 5c to $100-1k a pill.
It would be worth it, right?
I remember how during the first swine flu the cost of a weekly dose of tamiflu went from $10-20 to $300 or higher on the internet (local pharmacies were out for months).
It was worth it as well, just as $20 per btc tx was in December of 2017. People went crazy trying to get in the block immediately.

Not a problem if you get it on a prescription where I live (max price for meds is  240ish USD per 12 month period, some, like insulin, are no cost.


yeah, not sure what is better since you probably paid the last 40 years for it in higher taxes.
Once you are old(er), I agree that the fixed price med cost is the best, but our respective countries are set up in a way that precludes 'jumping ship" and enjoying what is more advantageous to you when you want it, right?
I had japanese friends in US and they all told me that US is better for younger people with more chances to advance over the "old guard", but they all wanted to go back when they are older because of more respect for older generation in Japan. US varies in different regions too.
4692  Economy / Speculation / Re: BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index and technical analysis on: February 17, 2019, 11:28:55 PM

right now BETI is about -2.09.
About 29K at BETI=0
80K at BETI=1.0 (as the last peak).

However, this is just for today.
80K number might have no meaning (not close to any round number) in a year or two.
4693  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2019, 10:55:48 PM
Also check out Metformin, a diabetes pill that is now under testing for prolonging life.
https://www.wired.com/story/this-pill-promises-to-extend-life-for-a-nickel-a-pop/
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02432287

yeah...watch out if they will find something positive...immediately the price would go from 5c to $100-1k a pill.
It would be worth it, right?
I remember how during the first swine flu the cost of a weekly dose of tamiflu went from $10-20 to $300 or higher on the internet (local pharmacies were out for months).
It was worth it as well, just as $20 per btc tx was in December of 2017. People went crazy trying to get in the block immediately.
4694  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2019, 09:40:24 PM
telomers would not solve anything, you would get more cancer as a side effect (a fact).

AFAIK, only causes cancer once the "original protective" telomeres have been naturally degraded.

Theoretically, a solution can be found if there is a way to bio-engineer a way to do this in-utero or as a "vaccine" upon birth.

it could, but short telomers are mostly associated with aging.
The most relevant quote is this:
Quote
Although tumors may arise from cells with short telomeres and chromosomal instability, telomerase activation and telomere maintenance are requisites for the progression of most human tumor types.

If you are into this stuff, here is an excellent review (with free access):
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3896987/

4695  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2019, 07:27:40 PM
Massive clinical trials for anti-aging are taking place atm..here is one off the top of my head. I think there is a real possibility that we could be one of the last generations to die.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30616998

https://www.sciencealert.com/experimental-anti-aging-treatment-that-kills-old-cells-has-passed-first-human-trial
Man wasn't meant to live forever, we don't need a 1000 year reigning Nero.

it's funny for you to say that.
Wasn't Methuselah 969 year old when he died, according to Genesis (5:27).
4696  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2019, 07:23:47 PM
Life preservation.
It's lobsters, all the way down.
Need more telomeres.



motherfucker...1sm

telomers would not solve anything, you would get more cancer as a side effect (a fact).
4697  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2019, 07:20:58 PM
Massive clinical trials for anti-aging are taking place atm..here is one off the top of my head. I think there is a real possibility that we could be one of the last generations to die.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30616998

https://www.sciencealert.com/experimental-anti-aging-treatment-that-kills-old-cells-has-passed-first-human-trial

That's the study i was talking about somewhere above, but it is just a start.
Personally, I don't like SENS and A. de Gray. Too much ideology and too little actual science.
However, extending life as a gradual process appeals to me.
Extended 10 years, then during these years, maybe something that extends 20 years would be found, etc, etc.

I would gladly dispose of most of my crypto (mostly btc) if there is a reliable, albeit expensive treatment, but only under a condition that it is a 'healthspan".
It only makes sense if you feel and look younger.
4698  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2019, 07:03:16 PM
But I am special and different goddammit and the human race will be poorer if I were to die. Ever.

like this: "I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain..."

Oh, well, but let's fight for it, although chances are slim.
4699  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2019, 05:59:36 PM
LOL:

Quote
Websites banned in China as of February, 2019:

- Google Search
- Yahoo
- Facebook
- YouTube
- Wikipedia (Chinese)
- Twitter
- Netflix
- Reddit
- Instagram
- Tumblr
- WhatsApp
- BBC
- New York Times
- The Independent
Do they have internet anymore 😛

They have tencent (literally) in a form of wechat.

4700  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2019, 05:50:24 PM
Actually age is degradation in the cells.

When you are younger they regenerate fine.

The challenge is to halt or reverse this degradation.

I believe there are current successful studies, stimulating the repair function back into order.




That's the whole "senescent cells" approach. Basically tries to kill senescent cells (cells that stop dividing) which accumulate with age. Human trials are starting this year by the way.

I know a bit about this approach, called senolytics. One problem is that aging is not considered a disease, so companies have to pursue some aging effects indirectly.
However, senolytics do not significantly increase the lifespan (so far), but they do affect the 'healthspan'. In animal trials, older mice became more healthy, but the average life duration was not affected. There were similar preliminary results (first part) in a first pre-clinical human trial.

A typical senolytic cocktail includes desatinib and quercetin.
Medical grade desatinib is expensive and is an anti-cancer drug needing prescription, so, personally, I decided not to bother with sourcing it for a simple reason that we would probably have something better (less toxic) in 5-10 years.
Quercetin, on the other hand, is readily available, is a naturally occurring molecule (present in apple's peels and in blueberries), so i did try it for a month, which is what one clinical trial did.
No discernible effects one way or another, apart from feeling slightly better (a bit more "robust"), but, of course, I did not do a proper study, so it could be purely psychological.
I would probably pause for a month and do it again. Three weeks on D+Q was the duration of the first human trial, so i also used a similar time frame (without D).
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