Back before we got flooded with authors devcoins were regularly selling for well over 200 satoshis each, now we have all these new authors it has not seen even 100 in gosh knows how long and is lucky, it seems, to see 40.
40 / 200 = 0.2 = 1/5 ... We could maybe divide all author pay by five and still have authors be able to get just as much fiat or bitcoin or whatever out of it as they get right now simply by placing their sell orders at 200 satoshis, which it used to hit quite regularly and barrel right on by even if millions were sitting there waiting to be bought so might well start doing again once floods of overpaid authors aren't dumping their grossly overhuge allotment of coins at the bottom of the price range.
(It used to also cycle down to the thirties then go back way the heck over 200, probably when enough rounds had gone by that someone figured even at dirt cheap rates they had enough to buy something with or somesuch. Likely when someone did dump a lot bringing the price way down word got around, people came to pick up coins cheap, but many of them took hours to hear about it so by the time they arrived to buy cheap coins the price was well on its way back up so they bought anyway before it went even farther back up... Oh and of course when it approached 300 people would hear about that too, come looking to sell way high, but again be beaten to it by people who were faster to hear about it and react so saw it was already on its way down so sold anyway being as how they already fired up their client and came to the exchange planning to sell...)
-MarkM-
It was only at 200 satoshis for April and May - and that was entirely due to a pump and dump by Fontas - see the following thread where he admits he manipulated it to rise by 600%: https://forum.litecoin.net/index.php?topic=4698.0Pump and dump prices do not reflect the real market (that's why the Nasdaq, Dow Jones and FTSE ban them). They're a con. They manipulate prices to con ordinary people into thinking that the price is rising and they'd better buy in, and the conman then unloads to the unsuspecting noobs. Then they remove their pretendy buy walls, and it all collapses back to the "normal" price, except now you've got some people who have bought at the top and they are hurting. Let's not have community members attack each other for something that was caused by an outsider just looking to make some quick cash... Why isn't Devcoin subject to more pump and dumps any more? Primarily because other coins have been launched that are easier for the speculators to manipulate, plus the action has moved away from vircurex to cryptsy and Btc-e - and cryptsy doesn't let you trade dvc for btc, and btc-e ignores devcoin entirely. |
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Devcoin was launched on August 5th 2011. I think it was the fourth coin to be launched and the third oldest surviving coin (ixcoin is dead to all purposes)
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Cyclos can do payment processing too for fiat and made up currencies that one works with in a way similar to fiat, that is, what is missing is automation that accepts cryptocoins and sends out cryptocoins.
Basically such apps deal in balances, it doesn't matter whether they are balances of made up stuff or of fiat except if you want to send to or take from the fiat banks bank wires etc.
They are like alertpay, paypal, egold and so on.
So I guess maybe the missing elements are the parts where people deposit coins and withdraw coins. The deposits could be done using individual shop type shopping carts, just sell people amounts of deposit. The withdrawals maybe would be new.
Then when someone wants to buy something somewhere if they have no balance yet they can use the deposit system to buy a balance then use that balance to buy whatever, though that breaks into two steps what things like bitpay do as a single step.
I suspect the single step will be more in demand.
-MarkM-
Deposits and withdrawals are handled in crypto currency exchange code - and open source code exists in this area. See http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/1447/is-there-an-open-source-bitcoin-exchangeSo in theory, it should be possible to splice the deposit/withdrawal elements of the currency exchange code with the open source fiat payment processor code to make a crypto-currency payment processor, right? |
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Source code for a payment processor for cryptocoins would be handy.
I suspect most coins lack payment processors simply because no payment processors have released their source code.
-MarkM-
Can you adapt code written for fiat to accommodate cryptocoins? Here's an opensource fiat payment processor: http://www.jbilling.com/ |
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We now have page view information from google analytics, so the devtome.py script has been modified and popular writers will get paid more per word than unpopular writers. From: http://www.devtome.com/doku.php?id=earn_devcoins_by_writing#earnings_per_word"The earnings are calculated according to the popularity of the writer's articles according to google analytics. The number of unique page views are divided by the number of words, then the root of that is taken and the roots of all the writers are normalized. That earnings multipler is multiplied by a goal seeked revenue neutralizing multiplier, then bounded from 0.75 to 1.25, and multiplied by the words to obtain the number of generation shares. To summarize, an unpopular writer will get 0.75 generation shares per thousand words, an average writer will get around a share per thousand words, and a popular writer will get 1.25 shares per thousand words." The earnings multiplier is from the fourth root of the page views divided by the number of words and it is bounded to a narrow range this round because the payment rule has just been changed. In the next round, round 27, the earnings multiplier will be from the square root of the views over the words, and the multiplier will bounded to the wider range of 0.500001 to 1.499999. I'm using 0.500001 as a lower limit so that even unpopular writers who only write a share will at least get something after the multiplication and rounding. The unique page views will be taken from the four days just before the earnings calculation. The earnings multiplier is only calculated for the writers who have earned at least a share. The most popular topics were cryptocurrencies: https://github.com/Unthinkingbit/charity/blob/master/devtome_analytics_26.csvAfter running the script, I found that some writers actually didn't get any page views at all, and got the minimum 0.75 multiplier: https://raw.github.com/Unthinkingbit/charity/master/devtome_26.csvThe above devtome_26 file is just there so people can see popularity and earnings multipliers, it will be calculated officially in about a week. Some of the new writers don't have any page views yet, but will when the script is run next week. For people who write books or screenplays, to boost their page views I recommend making a page for each chapter or scene. Nice  i approve of all of this, thank you Unthinkingbit. Just to highlight one potential issue, what happens if someone setup a bot to use proxies to just visit the pages with unique IP's how are we handling this?? FuzzyBear I think he's using Google Analytics, which filters out most bots. On my own websites the Google Analytics reported traffic is about 1/10th of what my cpanel reports (and that's because cpanel counts everything including bots). According to Google they only count traffic where their javascript is activated (most bots don't activate it). see https://support.google.com/analytics/answer/1315708?hl=enIn addition Google Analytics shows referral data - so you can delve deeper to see where the traffic has come from (search engines, twitter, referrals from a blog etc). If an article is getting a lot of suspicious direct traffic, and analytics can't tell which browser and country it came from, it could be manually excluded. |
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most of us already know it was him but his pump created a massivr bull chart imo.
I guess I'm the only innocent around here then. I expect it's because I'm a girl. |
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Because those who've earned them them are selling at lower and lower prices - implying that many value their efforts and those of others at a (far) lower level than that initially paid, or where they perceived that payment level to be. It's probably better this happens asap as gives a indicative clearing level of the value of e.g. writings by writers, and therefore I hope a means of re-assessing sustainable payments and shares.
That's the classic theory - in practice I think people are operating on fear and panic. They fear they'll get nothing if they wait to sell, so they sell. I've held onto all mine and sometimes I wonder if I'm a mug. Then I console myself with the thought that when fear and capitulation are greatest, that's when the market turns... That may be true, but it doesn't really matter - it still implies shares for one or more projects (or perception of them) were overpriced else instead of selling on fear and panic at that price those people would be buying up the sales of others' efforts. Well we can always experiment with the price. How about in the next writing round, the pay is half a share per 1000 words. We can then assess whether there is the same dumping. If dumping stops and the price rises, we can declare a success and keep it at half a share per thousand words. I'm all for it. Half a share at 148 satoshis per devcoin is worth much more than a full share at 47 satoshis per devcoin. What do we need to do to make this happen? I don't want to call out anyone publicly but what I will say is that the tanking price occurred after a single specific event: someone dumped over 20 million coins on the market on their own, tackling the big buy walls that were already up. This is what caused the downward spiral and the "panic selling" we are seeing, and is what has killed the price for the time being. It wasn't a large group of people, it was a single one. Now, with that said, I think the current reward system is good. People just need to start paying more attention to what they're doing before they make drastic decisions. Ok I think I've solved the mystery - the price in May and teh subsequent dump was down to a character called Fontas - see the following: http://trollboxarchive.com/search.php?search_type=all&search=dvc#We genuine community members are such a bunch of innocents, arn't we? |
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^^ There was a big buy wall at 74 sat last night, about 12btc worth, and it wasn't eaten, it was removed by whoever set it up and replaced with a series of small buy orders 100kdvc in price steps down, designed to force dumpers to get less and less for their coins, especially as no-one else is stepping in to buy.
The whole thing is fascinating - wonder what the next stage of this saga will be...
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Devcoin will be two years old on August 11th (it started on August 11th 2011). This makes it the third oldest cryptocurrency (only Bitcoin and Namecoin are older).
I think we should do something to mark the occasion because not many coins survive this long! Any suggestions?
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Because those who've earned them them are selling at lower and lower prices - implying that many value their efforts and those of others at a (far) lower level than that initially paid, or where they perceived that payment level to be. It's probably better this happens asap as gives a indicative clearing level of the value of e.g. writings by writers, and therefore I hope a means of re-assessing sustainable payments and shares.
That's the classic theory - in practice I think people are operating on fear and panic. They fear they'll get nothing if they wait to sell, so they sell. I've held onto all mine and sometimes I wonder if I'm a mug. Then I console myself with the thought that when fear and capitulation are greatest, that's when the market turns... That may be true, but it doesn't really matter - it still implies shares for one or more projects (or perception of them) were overpriced else instead of selling on fear and panic at that price those people would be buying up the sales of others' efforts. Well we can always experiment with the price. How about in the next writing round, the pay is half a share per 1000 words. We can then assess whether there is the same dumping. If dumping stops and the price rises, we can declare a success and keep it at half a share per thousand words. I'm all for it. Half a share at 148 satoshis per devcoin is worth much more than a full share at 47 satoshis per devcoin. What do we need to do to make this happen? |
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Uhauuu!
Now on Vircurex for 1 BTC you need more then 2.000.000 DVC
What is it happening?
It means that all the monthly production of DVC (about 200.000.000) is now worth less then 100 BTC.
Is DVC going to die?
Because those who've earned them them are selling at lower and lower prices - implying that many value their efforts and those of others at a (far) lower level than that initially paid, or where they perceived that payment level to be. It's probably better this happens asap as gives a indicative clearing level of the value of e.g. writings by writers, and therefore I hope a means of re-assessing sustainable payments and shares. That's the classic theory - in practice I think people are operating on fear and panic. They fear they'll get nothing if they wait to sell, so they sell. I've held onto all mine and sometimes I wonder if I'm a mug. Then I console myself with the thought that when fear and capitulation are greatest, that's when the market turns... |
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Uhauuu!
Now on Vircurex for 1 BTC you need more then 2.000.000 DVC
What is it happening?
It means that all the monthly production of DVC (about 200.000.000) is now worth less then 100 BTC.
Is DVC going to die?
People are panic dumping - they see the price fall and they sell in case it falls further. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. At some point investors will come in who think it is a bargain. The price is too low given that Devcoin owns some assets - such as Devtome. The sooner it is monetised the better - that way fiat can be converted to BTC which can be converted to DVC which can be added to the distribution pool. It would be nice if Devcoin could accrue other assets. Then we can market it as an asset backed coin. Yeah, this would be awesome. We need more things to back up the coin... I wish we could buy some land. You know that project that was announced in the San Diego bitcoin conference, where they were going to do a deal with Nicaragua or some such place for a free-trade zone. It would be awesome if Devcoin could accrue some offices in the zone which we could then rent out. To finance it we can just put a freeze on payouts from say round 28 to round 108, to accrue enough coins to invest. Of course that means the dumping of coins will stop so the value would rise. We could monetise devtome at the same time, and then once an income is flowing from that and from the office rentals, we can resume distribution. It requires a collective sacrifice from the community though - not sure if the community is strong enough to bear it. |
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Uhauuu!
Now on Vircurex for 1 BTC you need more then 2.000.000 DVC
What is it happening?
It means that all the monthly production of DVC (about 200.000.000) is now worth less then 100 BTC.
Is DVC going to die?
People are panic dumping - they see the price fall and they sell in case it falls further. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. At some point investors will come in who think it is a bargain. The price is too low given that Devcoin owns some assets - such as Devtome. The sooner it is monetised the better - that way fiat can be converted to BTC which can be converted to DVC which can be added to the distribution pool. It would be nice if Devcoin could accrue other assets. Then we can market it as an asset backed coin. |
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even as a bitcoin bull myself this looks like a trap to me. too much too fast and for what reason? is there some breaking news i missed?
whats the reason it went down so fast. None Bitcoin drooped on June 17th because Ben Bernanke signalled he was going to reduce the Fed's monthly QE if the unemployment rate hit 7% (his statement was followed by a good jobs report and the market panicked). Gold and silver tanked too. The dollar rose. Then yesterday he made it clear that the lifting of QE was a long way off in his opinion (and that was followed by a poor jobs report). Gold and silver rose and so did bitcoin. Dollar fell. I think we have to conclude that some hedge funds are now dabbling in bitcoin to diversify their assets. And because they are used to liquid markets, they think nothing of dropping $2 million at a time - of course because the bitcoin market isn't that liquid, you get larger movements than you would with gold or silver. |
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Well the initial move up was caused by Ben Bernanke being dovish on the withdrawal of QE - all hard assets rallied, gold and silver went up as well as bitcoins - I think some hedge funds as now using bitcoins to hedge against inflation. However, today there was another bitcoin specific development - Coinbase allows instant bitcoin buys for their level 2 customers. See this thread on reddit where all the coinbase customers are happily buying coins like sweets: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1i3xs2/coinbasecom_level_2_verified_accounts_can_buy/I think coinbase then goes to the exchanges to purchase the bitcoins in the back end, and that's supporting bitcoin too. |
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Hiatus effect
The vast majority of the recent bearish threads have completely ignored the MtGox withdrawal hiatus effect on bitcoin. Look at the price the day before the announcement, then look at the sharp downturn immediately after. The withdrawal hiatus without a doubt had an effect. I was actually surprised that bitcoin didn't drop much further than it has.
Don't forget the effect of Satoshi Dice closing to American players starting May 16th. If you look at the charts, this was when there was a step change ftom about $125 to $115. I think the gambling sites really supported the BTC price because people had to buy BTC to play. Whereas sites like Bitpay suppress the BTC price because for every transaction they are having to sell BTC and buy dollars to pay the retailer. |
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even after 3 years he only knows of 3 main places that sell legitimate products for bitcoins. although i know that there are over 10,000. no one truly knows them all..
The point is that a "real economy" is larger than just "selling legitimate products". We can build businesses all day long that sell legitimate products, but if none of them ever expand beyond the point of immediately cashing out into some other currency in order to pay suppliers and employees, they will eventually fail and the Bitcoin economy will simply be worse off for the experience. If there really are 10,000 legitimate Bitcoin businesses (which I doubt), then why are you the only one who knows about them? Why aren't there more than a few of them in only two areas trading Bitcoins with each other? If you Google, you'll find various lists of bitcoin businnesses, some more helpful than others. Here's a useful one aimed at new adopters. I personally think food is the key. When people can buy groceries with bitcoins it will go mainstream - it's not just women who buy food :-). |
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