I finally get it, thanks, guys. I've been wondering about this for years (literally) and it's not something one can figure out with google. Now I know why. Dooglus' bad strategy is not something I had ever considered and pretty much changed the way I look at things: To try to pick a 'bad' strategy, what if we bet 1 BTC with a 90% chance of a 1x payout ten times in a row... Those are also 10% house edge bets.
We have a 0.9 ** 10 = 0.3486784401 probability of winning all ten bets and ending up with our original 1 BTC. That's an EV of 0.3486 BTC.
Nope. You would need to know the variance of the game you are playing, just finding that is difficult.
Are you referring to Pocketdice? Their cashback is +EV, all the rest is -EV.
Haven't looked too closely at Pocketdice. Mostly motivated by the way all those coingaming and softswiss type sites like to act as if their 100%+ first-time deposit bonuses are so generous that they have to hold cashouts hostage for player dox to make sure nobody is "abusing their bonuses." Offering that same bonus for every deposit all the time would probably only cost them money because they wouldn't be able to cancel as many withdraws. Does anyone know where I could find some software to run simulations of simple slot type games? For example, If I could run a million simulations of a game that either paid out 0x 2x 20x or 200x with a 5% HE with limits and a basic betting strategy, I could figure out a reasonable number to put on different bonuses. I think most of the people running these sites are pretty oblivious and just do what has become standard. Would be nice to enlighten them, or something. |
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 ReferenceWho is your parent company? Private held company that owns operates and licenses software and services to many online casinos. |
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Never have I ever...
Had my account unbanned and reset to bronze III the day of the last gold freeroll (cool troll), the next day I had one chip sent to it from management and they also restored my gold VIP status, a day or two later it was banned again.
Oh wait yes i have! How does this game work again?
Prior to that I was banned since the day after Jasonort started the thread about Glamlife jackpot. This was the last thing they said to me:
Betcoin Andrew: Our casino providers do an excellent job and are used by the top online casinos. We cannot have those type of comments about them in the forum as they are constantly reviewing our website. *** Betcoin Andrew left the chat ***
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hi friends chelashin
i will send you some btc after
In recognition of your efforts
Money is not a problem for me in life
I support the righteous men anywhere . I love ethicsI . love the righteous people
i will send you between 86 mbtc ( 50 dollar)This time
Maybe it's a small amount
I'll send you again another gift In the coming days
for me. chelashin is not good men
chelashin will lose everything
Sorry for the presence of such people
your btc adress: 1Hs7hv9qcs9kYh1SoytpjifpTHhMyU81M
blockchain id : cff21ea5fb902c3ac745796ced731f92611aa66a4c6471979dba2eca95dd7fe9
thank you very much Nood
i received the gift 0.0866
It was an act so pleasant / I do not know how I attributed the good for you
It's very obvious that Nood is your alt account and you are just trying to make it look like someone sent you money.
As for the player chelashin . I say it from the site pocketdice
there is no chilashin . and no profit 102 btc . its a bot / chelashin is from pocketdice
It's a trick from the site to bring in players
This is very unlikely. Think about it. |
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I got defrauded out of 3400 mBTC from this website using their live betting platform. I am working with the employees at this book to hopefully resolve the issue fairly but I am not very confident since they're not taking responsibility for their mistake.
Is there anyone here who can help me?
I'd highly recommend getting the information and proof and posting it in the Scam Accusations board on bitcointalk. People might be able to help, and if valid proof is provided, their accounts will be tagged with a negative trust rating and cause them to have a Warning: Trade with extreme caution! under their name, and possibly pressure them into paying you. What was the issue, and what was the mistake? They accepted a live wager and then past rejected it. I made a live wager. Wager was green, accepted, balance taken out of my available balance. Then minutes later, after positive things happened for my wager, they sent me a rejection/canceled notification. That's stealing isn't it? What was the wager and what was the positive event? |
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We are growing in popularity everyday, which is a great thing! We're launching new servers to handle the increased traffic.
Nice, how much money have you guys made so far? |
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Edit: didn't see dooglus' post, gonna read it later. I can't wrap my head around this idea that equity in a vacume (not influenced by human traits like time or emotion) can be influenced by variance. If I give you 1 BTC and tell you that you have to wager 10 BTC at a 10% house edge, the EV of that bonus is exactly 0, as you calculate above.
To say more than that we will need to know the terms of the bonus.
For example, with some bonuses I am allowed to "cancel" it at any time. But does cancelling a bonus remove the full 1 BTC from my balance, or just the amount I didn't already lose of the bonus?
Ok, let's say we're playing on a dice site with a 1% house edge. We have a bonus balance of 1,000 with the following terms. We must choose one of three bets to make for an amount between 1 and 1,000 After the first bet - we can not change it. We have to make that same bet over and over and over. Options A) 1.01x B) 2x C) 750x (all with 1% HE as seen on just-dice and ignoring any potentially exploitable rounding issues) There are only two possible outcomes : A) meet the wagering requirement and cash out balance or B) go broke Let's say in one scenario there was a 10x playthrough, and another with 100x. |
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Friends chilashin just sent himself BTC.086 lol *I deplored the acts which you are. And about 3 users in recent days might envy or selfish is the reason
You want spoil the topic in any way possible
* Acts was very bad (insults. Cursing. Racism. Envy. Selfishness),
*but what I did was all out to success. chelashin received the money after a long struggle here with the Site
Bad acts which you are. You bear the responsibility in your own conscience
hi friends chelashin i will send you some btc after In recognition of your efforts Money is not a problem for me in life I support the righteous men anywhere . I love ethicsI . love the righteous people i will send you between 86 mbtc ( 50 dollar)This time Maybe it's a small amount I'll send you again another gift In the coming days for me. chelashin is not good men chelashin will lose everything Sorry for the presence of such people your btc adress: 1Hs7hv9qcs9kYh1SoytpjifpTHhMyU81M blockchain id : cff21ea5fb902c3ac745796ced731f92611aa66a4c6471979dba2eca95dd7fe9 so chelashin promised to give friends chelashin a gift and He did not do . Although he won a lot !!!!!
This is unfortunate . To see men helped him until the end. And then he turns his back after receiving money
Sorry to see this topic sad endings
It is very sad.
And does not lead to good
We hope chelashin send him this gift
Humpertle Anxiety and anger Maybe the money will be sent to friends chelashin soon  hi chelachin or kurdistan
this is bad bad bad .
We are afraid your friend touch you with evil or Things bad
Do not be fooled by money. Or some of the bad guys do not want good for any one
I advise you to send what you promised your friend. At least send him a half
And otherwise will befall you hated or evil will not be enough you configure 1000 btc
chelachin Send to your friends what you promised him .
skimp 5 btc lose everything (((((((( Health or something else)))))))
Maybe your friend desperately needs money
Perhaps it is the patient
Your friend will catch you with evil ((((((((((Or dissatisfaction about you))))))))
To avoid bad things might curses or diseases
Treason is not good
Curse . very dangerous
What is that
I am player of pocketdice.io
One of them copy the URL in the chat
And that was my opinion.
I'm a newbie or not
This is not important
I defend the good and just
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snip
Maybe I should of made this thread self moderated.Sorry, that was a dick thing to say. Luck really has nothing to do with the question though. |
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^ Disregard my answer. I believe the question is not solvable with the information you gave. My logic was based upon someone betting with 50-50 odds of winning (e.g. 0.8x multiplier) and always betting MIN(playerBalance, amountRequiredToHitWageringReq), however now that I dig deeper it appears that the EV changes depending how the player bets. (Or that is wrong, which would also make my original answer wrong). So either way, I was wrong  It's very counter-intuitive, but I believe the riskier bets you take, the higher your EV will actually be. For instance, imagine you have to wager 100 BTC @ 10% house edge. The normal expected value of doing that is -10 BTC, and the less-risky bets you make, the closer your actual result will be to the expected value. But in this case, we only have 1 BTC to wager with, so the less risky bets we do, the closer we are to certain doom (busting our 1 BTC). e.g. If we attempting to hitting the wagering requirement by doing a million tiny bets, the variance would be so small that we would always bust, and we would have 0 EV. But if we make some extremely risky bets, our variance is huge. And the benefit in this case, is our worst result is making 0 money. e.g. our EV is actually the SUM(MAX(0, result[i]) * probability[i]) so its our goal to increase the variance. Disclaimer: it's late, wait for someone like blockage or dooglus to answer this, as they're a lot more competent than me. High variance betting (both via bet size and game selection) is pretty clearly the optimal strategy for clearing high playthrough bonuses (and also lossback promotions), but I thought it was mostly due to our value of time and the fact that walking away with 1% of the bonus is the same to most as walking away with 0 and going bust on the first bet 999 times for ever one time we 900x our money is preferable. I don't see how increasing our variance should change out EV in a vacuum, but if it does - when does it start? Whether we lay 1:10, flip a coin or take a 100:1 shot, A $100 bonus with 1x playthrough always = $100 - House Edge For what it's worth I get:
1x roll over: 0.90 BTC
10x roll over: 0.563 BTC
100x roll over: 0.315 BTC
1000x roll over: 0.196 BTC How did you get this? I think 1000x seems way high, but still curious. Btw, I'm sure I was wrong, but i put my formula into excel and it came out to 97x before our original $100 was worth less than 1 penny. Theoretically even with infinite playthrough, our value would be >0. 1 $100.00 $10.00 $90.00
2 $90.00 $9.00 $81.00
3 $81.00 $8.10 $72.90
4 $72.90 $7.29 $65.61
5 $65.61 $6.56 $59.05
6 $59.05 $5.90 $53.14
7 $53.14 $5.31 $47.83
8 $47.83 $4.78 $43.05
9 $43.05 $4.30 $38.74
10 $38.74 $3.87 $34.87
11 $34.87 $3.49 $31.38
12 $31.38 $3.14 $28.24
13 $28.24 $2.82 $25.42
14 $25.42 $2.54 $22.88
15 $22.88 $2.29 $20.59
16 $20.59 $2.06 $18.53
17 $18.53 $1.85 $16.68
18 $16.68 $1.67 $15.01
19 $15.01 $1.50 $13.51
20 $13.51 $1.35 $12.16
21 $12.16 $1.22 $10.94
22 $10.94 $1.09 $9.85
23 $9.85 $0.98 $8.86
24 $8.86 $0.89 $7.98
25 $7.98 $0.80 $7.18
26 $7.18 $0.72 $6.46
27 $6.46 $0.65 $5.81
28 $5.81 $0.58 $5.23
29 $5.23 $0.52 $4.71
30 $4.71 $0.47 $4.24
31 $4.24 $0.42 $3.82
32 $3.82 $0.38 $3.43
33 $3.43 $0.34 $3.09
34 $3.09 $0.31 $2.78
35 $2.78 $0.28 $2.50
36 $2.50 $0.25 $2.25
37 $2.25 $0.23 $2.03
38 $2.03 $0.20 $1.82
39 $1.82 $0.18 $1.64
40 $1.64 $0.16 $1.48
41 $1.48 $0.15 $1.33
42 $1.33 $0.13 $1.20
43 $1.20 $0.12 $1.08
44 $1.08 $0.11 $0.97
45 $0.97 $0.10 $0.87
46 $0.87 $0.09 $0.79
47 $0.79 $0.08 $0.71
48 $0.71 $0.07 $0.64
49 $0.64 $0.06 $0.57
50 $0.57 $0.06 $0.52
51 $0.52 $0.05 $0.46
52 $0.46 $0.05 $0.42
53 $0.42 $0.04 $0.38
54 $0.38 $0.04 $0.34
55 $0.34 $0.03 $0.30
56 $0.30 $0.03 $0.27
57 $0.27 $0.03 $0.25
58 $0.25 $0.02 $0.22
59 $0.22 $0.02 $0.20
60 $0.20 $0.02 $0.18
61 $0.18 $0.02 $0.16
62 $0.16 $0.02 $0.15
63 $0.15 $0.01 $0.13
64 $0.13 $0.01 $0.12
65 $0.12 $0.01 $0.11
66 $0.11 $0.01 $0.10
67 $0.10 $0.01 $0.09
68 $0.09 $0.01 $0.08
69 $0.08 $0.01 $0.07
70 $0.07 $0.01 $0.06
71 $0.06 $0.01 $0.06
72 $0.06 $0.01 $0.05
73 $0.05 $0.01 $0.05
74 $0.05 $0.00 $0.04
75 $0.04 $0.00 $0.04
76 $0.04 $0.00 $0.03
77 $0.03 $0.00 $0.03
78 $0.03 $0.00 $0.03
79 $0.03 $0.00 $0.02
80 $0.02 $0.00 $0.02
81 $0.02 $0.00 $0.02
82 $0.02 $0.00 $0.02
83 $0.02 $0.00 $0.02
84 $0.02 $0.00 $0.01
85 $0.01 $0.00 $0.01
86 $0.01 $0.00 $0.01
87 $0.01 $0.00 $0.01
88 $0.01 $0.00 $0.01
89 $0.01 $0.00 $0.01
90 $0.01 $0.00 $0.01
91 $0.01 $0.00 $0.01
92 $0.01 $0.00 $0.01
93 $0.01 $0.00 $0.01
94 $0.01 $0.00 $0.00
95 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
It depends on variance, not just house edge. So you would need to know the total number, chances of and payouts of each event. It's very counter-intuitive, but I believe the riskier bets you take, the higher your EV will actually be.
Exactly. It can even get positive. How do you calculate this? |
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It really would be a big help if you gave us all the details. You obv want to help and are not spamming things up. Edit: It's pretty clear you bought the account on August 17th Old Account: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=872917Who did you buy it from, can you give me transaction id? |
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I don't follow why WPN would need any escrow of funds.
Because unlike any other tournament of SNG, the rake isn't immediate, it's long-term. The sites only 'win' on one multiplier (the smallest one), on all others the sites lose. While it's likely that the sites will "win" every day, it's not definite, especially if one skin is very low volume. Asking for the skins to escrow is WPN's way of protecting itself so that it's not on the hook for a 50k payment. I have to disagree with you for two reasons. - The only thing establishing a spin n go escrow would do is reduce variance for WPN - this would only be an issue if they were in serious financial trouble. Also, the more spin n gos that are played the lower their overall variance is - so not allowing a site would actually do the opposite of the whole reason escrow is needed (weird to think about). - Betcoin players make up well under 1% of the WPN/WTN player pool and if I had to guess, I would say the ave Betcoin player bankroll is much smaller than the ave of the entire network. The top spin n go reward $150k (usually only 100k, but 150k during $60 jackpot plo promo). So even a reasonable escrow request wouldn't be that much if they did it based on player share. I think it would make much more sense to just pay Betcoin a fee based on a cut of the House Edge (I think 5 or 6%). I also think those $60 plo jackpot sngs have got to be the easiest way to launder $500-$1k a day colluding without being detected, which is why I don't think we'll be seeing them on Betcoin ever. |
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Does anyone know of an easy was to calculate the true EV of a bonus considering the house edge and playthrough requirement?
For example, lets say we receive a BTC1 bonus to play a game with a 10% HE and 10x playthrough.
We can expect to lose BTC1 for every BTC10 wagered at this game, BTC10 is the amount we have to wager, but that doesn't make the EV of our bonus = 0
I think the calculation for the Value of the bonus looks something like this:
Starting BR = BTC1
BTC1 x .1 = .1
BTC1 - .1 =BTC0.9
Bonus Value with 1x Required = BTC.9
BTC0.9 x .1 = .09
BTC0.9 - .09 = BTC0.81
Bonus Value with 2x Required = BTC0.81
BTC0.81 x .1 = .081
BTC0.81 - 0.81 = BTC0.729
Bonus Value with 3x Required = BTC0.729
Etc.
Am I doing it wrong?
If I'm doing it right, it there an easy way to calculate Bonus Value with 100x or more?
(Variance and deposit/no deposit are not relevant.)
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Because you can't give a few word answer even tho it would be appropriate to do so. Should everyone Write a three page essay just for one topic reply, get ya heads out of your asses. I see spammers all the time and I don't care, I just don't pay that much attention to them, deal with it...
OOps you just burned your account. Go pay back your loans scumbag. Name: Tyrantt Posts: 832 Activity: 294 Position: Sr. Member Date Registered: December 14, 2015, 02:02:18 AM Last Active: Today at 06:33:29 PM Email: hidden Website: Current Status: Offline Offline Bitcoin address: 1HdK3k1LWG429jADbu9GXTszWmGGz9uVdXIs this campaighn still available? I've filled out the form a few moments ago.
post count:233
btc address: 1HdK3k1LWG429jADbu9GXTszWmGGz9uVdX
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=840124.msg12730279#msg12730279Id like to enroll
Posts: 17
activity: 17
btc address: 1HdK3k1LWG429jADbu9GXTszWmGGz9uVdX Signed up as Tyrantt, btc address 1HdK3k1LWG429jADbu9GXTszWmGGz9uVdX  Also, forum really seems nice, I think I might even hang out there. I'd like to join.
Ill post here too:
starting post: 353
btc address: 1HdK3k1LWG429jADbu9GXTszWmGGz9uVdX
I am currently holding his account as collateral. This is tx:https://blockchain.info/zh-cn/tx/dbf878723436d3da6fba61ab43b8fe3429694551f16118086cf3884f29e4dcdb Btc amount: 0.09btc
address: 1HdK3k1LWG429jADbu9GXTszWmGGz9uVdX
interest: 40% (I can send you weekly, so that 8$ for 4-5 weeks) that would be 28$ for a total repay
Thank you very much.
Please repay to for each installment: 1xWop24MSPuYeWZ53Fo6YzJsHvMjr4EYM They will be scheduled at next 4 weeks: 9 June, 16 June, 23 June, 30 June. At fifth week, if you pay full amount of each installment ( 8$ equivalent of Bitcoin amount) at previous four weeks, I will return the account to you! Thanks! |
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3223303 is the (somewhat incorrect) number of games in total. Only roughly one in a thousand games are Nyan games, though. im not sure what nyan games means regards. -Katerniko1 regards. -Twitchyseal |
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-snip-
Do check the first posts since it has listed the possible alts found.Although the thread is not updated,you might be wasting time on something which has already posted before.
I've learned this lesson about 83 times. Spend time gathering a bunch of info, and then the next search result is a post in this thread explaining everything I just found and then some. |
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I'm guessing most of these cases of tons of accounts were created by spam bots for SEO reasons. Then they got hacked and sold.
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2. A player in the past week has been stiffed of a million coin progressive jackpot win at a bitcoin site called Betcoin.ag (worth about $340,000 at the moment). He hit 5 yachts in a line on The Glam Life slot and although the excuse has changed a few times, they are now saying that the win doesn't count because he hit it during a free spins round (triggered in game, not a bonus). This is not documented in the game or its paytable anywhere and neither the casino or Betsoft has shown proof to support this claim.
This is just outright theft imo, I've found an article about this and it goes further than this. They've offered him a settlement to keep his mouth shut about the whole thing, dunno if that's accurate. https://www.casinolistings.com/news/2016/07/betcoin-ag-betsoft-force-shafted-jackpot-winner-into-agreementIt's very accurate. |
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2. A player in the past week has been stiffed of a million coin progressive jackpot win at a bitcoin site called Betcoin.ag (worth about $340,000 at the moment). He hit 5 yachts in a line on The Glam Life slot and although the excuse has changed a few times, they are now saying that the win doesn't count because he hit it during a free spins round (triggered in game, not a bonus). This is not documented in the game or its paytable anywhere and neither the casino or Betsoft has shown proof to support this claim.
This is just outright theft imo, I've found an article about this and it goes further than this. They've offered him a settlement to keep his mouth shut about the whole thing, dunno if that's accurate. https://www.casinolistings.com/news/2016/07/betcoin-ag-betsoft-force-shafted-jackpot-winner-into-agreementBetsoft turns rogue now, I won't bet any slots there, slot is a silly game makes us broke soon. It was actually worth over $600k USD |
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