Now that the sell wall is out of the way with the 2000 share auction @ 2.50 btc, its a good time to repost this analysis ASICMiner market cap = BTC 1152000 (@ btc 2.88/share) $117,504,000 (@ $102 btc/usd) Yet bitcoin's market cap = 11,274,675 (bitcoins mined) $1,150,016,850 (@ $102 btc/usd) and ASICMiner = 24% of total hash rate ( http://blockchain.info/pools ) yet ASICMiner currently trades at = 10% of bitcoin market cap without issuing dividends ASICMiner should trade at = 24% of bitcoin market cap this puts the share price at = BTC 6.76 ( (BTC's issued * .24 ) / 400000 shares ) and this represents a = 234% price increase from today's prices ASICMiner does issue dividends making the shares more attractive than holding bitcoins and would logically trade at a premium to its network value (the % it contributes to the bitcoin network) ASICMiner shares are very cheap.ASICMiner plans to increase its hashing capabilities by a large factor putting it closer to 33% or 40% of the hash rate, and this is not currently priced in to the stock price. Disclaimer: stslimited is long ASICMiner. feel free to repost, and discuss this pricing analysis. This analysis does not include possible negative factors yet based on available information, this analysis does not see those negative factors rationalizing the share price being 1/3rd of the value computed above. Not sure why you think AM should be 24% of Bitcoin market cap, the coins that are already mined, are not owned by AM. Unless you think miners at any time, combined, should be worth 100% of Bitcoin marketcap, which doesn't make any sense. AM's potential profits comes from the coins that are not yet mined, and also selling hardware. These two are actually the same thing, by selling hardware, AM is creating competition to itself. Realistically, we can assume AM will maintain 20% of network for at least a few years, and then who knows what happens, a few competitors are developing sub 50nm process, which will hugely beat AM's hardware(though AM is also looking to do this in the near future). I did consider that, I consider their contribution to the hashrate of the network is still valued greater |
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Now that the sell wall is out of the way with the 2000 share auction @ 2.50 btc, its a good time to repost this analysis ASICMiner market cap = BTC 1152000 (@ btc 2.88/share) $117,504,000 (@ $102 btc/usd) Yet bitcoin's market cap = 11,274,675 (bitcoins mined) $1,150,016,850 (@ $102 btc/usd) and ASICMiner = 24% of total hash rate ( http://blockchain.info/pools ) yet ASICMiner currently trades at = 10% of bitcoin market cap without issuing dividends ASICMiner should trade at = 24% of bitcoin market cap this puts the share price at = BTC 6.76 ( (BTC's issued * .24 ) / 400000 shares ) and this represents a = 234% price increase from today's prices ASICMiner does issue dividends making the shares more attractive than holding bitcoins and would logically trade at a premium to its network value (the % it contributes to the bitcoin network) ASICMiner shares are very cheap.ASICMiner plans to increase its hashing capabilities by a large factor putting it closer to 33% or 40% of the hash rate, and this is not currently priced in to the stock price. Disclaimer: stslimited is long ASICMiner. feel free to repost, and discuss this pricing analysis. This analysis does not include possible negative factors yet based on available information, this analysis does not see those negative factors rationalizing the share price being 1/3rd of the value computed above. This analysis ignores hardware sales, which are a large and complimentary percentage of ASICMiner's value. |
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just look at transaction fees accompanying the block reward to see that the number of transactions are not growing in proportion with the number of new coins being generated
more coins than currently necessary equal lower price
also liquidity has gone to shit for the time being, anyone can drop the price of bitcoins by a few bucks
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There is very little liquidity on Mt. Gox and the volume, based on the time since clark moody's tracker starts is the lowest since ever.
A big order on Mt. Gox can really rip through the order book if someone wanted to. Again BTC-E price is currently higher than Mt. Gox making it probably the best international bid/ask
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glad that 2.50btc wall is gone. It took a while to sell those shares and psychologically I had forgotten about that auction and was wondering why the price was stuck there, I started thinking about dubious things like "efficient market theory" and other unsubstantiated things, as if 2.50 btc was a consensus driven midpoint price between people thinking AM would be 1.70 btc and people thinking AM would be 5 btc/share
the estimates my company has come up with are still sound
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Hey All,
Today we will be meeting up in New York City for Satoshi Square, the open outcry bitcoin exchange. We will be meeting today at EVR Lounge, due to the bad weather. EVR is located on 39th st between 5th and 6th ave.
If you are in NYC, want to buy, sell bitcoins, or just want to drop by and chat, I'd love to see you there!
-Josh
I had a larger cash order but its always a gamble in NYC: send a wire to mt gox early in the day to buy bitcoins a mere 13 hours later, or keep the cash, in cash, and go to satoshi square! |
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For members that have done trades with me and the company.
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smooth in person cash transaction, quick and prompt communication, no problems
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Just another example of how innovation in the United States is dying. Countries that embrace Bitcoin innovation will see benefits while the US ultimately gets left behind.
just another example of how you think the US is exclusively relevant in this discussion at all |
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So you said that you love what comes after it? What do you think that will be? If your an economist can you tell me if a currency with a finite amount can survive. I personally believe that a currency that deflates over time (fiat) is better for the economy. There is less reason to hoard and you constantly have to seek more out which means buying and working to earn more thus moving the economy along. Do you see this working differnetly with Bitcoin?
The higher the price goes, the more I try to spend mine. WHen the price drops, I stop spending. So, the more it deflates, the more I want to spend it. I don't see a problem. same here, I hoard when the price drops. Contrary to austrian bitcoin economists belief system  I really just need a way to hedge |
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This thread went dead silent from March 22 until June 5, during the unbelievable run-up in early April. What -- did everyone who was holding bitcoins at that time not make money? I don't hear any Champagne corks popping. And maybe the best part of this is that, as I see it, bitcoin has now established itself as a safe haven for cash under duress. I, personally, was not holding any coins at the time, but now that the price is beginning to stabilize I will probably start buying.
the OP was pretty spot on bitcoin hit $100 and it hit $200 and higher I was involved with bitcoin at the time too and was also predicting it as a flight to liquidity |
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I'm fully aware that america is in fact the centre of the universe by which everything revolves around but before notions that all Bitcoin holders will find themselves in an orange all in one in Guantanamo. America's recent round of money "printing" was enough to buy all the bitcoins in circulation every two days. Bitcoin isn't on the verge of replacing the dollar. Until we see a $10,000 Bitcoin and a substantially greater market cap Its not going to be considered a threat to the status-quo for any government. Now feel free to buy back the btc you sold recently thinking we're about to see Bitcoins demise. Have a great day  even if it was worth 10k per coin today, it'd be like 120 billion market, it's still a tiny tiny portion of world economy, isn't it? but a huge portion of the online payments economy actually eclipsing it by 60 billion I believe |
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hello I would like to buy puts at flexible sizes on bitcoin.
I really need a *liquid* derivatives exchange
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semantics aside it is a stored value system
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I want a clearance lol No you don't it's a pain in the ass. You even have to fill out forms to travel abroad. This is exactly why I moved away from DC, I saw what my career path was there |
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Hey guys, how do I use John K's escrow, is there a formal way? like topic and message of a PM to John K
well more immediately, someone wants to pay me with John K's escrow, so they should be the one asking but I also don't want to lose the sell or waste time. so it would be good to know regardless
I did a google search with mixed results, but maybe there is a sticky somewhere here that you denizens know about
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Just to report, Im receiving dividends from my JDBIF scam shares  It is paying a bit every day. And I withdraw ASAP. lol, thats funny because the crux of 3 pages worth of "why this fund is a scam" was based on that other person's fund being a scam in the past lol, yep, you can't judge ev1 equaly, oh my... I'm a little disappointed that the company's name is now associated with the near-libelous accusations in this thread on search engines, I knew that was a risk but I thought I was being transparent |
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how much r u asking
sent PM |
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