Hi all,
Can anyone lay out Armstrong's broad stock market predictions for the next 5 years for those who haven't yet read every post and article?
If I am understanding correctly, he's predicting the top at 2015.75~ and then a recession/downward trend to 2020~?
I think he never said the top will be in 2015.75. According to Armstrong the top will be later, but until we get to the top (maximum 30,000 but most likely a lower figure) around 2017 there will be a volatile market with lots of ups and downs. You haven't read my posts carefully. How many times I have explained that the top outside the USA is 2015.75. That is also the top in sovereign bonds. As the rest of the world is collapsing after October (not instantly but contagion spreading throughout 2016) and short the dollar (due to dollar debt abroad due to QE carry trade), this will drive international capital stampeding into the US dollar and US stocks for one last bubble to peak in 2017. After that, the USA will join the rest of the world into collapse and from 2018 - 2020 will be utter chaos. Asia bottoms in 2020, but the West will continue going down for decades. |
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Government dictatorship is one of the very ugliest set of scenarios facing us. I hope TPTB's project is a step on the long & hard road to eventual freedom.
It will be a mixed bag. There won't be an absolute solution in any direction. Again diversification. By leading the way for more people to be productive with a scalable crypto currency, we will be laying the ground work for humanity. This is a our duty as well as our profit.  |
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The contagion that will accelerate end of this month, will cause a stampede into sovereign bonds. This will be the final peak in the 30+ year sovereign bond bubble.  Since speculative capital follows speculative capital, this will suck capital out of everything else. Gold and Bitcoin will experience massive short selling because they are small markets easily driven down by such. Thus any sell off to below $700 and $100 will be a very significant buying opportunity for those who are wise. After Spring 2016, as the bond bubble is clearly crashing, there will be a global stampede into that will envelope into a phase transition high in mid to late 2017 for us dollar and us stocks: - us dollar
- us stocks
- private assets such as gold and Bitcoin will start to get a bid
The greatest craziest gains for gold and crypto may come after 2017, as the us dollar and us stocks fall into the global collapse and there are no other assets to turn to in order to safeguard capital. By that point, cypto features such as anonymity may be very important. From 2016 to 2017, the most important features of crypto will be scalability and ability to do safe instant transactions while not centralizing the mining. Bitcoin can't do this. |
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In addition to that point, Monero relies on I2P which doesn't provide anonymity against the NSA.
Once you are on the internet it is not possible to hide from the NSA that you are using an application such as I2P and I think it will be the case with your new application as well. The NSA will know who is using your network just like they can figure out who is using I2P. I doubt it is possible to design anything in which the TCP or UDP traffic is not traceable by the NSA. The NSA is able to track down what users use once the application is connected to the internet. However, if I2P is properly configured it is possible to hide the content of the communication from even NSA. At this stage and using the current computing power NSA unable to break the encryption of I2P. Using this internet the traceability can't be avoided but an adequate privacy can be achieved with I2P which in my opinion terms of content privacy is a safe solution. I have already designed an anonymity network that can statistically hide patterns of traffic from an entity that can see every packet that moves over the internet. Tor and I2P aren't even close to accomplishing this. For example, for Tor and I2P just flood an onion route with traffic and the path through to the hidden server lights up with more traffic than the rest of the nodes. Numerous other fundamental flaws. The remaining issue is that the governments can simply ban an anonymity network. So if you don't make something popular then don't expect it to be resistant to government. I can definitely improve upon Tor, I2P, and Bitmessage and give us anonymity for some years when we really need it. But the governments will eventually wise up and cooperate with each other and ban it (will take them some years to get there though). Or maybe there will be a few governments that don't, then we be on a new playing field and win. Or maybe the people of the world end up using it and it becomes very popular, then the governments can't ban it (just like they can't ban porn and other popular activities). Please do not say what it is not technically possible if you haven't actually gotten down into the nitty gritty details. It is indeed very difficult to hide traffic patterns. The main challenge will be insuring that not most of the nodes in the anonymity networked aren't Sybil attacked. For this, reputation is very important. Humans will have to do what they do best, which is gauge trust levels. For example, would you trust my nodes if I digitally signed that I was operating them honestly? There must be a profit incentive to operate a node, which is where micropayment channels come in (even Bitcoin could in theory do real-time channels with the proposed Lightening network). Overall we need to look at anonymity as a hedge of our bets. What we most want is decentralized digital currency that can scale to a million transactions per second, that no government nor global entity can control. Even if it is not anonymous that will be a big win. Bitcoin can't scale and remain under decentralized control. If we also can get strong anonymity in there, then perhaps jurisdictions will open up in the world where they respect and use the anonymity. Or perhaps we there remain enough avenues to continue to use the anonymity in spite of government's attempts to ban such things (there are technical possibilities as well good ole human ingenuity). I think it is important to get those technologies out there and enable people to start employing them in different ways, so the ecosystems become mature, funded, and out pacing the government. The government has a difficult time of telling widespread humanity not to earn money on something they are already profiting from. Humans are hard headed in that case. For example, the Chinese, the Mongolians, the Iranians, etc, etc, etc. I have perfected all those designs. Again a Bitcoin killer. And I am not joking. You miss this investment and you miss an opportunity of a lifetime. P.S. Feeling great today. I think I am on the way to being cured of M.S.!!! So excited. But I said this in the past. So hold on for confirmation. So far, I feel entirely different. I feel my life coming back. The contagion that will accelerate end of this month, will cause a stampede into sovereign bonds. This will be the final peak in the 30+ year sovereign bond bubble. Since speculative capital follows speculative capital, this will suck capital out of everything else. Gold and Bitcoin will experience massive short selling because they are small markets easily driven down by such. Thus any sell off to below $700 and $100 will be a very significant buying opportunity for those who are wise. After Spring 2016, as the bond bubble is clearly crashing, there will be a global stampede into that will envelope into a phase transition high in mid to late 2017 for us dollar and us stocks: - us dollar
- us stocks
- private assets such as gold and Bitcoin will start to get a bid
The greatest craziest gains for gold and crypto may come after 2017, as the us dollar and us stocks fall into the global collapse and there are no other assets to turn to in order to safeguard capital. By that point, cypto features such as anonymity may be very important. From 2016 to 2017, the most important features of crypto will be scalability and ability to do safe instant transactions while not centralizing the mining. Bitcoin can't do this. Government dictatorship is one of the very ugliest set of scenarios facing us. I hope TPTB's project is a step on the long & hard road to eventual freedom.
It will be a mixed bag. There won't be an absolute solution in any direction. Again diversification. By leading the way for more people to be productive with a scalable crypto currency, we will be laying the ground work for humanity. This is a our duty as well as our profit. |
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r0ach, Monero is the best on chain anonymity coin that is live now. I have a much superior on chain anonymity solution designed and it is under implementation. In addition to that point, Monero relies on I2P which doesn't provide anonymity against the NSA. Additionally Monero just like all PoW coins to date, can't scale (pruning or not is irrelevant to scaling) without mining becoming centralized thus losing censorship resistance.
For the time being, I am happy we have Monero. But I am not satisfied and am definitely planning on replacing it. Whether it is a good investment or not, is every person's own decision to make. I believe we are in down market for crypto until Spring and also I don't think anonymity is big enough market to go after alone. I will of course be going after anonymity, but that won't be the main market I am targeting. If you really want a big gain on investment, you need a really big target market. I'd rather go after social networks, etc.. The improved anonymity will come as an optional side benefit.
P.S. my personal update...(not narcissistic rather I am updating people who are following because they may interested in my work and also for others suffering health ailments)
I had to come over here to this location at midnight, because today my gf bought the baby coconuts that don't have sufficient white meat and the other mature coconuts she purchased 2 weeks ago were rotten and I didn't know it until I tried to open one tonight to eat. I ate one mature coconut earlier today that was not rotten. I have some virgin coconut oil here at this location. I am adding hot sauce to make the taste more tolerable. I ate only raw leafy greens and coconut meat today starting at 3am on my first day back to eating. I had no readjusment issues whatsoever in stomach. I ran twice today (morning and midday) and felt good in the heat (normally M.S. makes one heat intolerant). Well all I can say is I have strange feeling in my head and I am not sure yet if it is good or bad. Seems like a soreness instead of a pain, sort of like what you feel when a bruise is healing. No problems with headaches today or any aspect of the M.S.. Had some itchiness on my body, some usual M.S. cramps and twitching, and some lack of energy because just started eating. But no feelings like a wet towel draped over my head, no welts at the back of the head, no extreme itchness on the head. Overall I can be feel positive hope thus far that maybe this is working towards a cure. No chronic fatigure syndrome today nor during fasting! I am not really entirely satiated by this diet. I did take naps today. My excessive and too frequent urination stopped during fasting and remains stopped thus far.
Eat EXCLUSIVELY raw leafy greens and virgin coconut oil only diet and you'd be cured of everything. I am adding hot sauce to my coconut oil to add some taste. Add Kochumba tea to get your intestinal flora correct. Trust me you feel a lot younger. Regular vigorous exercise is also very important.
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http://www.lakersnation.com/kobe-bryant-begins-shooting-for-first-time-since-shoulder-surgery/2015/08/22/Bout damn time!! Two superstars who have been hobbled over the past 3 years hoping to make a comeback. This morning started eating raw leafy greens and coconut meat exclusively. Ran 2 kms. Hope this works. http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakers/la-sp-kobe-shaq-feud-20150830-story.htmlO'Neal asked Bryant if this would be his last season.
"I'm training and getting ready for the season," said Bryant, who has resumed shooting after surgery to repair a torn right rotator cuff. "I'm really excited about this is my 20th [season]. Twenty years. That's nuts! I couldn't imagine playing for 20 years back in the day. So I'm just getting ready. I'm really excited for the team." Feeling excited today. Feels really great to get some energy food back in my body. Feels really great to run at 6am. Feels really great to start a day of work with a clear mind, energy, and no headache! Hope my health cooperates...
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Understand what China is up to (long-term) and why Asia will lead from 2020 forward: http://blog.mpettis.com/2015/08/do-markets-determine-the-value-of-the-rmb/Monetary freedom. The well-known “impossible trinity” makes it impossible for a central bank to control both domestic interest rates and the exchange rate if its capital account is open. Although technically not open, China’s capital account is porous enough for all practical purposes. This means that as long as the PBoC intervenes in the currency, it cannot provide debt relief to struggling borrowers, and to the economy overall, by lowering interest rates without setting off potentially destabilizing capital outflows. This constraint would be even tighter if the Fed began to raise interest rates. Reform of the exchange rate mechanism restores interest rate flexibility. http://business.inquirer.net/198183/china-premier-insists-economy-within-appropriate-rangeChina premier insists economy ‘within appropriate range’
He added that “in the context of complex and changing situations abroad and deep-rooted problems at home, we pressed ahead with progress while ensuring stability with sustained efforts for structural reforms and targeted macro-regulation measures”.
“These included, among others, cuts in the required reserve ratio, interest rates, taxes and fees and measures aimed at stabilizing the market, which are already paying off.”
Li conceded that “now that the traditional drivers for growth are not as strong, it is important to come up with new measures to bolster reform and opening up. It is necessary to provide more public goods and services, and encourage mass entrepreneurship and innovation to boost the growth momentum”. Short-term they have a lot of deflation pain to go through to kill off the redundancy and waste in their economy. |
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I've been formulating the design of the perfect anonymity network.
It has become apparent that there will be no way to reliably hide servers that have a very high amount of traffic, because they need to blend in with the users.
Thus the age of distributed databases is upon us. MaidSafe doesn't appear to me to be the correct (and certainly not the complete) solution (details will be explained in the future or will become apparent).
The future will be one where a website is essentially a gateway that coordinates the many users who are actually serving and sharing the data with each other.
Nearly everything about creating and programming a website will change. Programmers will have to adjust.
One (amongst a multitude) of the fundamental mistakes both I2P and Tor make is the hidden servers publish onion routes to themselves. This is essentially "call me". Instead the only way to make them secure is to invert the control to "I will call you". There are so many fundamental errors in I2P and Tor, it makes you wonder if the designers are complete idiots. Rather I think their goal wasn't anonymity against the NSA, just privacy against your average Joe Blow.
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http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36655 QUESTION: Dear Martin.
Does Socrates think the human race is doomed to be a failed species in the end because of this?
ANSWER: This is what we face about once every 300 years. Society can make it to the next step in our evolution if we at least understand what we are dealing with. Government is collapsing. They will fight fiercely to retain that power. That is what they want everything. This is exactly like Stalin – paranoid. They live in fear of revolution and are preparing for the worst. If we prevail, we can graduate to the next step.Yet so many people keep trying to drag us down condemning us to relive the past unable to see the future.
By no means are we doomed. Yet this is a real struggle. Please everyone email this to Armstrong. His email address is: armstrongeconomics@gmail.comCan't he see what the above chart says? I have written about this extensively in the Economics Devastation thread. This is the end of usury finance and debt. I have explained why in the Economics Devastation thread. This is a momentous change for humanity. Why do you think I am working on anonymous solutions we need in order to cross the chasm! Please support my efforts. It is that damn important.
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http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36655QUESTION: Dear Martin.
Does Socrates think the human race is doomed to be a failed species in the end because of this?
ANSWER: This is what we face about once every 300 years. Society can make it to the next step in our evolution if we at least understand what we are dealing with. Government is collapsing. They will fight fiercely to retain that power. That is what they want everything. This is exactly like Stalin – paranoid. They live in fear of revolution and are preparing for the worst. If we prevail, we can graduate to the next step.Yet so many people keep trying to drag us down condemning us to relive the past unable to see the future.
By no means are we doomed. Yet this is a real struggle. Please everyone email this to Armstrong. His email address is: armstrongeconomics@gmail.comCan't he see what the above chart says? I have written about this extensively in the Economics Devastation thread. This is the end of usury finance and debt. I have explained why in the Economics Devastation thread. This is a momentous change for humanity. Why do you think I am working on anonymous solutions we need in order to cross the chasm! Please support my efforts. It is that damn important.
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The market will raise the interest rates. The Fed is forced to follow. The market is moving into bonds for the speculative gains but once that peaks probably within September, the market will move into US stocks for speculative gains. That will drive interest rates up. Once rates start moving up in a speculative spiral, the 30 year sovereign bond trend is done. And government and socialism are done. We are in the end game.
Remember the rest of the world is short the dollar (QE carry trade). All international capital will flow into the US stock market. Private assets such as Bitcoin and gold will finally get a bid again after Spring once it is clear that the public assets abroad are dead. As the flow of international capital (and domestic mainstreet capital piling on at the end) peaks in 2017, the USA will go over the cliff and we go into an global hell of deflation from 2018 to 2020. Bitcoin and gold will likely rise incredibly high during this time as government desperately hunts down all capital it can find.
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Yes central banking was needed to maintain confidence because the large concentration of monetary capital required for production in the Industrial Age, but in the fledgling Knowledge Age knowledge capital can not so centralized and thus we no longer will need a central bank to prevent runs on confidence.
The problem is not leverage. Rather root of the problem has been that capital enslaved labor until (just recently) knowledge became the predominant component of production startup costs. Think it out[1] and you will see the generative essence of the issues you are raising are all due to the fact that capital enslaved labor and this actually supported (and required![2]) the large collectivization of society. You repeated almost verbatim what I have written upthread  |
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rpietila have you seen that Christianity is taking over China?
The Communist Party is wrecked. The taipans don't want to give up their State owned enterprises monopolies which is what is holding back China.
We are nearing another Berlin wall collapse. Armstrong's computer model says Asia will bottom by 2020.
Anonymous currency and internet will be non-violent tools the people can employ to assert their sovereignty so they can ruled by only one King (for atheists that is a different King than for Christians).
Sorry, thought you were being serious about this comment to Risto and lumped you into the taking Revelations as what will actually happen crowd. In which case you may not be directly quoting, but directly paraphrasing a book by a bunch of dudes who think they have divine inspiration from a magical spaceman. In truth i don't want to know your religious beliefs and didn't go any further in my speculation than those two items (one yours, one Risto's) in the thread. Did I not write that atheists have a different King (probably themselves or "nature" or the "universe") than Christians. That is logically a balanced statement that includes everyone, not just Christians. I think we can drop this topic. We are muddling the point that China is rapidly shifting from Communist to Christian. |
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Btw on the Bitcoin killer. We're moving faster now...
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I love TPTB_need_war and Risto, but when they start quoting a book...
Did I quote the Bible in this recent discussion? Maybe you can more carefully review the posts where I have quoted the Bible and try to figure out what my stance really is. It is not the one you assume above. It is also not your stance. My spirituality is personal and I am not required to tell any one. You could for example see my past post suggesting to OROBTC not to move from one addiction to next one (religion). Jesus was arguably against religion (see Matthew 6:5). Perhaps you will see my past post wherein I showed how Christianity was a continuation of the sun god. My post about China is the people are becoming disillusioned with communism and need a new religious delusion, and that means the Communist Party is wrecked. |
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