Dear Friends, Watching that so far discussion about martingale stuff reminded me about an interesting text I once read. The topic is well known (progressive systems do not work the way we all want), but the math is strong in order to explain that. It's named: "Mathematical Proof that Progressions cannot overcome Expectation."I leave here the direct link to it: http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/unfair.htmAnd there is still more about progressive systems here: http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/progress.htmEnjoy it!
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Thank you Financisto! You are invited to place a bet! What do you think about the max limit of 1 btc?
1BTC is quite right for begginers and for beta testers... Cheers!
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One more Bookmaker to join the market!
The website looks good and promising.
Keep up the good work!
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Congratulation to OP.
I really like the idea of adding Neural Nets and/or Genetic Algorithms to trading systems, specially adding those as auxiliar tools of money management / risk control (position sizing specifically).
Think about developing some ideas about Genetic Algos too!
I was just wondering if there'd be some way to test systems like we do nowadays with stocks: MetaStock (code systems) + TradeSim (backtest systems).
BTW, Octave (Matlab free alternative) is an excellent (and powerful) language to go programming even further that way...
Think about considering it.
Keep up the good work!
Cheers!
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@mem What about adding one more column to your gambling table? I'd suggest that you add a "Progressive Jackpot" as one more column. I guess that information matters a lot for gamblers that are searching for places where they get better winning odds (at least not losing so fast) in the long run, and that info might be of some importance. Summary: Column: "Prog(ressive) Jackpot" Legend: Is/are there any progressive jackpot(s) available at that game/site/casino? Options: Yes / No * Now using csv generated version of the list (yay version 2), which has greatly reduced the time taken to update this list. Im still pretty busy atm so reviewing sites my take a while, I accept dooglus's endorsement of provably fair if he reviews your site before I do so. Pal, You brought a lot of hard work for yourself trying to update that list frequently, don't you? It will consume your time unless you delegate that site's reviews tasks. Collaborators may be needed... Keep up the good work anyway! Cheers!
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Nice initiative.
Give us some more currencies alternatives (USD/GBP/etc.).
Keep up the good work!
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I guess this thread is a candidate to become a sticky topic if we go further discussing it...
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Hey, we just started a user-driven wiki for Peerbet.org players: http://peerbetwiki.3owl.comHelp us grow! King regards KgBC alias The Brain Nice implementation! That's great, specially for newbies learn how available bots work. Suggestion for bots wiki section: add the winning odds for each bot's game; if it's provably fair; if there are available jackpots; (un)limited tickets; etc. Keep up the good work!
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Developing even further some theoric possibilities, there goes some quotes in order to add more alternatives for "gambling for a living" lifestyle... P.s. Hey! Don't complain! I've just said it is just THEORY! Topic: PROGRESSIVE JACKPOT Break-even point
In some games such as video poker, it is possible to compute an optimal playing strategy based on the frequency for each payoff versus the odds of hitting that payoff. Since the jackpot of a progressive video poker game is constantly growing, it eventually can reach a break-even point where the machine becomes a positive expectation bet for the player.
When the progressive jackpot is less than the break-even point, there is a negative expected value (house edge) for all players.
In the long run, with optimal strategy, a video poker player can make a profit, although the "long run" is generally longer than most people think. (Several tens of thousands of plays.)
It is worthwhile to note that a break-even point cannot be easily calculated on a slot machine game, because the payback percentage for the game is normally unknown to the player. The break-even point in video poker can be calculated because the payback percentage for the game is a function of the paybacks and odds of the poker hands, which is based on a standard 52 card deck. The return of a slot machine is based on the published paytable, but also on the normally unpublished reels. For a five reel slot machine, the player would need to know each symbol on each of the slot machine's five reels, in order to calculate the odds. For a three reel slot, the reels are normally weighted, and this would not be possible. However, in some circumstances the manufacturer may publish the payout of their machines.
Advantage play
Advantage players who only play when the progressive jackpot provides them with a positive expectation situation still generate revenue for the casino. This is a unique situation where the player has an advantage over the house, yet the casino is still making a profit from the player. This situation occurs because the bulk of the progressive jackpot has been bought and paid for by the other players' contributions to the jackpot.
Savvy gamblers sometimes organize teams of players to play machines where the progressive jackpots generate a positive expectation situation. Such teams often displace ordinary players, making the machines unavailable just when they are at their most interesting. Team members will often have cell phones and work in shifts, calling another teammate to replace them when they're ready for a break. Some casinos have a policy of "no team play", and will eject players suspected of playing in such teams. That comes right from our ultimate source of "ready-to-implement" knowledge: the almighty Wikipedia. As already said before: do not gamble what you can't afford to lose! Best of luck in all your gambling endeavors!
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Its easy with skill based games to feel like you're always making money, but you always lose eventually Variance plays a big role on that kind of events... 3) Beating sports - it is done by very few - and I mean very fucking few. Google Billy Walters. Google Haralobos Voulgarious Proly gotta spellcheck those. These 2 kill it. A handful of others beat it. Millions claim to know their shit and lose each week.
Just to complement your post, that guy is known as Haralobos Voulgarious Proly. He's just as a legend as Billy Walters himself. They're that tough elite gentlemen on the top 1% sportsbettors. Damn way to get there IMHO...
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Sticky this.
+1 BTW, I just think Mr. Lazlo just opened another account at BT just in order to not be bothered about the MegaPizza incident. That guy really need to be mentioned on Guinness World Records (does it exist yet?). Does anyone want some pizzas like that? By 10k BTC I can also send you some strippers and champagne? Litecoin also accepted! LOL I'm glad to post here, epic thread anyway! Cheers!
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What about a namecoin implementation of bitaddress.org ? It would be very useful.
Glad to see that you forked and did it ( namecoinia) by yourself! "If you want it well done, do it yourself!" By the way, what about adding a zip version ( github) in order to use it as an offline address generator?
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Very nice app.
Keep up the good work!
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Nice java app.
Keep up the good work!
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Hey guys, I can see this thread has brought up some touchy points. This is not the martingale method as you 3x on loss not 2x. Feel free to email me at blobsrs@gmail.com if you have any further questions. You're right. That's not the original Martingale. It's even more destructive... For those interested in that stuff there's A Review of Progressive Betting Systems here. Have a good time reading.
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After what happened with first bits, I'm not relying on something like that again.
But there must be a way to do it right without serious issues involved...
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Just in case someone never heard about: 3. Increase your odds: Before doing your base bet, bet 1 satoshi unless you lose 3-4 in a row. This will increase your odds of winning the next set of bets. See: Gambler's Fallacy4. If you win your base bet, go back to betting 1 satoshi until you are on a losing streak.
5. If you lose your base bet, follow this formula to calculate the next amount to bet: (Previous Loss) * 3 = Next bet See: Martingale (betting system) variation P.s. "The house (Casinos)" should not be allowed to encourage people to follow that kind of strategies as it might lead them to a complete bankroll disaster. That's a little bit imoral IMHO. And as we can infere, you are the owner of "Insanity Dice".
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Never saw such an awkward "casino" launch announcement like this one before... Good luck dude! You will really need it!
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You can buy .1 already. But I understand, you want everyone else to buy that as the minimum as well. I will take note of the suggestion, but I don't think I can implement that just yet. To most people, that's about $10 USD.
What we need is incentive to buy many tickets. Thus so far, we have the worm tickets and the volume tickets, and possible the repeat bettor. I'm still thinking about this one.
How is "the repeat bettor" going to work? I don't know that implementation yet. And BTW, creating one game with 1 BTC entry price ticket (BTC's price has gone way down since that post) would be important to prevent the game from turning into an lottery in order to remain a raffle game. I can't consider a game with over 100 tickets sold as a simple raffle anymore. It's lottery already. People with one single ticket purchased will get winning odds of less than 1%. We've already got a lot of lottery sites out there, but just a few options of raffle games. Cheers!
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I've thought about that as well, financisto. I may add one to the site eventually, especially if the value of BTC drops a bit more. I've been mulling over the idea of adding a weekly 0.1 ticket drawing, but everything is still new and evolving. It's actually become a lottery now. Tomorrow night's jackpot is sitting at BTC8.3057. With tickets being unlimited, someone could still spend 1btc only they would receive 100 tickets instead of 1, while at the same time pretty much dominating the field. But as of right now, I don't think a BTC1 drawing would get much use. Thanks for the feedback, duder.
That's why creating one game with 1 BTC entry price ticket would be important: to prevent the game from turning into an lottery in order to remain a raffle game. I can't consider a game with over 100 tickets sold as a simple raffle anymore. It's lottery already. People with one single ticket purchased will get winning odds of less than 1%. We've already got a lot of lottery sites, but just a few options of raffle games. That's all... Cheers!
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