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as a cycle analyst, i would not be buying stocks in any non-US market based on assumptions that QE will drive prices. it could in fact make it worse. look at the charts of Germany, Spain, and Italy. they've all rolled over and assuming QE is going to change that is risky. comparison to the US and QE is not appropriate as we have the world's reserve currency so the dynamic is different. non-US economies tend to be much more fragile and prone to disruptions so the risk is high. in fact, deflation may be starting to rear it's ugly head once again in a new cycle of downturns to come. buying a falling knife could hurt.
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yes, UST's following suit. so who the hell is buying stocks?  |
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unbelievable. can you imagine having to "pay" to own one of these debt instruments? i understand the argument that it has a state guarantee behind it but c'mon. |
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A simple look to the bitcoin orderbook ( https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/order_book) confirms that. We had about 7000 bitcoins on bid orders down to 30 usd. Currently, we see 23,290 btcs. Many lenders converted themselves into cliffdivers net. An activity suitable for risk-averse investors. here's the visual:  |
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the whole system is like that. this is why alot of ppl predict a massive deflationary event (deleveraging) followed by hyperinflation as the CB's print to try and stop the deflation. otoh, you really have to admire how well they've kept the system duck taped together at the expense of the public. how long can it last? |
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the Fed is going to do whatever it takes to fight this deflation, so look out. but will they really raise interest rates? i seriously doubt it. this Keynesian experiment has created a very high risk situation so get yourselves into safety, however you define that. Fall is coming and the worst crashes usually come during this time:
How do you define safety in this crazy environment? Bitcoin obviously  , but let's imagine you want some diversification... USD or UST. flip a coin. i think one of them will suffer in the next downturn and i'm not sure which one. |
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the Fed is going to do whatever it takes to fight this deflation, so look out. but will they really raise interest rates? i seriously doubt it. this Keynesian experiment has created a very high risk situation so get yourselves into safety, however you define that. Fall is coming and the worst crashes usually come during this time:
How do you define safety in this crazy environment? Bitcoin |
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Looks like no more dumpers left... up we go  429 coin wall at 517 D: these walls ain't loyal
Wall eaten! Wall down. I repeat wall down.  confirmed a lot of the movement is happening in the North American overnight.. interesting...trying to catch the sheep sleeping. hmm any thoughts or is it just Europeans doing business during regular hours via bitstamp? Get ready for another $520 -> $4xx flash crash Prepare to be steam rolled. |
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eating thru the wall @ 517
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the world has gone crazy. has been so for a long while. deflation is spreading thru Europe now and Japan has been there for decades. the spread btwn German and US 2y bond yields has widened to the most since 2007 as the bund yield has collapsed as a result of deflationary expectations and a flight to safety in Europe. plummeting German yields will drag US yields even lower as deflation spreads here. the US yield curve is flattening (warning sign). the euro is dropping fast as everyone expects Draghi to start the European version of QE. oh gaud. this is helping to drive the USD up which will only serve to bring deflation here. the US stock mkt is hitting new highs on the lowest volume of the year. please. it's quite simply amazing that we're seeing UST yields continue to drop once again even after a multi decade rally in bonds. all the QE money is going into suppressing yields and not into true economic growth. the Fed has record amounts of UST's on it's books and the private markets supply is low leading to an even greater bid for this garbage as everyone is moving to "safety". but yet the majority of investors and institutions regard this as high quality paper which is in record demand. this flips traditional economics on it's head as you'd think all this printing would be causing rates to spike, but not so. just the opposite. complicated times so look out. especially gold and silver will be hurt badly by deflation. this is also why we're seeing oil prices drop and certain housing data roll. the Fed is going to do whatever it takes to fight this deflation, so look out. but will they really raise interest rates? i seriously doubt it. this Keynesian experiment has created a very high risk situation so get yourselves into safety, however you define that. Fall is coming and the worst crashes usually come during this time: http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/vudpbIruJhpQ.mp3%20%E2%80%A6http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-08-25/treasury-two-year-notes-yield-most-versus-germany-since-2007 |
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i would say that the 2016 halving is definitely not priced in yet.
The efficient market theory is a flawed theory indeed but it is efficient in that speculators are not willing to buy it up this far ahead. a boatload of things could happen btwn now and then. like i said, the first indication i got that speculators were starting to front run was the run to 15.5 May 2014. and that was after a month of me urging my subs to start accumulating. someone is going to try and front run for sure. it's just a matter of detecting when a significant # of them start to act in concert driving the price up. at the time, 6 mo ahead was a perfectly reasonable time to start doing so. Well market prices of billion dollar companies fluctuating at several percentage points each day at least is another useful hint Anyway, if you want to front run, just start accumulating today. indeed, that is one strategy: buy all dips. especially ones at the end of an 8 mo stagnation. |
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i would say that the 2016 halving is definitely not priced in yet.
The efficient market theory is a flawed theory indeed but it is efficient in that speculators are not willing to buy it up this far ahead. a boatload of things could happen btwn now and then. like i said, the first indication i got that speculators were starting to front run was the run to 15.5 May 2014. and that was after a month of me urging my subs to start accumulating. someone is going to try and front run for sure. it's just a matter of detecting when a significant # of them start to act in concert driving the price up. at the time, 6 mo ahead was a perfectly reasonable time to start doing so. |
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Student loans the fastest growing debt.
They are getting them younger.
The education can't be taken away, but you also can't pass it on to your heirs.
It is as ephemeral as it is inalienable.
worse than that, college provides students with schooling, not education. Any education may occur is purely accidental and contrary to the goal of producing well-schooled students. There's a distressing amount of distrust of "education" in this thread sometimes. I have to say, aside from this community, higher-ed has, in my experience, been full of the most establishment-challenging people I've ever met. Granted, they tended to skew fiscal-liberal (youth and inexperience can do that), but nevertheless displayed honest and critical questioning of the status quo, over a pretty wide variety of thought. That said, you may be specifically referring to K-12 public education in the US, in which case I'll offer no opinion because I have no personal experience with it. yeah, but consider where you went. |
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both stocks and gold/silver dove into the close.
i don't like that.
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