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581  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: April 01, 2024, 05:54:17 PM
Exactly.. Selling and expecting to buy back cheaper (to increase your BTC stash) contains a lot of uncertainties, and seems so easy in theory, but not as easy in practice.... so then one of the main logical solutions is not to sell any of your BTC unless you are expecting to not be able to buy it back.. so then that means that you either have enough or you have excess... it is difficult for a bitcoin newbie to get to a position of having enough or excess bitcoin, but if a bitcoin newbie reaches a status of having enough or too much BTC, then he has more options regarding how to treat his BTC holdings.

so that also means that if the goal of selling your BTC is to be able to get more BTC, then that makes less sense than just continuing to buy BTC.. so that if you conclude that you don't have enough, you just keep buying until you have enough or too much.

I understand what I am saying does not make sense to some people, especially those who really believe that there is some value to try to sell BTC in order to buy back more, and so they are free to employ such strategy, which has questionable odds of success.. especially if it ends up getting the guy out of the buying and accumulating mindset.. which truly is the most assured way to actually build a bitcoin stash to high amounts.
For this reason, I am more interested in continuing to hold and accumulate bitcoin at low prices with reserve funds, therefore reserve funds are really needed to take advantage of the opportunity to buy on the decline. Selling is certainly not a good principle for someone if they are planning an investment in the long term but they change their mind by selling and buying again which can turn things into quite a mess.
I totally agree with you. except you've reached a stage where you can boldly say, I'm at the peak of my investment and want to sell off my holding iether to upgrade my standard of living or you've gained that level of freedom that can put you im a position to fuk out of making an investment at all,  whatever comes outside of that as a reason to selling your holding should be sorted out with the emergency funds. It's even better you have special funds set aside for the purpose of buying when the market is at the bearish season that selling part of you holding for that objective. Every decision you're going to make as it regards when you even think of tempering with your investment is in phases and all the theories and methods that have been regularly outlined in this thread is not for everybody but relates for some people and it's just okay to choose which methord that works well for you based on your current Bitcoin accumulation stage and how much you want to accumulate at a particular point in time.

It's not everybody that should talk about selling and thier are others that aren't even buying now but are just waiting for Bitcoin to get to a particular price which is their set out profit point and you don't want to start comparing yourself that's still not strong and have as little as $500 worth of Bitcoin in your portfolio. Those that have reached the range of the position where they are in profit can possibly think about selling but if you're still at the stage where you're yet to have a balanced and good amount of holding, don't even waste your time thinking on the need to sell, like @ gunsan said earlier, there is a lot of uncertainty involved in selling your holding as a methord that will help you accumulate more. To be a safer side, any money you've used in Buying Bitcoin should never go back to fiat untill you've reached you goal, of thier is a need to buy more during the bearish season, you can make it a necessity to find special funds that will work well for that.
Thinking you reached enough coins may be an error. Can’t be sure 10 or 20 or 30 is enough. But 500 should be good.

This is not a bad topic regarding how many coins is enough, yet you are describing the subject matter in such extremes, including putting in a kind of sentiment of futility in regards to how to figure out how many coins is enough.

I doubt that the subject matter of figuring out how many coins is enough is as futile as you are making it out to be. 

Sure, it may be somewhat futile to attempt to generalize how many coins is enough for every person as if we were to live in a society in which people were not able to choose for themselves, and yeah, even though sometimes, it might not feel that we have choices even in regards to our own lil selfies, we still probably should be attempting to express and to exercise our individual choices whenever we are able to do so. .which sometimes can be an uncomfortable and not easy thing to do.

I will admit that there are likely a few obstacles that any of us are likely going to have in determining how many coins that we need, and from my own perspective, I think that in bitcoin many folks error in regards to trying to valuate their coins based on spot price rather than figuring out some kind of fair and meaningful valuation - which might be something like the 200-WMA or maybe some other way of assessing fair valuations so that they do not contribute to exaggerating their own expectations regarding what is feasible and/or reasonable to do whether we are considering the matter of continuing to accumulate BTC or even matters regarding maintenance, sustainable withdrawal and/or liquidation.

Younger people might have some greater difficulties assessing how much of a monthly income that they want to maintain as compared with older people, and their difficulties would likely have to do with either their shorter period of being able to measure and/or their aspirations to increase their standard of living, yet not necessarily having very good practical reference points.  So, some value could come from experience in regards to figuring out monthly cashflow needs, yet surely there could be some ways to either theoretically think through the matter of future expected expenses and/or to just make sure to have some kind of a meaningful price cushion, such as striving to reach 2x, 5x, 10x or some other kind of target that is much greater than the estimated needed amount.

So for example, a guy might conclude that he would be able to work with some kind of default western-style entry-level fuck you status income of $6,666 per month, so long as that income level keeps up with the actual inflation (and/or debasement of the dollar/fiat) that is most likely inevitably going to continue into the relevant upcoming future.

So if he has his target monthly cashflow, then he should be able to come up with some meaningful range in regards to how many coins that he needs, and only recently I have become more convicted that BTC has very good chances (enough to bank on) to be able to continually generate and sustain a 10% withdrawal rate, so long as the valuation of how many coins that one has is accomplished from bottom BTC prices rather than BTC spot prices or some other less reliable ways of valuating the coins that a guy has stacked. 

So right now, I am presuming that 24.4 BTC is enough to sustainably maintain a $6,666 per month withdrawal rate forever into the future including inflation and/or debasement of the dollar/various fiat. I think that the sustainable withdrawal tool that bitmover and I put together helps to figure out these kinds of numbers, yet each of us remains responsible in regards to how we might use any of these kinds of estimation tools that show history.. while at the same time, they are not exactly speculating into the future, so each of us has to engage in our own speculations in order to come to numbers and/or methods that we believe to be workable for our own situations.  Of course if your expected monthly income numbers are different, and/or if you reach differing conclusions in regards to what amount of BTC you would be able to withdraw per year/month, then you are going to end up with results that differ from my own.

So before we invest we need to focus the goal and set a specific time frame for how many years we will hold our investment and accumulate bitcoins accordingly.

I think that you are overly stating the case AirtelBuzz.  Sure, it is good to have some ideas about where you are going and/or how long you are planning to invest, but many of the details can be worked out as you go, and one of the best things, especially in regards to bitcoin, is to get the fuck started asap, even if you might ONLY be starting with $10 per week.

Of course, if you start to invest aggressively and to maximize your available finances into bitcoin, then you are most likely going to need to have more ideas and/or details regarding specifics of your goals - yet even if you have some aggressive investment practices into bitcoin, you still might not necessarily need to know your exact timeline or even the amount of BTC and/or dollar value that you are shooting for - except that you are maybe aiming to maximize the likelihood that you are going to have more options in the future at some point 10-20 or perhaps 30 years down the road.. and some of the specifics and/or vagueness might also relate to age, in terms of older folks might be in a better position to specify their goals and their targets, but younger people might have hardly any clue, and they do not even necessarily need to lock themselves into specific goals.. but just have some general ideas of wanting to improve their situations in such a way that they realize that their future self will thank them for getting into bitcoin in a somewhat aggressive way as compared to if they had not gotten into bitcoin or if they had gotten into bitcoin too whimpily and in such a whimpy way that their efforts would hardly make any difference to their future self.

If we can set a specific time frame for our bitcoin deposits and keep depositing bitcoins every month or week accordingly, maybe our investment will gradually increase and we will be able to reach our specific goal.

There is nothing wrong with attempting to have some specifics around how much we might want to spend on bitcoin each week or month, so I have no problem with the idea of having various systems in place that allow for structuring buys and/or making assessments that might be around the times that we are paid each month or when our expenses might be due or known... since maybe some kinds of income and/or expenses might be somewhat fixed and knowable and other income/expenses might have a decent level of variation.

Personally, I like to use an excel spreadsheet to project my income/expenses 6 months to 24 months into the future, so using those kinds of projection tools can be very powerful in terms of attempting to plan some of the specifics that you seem to be arguing as important... and I am not going to disagree with you about those kinds of ideas because there are quite a few aspects of planning that can help to really empower us by giving us frameworks, while at the same time, we might not be able to really hone in on specifics, even though some of our planning tools might help us to narrow down various ranges and provide us with psychological and financial cushions... And, many times, I have asserted that we are frequently way better off psychologically when we are able to set up our finances in ways that are tailored to our circumstances and retain/maintain various kinds of built in financial cushions.. whether that is referred to as emergency funds, reserves and/or cash floats that are built into some kind of a meaningful projection forward.
582  Economy / Speculation / Re: 100 Push-Ups A Day Until Bitcoin Is $100K Challenge on: April 01, 2024, 05:01:52 PM
just did 100 steps of stairs down and back up total of 200.  I will be doing my bike and band exercises next

What happened to the planks?

Steps of stairs does have a body weight component, but it would likely be considered to be more about cardio rather than a kind of body weight/resistance training kind of exercise that would be somewhat similar to pushups.. like lunges could be considered to be a kind of body weight/resistance training or maybe if the stairs were done in a kind of stretching and lunging kind of way rather than cardio.. not that I am trying to be too nit-picky or to overly troll uie-poo-ie (even though I am.. hahahahahahaha.. I am like your jewish mother, even though you are seeming to be more elderly than me.. hahahahaha)
583  Other / Archival / Re: Are investors investing in Bitcoin at ATH now are fools ? on: April 01, 2024, 04:41:04 PM
Are investors investing in Bitcoin at ATH now are fools ?  Is there chance of major correction from here as prices have already peaked now.
Bro, you guys are overthinking this ATH as if it's the end of the fucking world if you missed out on investing at a lower price point. We've been dancing this tango for a little less over a decade now and you know for a fact that 1, this isn't the end for bitcoin just yet, as we're still about to reach another ATH soon as the bull run finally commences (yes, I believe we're still far from the real bull run and this one's a pseudo-bull that is caused by the massive anticipation of the people for the upcoming Halving) and 2, we're yet to even reach the Halving period yet, why are we assuming things when the prerequisites haven't even been met yet?

Chill out on calling people dumbfucks just cause they played and invested in crypto a little later than everyone else, at the end of the day as long as you don't sell, or you sell strategically while keeping one foot at the door you're going to be safe from missing out and you'd be able to earn money, if that's what you're really worried about. I myself would watch this whole thing pan out first, and from there either strategically sell my crypto and buy in at a lower value for more profit, or just keep on buying more despite the high crypto price. What always matter at the end of the day isn't when you bought your crypto, it's always if you bought crypto in the first place.

Holy fucking shit, Casdinyard.

I was about to send you an smerit since I was thinking that you were making some really good points, and then you start spouting off about some nonsensical, misleading and meaningless term such as "crypto," and it caused me to wonder if you even knew what the fuck you were talking about... You used it 4 times in two sentences, and 5 times within a paragraph that you did not even mention bitcoin in that second paragraph.

So then, yah, I had to go back through and read your post, and I see that you had used the word "bitcoin" so you do know the word, yet for some reason you seem to have it in your head that using the term "crypto" helps you to make more clearly whatever point you were intending to make?

No it does not help for you to be using dumbass, vague, meaningless and misleading terms like crypto without clarifying what you mean exactly and how it might relate to bitcoin.

If you had used the term "crypto" because you were trying to "go beyond bitcoin," and maybe you were wanting it to appear that you are more enlightened because the concepts that you are discussing are more than just bitcoin, then there might have had been a way to say that while still using the term bitcoin, and at least some of us would have recognized what you were talking about, even if we might have disagreed with such a point.

Hopefully you are teachable in terms of figuring out how to make sure that you are not parroting dumb, meaningless and misleading language merely because you hear some seemingly smart people using such a term.  There are quite a few folks using such sloppy, ambiguous and misleading language with the excuse that "everyone else is doing it," which surely is not a good excuse for parroting such.

Don't get me wrong, my comment is not intended to have anything to do with semantics and/or language police, since you are free to use whatever language that you like - yet you also may well end up getting pushback when you are using such vagaries and misleading language in connection with bitcoin when the term may well be a kind of attack vector upon bitcoin..

And, by the way, another thing that many of us likely recognize is that if we were involved in some kind of a legislative / regulatory process, we may well need to use such vague-ass language in our legal descriptions because we want the law and/or the regulation to be sufficiently broad enough to capture matters beyond just bitcoin - so there could be reasons for laws and/or regulations to employ that kind of broad language  - yet those kinds of rationales do not apply when we are talking in a thread like this about investing, saving and/or trading of bitcoin.
584  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: April 01, 2024, 04:01:57 PM
This viewpoint makes sense. It suggests that there's a need for more price data between the lower range before seeing significant stability and upward movement. Stability requires a measured pace of ascent, allowing sellers at lower levels the opportunity to sell off. Moving too quickly to higher prices could result in continued selling pressure from those waiting for better prices, leading to significant downward movement.

You are speaking a lot of garbled gobble-dee-gook.

Either you have no fucking clue what you are talking about, or perhaps you are a bot (or using a bot) to generate some kind of text that is dancing around what might be the subject matter of this thread - or something related to speculations about how BTC price discovery plays out.. what it is versus what it should be?

Why not go with the what price discovery is? rather than trying to describe what price discovery should be?

And, stability?  Who gives any shits about stability?  Bitcoin is a pretty damned new asset class, and at the same time, it happens to be disruptive, paradigm shifting and facilitating one of the greatest (if not the greatest) wealth transfer known to mankind, so why the fuck would that end up being without volatility and battles along the way?

Surely, BTC's weighted daily average price will smooth over some of the volatility for the day in order that we can get some kind of measurement for what the average price traded for the specific day might have had been, but in itself we are not necessarily going to figure out price direction - except surely we likely can appreciate that we are at the top of all time high prices when BTC prices are showing up on these top 100 price listings - and even to attempt to account for inflation (or debasement of the various currencies), we likely would need to be attempting to pull data in from other sources, even though  within these data sets we can see some evidence regarding how several of the currencies are debasing at different rates relative to each other.

Even though we are not really talking about investing versus trading in this particular thread, many of the longer-time bitcoiners tend to appreciate that the mere fact that some bitcoiners (perhaps newbies, weak-handed folks, traders, gamblers, and other categories of bitcoin uninformed) are going to be selling way too much of their bitcoin too soon, and surely for an overwhelming number of the world's population, there really should be little to no need to sell any of their bitcoin until they reach a status of over-accumulation - and the fact of the matter, there are likely in the high 90%s (perhaps even around 99%-ish) of the world's population who don't even have close to enough bitcoin in light of their own personal situations.. and they don't even necessarily realize or know that they should be staking sats rather then entertaining ideas of selling at profit or some of those kinds of selling ideas that you were referring to as if selling should be a reasonable objective for any average person who might be looking at this thread.. ..


and even long term bitcoiners also realize that even if BTC is touching upon and passing through ATHs and breaching into new price territories, these are not areas to be selling your bitcoin, unless you are already in bitcoin for a decent amount of time and have already reached overaccumulation status... so in those kinds of situations, you can sell some of your coins whenever you like and your choice to sell some is not necessarily dependent on BTC's price performance location - though surely there is advantages to selling on the way up rather than sellng during a correction period.
585  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2024, 04:24:01 AM
Turns out that King's Candy Crush terms and conditions are too long to post so I had to truncate them to 64k words which ever so slightly beat out JJGs post.

 Okay... I'm really going to bed now before I get myself permabanned.

 G' Night

I don't recall ever hitting the forum posting limit.. although when I had posted some long charts I was getting BB error codes, which maybe was a product of forum post limits. .it was my entry-level fuck you charts that I wanted to post until 2157, but the forum would ONLY let me post until 2074-ish...

Oh, and by the way, you are currently at -177,459 merits.. and I think that your title had been "certified Shitposter" since about -50,000-ish.. .. so I am not sure how many more negative merits are going to be possible.. maybe some other member wants to take it to lower levels.
586  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2024, 03:41:40 AM
You lose merits by the word so I couldn't think of a better person to quote than JJG who, by the way, I appreciate for the time and effort he puts into his posts; sharing his wisdom freely.
I think that theymos should punish you because of your finding a loophole, which was to quote and then to delete, which still preserves your negative merit status..

And the punishment is that you have to read and then write a short report on each of the posts that you quoted (and subsequently deleted) and each time you write your separate report for each post, it has to be with some original and interesting insight.. not just AI generated gobble-dee-gook.

hahahahahahaha

Now I am Death, the Destroyer of Forums.

 Edit: I've achieved AI status Smiley
Currently "certified shitposter."

Some interesting titles, and I am sure theymos had anticipated some attempts at gaming it.
I just quote and the  drop is slower, but I won’t delete.

I am down to senior member.
Some guys have "principles," which truly is not the case with homer, who seems to be on a mission to attempt to max it out prior to any other member.. which might be an interesting question.. regarding if there might be a max.
I am close to zero maybe this gets me into the zero level

Now that "we" have some funzies to be had, there is an excuse to give Buddy a "run for his money"..

He cannot keep up with this kind of a pace.. At least temporarily.

Fortunately and unfortunately I quoted the same post - it took me minutes to scroll through so I imagine I'll need a couple of days to read it and then about a week to summarize it!   Wink

Hahahahaha

"minutes?"


You must have a mouse for ants.
587  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2024, 03:36:19 AM
You lose merits by the word so I couldn't think of a better person to quote than JJG who, by the way, I appreciate for the time and effort he puts into his posts; sharing his wisdom freely.
I think that theymos should punish you because of your finding a loophole, which was to quote and then to delete, which still preserves your negative merit status..

And the punishment is that you have to read and then write a short report on each of the posts that you quoted (and subsequently deleted) and each time you write your separate report for each post, it has to be with some original and interesting insight.. not just AI generated gobble-dee-gook.

hahahahahahaha

Now I am Death, the Destroyer of Forums.

 Edit: I've achieved AI status Smiley
Currently "certified shitposter."

Some interesting titles, and I am sure theymos had anticipated some attempts at gaming it.
I just quote and the  drop is slower, but I won’t delete.

I am down to senior member.

Some guys have "principles," which truly is not the case with homer, who seems to be on a mission to attempt to max it out prior to any other member.. which might be an interesting question.. regarding if there might be a max.
588  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2024, 03:31:34 AM
You lose merits by the word so I couldn't think of a better person to quote than JJG who, by the way, I appreciate for the time and effort he puts into his posts; sharing his wisdom freely.

I think that theymos should punish you because of your finding a loophole, which was to quote and then to delete, which still preserves your negative merit status..

And the punishment is that you have to read and then write a short report on each of the posts that you quoted (and subsequently deleted) and each time you write your separate report for each post, it has to be with some original and interesting insight.. not just AI generated gobble-dee-gook.

hahahahahahaha

Now I am Death, the Destroyer of Forums.

 Edit: I've achieved AI status Smiley

Currently "certified shitposter."

Some interesting titles, and I am sure theymos had anticipated some attempts at gaming it.
589  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2024, 03:15:32 AM

You are making me feel famous or something..

And you know your new official title should be full of shit rather than full of hot air.. .wouldn't that be better?


 I quoted a recent JJG post 3 times and my merits plummeted!

On a personal level, I was just hoping to drop more "organically."
590  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2024, 03:10:21 AM
[edited out]
+1
Thanks JJG Smiley
 Okay, I'm done.

Edit: Oh shit.  One more of those and my merits will go negative!

Are you trying to make me feel bad for how much time I spent on responding to those guys..   

It sometimes starts to feel repetitive - I will tell you.
591  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2024, 03:05:45 AM
As for the original dog 🐶 i am making bank mining it as I type.

Can’t complain at all.

Why would you complain?

I am sure that you are loving your USD I-bonds too, or whatever you were so excited about in late 2022 with the 5% returns or whatever they were supposed to be guaranteeing you after the lock-up period was over.  You've made a killing on them, right?  #nohomo..
592  Other / Meta / Re: Adjustments to Merit calculation on: April 01, 2024, 03:01:32 AM
You're creative to make an April Fool's surprise. Let's move on... LOL.
If old users don't forget, maybe they already understand because it's April.
Still March 31 here, at least for another 1hr 46mins!  So it must be true Huh  Cheesy Cheesy

Theymos and/or the forum seems to operate on UTC... (I.e. universal time?)



Theymos is a bot.



I might as well throw out anything that I like on this "special" day  (gotta try to get even, you know?)


I also speculate that reading the forum for 10 days 24/7 will probably earn us less merit than posting one wee-widdo informative wannabe post.  

Where is the justice in that?   Angry

On a serious note, new ways to combat spam on the forum would be welcomed if they were well thought out and implemented effectively.

Yes.. there is a "new way" to combat spam that was implemented on the forum in January 2018.. called "the merit system," and now theymos went and screwed it all up.  


"We" (Royal perhaps?) had a good thing going.    Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry
593  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: April 01, 2024, 02:36:29 AM
Exactly, when you sell and indeed to buy back at a cheaper price you might end up not buying back because of so many reasons, which we cannot predict the outcome of what would happen by tomorrow. If you sell to buy back, it destabilize the purpose of investing and increasing your bitcoin portfolio. Patient does not have any role to okay here, because you are waiting for a time that you don't know when the price will dip for you to buy back, and you keep waiting hodling fiat that is depreciating in value.
 yeah alot of users are used to such act selling from their bitcoin holding with the mindset of replacing it , one thing you should be Aware of is that most time you won't have that privileged to buy it back that same price or cheaper price ( if one wanted to replace back) , like for instance now alot of users bought bitcoin during the time Bitcoin price was Around $10k , alot of users sold from their holding with the mindset of replacing it back, at the same ( they brought it)  or much lower price, but look at now bitcoin already around $70k and alot of people who sold like $500 worth of Bitcoin during $10k which would be 0.5 BTC . And lateron replace it back ( with $500,) during the price range of $60k which would give that same individual 0.0083333 BTC . You can see the great different. That's why not advisable to keep withdrawing from your investment even one having such mindset of selling with replacing it back .and we are all aware that those that started their bitcoin accummulation would be in more advantage's than those that invested now .

That is a fair example, except your math is wrong for the guy who sold 0.05 BTC at $10k (which is the equivalent of $500) in order to buy back cheaper, but he was not successful.

Another example of recent times is that there were probably plenty of guys selling on the way up from  $27k to $50k, and they were expecting to be able to buy back cheaper, and they may well not get any opportunities to buy back for cheaper than they sold, and at some point they may well have to suck it up since patience is not likely going to be enough to actually get an opportunity.

And, some of those kinds of folks who sell way too much too soon because of their expectation to buy back cheaper, they get into a pretty lame, negative and disgruntled mindset.. All because they thought that they were being smarter than everyone else.

We should understand and appreciate these examples that when we get 10-15 years down the road, we are likely going to be in a much better position in regards to our BTC stash and our overall wealth because we had continued to stack sats through thick and thin and even if our costs per bTC might be higher than otherwise, we may well end up accumulating way more BTC because we kept the right mindset of an accumulator and a sat stacker.
594  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2024, 02:21:32 AM
[edited out]
Why? Because this area of the market is still speculative and those "things" have a lot of momentum, and, surprisingly to me, did not completely fade into obscurity in the last bear by losing 99% (as I expected), but, instead, are running like "dogs", pardon the pun.

Many of us likely realize that there are always going to be a certain number and kind of shitcoins, and they sometimes might seem different, and sure they might reflect some kind of current happening in the culture.

You seem to not see this as some kind of weird cultural phenomenon (I do). That's fine, but I would hate to be in a situation when those nonsensical plays have ALL of the momentum and we stay flat.

Who cares?  Let them have their lil funzies.

Why should any of us (including uie-pooie) give any shits if there might be some folks getting rich as fuck off of scams?   Another thing that is likely is that the promoters and the designers of the coins might be getting rich more quickly, but they also might get too greedy, and surely there can be some normies who are able to get early and/or insider information and to get rich before the rug pull. .but again, so what?   Why do you feel some kind of a need to get distracted so easily?  Keep your eye on the prize.. . .and that is why your lil froggie has laser eyes, no?  use those laser eyes to keep ur lil selfie a wee bit MOAR better focused.

Alas, it would not be catastrophic, but maybe the complete opposite of any expectation from the "serious" market commenters.

That's it about the "dogs" from me...back to the "regular" program.

Who knows which themes are going to take off, and yeah, a lot of normies likely realized that various aspects of the system are against them, and so they love to gamble themselves some crypto.. and hopefully they have some luck from time to time, yet an overwhelming majority is probably putting way more money into those systems than he is getting out, but surely like any degenerate gambler he is likely going to mostly be telling you about his wins rather than his losses.

595  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2024, 02:09:51 AM
Trying to figure out if quoting you will really drop my merits a lot.

I think that it counts all of the characters that you write, plus any additional ones that you quote from others.  That's my sense of it.  It might take a bit of time to get down to zero and into the negatives.. .. post more and read less.  hahahahaha

I am going to stick with my regular posting style.. . which sometimes I quote and other times I do not.
596  Other / Meta / Re: Unofficial list of (official) Bitcointalk.org rules, guidelines, FAQ on: April 01, 2024, 02:06:15 AM
The most activity points that a member can earn per activity period is 14
This is not accurate. It's possible that a user can earn more than 14 activity in a single two week actvity period.

Assume that a user has made one post in activity period 1 and one post in activity period 2. Now the user has 2 posts and 2 activity.
Now, the user can make 40 posts in activity period 3 and earn 40 activity.

Fair enough.. thanks for the further clarification, even though your clarification does not really seem to contradict what I was saying or what I meant (or what I might have wished that I said but did not), even if I might not have described very thoroughly the ability to make up for past activity periods in which only 1 post (or fewer than 14 posts) was (were) made for various activity periods.

In this same light, for example, if after 26 activity periods (a whole year), a member were to post only 1 time per activity period, then he would have ONLY 26 activity points by the end of the year, and then that member could post 338-ish posts within a day or two (or within that same activity period), and then receive up to 364 (338 additional) activity points by making up for his past periods in which he ONLY had earned 1 activity point for each of the periods.
597  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2024, 01:49:17 AM
First time ever, 7 green months in a row.  Cool Happy Easter.


Green or red for April?

Looks like we are going to achieve the highest EVER weekly and, at the same time, monthly closing... and both even over the previous cycle peak (not closing) ATH.
Nice.
Things feel oddly bullish. It seems like more money is on the way to the market over the next couple of months as well. I feel too comfortable with a $70K BTC price. At the rate accumulation is going though, we should get through all the GBTC coins and mtgox distribution of BTC in about 5 months. It seems like a perfect storm is brewing for the end of the year.
When the FED cuts interest rates, then it will get very interesting....

It's already interesting.. so yeah.. even more interesting.. I hope we are going to be able to handle the level of ongoing interesting.

Partially OT:

Typically, I don't post about s-tcoins, but I want to address one interesting social phenomenon about them this cycle.
A memecoin obviously does not have a value, apart from being just that, a meme.
However, why we see such seemingly outrageous valuations for those: 31bil, 18bil, 4.6bil, 3.6 bil..and on and on.
I think that it represents something, but what is it?
Possibilities:
1. Rejection of traditional monetary values. Something like this: "you, boomers made my life difficult, so to spite you and reject what you think is valuable, I would invest in meme stocks (GME, AMC, etc) and meme coins".
2. Desire to organize into virtual "tribes": the tribe of dog#1, the tribe of dog#2, the tribe of a "dog wif hat" (for f sake!), frog, whatever.
Each tribe has a meme, then probably would have certain rituals, etc.
3. Complete and utter nihilism that translates into "laying flat" and meme coin chasing.

Honestly, this is not what I expected, but it seems where we are.
Certainly, memes have, for now*, the biggest momentum.
I am not buying any, but I am very curious about what it all means going forward.
I also think that it seems that memes distract from the major thesis of bitcoin as being a new form of money.
They are almost a caricature of that important idea.

Bewildered.
* I have a bag of dog#1 from long time ago at zero cost as I took lots of profit during the last super spike.

We have already frequently seen these various kinds of pumps of shitcoins, projects, ICOs, NFTs, stable coins, inscription/ordinals, and now meme coins.

Why do you feel some kind of need to ascribe more meaning to it?  Yeah, a lot of folks are frustrated with various systems and want to say fuck you to the man, and some of them might know about bitcoin and some of them might not.. so they are going to have fun staying poor if they cannot figure out ways to get in and out and maybe to put some of their profits (that is if they actually are able to get any profits) into something solid like bitcoin rather than riding any particular meme coin for too much and for too long.
598  Other / Meta / Re: Adjustments to Merit calculation on: April 01, 2024, 01:00:42 AM
with negative merits your position becomes a piece of shit



It might take a while to get down to that level..


We must post more and read less.

hahahahahaha
599  Other / Meta / Re: Adjustments to Merit calculation on: April 01, 2024, 12:55:20 AM
Like, do you mean if I see a post or question that needs a simple answer and the idea I have to answer that particular question tools me only 15 characters (which I know is not possible) for dropping a simple comment, that way my merit count will reduce? 
 
What about simple replies that have no character but come with only an image on them, which sends a clear message? How will that also be regarded? 
That’s correct. Theymos is clearly trying to ruin the forum. He probably has something against beginners ranking up, he doesn’t add merit sources and has come up with a new system to make it harder for accounts to rank up. Sad day for bitcointalk.

Leave it to theymos to ruin everything.  Right when we were starting to have fun, he ruins it.

 Angry Angry Angry

That's why we cannot have nice things... because of theymos.
600  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: April 01, 2024, 12:34:15 AM
Exactly.. Selling and expecting to buy back cheaper (to increase your BTC stash) contains a lot of uncertainties, and seems so easy in theory, but not as easy in practice.... so then one of the main logical solutions is not to sell any of your BTC unless you are expecting to not be able to buy it back.. so then that means that you either have enough or you have excess... it is difficult for a bitcoin newbie to get to a position of having enough or excess bitcoin, but if a bitcoin newbie reaches a status of having enough or too much BTC, then he has more options regarding how to treat his BTC holdings.

so that also means that if the goal of selling your BTC is to be able to get more BTC, then that makes less sense than just continuing to buy BTC.. so that if you conclude that you don't have enough, you just keep buying until you have enough or too much.

I understand what I am saying does not make sense to some people, especially those who really believe that there is some value to try to sell BTC in order to buy back more, and so they are free to employ such strategy, which has questionable odds of success.. especially if it ends up getting the guy out of the buying and accumulating mindset.. which truly is the most assured way to actually build a bitcoin stash to high amounts.
The uncertainty in this step is of course if they don't have the patience to wait, but if they are patient maybe they can buy it back at a cheap price.

You seem to be presuming too much.  If you sell on the way up, and the price does not end up coming back down, then it does not matter how patient you are.  We have had a lot of those kinds of examples in bitcoin's history and we are going to continue to have those kinds of examples in which people are selling and expecting to buy back cheaper... so do I need to list the many examples of that? 

Do you really believe that it is a good idea to sell some of your bitcoin when you don't have enough in the first place, and then just wait it out?  Sounds retarded to me, especially if you have not yet reached a status of over accumulation and especially with a paradigm-shifting asset like bitcoin that still seems to be in its earliest of adoption phases, and when the largest wealth redistribution known to mankind is in the midst of happening, why would you want to fuck around trying to trade that unless you have already assessed that you have enough or that you have too many?

You can do what you want if you are of the belief that patience is the solution to some diptwat who sold too much too soon.

But selling to be able to add BTC by accumulating at a low price is often not in accordance with our expectations.

It is a bad idea and a bad practice, but you are free to do what you like.  No one is stopping you, but if you try to argue that it is a good idea then you are first not even in the right thread for such topic, and you also are not likely engaging in good kinds of long term investment practices, especaily when it comes to BTC.

Meaning that after they sell, the price actually goes up and at the same time they cannot control it so they buy back at the highest price, which will harm them in paying trading costs. And also their targets were really not achieved.

Sometimes if guys sell too much too soon, and they get opportunties to buy back, they will need to figure out how to not get too greedy, and it is largely a losing game to try to accomplish the buy backs, and surely it is better to make sure that your fees and/or taxes are covered, and to me it seems that the one of the ONLY ways to really ensure success with these kinds of tactics is to be a professional trader(gambler) who knows how to make appropriate hedges of his bets, or the more realistically practical way is to make sure that you have enough or more than enough BTC when you sell any so that if you end up selling any, you have already figured out that you are not selling too much too soon, so you are not necessarily planning (or expecting) to be able to buy whatever you sold at cheaper prices.

So, for example, if your goal is to get to fuck you status.. and you consider fuck you status to be able to passively withdraw $6,666 per month on a sustainable basis, but you are torn about which metrics to use because if you use traditional measurements that include a withdrawal rate of 4% per year, then you would need to have 61 BTC to reach such status, but if you use some more advanced metrics that involve a BTC withdrawal  rate of 10% per year, then you would ONLY need 24.4 BTC.

So you may well be torn about whether fuck you have enough coins to reach fuck you status, especially if you might have a number of coins that falls somewhere towards the bottom of the range versus being at the top of the range which is more reassuring.  So in any of those cases in which you have somewhere between 24.4 BTC and 61 BTC or even higher quantities of BTC, you could reasonably conclude that you have enough BTC or you have more than enough BTC, and you therefore would be able to feel more free to start to sell some of your BTC and/or to fuck around with waiting for the possibility of buying back lower from whatever reasonable amounts that you end up selling because you are within a kind of range in which there are ways to calculate that you have enough or more than enough BTC.  And, if those valuations are made based on bottom prices (such as the 200-WMA) rather than current spot prices, then the calculations are going to be more accurate and/or reasonable than  a guy who might have 10 BTC and who is calculating that he has enough based on his on criteria, yet based on BTC spot prices.

A lot of guys make those valuation calculations based on spot prices and then they end up selling too many BTC too soon and then they also might end up pulling the fuck you lever too soon and they don't have enough BTC(or money) to really live off of their stash under their own stated criteria.. and it seems kind of dumb to me to conclude that you have some kind of an ability to live off your BTC stash but you are eating into the principle, and you don't yet have enough to buy a Lambo or whateve other premature excitement that you want to exercise.

I doubt that a guy who has those similar goals of wanting a sustainable $6,666 per month income, and ONLY has somewhere in the ballpark of 10 BTC has the luxury of concluding that he has enough coins or more than enough coins.  He needs to get into a proper range of over-accumulation of BTC before he might start to sell or shave off some of his coins..... and of course, each of us needs to to come to our own calculations regarding what our goals might be and figuring out that we have not sold too many coins too soon or concluded that we are richer than we are merely based on BTC spot price that we know to be quite outrageously volatile. .. and why should any of us want to spend a good amount of time to accumulate a decent BTC stash and then convert it into dollars because we want it to be more stable.. but then we no longer have a sufficient amount of bitcoin.. which is the place that our value should mostly stay.

For this reason, I am more interested in continuing to hold and accumulate bitcoin at low prices with reserve funds, therefore reserve funds are really needed to take advantage of the opportunity to buy on the decline.

This part sounds right, but your overall response seems to be flip-flopping.

Selling is certainly not a good principle for someone if they are planning an investment in the long term but they change their mind by selling and buying again which can turn things into quite a mess.

This part is correct too.  Maybe I just misunderstood what you were saying earlier?
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