El análisis de chessnut en la gráfica diaria está en consonancia con el análisis de DanV: la "expanding diagonal" descendente desde Junio de 2014 (9 meses ya), que se ve incompleta en la gráfica con precios lineales.

De hecho, esa diagonal expansiva en gráfica lineal sólo podría completarse, a día de hoy, con precios negativos!!

Pero mirando la gráfica logarítmica, el 152'40 completa perfectamente esa diagonal expansiva de 9 meses.

Así que, en mi cuenta principal, si no estamos en una corrección más compleja (tipo WXY), el mínimo de 152'40 ha sido el final (la "C") de la corrección desde Diciembre de 2013.

Una de mis cuentas alternativas tiene en cuenta la posibilidad de que la corrección fuese más compleja (tipo WXY) y significaría que habríamos recorrido sólo la mitad del mercado bajista, con precios que podrían llevarnos tranquilamente por debajo de 100 durante bastante tiempo.

Pero a dia de hoy, la cuenta principal apunta al 152'4 como mínimo y, por tanto, manda estar largo.

Hola escalicha. En primer lugar gracias por postear tus análisis. Para los que sabemos poco de Elliot estos gráficos nos permiten ir aprendiendo algo. También te vuelvo a hacer la pregunta que ha quedado pendiente: si ves posible una corrección hasta 240-250 antes de continuar el descenso como, por ejemplo, hace este análisis de chessnut,  del foro en inglés:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=812637.msg10375999#msg10375999 (...)

+1, una buena forma de agradecer a los que aportan su trabajo y conocimientos gratis.



Predicando, a ver si se contagia, https://blockchain.info/address/17rK45ePppfWShzszmQSz4mWhK8qh3ag6V 

No puedo leer el artículo completo (...)

esto podria ser el revulsivo que necesita para poder cambiar el gran ciclo bajista por uno nuevo alcista, pues segun mi anterior conteo estabamos en una onda b de un ciclo bajista desde nov13 y la quinta coincidia con el crash, por lo que ahora estabamos en una correctiva de un ciclo bajista, pero estas noticias, podrian significarque estamos en una onda 1 de ciclo alcista, que normalmente suele pasar inadvertida.
LA VERDAD QUE A VISTA RAPIDA parece encajar y ser el revulsivo del mercado para cortar las posiciones cortas que ultimamente estaban copando el mercado

First U.S. Bitcoin Exchange Set to Open

By
Greg Bensinger
Jan. 25, 2015 4:34 p.m. ET
The virtual currency bitcoin is getting a very real boost on Monday, with the opening of the first licensed U.S. exchange.

Coinbase Inc., a startup backed by $106 million from the New York Stock Exchange, banks and venture-capital firms, said its exchange will offer greater security for individuals and institutions to trade bitcoin and monitor real-time pricing of the cryptocurrency.

The exchange could bring needed legitimacy to the currency, which isn’t backed by a central government and is traded over virtual exchanges, primarily overseas. Coinbase said it has insurance, offering traders some assurance that their money won’t disappear.

Bitcoin enthusiasts have been buffeted by the collapse of Japan-based exchange Mt. Gox last year—taking with it around half a billion dollars of investors’ money—and a security breach earlier this month at Slovenia-based exchange Bitstamp. The value of a bitcoin itself, determined by trading on existing exchanges, has fallen to about $240, from a peak in late 2013 of more than $1,200.

“To have an organized exchange that has the backing of thoughtful venture capitalists and investors addresses one of the main problems with bitcoin: its extreme volatility,” said Campbell R. Harvey, a Duke University finance professor who has studied cryptocurrencies. “Bitcoin has been sorely in need of something like this.”

Coinbase’s founders say they have been working for five months to win licenses from state financial regulators. They have regulatory approval in half of U.S. states, including large population centers like New York and California. For now, Coinbase can do business with account holders only in states where it has approval.

Coinbase will take a small percentage—likely less than 1%—of most transactions, said Fred Ehrsam, 26 years old, a co-founder. The exchange will initially be limited to users in the U.S., but Chief Executive Brian Armstrong, 32, said he plans to expand overseas.

Mr. Armstrong said he expected to attract both individuals and businesses looking to trade bitcoin. “Our goal is to become the world’s largest exchange,” he said.

Others are looking to open U.S.-based bitcoin exchanges, including Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, the twin brothers known for their early feuds with Facebook Inc. founder Mark Zuckerberg .

Financial regulators, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, have been scrutinizing bitcoin recently. Benjamin Lawsky , the superintendent of the New York State Department of Financial Services, is working on a so-called BitLicense for firms looking to offer digital-currency services in the state; Coinbase is operating under earlier regulations. Mr. Lawsky’s plan is seen as a template for legislation in other jurisdictions, and it may give outsiders more confidence in the currency.

Bitcoins are created using high-powered computers that “mine” for the currency by solving complex mathematical equations. They are exchanged digitally either for currency, or goods and services. Ownership and transactions are recorded, anonymously, in a so-called blockchain, which backers say reduces the risk of fraud.

Bitcoin grew to prominence in recent years in part because of the ease with which it can be transferred.

Coindesk, which tracks the price of bitcoins, says 82,000 businesses accept the currency, double that of a year earlier, including e-commerce site Overstock.com Inc. and Expedia Inc., as well as many small retailers. The value of all bitcoin is $3.2 billion, according to Coindesk’s price index.

The NYSE invested in Coinbase during a $75 million round of fundraising that closed this month. Other investors include USAA Bank, the venture arm of Spain’s Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, former Citigroup Inc. CEO Vikram Pandit and former Thomson Reuters Corp. CEO Tom Glocer. Venture backers include Draper Fisher Jurvetson, Andreessen Horowitz and Union Square Ventures.

The NYSE’s investment was intended in part to “keep an eye on bitcoin as it matures as a legitimate currency,” President Tom Farley said. “Any currency relies on its acceptance.” The Coinbase exchange “is an important step for the currency to become socially acceptable.”

El nivel de la 4ª podrían ser 45, 65 ó 85, según se haga el cuenteo.
Mi opinión es que la mas probable es 65.

Que lleguemos allí está por ver, porque podríamos mantener los 100 perfectamente. Ya veremos.

De lo que estoy muy seguro Lo más probable (con una probabilidad mayor que el 50%, a mi juicio, y con mucha mayor probabilidad que cualquier otro escenario a día de hoy) es que en 2015 veremos el suelo de la C, y de que no tendremos máximos históricos hasta 2016 (ó 2017)

Creo que te equivocaste de hilo, sólo los chamanes podrían estar "seguros" de algo.

Te lo comenté hace unos días, la posibilidad de irnos a una 4ª anterior, sin embargo, para los entendidos de Elliot:

¿cual es el nivel de la 4ª?

hemos hecho mínimo en 152$, y la supuesta 4ª tuvo resistencia en 130$ durante 5 meses. ¿se considera alcanzada la 4ª sin ni siquiera tocar esa antigua resistencia, ahora importante soporte?

Y a todo esto chicos , a donde nos vamos hacia abajo o nos vamos lentamemte para arriba sin casi nadie apenas lo noten , o es una extrategia de la ballena para incluir a la mayor parte de cortos posibles para quitarselos de encima de un plumazo, agradeceria alguna orientacion por parte de los expertos.

gracias

yes.

also, the pump to 1200 started just after the silk road bust, I know because I bought a lot of those coins.

he pumped the price to 1200, dumped all the missing coins from silk road and cashed out. he took all the money that users were depositing to their accounts. he didnt steal anything, because most were forced to convert their money to bitcoin in order to withdraw anything.

the end is scary> bitcoins are worthless and will be returned to their owners, karpeles keeps the money as a free man.  

Va a ser brutalmente brutal, to da moon.

 

sounds like you are emotionally invested in not allowing the bitcoin fire of freedom to take hold and become a real currency through organic network effects ... bit late to the party for that.

(...)If I believed in my rights, I could have the hospitalization order re-examined, since the law requires me to be "dangerous to myself or others" for such procedure to take effect. Everyone knows that I have never hit another person, nor had a thought or word of hurting myself for over a decade. The only thing I am dangerous against, is the banking cartel. But I already know from experience that the judicial system is capable of straight-faced delivery of any verdict. So raising these matters in court does not help. Raising them here makes fools cry out: "look the guy's just come out from a nuthouse", but it's not the fools for whom I write, it is the wise - the people who understand things, and are here for learning, and contributing themselves. (...)

The chances that a bottom is above 200$ are slim to none in my opinion.

Still no interest at all at these prices, and not enough panic. I would say 180$ is pretty much a given target, and most likely all the way to ~100$

Demasiados largos abiertos hoy en bitfinex. En mi opinion, se van a pillar los dedos.

http://bfxdata.com/sentiment/longshort.php

Cada vez veo más clara la jugada, que va a ser tirar a los largos y acumular sus monedas.

Han bajado hasta la "directriz alcista irrompible" para que aun abrieran mas largos (ayer ya comentaba que en algunos espacios temporales se estaban abriendo el 99% de posiciones en largo), y ahora estan asestando un golpe psicologico durísimo para sembrar el pánico y forzar la liquidación de los que entraron largos.

Esto ya no son osos, son toros de los grandes con ganas de acumular monedas.