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201  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: June 13, 2014, 02:20:29 PM
What's your take on the 51% situation with GHash.io. Do you think it will harm us?

No.

Nothing will harm Bitcoin. The short term events may provide better entry prices (like the auction). I just can't make myself worried about the 51%.

It doesn't worry you that one of the core developers just sold half his bitcoin stake because of this issue? 
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/281ftd/why_i_just_sold_50_of_my_bitcoins_ghashio/

It worries me.  I can't quite see what exactly he expects to happen.  Unless GHash.io is run by someone who only cares about destroying bitcoin, it seems very unlikely that they will attack it.  Still, just the fact that they can, means they control the fate of bitcoin, which is extremely bad, to say the least.

I'm not selling yet, but I am convinced that bitcoin's POW scheme is just fundamentally flawed and that ultimately it will not survive.  Bitcoin itself may carry on with a better scheme though.


Ghash.io 51% mining control could only be useful for double spending. That's all.
So don't sell your BTCs because of this FUD.
202  Local / Trading y especulación / Re: Boletín de Análisis Técnico on: June 12, 2014, 11:06:44 PM
El punto de invalidación de una cuenta alcista es $549. En la gráfica marco con una línea verde este punto. Si el precio bajase de esa línea, la cuenta más válida sería que esta subida fue una onda (B) de una corrección mucho mayor, de la que ahora estaríamos comenzando una onda (C) que nos debe llevar a los niveles entre $266 y $100 (y quizás más abajo si es verdadera mente destructiva).

Una buena entrada sería entre los $600 y $560 con STOP en los $549.




Por ahora lo has clavado. 550 y rebote.

Curiosamente, además, ese 550 es aprox. el fibo 0'5 de 447-->683 de finales de Mayo.


De todas formas, veo el 510 como nivel que invalidaría la onda alcista.
203  Local / Trading y especulación / Re: Boletin de analisis fundamental on: June 10, 2014, 05:47:12 AM

Después de que los exchanges Chinos cierren volveremos a la misma situación de hace meses, los únicos exchanges grandes para comprar son Bitstamp y Btc-e. El problema es que aunque han funcionado bien hasta ahora, tampoco son exchanges profesionales.

- Bitstamp: Tiene todo el dinero de sus usuarios en una sola cuenta bancaria. Esto incumple las leyes y es muy peligroso, ya que si por ejemplo hubiera un problema con un cliente que está haciendo algo ilegal y hubiera que proceder a bloquear el dinero... se haría con todo el dinero de los clientes.
La forma en la que un exchange debería operar es con una cuenta de banco a nombre de cada cliente con sus fondos, sobre la que ellos tienen control.

- BTC-e: Aquí no hay mucho que decir, no se sabe ni quién está detrás del exchange..


Como bien dices la situación actual de los exchanges es esencialmente la misma que antes, y conlleva iliquidez (tanto de bitcoins como de fiat) por la incertidumbre que genera confiarles grandes cantidades dinero.

Precisamente por ello, yo no descartaría una superburbuja estilo 2011 con su correspondiente pinchazo.

Por ejemplo, un anuncio de eBay de que acepta bitcoins como medio de pago en Paypal podría provocar que, con muy pocos bitcoins a la venta en los exchanges, el precio escalara todamoon. Y luego, una larga corrección.

La consolidación vendría después de esa superburbuja.

Lo que está claro es que serán necesarios medios de cambiar fiat por bitcoins mucho más sencillos y seguros.
204  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Introducing The QuickCoin Social Wallet on: May 28, 2014, 10:26:36 AM
I registered to this one, decided to give it a go without hesitation.

I did not read the TOS, the registration was over in a few seconds.

Immediately loaded my account with 500,000 bits. It appeared in about 5 minutes and I started using it.

Sent 10k and 5k to my friends without asking their approval. One without public note, and the other with a wall post.

Fee is a very reasonable 100 bits (0.1mBTC = standard network fee) regardless of the amount.

There is no transaction history, which is a big minus.

I am interested what happens if the recipients reject the transaction.

I don't yet know anything about the technology.

TL;DR: WOW - this app alone is boosting Bitcoin price by $100+ in the remainder of 2014  Shocked

I have now sent to about 15 friends. One of my friends does not show up in the friends list and the "search" also does not find him. What's funny, he can send to me without problems.

Some of the transfers are experiencing delays.

Transaction history is still the most needed feature.


Have you tried making a withdrawal as well to see how that works out? And fees?


Good question!

I have not found how to withdrawal bitcoins...


Edit: just paste the bitcoin address. It's so easy that I had not figured out how to withdrawal.

Edit 2: fees are 100 "bits" (0.0001 BTC) for each movement (fund or payment or withdrawal)
205  Economy / Economics / Re: (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan on: May 27, 2014, 10:16:08 PM
I quote these two Risto's posts because they deserve to be remembered it in this thread:



For most people, holding 100% of the initial amount is not a wise choice. It is good to diversify by selling into strength to account for the possibility of a black swan event in Bitcoin technology. This way you steadily accumulate also non-BTC assets, and can learn how to handle wealth. You sleep better and don't see dips in price as an opportunity to panic, but rather an opportunity to buy back if you really feel like so. The selling plan must be based on percentages, which means that no matter how high bitcoin goes, you still have more value in your remaining BTC.

If you have BTC1,000 and you absolutely want to have the same number when it hits $million, then it is best to just bury the paper wallet into ground and wake up when you are a billionaire. Trading only makes you lose the most of it over time with no gain. But it is not healthy for anyone to suddenly become a billionaire.

If instead, you flex your Excel muscle and devise a plan to sell BTC900 in decreasing increments at exponentially rising price points, you will already be rich and well-established when bitcoin hits $1 million, and totally content with the idea that your remaining stash is still worth a cool $100M.




I was quoting prices is dollars for convenience, because this is a large forum where most readers do not use bitcoin as their accounting unit.

Wealth is the same, regardless whether it is measured in bitcoins or dollars, because (in any point of time), bitcoin is a fixed multiple of dollar.

I do advocate using dollar as your accounting unit, since its value (purchasing power) is relatively constant, whereas Bitcoin's purchasing power increases tenfold every year. It is just handy.

But I also encourage to carefully consider that every one of your bitcoins is increasingly likely to reach $1 million in value quite soon. It should be treated as an inheritance, not to be wasted away. Every bitcoin you give away must give you more value than an extra $ one million would have given you in a few years of time. This is accomplished by selling only so little that the remaining amount is worth more (more dollars, houses, or gold) than the whole stash was in the previous stage.

How you allocate the non-bitcoin part of your portfolio is up to you. I do not advocate holding dollars as any % of it, unless you do arbitrage or something. The value converted from bitcoin should be used to buy silver, gold, castles with apple gardens, businesses, etc.

If you are a world dominator, then it makes sense to acquire as many bitcoins as possible and not care about the above. But who wants in that kind of game anyway...

206  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 26, 2014, 11:04:05 AM
Big spike in Huobi 1d chart.





Also in the Huobi 1m chart:

207  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: May 25, 2014, 06:17:42 PM

I'm only going to address point 10 because it kind of makes everything else redundant.

Anyone that still believes bitcoin was invented by innocent minds, for the good of the people needs to check the whole of history to see whether there is any prior evidence of powerful people trying to stack the game in their favour. I'm sure you won;t have to look hard Wink

Now I'm not saying categorically that it isn't, I'm saying the odds are against it. So if BTC is masterminded by the (govt/rothschild/illuminati/some other rich guys) then we can assume the price increase is equally as orchestrated. The copycat coins can copy so far, but ultimately only BTC has the backing to push it over the top. The others will always remain small players. The people who invented bitcoin invented it the way the did for a reason, what you describe as weaknesses are design features. There isn't the slightest chance 'they' are going to let a competitor that doesn't have these desirable features supercede bitcoin.

I'm not one of the guys in charge, so my optimal strategy is play the odds as best I can, and hedge black swans. My investment in BTC is already hedging the black swan. I haven't bet the farm, if BTC fails I'm largely whole and ready to play the work hard(ish), enjoy life, retire comfortable game. If BTC succeeds the retirement is just a bit sooner and a bit lusher.

Hedging the black swan that $[altcoin X of N] is the one true god feels more like a lottery. Like buying a basket of penny shares and hoping one hits big. I'm not saying don't do it (I got a few, a surprisingly high 20% of my total crypto when i figured it out - might need to adjust that!) unlikely any of them will (be allowed to) usurp bitcoin imho.



That's where all hints are pointing to!
+1
208  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: May 25, 2014, 08:45:07 AM
MRO is shining because it has a value proposition (privacy), it has a community, and the coin is still 95% not mined and mineable by anyone (non GPU/ASIC). The competitor, DRK, is centralized, has half of the current supply instamined, and it a lot more expensive. This was an easy choice really.

I don't know XCP that's why haven't mentioned it. It is 100% premine so why should I care?
With a P2P exchange it would be useful to exchange BTC<>MRO as a method of making BTC anonymous. Even if MRO isn't used as a currency it could be valuable as a tool for BTC. Almost like an optional add-on.



Some long term Bitcoin weaknesses are:
- centralized mining (in only few pools),
- lack of fungibility (due to lack of privacy), and
- security hole in the elliptic curve (not in the hash algorithm).


CPU mining (GPU and ASICs resistant) is key to true decentralization. Any of you mining MRO can confirm that MRO is GPU resistant?

Cryptonote's MRO seems a good solution to bitcoin's lack of fungibility, and it's a feature that Bitcoin can hardly adopt. But it's not enough for an altcoin to succeed because, as dillpiklechips says, it could be useful simply to "wash" bitcoins.

Concerning the elliptic curve algorithm in MRO, I have not found any info.



MRO has 8x folded in just few days, and that's enough for me to stay apart.

Risto, what was your MRO purchase price?






209  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: May 18, 2014, 10:37:59 AM
Could the next rally be fuelled by people buying BTC instantly using their credit & debit cards, and not even knowing what a bitcoin really is, using services like Circle http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kgzu-QwzW3M?

Fasten your seatbelts...
210  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: May 09, 2014, 12:52:06 AM
(...)
The candle is locally-longest if it is longer than 3 candles in both sides. The locally-longest candle dominates the said candles in either side of it and they don't count no matter the color.
(...)


Interesting strategy, Risto.
But I have one doubt:

You can't know the 3 candles in the future.
So you have to wait 3 periods to determine wether a candle is locally dominant.

Have you simulated what's the rentability of your strategy if you place the buy/sell order 3 periods later than the locally dominant candle?
211  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: May 07, 2014, 02:55:58 PM
The 6 months resistance directive is acting now as support directive in the 1d Bitstamp linear chart:

212  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: April 18, 2014, 02:37:13 PM
Here is my bet for 17th may 2014:

3001-1000000: 0.1%
2801-3000: 3.9%
1401-2800; 45.0%
451-1400: 15.0%
350-450: 30.0%
251-350: 5.0%
0-250: 1.0%
213  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: April 17, 2014, 03:58:11 PM
(...)
3) Furthermore, I find you choice of base 10 unnatural (base e is the natural choice!;)

That would be rally interesting!
214  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: April 17, 2014, 08:51:48 AM
Here is the full fractal (1d bars):



Although I think that the probability of this fractal is quite small (but growing every day), it's interesting to visualize the speed of 2011 superbubble in today's prices:

- over 700 by end of April, clearly breaking de 2014 downtrend (10-15 days from now)
- ATH by mid May 2014 (1 month from now)
- around 10,000 by mid June 2014 (2 months from now)
- around 50,000 by mid July 2014 (3 months from now) 100x in just 3 months from now!!!
- around 120,000 by mid Sept 2014 (5 months from now)
- around 5,000 by Oct 2015 (1 year of heavy correction)

If we are over 700 by end of month...
215  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: April 17, 2014, 07:29:16 AM
I have updated the fractal (Mtgox 2010-2011 vs Bitstamp 2013-2014 superbubbles shape comparison chart) on 1d bars.

Strechting timescale to fit 0.50-1.10 vs 259-1163 maximums
and strechting pricescale to fit shapes,

the shape and timeframe of maxs and mins comparison is amazing:

216  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: April 11, 2014, 10:21:29 PM
There is this thing called "escrow" where bitcoins are typically sent first to a "trusted 3rd party", and once fiat is moved, the bitcoins are released. That is a hassle, I am working hard to replace it with a guarantee system, which would make cheating unprofitable.

Interesting concept, would like to hear more, as I am having this kind of issues on receiving USD (via cashiers checks) for property located elsewhere, would be fantastic if a system like this existed in BTC

More about it.

Coinffeine is developing something like that.
http://www.coinffeine.com/
217  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: April 10, 2014, 05:03:06 PM
2278 BTC pumped to break the 400 wall:



This is not everybody panicking.
218  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: April 03, 2014, 09:06:20 PM
i think millionnaires are buying bitcoin. they just do so by other channels than public exchanges and/or if they deal with the latest, they probably paid someone to sneak in at a greater profit, which could then explain such volatility: with weak hands actually selling their coins to huge whales/funds/banks/greedymillionaires without noticing it.

A few are buying without a doubt and probably doing so off exchanges. It's just that those few are probably a drop in the ocean..


Megariches (the elite) won't need to buy if they were the first miners (Satoshi Inc.). If they own all those generated and unspent bitcoins, they would be the only who have the annonimity that bitcoin does not offer to not miners.
219  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: April 03, 2014, 01:08:31 PM
I would say it is a 50/50 coin flip, but if you win, you get 10 times return, if you lose, you just lose what you had. Invest accordingly.

+1
220  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: April 03, 2014, 12:40:41 PM

Bitcoin was carefully designed for this outcome by some very astute strategists. Appears to be the work of a black budget think tank.

Note my prior post I provided a link to Catherine Austin Fitts audio interview wherein she describes the $4 trillion black budget of the USA. It is incredulous but true. Secretary of Defense Rumsfield confirmed $2.3 trillion of it the day before 9/11 and then all the records were destroyed by the missleairplane that hit the Pentagon the next day. Armstrong has also written about this and has inside knowledge. Just last week, a smoking gun book was published by Jim Rickards (former covert agent) who was in the room with the government and also corroborated by Max Keiser's first hand conversions with Cantor Fitzgerald admitting that government was aware of the short options on two airlines before 9/11.


All I've heard is naive theory of a lone man doing this, covering all his tracks like a covert agent yet not being one. A brilliant lone cryptography researcher whom no one ever heard of, never published anything before, who managed to obfuscate his activity from all his family and friends.
And "he" (Satoshi Inc) predicted all the ill effects and was promoting them, e.g. he expected ASICs and corporations to take control of mining.


Very interesting statements.

If the elite is behind bitcoin, don't you think that the chances of succes folds hundreds of times?
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