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601  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why hasn't any altcoin replaced bitcoin? on: October 02, 2019, 06:17:46 PM
Part of it is that developers of the alts relentlessly dump the coins at the first opportunity and people figure, if the developers are selling this coin has no long term future.

For example Charles Lee sold all of his litcoin at the peak back in 2017. As a result alts never gain traction because their own developers arn't really in it for the long term.
602  Economy / Economics / Re: How Will The Upcoming Recession Affect Bitcoin? on: October 02, 2019, 05:15:27 PM
Bitcoin has been through a recession, that is the part people are mistaking. What you see as "recession" is probably just american recession, if USA has one then all world should have it and you have a point a bit, when back in 2008 USA had it, many countries almost collapsed in economical sense, when they had it in 1987 same happened.

So yeah you are right that USA recession means global recession, however this doesn't mean there hasn't been recession all around the world in the past 2-3 years, look at the world global economy in the past 2-3 years and tell me you are not seeing some bad things going on all around the world, not just known ones like Venezuela or Zimbabwe but a lot bigger G20 countries having economical problems. Bitcoin wasn't phased by it and it still continues to do whatever it always does, go up and down like crazy.

I'm not sure I agree with you. Bitcoin has been through several bear markets, but that is a separate thing from a recession (which means economic activity contracts).

The only recession the world has seen in the last 10 years has been the eurozone crisis of 2011-2013. Bitcoin did well during that period - it was reaction to the Cyprus crisis that helped bitcoin become mainstream.
603  Economy / Economics / Re: Hong kong and China war can lead to possible Bitcoin popularity on: October 02, 2019, 03:47:25 PM
Bitcoin is already popular in Hongkong or in China, they are just forbidden to use it before since China is known really in opposing cryptocurrency, due to this war only they decide to have their own cryptocurrency similar to Libra. Since they see how it process and they knew they can have transactions without being traced by any. Hope their war will end soon, it will not benefit their country and their people, they both have same raise so they should learn to understand each others point.

I don't think that the Chinese are forbidden to use Bitcoin. As far as I know, there are a number of cryptocurrency exchanges operating there. However, it is forbidden to exchange fiat to crypto. In China, they can only trade between various cryptocurrencies, and not between crypto and fiat. Earlier there were reports that the authorities were considering a ban on Bitcoin mining (more than 80% of the Bitcoin mining hashpower originates from China). But those plans were recently dropped. And even now, many of the largest Bitcoin mining farms in the world are located in China.

The Chinese closed down all their cryptocurrency exchanges in 2017. However there is still a lot of person to person trading that happens in secret in cafes and bars and so on.

Until Xi Jingping came to power the Chinese were quite content, but I think he has frightened them a bit and they're slowly but surely moving their money abroad.
604  Economy / Economics / Re: Trade war Influences on cryptocurrency on: October 02, 2019, 02:05:05 PM


But in what way bitcoin will be affected by an economic crisis? That is what I would like to know, it could be possible that bitcoin will be affected negatively since people will want to get their money out of volatile investments however it is also possible that the value of bitcoin could go up as people lose confidence in fiat currencies.

The only way bitcoin will benefit from an economic crisis will be if that crisis happens in Europe. The europeans have passed bail-in rules where if a bank is in trouble they can seize your savings. This is unique in the world, nowhere else allows the seizing of savings like this.

The Cyprus crisis in 2013 when they first tried this, is what brought Bitcoin to global attention as a means of protecting your money. If the bail-ins happen again, I expect demand for crypto will soar.
605  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Cryptocurrency threatens governments on: October 02, 2019, 12:29:56 PM
The European Union is terrified of Libra (Facebook's proposed cryptocurrency). They've opened a pre-emptive investigation:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/vestager-says-libra-s-potential-to-spawn-an-economy-raises-risks

Quote
The European Union’s antitrust chief says she’s taken the unusual step of scrutinizing Facebook Inc.’s planned cryptocurrency because of the risk that Libra will lead to the creation of a new, entirely separate economy.

“It’s a new thing that we’ve begun to ask questions about something that doesn’t yet exist,” Margrethe Vestager said in an interview with Denmark’s finance industry union, Finansforbundet. “But it’s because we want to be far enough ahead that we can say whether this will be a problem.”

Whatever we think of Facebook and Libra, we should all be afraid of this because they'll use their conclusions to go after cryptocurrency in general.
606  Economy / Economics / Re: Venezuela's central bank is holding Cryptocurrency! on: October 02, 2019, 12:10:22 PM


I know there are some sanctions but I'm quite surprised they are not able to receive dollars for the oil sold, this is really a serious restriction if no bank is willing to clear a payment to them.   I didnt think the system was so tight as to prevent that, obviously they have the problem of dealing in millions and billions as its a great deal of oil but still amazing if they can find no alternative.
  

The system is amazingly tight. You either deal with the major American banks or you deal with the Swift network based in Belgium that is always careful to comply with American regulations because they don't want their network blocked from accessing the US or American banks. America runs the world with it's banking control, not it's gunboats.

I guess people could get round it by using yuan or roubles - but those currencies are unstable and keep weakening, so it's actually safer to use something like bitcoin or ethereum.
607  Economy / Economics / Re: Venezuela's central bank is holding Cryptocurrency! on: October 02, 2019, 11:25:07 AM
The story is more complicated than "Venezuelan central bank holds cryptocurrency".

It turns out that the state owned oil company wants to send bitcoin and ethereum to the central bank because it can't get hold of dollars:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-26/venezuela-has-bitcoin-stash-and-doesn-t-know-what-to-do-with-it

Quote
Venezuela’s central bank is running internal tests to determine whether it can hold cryptocurrencies in its coffers, according to four people with direct knowledge of the matter.

The efforts come at the behest of state-run Petroleos de Venezuela SA, which is seeking to send Bitcoin and Ethereum to the central bank and have the monetary authority pay the oil company’s suppliers with the tokens, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing internal deliberations. Staffers are also studying proposals that would allow cryptocurrencies to be counted toward international reserves, now near a three-decade low at $7.9 billion.

...It isn’t clear how PDVSA came to own Bitcoin and Ethereum, or the value of its holdings. But the oil producer has struggled to get paid by customers via conventional channels because major banks are hesitant to do business with a sanctioned entity.

PDVSA may be hesitant to sell its cryptocurrencies on the open market because it would require the company to register with an exchange and subject itself to due diligence. Instead, it wants the central bank, which officials at the oil company believe is less exposed to potential blocks, to use the crypto to pay entities PDVSA owes money to.
608  Economy / Economics / Re: How negative interest rates affect Bitcoin on: October 02, 2019, 11:10:14 AM
Negative interest rates are temporary for this reason: the banking system can't make a profit if the entire yield curve is negative.

Did you see what happened to Japanese bonds yesterday? Kuroda (the governor of the Bank of Japan) decided that the central bank would not buy any more government bonds with a term greater than 25 years (to reduce demand and thus increase yields). He is trying to steepen the yield curve. The 10 year Japanese bond auction went really badly and yields shot up along the curve and then this spread to Europe.

I think this is a harbinger to come: central banks are finally realising that they are causing more harm than good in buying bonds. If they abstain from buying, yields will go positive.
609  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Halving Countdown and Other Data on: September 09, 2019, 12:27:30 AM


There won't be any instant price jump after halving, like some people imagine, because halving is a well-known and predictable event, it has been priced in already. Markets are not some mindless mechanisms that instantly react to change, it's just manifestation of thousands of real human choices, and humans plan ahead. The last time I've witnessed a halvening, the market started growing months before it happened, and then continued to do so for many more months. I'm not going to say that it will be exactly the same, but we need to think about effects of halvening over long periods of time rather than just one time.

Also - if there isn't a price jump, some of the miners will come under considerable stress as their income drops. It remains to be see whether the halvening helps bitcoin or this time is it's nemesis.
610  Economy / Economics / Re: Binance Swirled into ‘KYC Leak’ Turmoil, Binance not Safu Anymore on: August 09, 2019, 08:55:35 PM
How can you say Binance is not safe anymore where it's not proven that those data are stolen from Binance?

Their story of phishing is reasonable to believe, but of course, it needs proper investigation, likely from a 3rd party to find out which is really happening with those leaks. If there's no one except Binance who investigate their own case, it's possible that every finding won't be revealed 100%. No doubt about it.

If people can hack wallets, they usually hack other stuff while they are at it.

As soon as the original hack occured, people should have changed all their passwords and stuff.

Poorly run exchanges are the weakest aspect of the crypto space.
611  Economy / Economics / Re: The Central Bank of Facebook on: July 11, 2019, 01:39:46 PM
What exactly is the use-value of Libra supposed to be anyway?? Just a "borderless" currency?

They want to replace western union and VISA fees.

In other words, the exact same use-value as bitcoin, but Zukerberg reckons he can do it better. And there is his rivalry with the Winklevoss twins in the mix there too.
612  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin is following the same path of 2017 on: June 16, 2019, 03:15:24 AM
At the moment of posting this was maybe true but at the moment i dont believe we are going to have such massive bull run.
there are several reasons behind it, first, is that at least partly , the bull run was supported by USDT manipulation.
Second, the upwards movement has been very fast in the past months and in my opinion in order to get another healthy and relatively  stable bulll run " step" we need to at least stabilize or have an correction.

We won't have a massive bull run. At the same time, a) the halvening that occurs next year is already having an effect and b) bitcoin is digital gold, so when the stock market falls, bitcoin does well.
613  Economy / Economics / Re: Why can't we have a good cryptocurrency exchange? on: May 23, 2019, 01:23:32 PM

We have lots of very good decentralized exchange out there, but I really don’t know why people pay little or no attention to decentralized exchanges which really depict what the cryptocurrency created by satoshi stands for, rather, people prefer to use centralized exchanges which are why most coins you see on decentralized exchanges are just shitcoins.

I hope that a time will come where we all move from a centralized exchange to a decentralized one. The only centralized exchange that I really see as a good one is Binance and I learnt that they are already working on their decentralized exchange.

The decentralised exchanges don't advertise themselves - so not many people know they exit, and a consequence of that is that the liquidity is very poor. It needs an angel/whale to trade trading on one to bump up liquidity, in order to attract other traders.
614  Economy / Economics / Re: Will people come back to gold on: May 10, 2019, 05:03:10 PM
Gold is always regarded as a low-return asset. Therefore, the investors will become interested in gold only when the other assets losses their preference. Now the problem is that the markets are doing pretty well currently. The last time we had a recession, was way back in 2008-09. Unless there is some event like a recession, people will continue to overlook gold.

Markets are tanking at the moment due to trade war fears. But gold hasn't moved yet - perhaps it will in the next few weeks if investors start to get really scared.
615  Economy / Economics / Re: Deflation based currency such as Bitcoin to counter promote economy. on: May 10, 2019, 01:10:10 PM
Isn't Bitcoin being mined everyday? I thought this was some kind of controlled inflation. We believe that no one's will change the cap limit. But it is still possible that a government fork Bitcoin and change this limit.

It is. The supply is still increasing and it won't turn deflationary till the next century, by which time we'll all be dead!
616  Economy / Economics / Re: Regulation of Cryptocurrency Around the World on: May 09, 2019, 02:11:47 PM
Cryptocurrencies are illegal in mostly poor authoritarian countries(Saudi Arabia isn't poor,but it's definitely authoritarian).We don't need the support of such countries(maybe except China) and let's hope that no country form the green area will move to the red area. Grin

Saudi has banned it because their whole economy is based on the petrodollar. Their thinking is probably, "crypto undermines the dollar which undermines the petrodollar which would be bad for saudi".
617  Economy / Economics / Re: Crypto as a payment method for goods: what to expect in 2019 on: May 08, 2019, 09:31:17 PM
A serious and practically unsolvable obstacle for business structures is the high price volatility of cryptocurrency. I know that many who first accepted cryptocurrency as a means of payment, then refused to use it for this reason

This obstacle is not as unsolvable as it seems

In fact, it is solved pretty easily if you are a cryptopayments processing provider (e.g. BitPay or CoinGate). As they aggregate cryptopayments from and to a lot of clients (e.g. online shops), they can hedge them in bulk, so to speak, and thus make themselves invulnerable and not susceptible to volatility (just in case, simple cryptocurrency users can do essentially the same). Other than that, I'm not sure if those companies which accepted crypto refused to accept for this reason exactly. It looks more like there was not many customers willing to pay with crypto in the first place

The delays in processing last December (where some transactions took about a week to get just one confirmation) scared away lots of retailers. On the other side of the equation, people don't like spending crypto, they hoard it.
618  Economy / Economics / Re: How does exchanges work? on: May 08, 2019, 01:02:54 PM
Binance are centralised exchange, I believe their source code is not anywhere on the public repository, of course profits are from fees and coin listing but both are based on a strong cryptocurrency trading engine, you can catch a glimpse on how these engine works by checking out DEX

Binance is also subject to a lot of risk. They've got hacked again:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-08/crypto-exchange-giant-binance-reports-a-hack-of-7-000-bitcoin

Quote
Binance, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, said hackers withdrew 7,000 Bitcoins worth about $40 million via a single transaction in a “large scale security breach,” the latest in a long line of thefts in the digital currency space.

The hackers used a “variety of techniques” including phishing and viruses to obtain a large amount of user data, Binance said in a post on its website. There may be additional accounts that have been affected but not yet identified, Binance said. The largest digital tokens including Bitcoin slid about 3 percent after the disclosure, then recovered most of the drop.

This is the biggest problem with centralised exchanges - they have a centralised source of vulnerability.
619  Economy / Economics / Re: Do you think Institutions secretly HODL Bitcoin? on: May 08, 2019, 10:04:58 AM


I am 100% sure that many people hold Bitcoin secretly. I am not sure that the whole institutions do it - there is no purpose. As for me, I do not hide that I hold the cryptocurrency.

Hedge funds will hold bitcoin - the purpose is to hedge against their other investments. Bitcoin seems uncorrelated with other assets so it's a good hedge to hold. If you have a certain amount of bitcoin in your portfolio and everything else is tanking but bitcoin rises slightly, it prevents the value of your portfolio dropping like a stone.
620  Economy / Economics / Re: Btc stability and volatility question? on: May 08, 2019, 12:14:15 AM
We still need cash not everything could be paid by crypto.
Even if we could use it to pay for anything do you really think that other would see it as a payment option?
Wake up not everyone in crypto wants to use it as a peer to peer payment they are only in here because of the price of BTC.
They are in crypto because they see's it as an investment they use it to gain profit so even if we could not everyone would use it on it's purpose.

Yes. And the debacle of Dec 2017 with the fees spiking set bitcoin back as regards adoption as a currency. Lots of retailers disabled bitcoin because it was no use allowing people to buy $20 items when the fee was $50 - $1000.

I think bitcoin is now a store of value rather than a currency. It might be an alt that takes the currency mantle in the future.
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