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601  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2013, 05:14:31 AM

"This is the first time the cryptocurrency has set a price record since the price reached $266, and then imploded, in April." <-- from the article. 

I think imploded is a bit strong there.

I think "imploded" is fair.

As fair as calling Mt.Gox "the largest Bitcoin exchange".
602  Economy / Speculation / Re: Remember remember the 5th of November. on: November 06, 2013, 05:10:00 AM
In China people celebrate the Bachelor's day at 11th of November, as "1" is the lonelinest number, and 11-11 has got four "1"s, fitting the Bitcoiners' stereotype I guess. Tongue
603  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2013, 04:59:19 AM
I think it would have been nice to have an animation anyway after the long Bitcoin winter.

So, time to switch to a different exchange for measuring highs?

we all know the bitcoin stamp is the real price, but we want to party anyway Smiley

Well, the stamp high was lower anyway. The China high, that's a bit more difficult... Cheesy
604  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2013, 04:43:48 AM
Broken!!
605  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2013, 04:41:34 AM
time seems to be nonlinear when we are close to the ATH
606  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2013, 04:35:40 AM
CHARGE!!!!
607  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 06, 2013, 03:39:27 AM
I haven't figured it out, so the riches are ready to deposit billions of dollars into our several obscure Bitcoin exchanges already? Otherwise what is driving the price higher?
Likely various exchanges open up bitcoin to a larger population.  I think there's very little actual bitcoins traded.  Most large holders aren't selling so the actual pool of traded coins is likely to be many magnitudes smaller then total cap.  I wonder if someone can run blockchain analyses on known exchange addresses and see how many coins circulate.  Or look at their sell book.  Currently bitcoin is like a stock.  There are heavy holders who aren't doing anything and then there is a much smaller float that new entrants have to chase.

The circulating bitcoins have to move ridiculously fast or a large portion of all bitcoins have to be in movement, otherwise it's hard to explain why Silk Road managed to process 9.5 million bitcoins in less than 3 years.

That is profound a few Bitcoin have quite a high velocity.
Am I correct in predicting if the velocity of money slows we get price deflation (Bitcoin increase in value)

Also time for an update - G v B and also a peek to peek comparison with gold.
(I'm on my phone so I'll just hint)

I think it's only when you can't figure out what the heck is going on in your economy that you have a real economy. Tongue
608  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 06, 2013, 03:11:28 AM
I haven't figured it out, so the riches are ready to deposit billions of dollars into our several obscure Bitcoin exchanges already? Otherwise what is driving the price higher?
Likely various exchanges open up bitcoin to a larger population.  I think there's very little actual bitcoins traded.  Most large holders aren't selling so the actual pool of traded coins is likely to be many magnitudes smaller then total cap.  I wonder if someone can run blockchain analyses on known exchange addresses and see how many coins circulate.  Or look at their sell book.  Currently bitcoin is like a stock.  There are heavy holders who aren't doing anything and then there is a much smaller float that new entrants have to chase.

The circulating bitcoins have to move ridiculously fast or a large portion of all bitcoins have to be in movement, otherwise it's hard to explain why Silk Road managed to process 9.5 million bitcoins in less than 3 years.
609  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 05, 2013, 04:23:11 PM
Wow, a one million dollar order! Shocked
610  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 05, 2013, 03:06:34 PM
I haven't figured it out, so the riches are ready to deposit billions of dollars into our several obscure Bitcoin exchanges already? Otherwise what is driving the price higher?
611  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 05, 2013, 01:07:39 PM
I can't believe I am here again watching Bitcoin price rising towards $266, everything about it seems to be magic.
612  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Majority is not Enough: Bitcoin Mining is Vulnerable on: November 05, 2013, 07:18:34 AM
The problem with this paper, I think, is that it uses a much stronger assumption than Satoshi's, that it's a strictly one malicious miner vs a bunch of honest/profit maximize miners scenario, implying the malicious miner miraculously knows every other miner to be honest, profit-maximizing, yet they know hardly anything about him, while in Satoshi's assumption, you basically mine against a number of peers which are unknown to you.

This makes a big difference from the game theory perspective: how can the malicious miner be sure that no one else is going to copy his strategy, forming a even bigger mining coalition, and force him to become his own strategy's victim and lose everything? He will have to think hard to devise a way to guarantee his success, so that nobody can defeat him in his own game, and work out the amount of hashing power he needs to acquire for such guarantee, after several days of work, he is finally done! And congratulations, he has just rediscovered the old and true "51% attack".
613  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 05, 2013, 05:59:31 AM
Wonder how many people on this thread/forum will join the non-labor force not too far from now. Wink
614  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 05, 2013, 05:06:41 AM
Up in the $10k range if not higher.
I will be incredibly surprised if we don't see $10k before the end of 2015, and not very surprised if we see it sometime in 2014.

$10k seems to be in agreement with the numbers I pull out of my ass, my logic goes like this: If Bitcoin is to be really successful, then we will have enough people willing to run a global payment infrastructure, at the current price, the total revenue these people are expected to obtain from mining bitcoins is about 25*144*220=$800k/day, or about $300M/year, now to estimate how much should it cost to run a real global payment system, let's look at Paypal, whose yearly revenue stands at about 5.6 billion dollars per year, which translates to about $4000-5000 per bitcoin, consider the next halving is about 2-3 years away and the bitcoin miners are expected to do a lot more, I would say $10k/bitcoin is a fair price.
615  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-07-30: wallstreetdaily - Three Currency Scams to Avoid at All Costs [FUD] on: November 05, 2013, 04:46:08 AM
I have never heard about wall street daily, is it even relevant?
616  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 05, 2013, 01:32:12 AM
Yeah, but there's a big difference expanding exponentially within the realm of still-doesn't-matter-much-globally and cracking through to major geo-political influence.
Think about what's been happening geopolitically in the last five years.

This isn't about the rise of Bitcoin as much as it is about the coordinated worldwide collapse of government money.

Large fiat holders around the world are looking for an exit strategy. Every time Bitcoin survives another near death experience, a few more of them decide it's worth taking some risk.

This kind of exponential growth starts off looking like a few people quietly making their way to the exits, and ends up looking like a stampede.

Ah, cause and effect.

Gold bugs have been chanting for many years about the collapse of government money worldwide, yet they have made very little inroad, and their gold itself is starting to collapse.

A hero is certainly a product of his time, yet the whole false boom and feel-good hobnobbing might have lasted considerably long if it were not for one man's determination to change everything.

617  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 04, 2013, 03:54:16 PM
It's a kinda surreal feeling to be able to rally for something that will benefit the whole human race greatly, and at the same time being rewarded greatly for it personally.

It must have been a long time since the two were compatible.
618  Economy / Speculation / Re: [BEGINNER WORKSHOP]: bitcoincharts + postgres = cool sql queries on: November 03, 2013, 02:19:51 PM
Wonder if you would be interested in estimating early adopters' reserves again? I have not finished downloading the blockchain yet. Sad

this thread could be interesting for you: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0

Yeah, that's cool, thanks.
619  Economy / Economics / Re: Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner on: November 03, 2013, 02:16:14 PM
So which distribution do you use to approximate rpietila? The Oct.26 one looks a bit Gaussian-skewed, while the Oct.22 seems very much like Pareto.

I guess the number of BTC0-0.1 people should be much larger, they are just not conspicuous enough.
620  Economy / Economics / Re: Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner on: November 03, 2013, 02:08:47 PM
And let me add that it was really hard to buy Bitcoin then. I wanted to but the threshold was so big I never bought any Bitcoins before 2012 (I mined a few though). So yes I bought after the bubble was deflated but not with huge amounts of money.

I'll testify to having less than 1k BTC today Sad

U kidding me? It was way easier to buy than now when you have to jump through all the regulation hoops.
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