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661  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: hardening brain-wallets with a useful blind proof of work on: October 16, 2013, 08:16:26 AM
Your brain is trained to memorize phrases, not random alphabet-number-symbol mix, it may indeed be the case that people can keep long series of english phrases in their memory longer than just some random strings, even if the length of the phrase series is much longer.
Who said anything about "random alphabet-number-symbol mix"? Alphabet-number-symbol mix is terrible cargo cult security and shouldn't be used. Go reread my posts. Good schemes for memorization use a mnemonic encoding that translates large integers to and from english text.

Though generally the properties that make phrases _easy_ to memorize are what actually produce the statistical properties that make them easy to predict.  But predictability is resolved by using a lossless encoding process with known entropy rather than a human source.

(And memorization still has a rather severe forgetting problem. Like people overestimate their ability to be random, we also over estimate the integrity of our memory. The public has very little experience handling keys which cannot ever be recovered if lost.)
Now since you were the one talking about the unreliability of common folks in generating dictionary passwords(like how can they not follow proper procedures), maybe you could also talk about how difficult it would be for people to use such mnemonic encodings?
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Brainwallet is mainly designed to solve the deniability problem,
I actually have IRC logs about the creation of the phrase brainwallet and brainwallet.org.  It was created by someone who introduction to the subject matter was his own efforts to crack peoples insecure keys, and he was irritated that he only found a few coins. No kidding. Don't try to glorify history to people who watched it first hand.

Now don't speculate on my intentions as it's unproductive, to my best knowledge(and I suspect a lot of people) it was Jon Matonis who came up with the idea of brainwallet, and he made it clear in the Forbes article that deniability was his major concern. If you have some first-hand secret history, it would be way more helpful if you could please just share it.

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... (1) Perhaps you should engage in less unlawful activity. Smiley

Hmm...you do realize there are places in the world where doing completely legal things can get you arrested right?

 
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(2) you're going to be rather disappointed when you realize how complete computer forensics is, hiding a key will probably be the least of your concerns. Smiley

Maybe, it would be interesting to see what FBI could do with Ross Ulbricht's bitcoins.


662  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 16, 2013, 05:09:51 AM
Nice rally! Can we now all finally agree that 2013 is much different from 2011? EletricMucus, you there? :p

Things are looking good.. $1000 may come sooner than we think! 2014 perhaps?

Unlikely to happen anytime soon, unless there is some fundamental landscape shift. Billions of dollars are not so easy to move through the veils of the dinosaur that is known as the banking system, and the dodgy exchanges we have now cannot be entrusted with such large amount of wealth.
663  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: hardening brain-wallets with a useful blind proof of work on: October 16, 2013, 04:37:44 AM
It's not that difficult to memorize five random phrases, which will contain quite a bit of entropy(assuming the phrases are really selected reandomly) .
Except they stake-my-life-on-it will NOT be selected randomly if you allow any user to operate under that procedure. They will be selected "randomly" as in that same way that "DUCK SPATULA" is random: Not very.

If instead a cryptographically strong random number of, say, at least 128 bits is generated it can be directly converted into a secure mnemonic phrase with just 12 words (or fewer, if you want to deal with a bigger dictionary).  This is probably way smaller than your "five random phrases" but by being ruthlessly specific about HOW its generated and what "random" means, it's really just another way of representing a 128 bit key, and it's perfectly fine to memorize that.

If your construction involves the human picking the words or phrases, as it does 99 out of 100 times someone says "brainwallet" then the actual entropy is much lower. Humans are poor sources of randomness, and telling them to be "random" actually seems to make them worse at it. Powerful statistical models are quite good at predicting what humans will do, and while they won't break every single instance they can break a surprisingly large number.

People who haven't worked on password cracking have this quaint notion of running a little dictionary file through a program... and this would have been accurate in 1990 for someone cracking at your unix-crypt uni shell account.  Today the tools are significantly better and have been refined through the disclosure of hundreds of millions of unencrypted passwords and the same kind of statistical tools that power speech recognition and automatic human language transaction. This statistical intelligence gets backed up by the brute force of GPU and FPGA clusters that can try hundreds of million or even billions of attempts per second.

I'd rather not see cracking weak bitcoin brainwallets turn into a viable industry for people buying up no-longer-competative mining fpgas for pennies on the dollar.

Your brain is trained to memorize phrases, not random alphabet-number-symbol mix, it may indeed be the case that people can keep long series of english phrases in their memory longer than just some random strings, even if the length of the phrase series is much longer.
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And whether it's secure to use really has to depend on how much money you will put in it, for pocket money it could be a viable alternative.
No, the security it depends more on how much all attackers eveywhere in the world are spending on setting up ultrafast hardware for brainwallet cracking. This number is likely to become very big: "just pocket money" has a way of growing through lazyness and the sum of all pocket money is great in any case. This is especially the case because the attackers can attack everyone with the same effort it would take to attack one person.

Viable alternative to what? Done right it is just a cryptographically strong number, so it's not really an alternative in that case, it just "is" the other thing.


Brainwallet is mainly designed to solve the deniability problem, so that people who could seize you disks can not use it as a proof against you, so it's a viable alternative to make a paperwallet and bury it under a oak tree. But yes, maybe it's not an alternative for storing pocket money.
664  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 16, 2013, 04:15:39 AM
seems the Chinese are the ones buying (and maybe the only ones left holding?) Smiley

Ha, better than holding government bonds.

you got that right.

remember the 3 mo T Bill chart i showed you the other day that showed the rate increase off the bottom to be 2000%.  here's today's version:



Thanks, I'll reconsider buying next time if they are going to add lifetime subscription to C-SPAN as a bonus, I heard their soap opera is good.
665  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 16, 2013, 04:06:57 AM
seems the Chinese are the ones buying (and maybe the only ones left holding?) Smiley

Ha, better than holding government bonds.
666  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: hardening brain-wallets with a useful blind proof of work on: October 16, 2013, 03:56:44 AM
Is there a BIP or standard for brain-wallets?  Would be interested to read...
No.

Practically everyone who knows about or cares about the BIP process loudly yells at people DO NOT USE BRAINWALLETS.  We've seen pretty concrete evidence that users are resistant to good advice in this space, and they are shocked when their favorite quotation is cracked and they lose their coins (But it was 60 characters long! I even added a special character! how is this possible?!),  the existing sites promoting this stuff won't use a KDF stronger than SHA256*1 because "users are stupid if they use weak passwords".


BIP∞: Brainwallets.

FOR GODS SAKE. DON'T DO IT.  YOU MAY THINK YOU ARE SMART ENOUGH. SO DID EVERYONE ELSE WHO GOT ROBBED. HUMANS ARE NOT A GOOD SOURCE OF ENTROPY.

YOU HAVE A SCHEME?  Pfft. THE SPACE OF ALL SCHEMES YOU'RE LIKELY TO HAVE PROBABLY ONLY HAS A FEW BITS OF ENTROPY. RANDOM PHRASE IN A BOOK? THERE ARE ONLY ABOUT 30 BITS OF SENTENCE SELECTION IN A LIBRARY.

OH NO. YOU ARE NOT LISTENING TO ME, ARE YOU?

OH CRAP. YOU THINK THAT "EIGHT CHARACTERS AND ONE FROM EACH CHARACTER CLASS" APPLIES HERE??  WEBSITE SECURITY MIGHT HAVE TO DEAL WITH 1000 ATTEMPTS PER SECOND, BUT SOME DUDE WITH A FPGA FARM IS PROBABLY PRECOMPUTING A BILLION BRAINWALLETS PER SECOND. JUST STOP.

NOOOOOOOOOOOO.

Well, now that you have no more Bitcoin I guess we don't have to worry about you using a brainwallet.

Cheers.


Of course, if by brainwallet you mean a key the user has memorized... it's not hard to memorize 128 bits mnemonic encoded. Though the risk of data loss is kinda stucky: People are really not all that used to data that cannot be recovered if lost.


It's not that difficult to memorize five random phrases, which will contain quite a bit of entropy(assuming the phrases are really selected reandomly) .

And whether it's secure to use really has to depend on how much money you will put in it, for pocket money it could be a viable alternative.

667  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 16, 2013, 03:47:18 AM
i haven't been looking into too many of the other threads but the reaction to this rally seems so subdued.  

where are all the rocket pictures?  how many sold into the SR dump?  not my subs, i can tell you that.

here you go:





People probably are already starting to have a itching feeling in their ass/spine, but the anachronistic banking system is keeping them in check.
668  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 16, 2013, 03:20:06 AM
If there are no catastrophic events, the "Internet kill switch" will be a moot issue within three years. There may still be the potential for continental separation, but methods exist for communication even at transoceanic distances without relying on cables or satellites. With geographically diversified mining resources, Bitcoin will be effectively unbreakable at that point.

That is when Bitcoin will start truly eroding gold's position as a monetary asset, after fiat currencies have been proven bettered by crypto.

Now you have brought up an interesting problem: can someone(e.g., superpowerful alphabet agencies) actually manage to exert control on the whole network by manipulating what's being sent through the cables? Maybe when we get all super-rich with bitcoins we need to construct our own submarine fiber systems, secured by quantum cryptography which is resistant to both sabotage and quantum computing.

Well that's the thing. He's talking about radio waves.

Not sure how manipulable those are.

You still have limited range and routers/repeaters.  That's where the network is vulnerable to manipulation.

Nature has provided us with the ionosphere, radio stations could be built with reasonable(comparable to a mining farm even if you use short-to-medium wavelength) cost and decentralization.
669  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 15, 2013, 12:17:28 PM
If there are no catastrophic events, the "Internet kill switch" will be a moot issue within three years. There may still be the potential for continental separation, but methods exist for communication even at transoceanic distances without relying on cables or satellites. With geographically diversified mining resources, Bitcoin will be effectively unbreakable at that point.

That is when Bitcoin will start truly eroding gold's position as a monetary asset, after fiat currencies have been proven bettered by crypto.

Now you have brought up an interesting problem: can someone(e.g., superpowerful alphabet agencies) actually manage to exert control on the whole network by manipulating what's being sent through the cables? Maybe when we get all super-rich with bitcoins we need to construct our own submarine fiber systems, secured by quantum cryptography which is resistant to both sabotage and quantum computing.

Well that's the thing. He's talking about radio waves.

Not sure how manipulable those are.

Yeah, I was thinking that building radio stations would be the more costing-save solution, compared with cables, assuming neutrinos remain unusable by then.
670  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 15, 2013, 11:54:34 AM
If there are no catastrophic events, the "Internet kill switch" will be a moot issue within three years. There may still be the potential for continental separation, but methods exist for communication even at transoceanic distances without relying on cables or satellites. With geographically diversified mining resources, Bitcoin will be effectively unbreakable at that point.

That is when Bitcoin will start truly eroding gold's position as a monetary asset, after fiat currencies have been proven bettered by crypto.

Now you have brought up an interesting problem: can someone(e.g., superpowerful alphabet agencies) actually manage to exert control on the whole network by manipulating what's being sent through the cables? Maybe when we get all super-rich with bitcoins we need to construct our own submarine fiber systems, secured by quantum cryptography which is resistant to both sabotage and quantum computing.
671  Other / Politics & Society / Re: How do you Bitcoin people like North Korea? on: October 15, 2013, 04:32:45 AM
This is an evil country.

No more words needed to describe it.

Just out of interest, how do you know?

If not, why do they forbid basically anyone of their people to leave the country on his own?
672  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 15, 2013, 01:01:14 AM

While I agree with out in principle, people would start starving in a matter of days while a private supply system and transportation chain would take probably years to develop.
...

I feel like that I am reading some Marxism textbooks, where capitalists are supposed to pour their milk stock into river when nobody is buying them, right? Tongue

It may or may not have been clear, but I don't see a command economy being a durable or desirable thing.  The communists have spend a century demonstrating why, and have done a smashing job of it.  I would be a temporary solution when the options are:

 - millions of people dead in the street and cities burnt to rubble.

 vs.

 - a temporary stop-gap measure occurring simultaneously with every effort made to jump-start a functional market economy.

Again, the key thing to me is that there is a robust and credible mechanism to ensure that said command economy lasts no longer than it is supported by a plurality of sane people.

Probably my single biggest complaints against Libertarian philosophy (and various others including most of the extremist religious groups) is the adherence and faith they have in some absolutist belief.  If one is unable or unwilling to entertain the notion of compromise and 'triage', then one lacks the flexibility to deal with real world problems effectively.  That is one of the main reasons I have close to zero confidence in anything espoused by my Libertarian brothers when it comes to problem solving.



I do not believe the corporations controlling large tracts of farmland, would refuse to seize control of the land and the agricultural products, there are many sensible reasons to do just the opposite(good reputation as people tend to have long memories when it comes to things like this, arrangement for a charity branch can also be made for tax purposes), not to say that when they need to sell significantly under the cost, there is not much money to be made anyway, leasing(for free) land to homeless farmers can not do much damage to them, and yeah, laws are changeable.

673  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-10-02 FBI Seize Deep Web Marketplace Silk Road, Arrest Owner on: October 14, 2013, 09:00:00 AM
It's nearly inevitable that Ross Ulbricht will have many imitators/wannabes, one of them will build the next Silk Road.

Think about it, 600K BTCs, or 80 f**king million dollars of pure profits in no more than 3 years, unseizeable even by FBI, how many can resist such temptations?
674  Other / Politics & Society / Re: How do you Bitcoin people like North Korea? on: October 14, 2013, 08:48:24 AM
You can, but you probably wouldn't want to.
675  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 14, 2013, 08:32:19 AM
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The only way to keep large numbers of urban people alive (in the absence of letters of credit for suppliers and what-not) would be a command economy managed by the state.

In fact this is completely incorrect. The best way to keep large numbers of urban people alive is a free market economy in food ... I'm not sure how many times people have to witness a N. Korea or similar socialist famine to be relieved of the misconception that command economies are somehow more effective at feeding large numbers of people.

The break down of the monetary system is a separate effect but don't try and saddle the farmers who are actually trying to feed people, with the same failed fucked-up economic wonk theories that fucked-up the financial system.

Edit: ... and if you ever happen to end up in situation where you notice authorities are trying to fix food prices or command control over food distribution it is well time past to get out ...

While I agree with out in principle, people would start starving in a matter of days while a private supply system and transportation chain would take probably years to develop.

We don't have 'farmers' in the US.  We have multiple square mile farms owned by huge corporations and run by two guys and some GPS enabled tractor-like-things.  And these things consume a lot of diesel I might note.  With a failed monetary system stripping 99.5% of people any money they might have it is unlikely that said corporations would desire to feed people out of the goodness of their hearts.  And would be illegal besides under current corporate law.

I believe that the more senior of our leadership understands what would need to be done, and we see reflections of this in things like the NSA spying apparatus and other such clues.

For my part, I am adamantly against such control measures, but it is not because I don't believe that martial law and a command economy have no legitimate role in extreme circumstances.  In my case it is because I see a great danger that such 'solutions' will persist for much longer than they need to.



I feel like that I am reading some Marxism textbooks, where capitalists are supposed to pour their milk stock into river when nobody is buying them, right? Tongue
676  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Welcome Armory users! on: October 14, 2013, 07:21:35 AM
Many links are already not working, time to update it a bit maybe?
677  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 14, 2013, 06:04:31 AM
BTW, I had a friend once who was a child in the Philippines when the Japanese were occupying the place.  She told me about her grandmother having a bamboo tube full of American coins (which were, of course, all 90% silver at the time.)  The family hauled ass out of the city and rode out the event in the country.  That chunk of bamboo got the whole family safely through the occupation in relative comfort.  It was an interesting story which I remember fondly.

I wish there were a safe have from which to watch this whole mess unfold.

Considering that almost every nation with access to the internet has some sort of Bitcoin user base, it is unlikely that the whole world wide Bitcoin network will go down all at once. Bitcoin "blackouts" will be isolated (whether planned or otherwise) and so it makes for a good "long term" store of wealth.

But as that story suggests, it's not going to do you any good if you need essential supplies in the moment.

Food/Medicine>ammo?>Precious Metals>Crypto

Sure, yet Cryptos may still remain useful, though not essential in the worst case scenario, if you still have faith in the world getting back to normal, yet not in keeping hold of your PMs from those with more ammos than you, your cryptos could remain completely invisible to them if you have taken proper measures, and become usable again someday in the future.
678  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 14, 2013, 05:59:10 AM
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Without an online connection, bitcoins are useless, and this is the only reason I'd suggest precious metals as a hedge.

I disagree.  Any positive balance entry in the blockchain will remain there until the crypto is broken (probably never) or until someone with the private key moves it.  There will be a large amount of confidence that the system will re-start if it ever halts completely at all.  It is exceedingly unlikely that any event will bring us back to the stone age...at least world-wide and indefinitely.  So, a representation in the blockchain is not 'useless' when it comes to long-term wealth preservation.

That depends on if(a big if) the whole network shuts down gracefully, if you somehow have isolated regional networks running independently after the global connections stop functioning, you will have a big mess(potentially intractable) after things get back to normal.

I do not believe so.

It's a simple and mechanical 'longest chain' issue at the end of the day.  If geo regions are separated, one is going to win out when they re-join.  As long as the TPS remains low (aka, block size remains reasonable), people will be able to figure out how to join regions fairly quickly, and a sub-set of them will have the balls to do so.

Further, as long as one does not sign transactions there is no danger of one's coins being spent on any chain.  If spends are attempted, I suppose that there may be some danger of a re-play attack but I am not familiar enough with the time-stamping and such to speak to that.  In any event, a prudent and technically savvy person will defer any block chain activity at all until things settle down if they have any choice in the matter.  Which is why having some other options is not a bad idea.

It is human nature to go schismatic and create their own power base, a global network outage just provide them with the motivation and conditions to do so, just imagine how many altcoin creators would want to go down that path, things will go political pretty quickly, and even if everything would come together in the end, it would be at the expense of those betting on the wrong chains(shorter ones), at that stage, many would prefer to just keep the network splitted to limit their losses.

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Now I would agree that things could get so bad that free access to the global internet without significant controls could easily occur, and probably almost anywhere.  And they could last for some time.  For that reason I think it prudent to have a more stone-age answer to the question of where the next meal might come from.  PM's seem to me to fit the bill.

The reason why I find PMs as a hedge unattractive, is that central banks have stockpiled much more of them then we did, now guess what would they do with their PM reserves if its price were to skyrocket as a consequence of people dumping fiats.


I don't think that what central banks do or don't do will amount to a hill of beans.  In a bad scenario all I will be caring about is whether I can get a wiener pig from the guy down the road or some replacement buckshot for my shotgun.  I can almost guarantee that a few junk silver quarters will be more effective than some BTC if/when the shit actually hits the fan in a real way.

BTW, I had a friend once who was a child in the Philippines when the Japanese were occupying the place.  She told me about her grandmother having a bamboo tube full of American coins (which were, of course, all 90% silver at the time.)  The family hauled ass out of the city and rode out the event in the country.  That chunk of bamboo got the whole family safely through the occupation in relative comfort.  It was an interesting story which I remember fondly.



Well, maybe I just didn't make it out clearly: I meant "hedge" purely in the "hedge investment" sense, which should be managed separately from your lunch money, for which extra measures must be taken to ensure its safety.  And let's not forget that even in a bad scenario the governments may still have a monopoly on legal violence, and there are not too many PM mines in this world for them to deploy a few guards to.

And I doubt your Filipino friend had gone to the lowest level of anachronistic pandemonium, in that case mobs will probably just break into  their residence to grab their PM coins.
679  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 14, 2013, 04:49:54 AM
...
Without an online connection, bitcoins are useless, and this is the only reason I'd suggest precious metals as a hedge.

I disagree.  Any positive balance entry in the blockchain will remain there until the crypto is broken (probably never) or until someone with the private key moves it.  There will be a large amount of confidence that the system will re-start if it ever halts completely at all.  It is exceedingly unlikely that any event will bring us back to the stone age...at least world-wide and indefinitely.  So, a representation in the blockchain is not 'useless' when it comes to long-term wealth preservation.

Now I would agree that things could get so bad that free access to the global internet without significant controls could easily occur, and probably almost anywhere.  And they could last for some time.  For that reason I think it prudent to have a more stone-age answer to the question of where the next meal might come from.  PM's seem to me to fit the bill.



That depends on if(a big if) the whole network shuts down gracefully, if you somehow have isolated regional networks running independently after the global connections stop functioning, you will have a big mess(potentially intractable) after things get back to normal.

The reason why I find PMs as a hedge unattractive, is that central banks have stockpiled much more of them then everyone else combined, now guess what would they do with their PM reserves if its price were to skyrocket as a consequence of people dumping fiats.

680  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 14, 2013, 03:14:24 AM
It's interesting because in '11-'12 there were multiple occasions in which the "last minute deal" saved the day. But in '13 there have been two expectations of last-minute deals that didn't pan out: Sequester and "Shutdown." OTOH, they do seem to be "weaning" the market to trade on fundamentals even less than they have been. There's been some back-and-forth. For instance, months after the noteworthy not-last-minute-deal sequester, there was the classic UNtaper announcement (didn't surprise me.) So these not-last-minute-deals and this un-taper were perhaps ways to shake the market just a little bit to get it used to "things to come."

So I wouldn't be surprised if there was a "last minute deal" for the default that broke the 2013 trend of "expected last minute deal not reached." Remember the only thing that's even remotely important these days is ATHs in the stock market despite poor economic data.

A US government default will wake a lot of people who would never dream of entering the stock market up from their slumbers, the whole modern world was built around the faith in the U.S.
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