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681  Economy / Economics / Re: List of useful materials on economics on: April 29, 2019, 10:22:22 AM

Also, Taleb's Black Swan is important to understand possible "tail risks" or extreme events. These are very common in crypto as we see massive market swings quite often.

Yaleb's book "Fooled by Randomness" is also a cracking read. So many people see patterns in random events and then come a cropper.

His book "Antifragile" is also worth a read. Antifragile things survive no matter what the circumstances and it's interesting to look at bitcoin and the various altcoins to see which has the most antifragile characteristics.
682  Economy / Economics / Re: Do you need cash for everyday use? on: April 29, 2019, 09:43:38 AM
I am yet to see a market place that accepts cryptocurrency in exchange for the purchase of goods and services.
So making cash available for users who one way or the other wants to purchase with their Digital assets direct is a welcomed development.
I think it would encourage user participation.


Here you go: Open Bazaar

https://openbazaar.org/

It's like an amazon marketplace but you pay for everything with cryptocurrency. They accept bitcoin, bitcoincash, zcash and litecoin:

https://openbazaar.org/blog/how-to-spend-bitcoin-and-other-cryptocurrencies-on-openbazaar/

Marketplaces like that would grow if people used them. Unfortunately everyone is of the mindset that they should convert to cash and shop in the traditional manner.
683  Economy / Economics / Re: Fear & Greed Index, the Inspiration for Trading FOT on: April 29, 2019, 09:06:17 AM
This sounds easy in theory, but hard on practice. Take this forum as example - it's always permabullish on Bitcoin, for every comment that tries to make a somewhat educated prediction there are dozens of comments saying "bitcoin will rise a lot, it's a good project". Similarly, you can't just listen to what the mainstream media are saying, because they all hate and don't understand Bitcoin and always say that it is dying, regardless of what is happening with the price. If you really want to know investor's mood, you have to come up with some sort of scientific measurement, like the ones that sociologists do, and that would probably cost a lot.

If you like trading, you are better off looking at the bitcoinmarkets subreddit:


https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/

They have a daily trading discussion thread and they delete posts that are emotional rather than reasoned. So they have a lot of TA posts, a few fundamental analysis posts, but are thankfully free of people just pumping or pushing fear stories.
684  Economy / Economics / Re: Venezuela hit by new nationwide powercut for more than three days on: April 28, 2019, 09:53:29 PM
Yes, this is bad to Venezuela economy not only in cryptocurrency but their economy itself. Usually the industrial sectors are earning or will be productive through the use of machineries run by an electricity. This is the same with cryptocurrency especially if in their are it is widely known. This may decrease crypto market a little bit but it could not compromise the market because no one could sell crypto without power to run their gadgets.

Electricity is essential to all industries. As one of my professor said during college days that electricity is the blood of industry.

The World's Most Miserable Economy Has Seven-Figure Inflation

Unfortunately a decade and a half of "socialism" got rid of most of the national production, 90%+ stopped, went broke or fled the country. Nobody wants to invest in a country where the gov can seize your assets on a whim, and the State itself doesn't produce anything but corruption.

Electricity failing due to neglect on the State electric company, was just the icing on the cake. In the same situation are all basic services, which where all nationalized during Chávez and inherited by Maduro the inept.

It is deeply ironic that a "socialist" gov gives gasoline away for free, but provides no healthcare, no education, not even personal security, nothing. But unlike in a free market economy, you can't find a private solution either...

Are you able to do your own electricity generation? For example solar panels on your roof.

In the UK and USA, having solar panels and generating your own electricity (and selling the excess back to the grid) is quite common. It decentralises electricity generation and makes it less likely a bad actor can harm the entire country by hacking the grid.
685  Economy / Economics / Re: The Big Blockchain Lie (by Roubini) on: April 28, 2019, 08:52:37 PM
Blockchain has been heralded as a potential panacea for everything from poverty and famine to cancer. In fact, it is the most overhyped – and least useful – technology in human history.


[/quote]

The only people who have made those claims are a few mainstream newspaper articles written by journalists who a) don't understand the tech and b) are sensationalising for clickbait.

Roubini unfortunately gets all his info from mainstream journalism, even though he should know better.

Crypto has a future, it's come a long way in ten years. Bitcoin might not be the coin that "wins" but crytocurrency is here to stay.
686  Economy / Economics / Re: Opinions about the emergence of new Coins on: April 28, 2019, 12:32:12 PM
Honestly, I don't trust the existence of new coins these days. Based on my experience, they will just bloom for days but fades in just a short period of time. I want to get rid of shitcoins so I would only stick to well-established coins. I wish that the market would do coin cleansing to remove all the shitcoins listed.

With that mindset you miss out the potential 100x coins that are out there.  Its annoying when people are calling literally everything a shitcoin.  Bitcoin should be the bulk of your investment in crypto but don't be afraid to risk some on these new projects with a promising future.

I remember when Ether launched and everyone thought it was a shitcoin and passed up the opportunity to buy it for a few cents. And remember that Doge was supposed to be a joke from the start but it's still going strong five years later because it's so easy to use as an actual currency (unlike bitcoin).

It's worth putting a dollar into every coin and seeing what happens.
687  Economy / Economics / Re: Terrifying $243 Trillion Global Debt Bomb is a Disaster Only Bitcoin Can Fix on: April 28, 2019, 11:55:49 AM
Sometimes I wonder if the simplest solution to the worldwide debt isn't to just reset the finance system and then reshape fully how we use the money. Maybe that's what the Illuminati are trying to do and get Bitcoin as the worldwide currency Tongue  The IlluminatiPost Economist sent a subliminal message 3 months ago predicting a sad year for the finance in 2019. Maybe the crash we're waiting...

80% of Japanese govt debt is actually held by the Bank of Japan, purchased with printed money.

They won't "wipe out" the debt, but they'll basically turn it into a perpetual that never needs to be paid back apart from interest. And the interest payments on it are something stupid like 0.1%.

Pretty sure the ECB is going to do the same thing with the govt debt they've bought. They won't officially wipe it out, they'll just declare it never needs to be redeemed by tax money.
688  Economy / Economics / Re: Do you think Institutions secretly HODL Bitcoin? on: April 28, 2019, 11:21:50 AM


Big financial institutions have to report on their investments, and I don't think they would legally be able to keep it a secret if they were investing in bitcoin.  I don't think their investors would be very happy if they did in the event that bitcoin crashed and the institution lost a lot of money. 



Pension funds and regulated funds are not allowed to hold bitcoin or any cryotocurrency. They can only hold approved assets.

However hedge funds can do what they want, and I suspect as part of their hedging and diversification strategy they hold some bitcoin, especially as it is not correlated with other assets.
689  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin must come back to its original use - currency ! on: April 28, 2019, 10:43:27 AM
Yes, unfortunately, today Bitcoin is used more as an investment value, and not as a currency. There are many reasons for this and above all - the desire of the majority of people to extract the maximum profit during the long-term storage period, as well as the slow legalization of Bitcoin by the states, as a result of which the infrastructure for using Bitcoin as a means of payment is developing very poorly.
It seems that this situation will not change in the near future.

It's actually rational behaviour.

Imagine you had $20,000 worth of gold coins and $20,000 in dollar bills. Which would you spend first? The dollar bills of course, because historically they've lost their value over time against gold. Basically you lose nothing by spending the dollar bills first and then the gold, and you potentially gain a lot.

Now consider if you had $20,000 in bitcoin and $20,000 worth of doge. You'd spend the doge first and keep the bitcoin, because again, doges sometimes drops against bitcoin and if you had to bet which would survive it would be bitcoin.
690  Economy / Economics / Re: A short market analysis of Lending Market by our team on: April 28, 2019, 10:15:58 AM
Depends on the interest charges on both systems.
I think the P2P should offer competitive interest rates compare with banks to be more attractive.

I'm not sure P2P is a magical bullet. Banks have been in business a long time, and while they obviously can make mistakes they usual have rather strong protection against fraud and have large departments of staff that are dedicated to risk management. What you'll tend to find is people that have a hard time borrowing money from a bank (maybe because they have not paid it back in the past) will try to borrow via P2P lending services. Ultimately these high risk borrowers will default on the debt to private lenders. China is having a bit of a P2P lending crisis at the moment

Exactly this. P2P lending and crypto lending is mostly subprime, which is why the interest rates are much higher and the defaults are much higher too.
691  Economy / Economics / Re: Trump security adviser unveils new U.S. sanctions to pressure Cuba, Venezuela on: April 28, 2019, 09:53:44 AM
These sanctions are never going to work. Look at North Korea. Sanctions have been in place for many years. Did Kim Jong Un destroyed his nuclear stockpile? Same with Venezuela. Despite all the sanctions and embargoes, has Maduro been forced to step down? And the less talked about Cuba that better. The American policy has been a gigantic failure for many decades.

North Korea is helped by China.

Venezuela is helped by both Russia and China - but both will extract a price. Nobody helps for free. Maduro is using Venezuela's gold reserves to buy stuff from Russia. The question is, will Russia accept bitcoin instead? Depends on the price and volatility.
692  Economy / Economics / Re: Why is the world economy is sliding down? And how bitcoin may help it? on: April 28, 2019, 12:31:13 AM
Why is the world economy is sliding down, a bit reminder to  2008 when the world economy is in freefall, The shock waves from the collapse of Lehman Brothers maybe on of the main factors.. The economic indicators - trade, industrial production, unemployment - are comparable to the early stages of the Great Depression in the early 1930s.
My point is, how bitcoin could take place to helps the Economics rise again or it would be an additional threat to economy stabilty ??

The world economy slowing has to do with reduced consumption in Europe and Asia. Part of that is down to the high unemployment in those areas.

Part of it is down to the traditional consumers not buying much and saving instead: Brits are saving to prepare for Brexit and Americans are saving due to being overburderned with debt. Everywhere that relied on these places to overspend are now struggling.

IMO changing currency to bitcoin won't make a smidgen of difference. What needs to happen is Europe and Asia become confident and start to spend a little more on restaurants and the small luxuries that make up the modern economy.
693  Economy / Economics / Re: Hedge funds with public ROI? on: April 27, 2019, 11:52:38 PM
I’ve heard about several good hedge funds in general, including Pantera Capital and Bit Spread, however recently came across Templar Fund and what I really liked was how they make all of their trading reports public even before registering, like you can see the ROI for every 10 days. Does anyone know any other hedge funds that do this? If so i’d love to explore them as well.

A number of hedge funds make their reports public, mainly because they want retail investors to follow their picks.

It's important to note that prior to publishing they have already purchased the shares they are recommending, the purpose of the disclosure is to persuade others to pile in and help make the picks profitable. In that sense they arn't much different from pump-n-dump schemes where those touting a pump have already bought cheap.
694  Economy / Economics / Re: Using bitpay creditcard for paying everything in BTC without fiat-money? on: April 27, 2019, 11:34:15 PM
As of now only around fifty countries in the world has the access to bitpay. The bitpay service is the best in its type, and it has been supporting from small scale to large scale transactions. Initially the wallet is supposed to be filled and can be used with the physical bitpay card. They also take a 1% fee, so I don't find the difference between the common credit/debit cards.

It isn't that great. It works with QR codes and certain wallets, but it's pretty much impossible to use direct addresses with it, which means it's imposible to send money from an exchange directly to a client using bitpay. I'm pretty sure this has been the reason their adoption has not been great. But perhaps they encountered logistical difficulties using plain addresses from one wallet to another.
695  Economy / Economics / Re: A Crypto Blessing: China’s Plan to Ban Bitcoin Mining Will Work Wonders on: April 27, 2019, 09:19:36 PM
They're trying to discourage everything to do with bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general because they can't control it's price.

According to the following, they want to issue a cryptocurrency version of the renmimbi:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/official-chinese-currency-renminbi-to-become-cryptocurrency-expert-says

Quote
Donald Tapscott, executive chairman of the Blockchain Research Institute,  stated that the official Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), will become a cryptocurrency, in an interview with Bloomberg on April 17.

In the interview, Tapscott revealed that he had recently been at a meeting with the vice-chairman of the Communist Party in China, who recalled that President Xi Jinping thinks that blockchain is one of the most important technologies for the future of the country.

Speaking about the government’s ban on cryptocurrency exchanges, Tapscott outlined that China is considering to ban cryptocurrency mining as well, and added:

    “It’s not really necessary to do that [to ban exchanges and mining] because in 20 years we are not going to be using bitcoin in China. Chinese people will use the RMB, only the RMB will become a cryptocurrency. The central bank of China will turn it into a digital currency.”
696  Economy / Economics / Re: Widening Russia Money Laundering Scandal Hits European Banks on: April 27, 2019, 08:27:57 PM


I can only imagine how excited Jamie Dimon would be if all of this laundering had been done via bitcoin/crypto rather than our glorious and infallible banking institutions, which we all know are immune to money laundering due to them being "regulated".



I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere along the line Goldman, JP Morgan and others were middlemen/facilitators of this. They have form for being the middlemen in all number of dodgy schemes. When they protest about bitcoin, they protest too much.
697  Economy / Economics / Re: Barclays: ‘Facebook Coin’ to bring in $19 billion by 2021 on: April 27, 2019, 07:45:45 PM
A centralized token run by a corporation. How is this different from buying an ad voucher from Facebook?

It's essentially a clever way to get cheap funding from those who buy the initial launch in cash.

It isn't. Also, Facebook is under increasing pressure from regulators everywhere due to the crap they host on their platform. So I doubt very much that a coin they issued would be successful. It's not like people trust them or anything.
698  Economy / Economics / Re: Can Bitcoin really stabilize any country's economy level? on: April 27, 2019, 07:06:52 PM
Interestingly, we now have a real life test case in the form of Argentina:

https://www.coindesk.com/crypto-startups-in-argentina-inflation-bitcoin

Quote
Argentinian usage of the peer-to-peer exchange LocalBitcoins hit an all-time high of 9.4 million Argentine pesos in weekly volume in December 2018. Despite broader market dips, this growth has continued to surge in 2019 at a rate that dwarfs anything witnessed during the 2017 token boom, when the peak was 5.7 million Argentine pesos. That figure would currently represent a slow week in Argentina’s 2019 P2P market.

None of this is to say that Argentinian companies haven’t felt the strain of crypto volatility, but local demand and interest remains steady. Plus, a recent influx of Venezuelan immigrants has infused Buenos Aires with underbanked communities that need financial tools and remittance services.

...bitcoin exchange CMO Manuel Beaudroit of Bitex told CoinDesk his company has seen increasing demand in 2019 for bitcoin-related services from Argentinian banks and brokerage firms.

As revealed exclusively to CoinDesk, Bitex will court such institutional customers across the region by launching bitcoin custody services in March.

Beaudroit said:

    “They are interested in offering their clients the ability to do cross-border payments and remittances with Bitex’s services.”

The bitcoin startup recently helped facilitate a purchase of pesticides and agricultural products by the government of Paraguay from Argentina, settling in bitcoin.

699  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin is urgent. Argentina is printing free money too on: April 27, 2019, 04:53:21 PM


Here is the a short article regarding this: https://www.dlacalle.com/en/five-reasons-for-the-weakness-of-the-argentine-economy/ .

Simply said on the article, "Argentina has been, for many years, a country with the potential of a developed economy and a monetary policy of a third-world country." Printing free money for their own purpose causes the value of their money to reduce, making it's ability to buy goods lesser which causes inflation. Printing too much money without even equivalent economic activity or growth will lead to inflation.

It's sad what has happened to Argentina. At the start of the 20th century they used to be as wealthy as the Americans. In the last 100 years, the Americans got way richer and emerged as the main superpower while the Argentinians descended into one of the poorest places on earth. There are African and South-East Asian countries wealthier than Argentina now.

It's a massive warning about how things can deteriorate if you have bad government.
700  Economy / Economics / Re: How Bitcoin Turns Wasted Energy Into Magical Internet Money on: April 27, 2019, 03:30:25 PM
Unfortunately lots of the eco-warriors are claiming that cryptocurrency mining is destroying the planet because of the energy it uses. As though traditional banking and printing of cash doesn't use energy.

I guess things will improve once coal power stations are closed down and people can no longer argue that mining causes co2 emissions.
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